Federal Election Polls

[TTM]

They've been eating into Conservative numbers the past several days across the country.

Yes, the soft Conservative vote. I would be surprised if it continues much further--perhaps to the low thirties. I don't think they can cut too far into the Conservatives any more than that, given that the NDP is seen by many Conservatives as too far left. Their best bet is if Conservative voters stay home.

[Battletoads]

Don't count your chickens yet. Harper is still polling in the mid thirties, with a base support of probably around 30%. If the NDP is not able to eat into the Conservative numbers, there will still be a strong Conservative minority, esp. due to vote splitting in Ontario. And remember, something like 2 million people voted, before the "Orange Surge".

High voter turnout is bad for the cons.

To paraphrase Harper 'We don't need more votes, they need fewer'

[ninjandrew]

Any Canadian that would vote for a socialist government is really stupid! The handouts are really appealing to the lazy crowd that votes socialist.70 billion promised to you so far.

Is laziness a prerequisite to be poverty stricken / vote NDP?

That was a pretty short sighted and judgmental comment.

[TTM]

no the surge had already begun and high turnouts usually go in favour of the oppositon and I believe this early turnout set a record...

and I'm not so sure about 30% base I think the pre merge PC members are different than harper reform base which would be about 15%...

But the PC voters still view themselves as largely right wing. If it was the Liberals surging I would say the PC base was mid twenties. With the NDP, I think the best they can reduce the Conservatives to is around 30%.

Edited April 28, 2011 by TTM

[wyly]

But the PC voters still view themselves as largely right wing. If it was the Liberals surging I would say the PC base was mid twenties. With the NDP, I think the best they can reduce the Conservatives to is around 30%.

that's a good point and I'd agree that a surging liberals would benefit more from old PC voters but still there are no socially Progressives in Harpers Reform base and some of those PC's will leave for the NDP...so let's split the difference and say Harper has a "ndp" proof base of 23-24%... Edited April 28, 2011 by wyly

[nittanylionstorm07]

Yes, the soft Conservative vote. I would be surprised if it continues much further--perhaps to the low thirties. I don't think they can cut too far into the Conservatives any more than that, given that the NDP is seen by many Conservatives as too far left. Their best bet is if Conservative voters stay home.

That's all they need to have a plurality in the national popular vote.

[ninjandrew]

Yes, the soft Conservative vote. I would be surprised if it continues much further--perhaps to the low thirties. I don't think they can cut too far into the Conservatives any more than that, given that the NDP is seen by many Conservatives as too far left. Their best bet is if Conservative voters stay home.

Or for Liberal voters to continue changing their minds. The Liberals have been steadily going down the last few days.

Nanos graph

[wyly]

Or for Liberal voters to continue changing their minds. The Liberals have been steadily going down the last few days.

Nanos graph

whether they stay home on may 2 or switch to the ndp may be significant...

[Delta66]

Can someone explain to me what happened? I've been following the polls and it's showing that the NDP is bound to be the official opposition. Why? What happened? Did I miss something? Why is the NDP doing so well? Why are the Liberals and the Bloc collapsing?

[Keepitsimple]

Can someone explain to me what happened? I've been following the polls and it's showing that the NDP is bound to be the official opposition. Why? What happened? Did I miss something? Why is the NDP doing so well? Why are the Liberals and the Bloc collapsing?

Do your homework. Read through the topics and threads. That's what this forum is for - to give you an idea of what's going on - from a variety of perspectives.

[Delta66]

Do your homework. Read through the topics and threads. That's what this forum is for - to give you an idea of what's going on - from a variety of perspectives.

You want me to read through 114 pages?

[Keepitsimple]

You want me to read through 114 pages?

OK.....here's what happened. The Conservatives have a solid base of 35% of voters and have been tryiung to get closer to 40%. The Liberal voter base has been softening ever since Adscam. When Dion took over, it softened up some more. When Ignatieff came aboard there was hope.....but the Emporor had no Clothes so the base softened some more and settled at 25%. The Liberals tried to move to the Left to get some NDP votes....showing yet again that they stood for nothing. Jumpin' Jack had a good performance in the debate (Ignatieff's attendance was a killer). Jack had success in Quebec because as can now be seen, the BLOC vote base was soft - they were tired of 20 years of Soveriegnty arguments that got them nowhere. Quebecers WANTED to get closer to a Federalist alternative and have moved to Jack because in reality, the BLOC and the NDP are socialist parties. As Jack caught fire, Liberals started to jump ship to the NDP. The last nail in the Liberal coffin will be the last of the center/center right Liberals abandoning ship for the Conservatives. There you have it.

[wyly]

Can someone explain to me what happened? I've been following the polls and it's showing that the NDP is bound to be the official opposition. Why? What happened? Did I miss something? Why is the NDP doing so well? Why are the Liberals and the Bloc collapsing?

a summation in IMO...

65% of the population hate harper and his right wing politics...so the options are let this right wing neo-con minority impose it's will on the majority indefinitely or merge the left wing parties or a coalition government or chose a liberal government or NDP government...the liberals have a scandal/corrupt past the NDP have not..the NDP appeal to the left leaning quebec vote as the bloc has become somewhat redundant as a new generation of quebecers are not as separatist in nature as their parents...

the parties involved NDP and Liberal could not make an agreement on coalition or merge so the population lead by the youth vote has made the decision for them and they appear to have chosen the NDP, the rest of us are along for the ride...

[ninjandrew]

OK.....here's what happened. The Conservatives have a solid base of 35% of voters and have been tryiung to get closer to 40%. The Liberal voter base has been softening ever since Adscam. When Dion took over, it softened up some more. When Ignatieff came aboard there was hope.....but the Emporor had no Clothes so the base softened some more and settled at 25%. The Liberals tried to move to the Left to get some NDP votes....showing yet again that they stood for nothing. Jumpin' Jack had a good performance in the debate (Ignatieff's attendance was a killer). Jack had success in Quebec because as can now be seen, the BLOC vote base was soft - they were tired of 20 years of Soveriegnty arguments that got them nowhere. Quebecers WANTED to get closer to a Federalist alternative and have moved to Jack because in reality, the BLOC and the NDP are socialist parties. As Jack caught fire, Liberals started to jump ship to the NDP. The last nail in the Liberal coffin will be the last of the center/center right Liberals abandoning ship for the Conservatives. There you have it.

Thank you keepitsimple. Thank you for helping us to keep it simple.

[Guest Derek L]

Don't count your chickens yet. Harper is still polling in the mid thirties, with a base support of probably around 30%. If the NDP is not able to eat into the Conservative numbers, there will still be a strong Conservative minority, esp. due to vote splitting in Ontario. And remember, something like 2 million people voted, before the "Orange Surge".

I think the key, and as far as I know hasn't really been talked about in the media, aside from the NDP surge, is the increase of undecided voters, roughly from ~8% to 15%.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-8sNL7YfF_D8/TbiI2UPh3xI/AAAAAAAAE94/Vjvq8Z6NpNs/s1600/Canada+Polls.PNG

Are these people former Liberals? Why is this number increasing faster then the NDP? Is this a result of the orange wave? Are these people waiting for the large media outlets endorsments? Are they starting worry, like the TSX?

These ~15% undecided, in my view, are the King makers.

[Harry]

I think that supposed Conservative solid base of 35% is going to be sorely tested this election - we could be looking at perhaps 30% support for Harper by the time Monday evening rolls around. Harper is quite disliked, and a lot of voters vote based on the leader. Right now the polls are showing a drop for Harper and a continuing surge for Layton. The Conservatives have already given up any hope for a majority as reported on CTV and are now in crisis wondering if they will even get a minority.

OK.....here's what happened. The Conservatives have a solid base of 35% of voters and have been tryiung to get closer to 40%. The Liberal voter base has been softening ever since Adscam. When Dion took over, it softened up some more. When Ignatieff came aboard there was hope.....but the Emporor had no Clothes so the base softened some more and settled at 25%. The Liberals tried to move to the Left to get some NDP votes....showing yet again that they stood for nothing. Jumpin' Jack had a good performance in the debate (Ignatieff's attendance was a killer). Jack had success in Quebec because as can now be seen, the BLOC vote base was soft - they were tired of 20 years of Soveriegnty arguments that got them nowhere. Quebecers WANTED to get closer to a Federalist alternative and have moved to Jack because in reality, the BLOC and the NDP are socialist parties. As Jack caught fire, Liberals started to jump ship to the NDP. The last nail in the Liberal coffin will be the last of the center/center right Liberals abandoning ship for the Conservatives. There you have it.

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[nittanylionstorm07]

I hope some more polls come out soon... the longer it takes, and the closer we get to election, the antsier I get...

[ToadBrother]

OK.....here's what happened. The Conservatives have a solid base of 35% of voters and have been tryiung to get closer to 40%. The Liberal voter base has been softening ever since Adscam. When Dion took over, it softened up some more. When Ignatieff came aboard there was hope.....but the Emporor had no Clothes so the base softened some more and settled at 25%. The Liberals tried to move to the Left to get some NDP votes....showing yet again that they stood for nothing. Jumpin' Jack had a good performance in the debate (Ignatieff's attendance was a killer). Jack had success in Quebec because as can now be seen, the BLOC vote base was soft - they were tired of 20 years of Soveriegnty arguments that got them nowhere. Quebecers WANTED to get closer to a Federalist alternative and have moved to Jack because in reality, the BLOC and the NDP are socialist parties. As Jack caught fire, Liberals started to jump ship to the NDP. The last nail in the Liberal coffin will be the last of the center/center right Liberals abandoning ship for the Conservatives. There you have it.

I tend to agree with your assessment. I think in large part the message may have been received in Quebec that whatever configuration future governments take (coalitions, vote agreements, whatever), it is well nigh politically impossible for any Federalist party to do business with the Bloc, so continued support in this direction effectively removes much of Quebec from any potential coalitions. The Liberal brand may very well be permanently tainted in Quebec, the Tories do have policies, whether they like it or not, that do not play well in Quebec (I think, for instance, Afghanistan and Libya are far larger issues inside Quebec than elsewhere), so the NDP get the soft nationalist support almost by default.

I think the Liberals have to be very concerned, not just with May 2nd, but with what comes after it. I've been giving a lot of thought to this over the last couple of days, in light of the fact that it's unlikely that a majority is forthcoming for anyone. If the trend continues, the Liberals are going to be a rump, but possibly with enough seats to either make the NDP or the Tories' day. For the Liberals any alliance is incredibly dangerous, because it's a party that straddles the political centre, tending in any direction could mean those on the other side say "to hell with it" and simply move towards the party that is their ideological neighbor. And yet, not forming an alliance and forcing who ever forms the next government carries its own risk, in that the Liberals, for the first time, would be the third party, no longer enjoying the perks of the Official Opposition, and just as importantly not having they voice they've had. They could keep their independence, but render themselves permanently the third party in the process.

A lot of this depends on the depth of the NDP penetration. If this is just a flirtation, then the Liberals need to rebuild, but structurally, they're still in the game. But if Layton can make himself a credible Opposition leader, or possibly, depending on how things fall out after the election in May, an actual Prime Minister, then the hill may just be to steep to climb, and the Liberals will have to ask themselves some very hard questions about what they're role may be. But they've got the weight of a century of dominance behind them, and soul-searching questions like the conservative movement had to do a decade ago may be beyond their grasp.

[mikedavid00]

These ~15% undecided, in my view, are the King makers.

I call undecided voters - uneducated voters.

[mikedavid00]

These ~15% undecided, in my view, are the King makers.

I call undecided voters - 'uneducated voters'.

I call uneducated voters - 'the far left'.

[Guest Derek L]

I call undecided voters - 'uneducated voters'.

I call uneducated voters - 'the far left'.

No, they tend to be A-political centrists.

[ToadBrother]

No, they tend to be A-political centrists.

In mikedavid00's world, that makes them the far left.

[wyly]

I hope some more polls come out soon... the longer it takes, and the closer we get to election, the antsier I get...

you're quite likely the only american who actually cares, a little strange but ok...

[Harry]

NDP flirtation - I don't think so. The big question people are asking now is how much further are the Conservatives going to drop.

NDP's rise continues, Conservative lead shrinks: poll

The New Democrats continue to experience a spike in support and have climbed to within just six percentage points of the frontrunner Conservatives, according to new national poll numbers released Thursday.

The NDP is now solidly in second place, with the support of 30.4 per cent of those polled by Nanos Research over April 24, 26 and 27.

The Conservatives still lead but with just 36.6 per cent support -- the thinnest their lead has been since the campaign began

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20110428/election-poll-ndp-leads-110428/20110428?s_name=election2011

Edited April 28, 2011 by Harry

[Guest Derek L]

In mikedavid00's world, that makes them the far left.

Yeah, from reading his comments, makes me wonder where he stands.

I guess he claims to be Conservative, but with reading some of his posts, I tend to think he's not a memeber of the party or he never recieved his copy of the "Hidden agenda memo"