punked Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) Excuse me for a moment, but....holy fuck. A mile wide and an inch deep? More like a mile wide and a mile deep. 308 is saying with those numbers you are looking at least 31 NDP seats 30 Bloc 10 CPC and 4 Liberals. Seriously the Liberals with 4 seats in Quebec? Bloc in second? It would be a whole new Canada the next morning. We could now have a Bloc Ontario being the Liberal party which would then be something like 75% from Ontario. They NDP could potentially double their seat count from Quebec Alone. The question now is can that spread from Quebec into Ontario. Edited April 21, 2011 by punked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 308 is saying with those numbers you are looking at least 31 NDP seats 30 Bloc 10 CPC and 4 Liberals. That CROP poll is apparently echoed by EKOS according to Twitter. Wow. This could still mean a Conservative majority btw...with an NDP official opposition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 That CROP poll is apparently echoed by EKOS according to Twitter. Wow. This could still mean a Conservative majority btw...with an NDP official opposition. Harper's been pushing for two-party government. And anything that squeezes out the traitors Bloc Quebecois can't be all bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evening Star Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) 308 is saying with those numbers you are looking at least 31 NDP seats 30 Bloc 10 CPC and 4 Liberals. Seriously the Liberals with 4 seats in Quebec? Bloc in second? It would be a whole new Canada the next morning. We could now have a Bloc Ontario being the Liberal party which would then be something like 75% from Ontario. They NDP could potentially double their seat count from Quebec Alone. The question now is can that spread from Quebec into Ontario. Link? I don't see this on threehundredeight.com... -- Nm, found it. Edited April 21, 2011 by Evening Star Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 That CROP poll is apparently echoed by EKOS according to Twitter. Wow. This could still mean a Conservative majority btw...with an NDP official opposition. No Con majority their NFLD seats are coming through and it looks like they are going to lose South Shore St Marg so they would have to find 15 seats and they don't have the numbers anywhere else. What we are looking at is some crazy finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 Link? I don't see this on threehundredeight.com... It was on the twitter http://twitter.com/#!/308dotcom Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 No Con majority I'm not so sure of that. The Liberal party may very well be decimated. If the Bloc is too, then there is an opening for both Harper and Layton. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 I'm not so sure of that. The Liberal party may very well be decimated. If the Bloc is too, then there is an opening for both Harper and Layton. You are right the polls could galvanize the public into two camps. Liberals for years voted Liberal because they didn't want the country to far right or left but if they are the third party fence sitters just might start taking sides. Like yourself SmallC someone who hates the extremes but was forced to pick one because the Liberals were just so terrible this election. This is going to be a crazy week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted April 21, 2011 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 Someone on twitter just dropped the internals of the new EKOS poll: "NDP has jumped into 1st place in Que 31% to 23.7% for Bloc, 20.6% Libs and 16.9% CPC" What is going ON!!!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evening Star Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) See, I think the Liberal Party does have a distinct set of principles that it stands for. (Some of them might be hard to notice because the Liberals have been so dominant throughout Canadian history that some Liberal values - bilingualism and multiculturalism for example - have become 'Canadian values'.) Liberals don't always live up to them but no party does. For instance, the Liberal principle of relatively centralized federalism is distinct from the decentralist approach of the PCs/CPC or the 'asymmetrical federalism' espoused by the NDP. Their approach to issues like funding research and development and scholarship is notably different from either the Conservative approach (which tends to favour overtly market-oriented work) or the NDP's approach (which tends to favour work with some social justice or environmental angle afaict). For one thing, it just seems to be a greater priority for the Liberals than for the other parties. Conservatives would probably love nothing more than for the centrist party to disappear and to have a polarized two-party system (where btw the party that represents/advocates for capital is more likely to have an advantage than a party that identifies with labour). This has just been the History of the Liberal party through out Canada. I mean lets take one of their MPs Geoff Reagan for example. His father Gerald Regan was the Premier of NS in 70s. While Premier he set up a 5 cent "fee" on every bottle of Liquor sold in NS. This went into a hidden fund NOT FOR THE PEOPLE OF NS, but for the Liberal party of NS itself this went on for a number of years. This was found out but it wasn't until the NDP came to power last year that this fund which still exists and has millions in it was outlawed. They actually have been spending money for years out of an illegal fund to win elections. Not that the son should pay for the sins of the father but what Gerald did was dead wrong the Liberals should have given up their multi million dollar slush fund a while ago. That is just one example of how the Liberal party as a brokerage party has been winning elections. Problem is with wide scale media the people of Canada wont accept this type of behavior anymore. Which means the Liberal party needs to change if they want to win and they just aren't. Edited April 21, 2011 by Evening Star Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 See, I think the Liberal Party does have a distinct set of principles that it stands for. (Some of them might be hard to notice because the Liberals have been so dominant throughout Canadian history that some Liberal values - bilingualism and multiculturalism for example - have become 'Canadian values'.) To the best of my knowledge Canada has always had three languages; English, French and Canadian. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BC_chick Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 You do know Angus Reid was the BEST pollster in the last election right? So what other pollsters were more accurate in other elections. Thing is, Angus Reid always favours the CPC and even a broken clock is right twice a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 Robert Fife just let the Qu numbers slip in Twitter. Crop poll in Que: NDP @ 36, BQ 31, Con 17. Libs 13. Those numbers are CRAZY!!!!! Anymore gain and we are looking at an NDP sweep. That is official: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/20/01-4391998-le-npd-prend-la-tete-au-quebec.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_en-manchette_2503_section_POS1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 That is official: http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/20/01-4391998-le-npd-prend-la-tete-au-quebec.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_B4_en-manchette_2503_section_POS1 This is just the beginning to rid Canada of Harper once and for all. Watch and see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kimmy Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 Wow! I think we all knew after Sponsorship that the days where it was either the Liberals or the Bloc were finished. But I don't think anybody anticipated the Liberals to fall this far, or for the NDP to rise to that level. It'll be interesting to see if it holds. -k Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 So what other pollsters were more accurate in other elections. Thing is, Angus Reid always favours the CPC and even a broken clock is right twice a day. Angus Reid does not favour the CPC, and they were the first ones to show the NDP tied with the Liberals this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) NDP has by far the most popular leader in Canada and the NPD are looking at about 30 seats just in Quebec, maybe more, and they are now tied for 2nd in Canada. Hang on to your hats folks the ride has just begun - we have 11 days to go. Keep an eye on 308.com for the seat projections, as there is some talk about it already in the comment section tonite. Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 from Ekos Research and iPolitics. in quebec - The poll, conducted earlier this week, found the New Democrats have jumped 10 percentage points since the eve of the leaders debate to 31.1 per cent while the Bloc has dropped like a rock by 7.4 percentage points to 23.7 per cent.The Liberals are steady at 20.6 per cent while the Conservatives have dropped slightly to 16.9 per cent. While the The NDP surge is most dramatic in Quebec, it is certainly not contained to there. Nationally, the NDP is now effectively tied with the Liberals at 24.9 per cent to 25.8 per cent. Both continue to lag behind the Conservatives, who were preferred by 34.5 per cent of respondents. a drop 34.5% for conservatives is definitely out of majority range ...and if the liberal and bloc vote bleed off to the NDP we could have a new official opposition...if the the trend keeps going who can predict where it will end, PM Layton?...the next 12 days will be interesting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 (edited) Angus Reid does not favour the CPC, and they were the first ones to show the NDP tied with the Liberals this week. and this latest poll agrees with that of Angus Reids... Edited April 21, 2011 by wyly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 I initially thought Harper was looking at best, 125 seats this election, but I now may have to revise that downwards. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 I initially thought Harper was looking at best, 125 seats this election, but I now may have to revise that downwards. We'll see. I don't think harpers sudden return to the "coalition" conspiracy scare tactic will gain him any new support, 60% of canadians reject him so they aren't likely to see a coalition or cooperative or alliance against harper as a bad thing... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Steele Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 While the Country as a whole has done fairly well and gotten a lot accomplished with coalition governments in the past, it could be political suicide for the minority parties if we end up with a minority situation two terms in a row. The PCs leading the coalition this past term have done a fantastic job at pulling Canada through these hard economic times. I'm afraid many of you are correct, too many Canadians vote with their heart instead of their heads. I know my Dad was always a party man no matter what candidate was running or what was happening in the Country. I have personally voted for three different parties federally over the past 39 years. Our future is too important to fall in love with a political party. The polls are definitely looking like we are going to have a very different looking government come May 3rd. I'm just afraid it's going to be another minority situation and that's not going to solve much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 What an absurd comment. Minority governments are for people who want to work together. People like Harper need to get out of the way and let more civil people run the show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wyly Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 The polls are definitely looking like we are going to have a very different looking government come May 3rd. I'm just afraid it's going to be another minority situation and that's not going to solve much! what's to solve I wasn't aware there was problem...where is it written that minority governments are bad?...in a democracy we progress by finding a path forward that includes as many viewpoints as possible, minorities are perfectly acceptable, there is nothing to solve, other than the faulty FPTP voting system..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted April 21, 2011 Report Share Posted April 21, 2011 CROP - April 21 Quebec N - 36% B - 31% C - 17% L - 13% Montreal N - 40% B - 28% L - 17% C - 12% Francophones B - 38% N - 34% (hot on the heels of the Bloc) C- 15% L - 11% Best Choice for Prime Minister Layton - 38% Harper - 11% Ignatieff - 8% Le NPD prend la tête au Québec Une révolution orange point à l'horizon au Québec le 2 mai. Contre toute attente, le NPD est passé en tête dans les intentions dans la province pour la première fois de son histoire, supplantant ainsi le Bloc québécois à environ 10 jours du scrutin. --------------- Avec de tels résultats, le NPD pourrait mettre la main sur des circonscriptions à Montréal, notamment Jeanne-Le Ber, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Lachine et Westmount-Ville-Marie, selon M. Rivest. Après les débats des chefs, Jack Layton avait mis le cap sur Montréal afin de tirer profit de sa bonne performance. Le NPD prévoit faire un autre rassemblement à Montréal samedi. http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/elections-federales/201104/20/01-43... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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