Federal Election Polls

[CITIZEN_2015]

Blah Blah, I'm sure you'll be outraged if the Liberals win a majority with 35%. LIKE IN ONTARIO!!!!

If you wish to debate then debate but no need for this, I am stating the facts and the facts are 60%+ of votes likely would go to opposition (likely 67% as it looks like now as we speak) and if a government formed by opposition then they would have the support or the votes of a strong majority of the voters not the single party with 38% to form a majority or 33% as it looks like now to form a government. Now you can argue with me all you want but you cannot argue with numbers and logic!!!. And who said I support Ontario liberals!!!.

Edited September 28, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[Keepitsimple]

No need for this. If you wish to debate then debate, I am stating the facts and the facts are 60%+ of votes likely go to opposition and if a government formed by opposition then they would have the support or the votes of a majority of the voters not the single party with 38% to form a majority. Now you can argue with me but you cannot argue with numbers and logic!!!. And who said I support Ontario liberals!!!.

Yes there is a need for that (Blah, blah, blah). Your constant carping of the 60% "opposed" is a direct slap at how Canada has been governed since its inception - arguably the most successful democracy in the world.

[Smallc]

Yeah because voters will treat a return to the polls a few months later very kindly.

Who said anything about a return to the polls?

[Boges]

No need for this. If you wish to debate then debate, I am stating the facts and the facts are 60%+ of votes likely go to opposition and if a government formed by opposition then they would have the support or the votes of a majority of the voters not the single party with 38% to form a majority. Now you can argue with me all you want but you cannot argue with numbers and logic!!!. And who said I support Ontario liberals!!!.

It's a circular debate.

You can say 60% of the country opposes the winner if they don't reach a majority of popular support (It hasn't happened since 1988 and even then it was only just 50%). But that ignores that it can't be assumed the 60% of the people that voted against the winning party can form a government either.

Now you could have a coalition but parties should be up front about their willingness to form a coalition so a supporter of, say the Liberals, would be fine with should they finish second being propped up by the NDP and potentially having their MPs in cabinet.

Nothing says you can't have a coalition but both JT and Mulclair have not said it's something they're interested in.

Edited September 28, 2015 by Boges

[Boges]

Who said anything about a return to the polls?

Well if they defeat the throne speech that's what will happen.

Unless they form a coalition, but as said above I haven't heard anything from the leaders that they're interested in that.

[Smallc]

Well if they defeat the throne speech that's what will happen.

Unless they form a coalition, but as said above I haven't heard anything from the leaders that they're interested in that.

Actually another party can govern without a coalition, even if they have fewer seats.

[Boges]

Recent minority governments in Canada usually get a 2 year period to govern because all parties don't have the funds to fight a new election should they defeat the government.

[Boges]

Actually another party can govern without a coalition, even if they have fewer seats.

They still have to be propped up by another party in order to not get defeated themselves.

[CITIZEN_2015]

I am no expert in international politics (not that I claim expertise in national politics) but I think coalitions have happened in many other democracies overseas. It is not directed to you Boges as you debated me in a civil manner and made a good point but the other guy instead of debating (which he had to argue against logic and statistics to do so) he actually attacked me!!!!. Btw, I think Trudeau indicated that he wishes to change the electoral system somewhat so that the end result better reflects voters' choices. No?

Edited September 28, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[On Guard for Thee]

and if the opposition decide to defeat the Tories, that win quickly becomes a loss.

I suspect your wife's idea may well materialize, big time. As Mulcair begins to falter as he seems to be doing of late, even though only slightly, his/their supporters may well shift in droves to Trudeau with that ABH idea at top of mind. Let's see what tonight's debate reveals.

[Boges]

I am no expert in international politics (not that I claim expertise in national politics) but I think coalitions have happened in many other democracies overseas. It is not directed to you Boges as you debated me in a civil manner and made a good point but the other guy instead of debating (which he had to argue against logic and statistics to do so) he actually attacked me!!!!. Btw, I think Trudeau indicated that he wishes to change the electrode system somewhat so that the end result better reflects voters' choices. No?

Sure David Cameron holds on to power in the UK because of a coalition with a lesser party.

All I'm saying is that should the NDP or Liberals members see a potential government as more legitimate if they have less members than another party but are propped up by MPs that were elected to represent another party?

Edited September 28, 2015 by Boges

[ToadBrother]

They still have to be propped up by another party in order to not get defeated themselves.

A lot depends upon the timing of the recall of Parliament and the timing of the Throne Speech. If it happens within weeks of the election, and the Tory minority were to be defeated, then I think the Governor General would more than likely ask the next largest party to form a government, with the hopes that it could survive for at least a few months.

If, as some have suggested, the Tories put off recalling Parliament until the New Year, then the Governor General would likely need some sort of assurance that the other parties would be able to produce a stable government; whether that is a formal coalition (unlikely) or some sort of confidence and supply agreement (more likely). Without that, the Governor General would more likely dissolve Parliament and hope the voters would produce a more stable Parliament.

I have every expectation that, if the Tories are returned with a minority, that the Liberals and NDP would find a way to work together in a more concrete way than "bill by bill".

[eyeball]

I might be reading this wrong, however, strategic voting will be an important factor in the final 3 weeks as droves of New Democrats jump ship to the Liberals in a final effort to stop Harper.

Now I guess I'll have to figure out who to vote for to thwart Harper AND prevent a Liberal majority.

Damn this FPTP sure makes it hard to really get what you don't want.

[Derek 2.0]

I think it's a bit early to declare the NDP dead, but it seems that they are fading in Quebec, and certainly weakening in BC. I can't see them so totally collapsing by election day that this turns into a classic Grit-Tory showdown, but it does appear that they need to do something.

That remains to be see, but I will admit, I'm surprised with the declining NDP numbers in Quebec......

Purely anecdotal, but my wife, who is a firm NDP supporter (yes, I love her anyways... ) is saying "I think Trudeau is going to win..." Now I don't have her certainty that the Tories won't pull off a victory of some sort, but I think if you have NDPers starting to look at the electoral calculus here in their "Anybody But Harper" terms, I would be pretty concerned if I was Mulcair and Co. that the progressives and left of centers may very well be seeing the Liberals as the best possible course to preventing a Tory majority.

That's possible, but I'd question if such a shift would only effect tight Liberal-NDP races in urban areas......I can't see that having an effect in most of BC or Ontario outside of metro Toronto.

Lots of time left, but I think we can say one thing about this election, that all the predictions that Trudeau would fall to pieces, become nothing more than a quivering pile of gaffes with nice hair, have failed. I wouldn't call him a top notch campaigner yet, but he and his time have done some pretty good work to plant themselves firmly between the Tories and NDP. In other words, the Liberals appear to be back, and as deft as ever at stealing bits and pieces of their competitors' platforms and putting the ol' Red Book Spin on them.

I'd question if that is a result of the NDP having a bad campaign, and not Trudeau having a good one. In terms of policy, as a biased Tory, I will say the Liberal team (absent Trudeau) has put forth more substance than the NDP (I've seen strata councils put forth better budgetary updates than the NDP's piece).

Whatever anyone may think of Harper's decade in power, I'd say his overarching goal, to destroy the Liberal Party, has failed. Even if the Tories pull off a victory in a few weeks, it seems likely that they will have to do so with a renewed Liberal machine. We may be returning to a "normal" electoral situation; Tories and Liberals battling for majorities; and the NDP reduced to permanent third party status.

October 20th will tell the whole tale, but I think the present Liberal party is no longer the past Liberal party, which I feel the NDP is trying to become..........When Harper returns to a majority on the 20th, I can't fathom a major shake-up. for both the Liberals and NDP, not being forthwith.

[Derek 2.0]

Sure David Cameron holds on to power in the UK because of a coalition with a lesser party.

Cameron won a "surprise" Majority this past Spring.....his former Liberal Democrat partners were wiped off the map.

[Derek 2.0]

I have every expectation that, if the Tories are returned with a minority, that the Liberals and NDP would find a way to work together in a more concrete way than "bill by bill".

I doubt it, doing so for the Liberals or NDP is suicidal, as the junior partner in coalitions take all the political risk (and blowback) as the senior partner, but don't receive any political praise........

One other thing to point out, Trudeau has said he won't support a Harper minority Government "bill by bill", he's never mentioned what he'd do with a Kenney/Raitt/Mackay?/Baird? Government.......inversely, Trudeau might very well be supportive of an NDP Government, that of course doesn't mean the entire Liberal Party would.......

[cybercoma]

NDP are out of the margin then.

They aren't marketable in most of Ontario. To win a federal election you need to win Ontario and they are irrelevant everywhere except Windsor, Hamilton, parts of Toronto and the North.

At 5.6% they're within the MOE. Though several polls show them behind so it's unlikely that they're tied or ahead. Also 5.6% doesn't seem right. The MOE should be about 3%.

[Evening Star]

The MOE was 2.8%. Boges was doubling this. A poll with a MOE of 5.6% would be useless.

[cybercoma]

The MOE was 2.8%. Boges was doubling this. A poll with a MOE of 5.6% would be useless.

He might have been considering the range then, since it's +/- 2.8%. That makes the results look like this when you speak of 95% confidence intervals.

CPC - 30.2 <-33.0 -> 35.8

LPC - 28.8 <- 31.6 -> 34.4

NDP - 24.1 <- 26.9 -> 29.7

GRN - 0.8 <- 3.6 -> 6.4

So the NDP is within range of the LPC. The LPC is well within range of the CPC. However, the NDP is out of range for the CPC. Essentially, the LPC and CPC are in a statistical tie for the lead.

[cybercoma]

Ipsos Reid today has the LPC and CPC in a statistical tie with the NDP 5-6% behind now.

[ToadBrother]

I doubt it, doing so for the Liberals or NDP is suicidal, as the junior partner in coalitions take all the political risk (and blowback) as the senior partner, but don't receive any political praise........

How would a confidence and supply agreement be suicide? After all, it's hardly the first time the Liberals have contemplated it, and indeed, the NDP have considered it twice in the last ten years.

One other thing to point out, Trudeau has said he won't support a Harper minority Government "bill by bill", he's never mentioned what he'd do with a Kenney/Raitt/Mackay?/Baird? Government.......inversely, Trudeau might very well be supportive of an NDP Government, that of course doesn't mean the entire Liberal Party would.......

I think the intent of the opposition parties is clear. If the Tories don't at least get very very close to a majority, they're done. Now maybe the Tories can pull it off, they've certainly improved their standing over the last few weeks, but this idea that somehow the Tories don't have a serious problem if they don't get a majority seems little more than wishful thinking.

[CITIZEN_2015]

Time for strategic voters to move to Liberals?

Yes with today's Nano's poll the answer is a definite YES it is time for NDP voters to move to liberals to boost Liberal support.

• 32.6 per cent supported the Conservatives as their top choice
• 31.4 per cent picked the Liberals as their top choice
• 27.0 per cent chose the NDP

Trudeau did well in last night's debate also much better than both Mulcair and better than Harper (i didn't see the debate live but all analysts agree on that) so his numbers may go up even further tomorrow. The "He is not ready" personal attack ads on Trudeau won't work anymore. NDP had it till very recent but evidently they blew it.

Edited September 29, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

[waldo]

Trudeau did well in last night's debate also much better than both Mulcair and better than Harper (i didn't see the debate live but all analysts agree on that) so his numbers may go up even further tomorrow. The "He is not ready" personal attack ads on Trudeau won't work anymore. NDP had it till very recent but evidently they blew it.

seems to be the prevailing consensus amongst most of the debate 'review experts'... as Brian Mulroney was quoted as saying: "Underestimate Justin Trudeau at your own peril"

[ToadBrother]

seems to be the prevailing consensus amongst most of the debate 'review experts'... as Brian Mulroney was quoted as saying: "Underestimate Justin Trudeau at your own peril"

The one prediction of Tory partisans was that Trudeau would collapse, that he would be a foolish gaffe-ridden campaigner that would destroy the Liberals.

Now that Trudeau is leaving Mulcair in the dust, and is as much a beneficiary of the NDP's failing fortunes as the Tories, it's pretty clear that even if the Tories should win, Justin Trudeau has passed through the crucible. If not PM this time, I think it's extremely likely he will be PM in due course.

Ponder this as you consider that Harper's longstanding mission has been to destroy the Liberal party. For him, the dream has always been a right-of-center party battling a left-of-center party, and no Liberal Party to work the middle ground. That grand scheme is dead. The Liberal Party has survived, and has demonstrated itself as adept at stealing its opponents' thunder as ever.

[Vancouver King]

Yes with today's Nano's poll the answer is a definite YES it is time for NDP voters to move to liberals to boost Liberal support.

• 32.6 per cent supported the Conservatives as their top choice
• 31.4 per cent picked the Liberals as their top choice
• 27.0 per cent chose the NDP

Trudeau did well in last night's debate also much better than both Mulcair and better than Harper (i didn't see the debate live but all analysts agree on that) so his numbers may go up even further tomorrow. The "He is not ready" personal attack ads on Trudeau won't work anymore. NDP had it till very recent but evidently they blew it.

Agreed, Mulcair's calculated risk of fiscal moderation - no deficits - did not pay the returns he hoped and Trudeau's gamble of running several deficits to prime the economy seems to be a winner. Whatever the reasons, five separate pollsters now confirm the NDP is in decline.

Let me be the first to trade my NDP placard for a 'real change' Liberal lawn sign.