Federal Election Polls

[Boges]

Uh oh! Another Outlier!

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-election/2015/09/17/conservatives-take-narrow-lead-new-poll-shows.html

After falling as low as third in the polls for weeks, Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have regained the lead in voter support, a new survey by Forum Research finds.

Forum president Lorne Bozinoff says Monday’s announcement from the federal Finance Department that Ottawa posted a $1.9-billion budget surplus likely gave Harper a bump, given that Forum polled its respondents Monday and Tuesday nights –—after the announcement.

The Conservatives have 32 per cent support, compared to 30 per cent for the NDP, and 28 per cent for the Liberals, according to Forum.

[The_Squid]

Pollsters are funny.... they inflate the importance of their polls so people will read them, I believe. If it is within the margin of error, then there wasn't a bump... or a drop... it's the same... because the poll is +/- x%

So a 2% increase or decrease isn't a drop or rise. It's the same.

[ToadBrother]

Pollsters are funny.... they inflate the importance of their polls so people will read them, I believe. If it is within the margin of error, then there wasn't a bump... or a drop... it's the same... because the poll is +/- x%

So a 2% increase or decrease isn't a drop or rise. It's the same.

I never understand this hate-on for pollsters, or this idea that somehow or the other they're manipulating their numbers.

The sole reason pollsters do political polls is as advertising for paying clients. If they call an election pretty close, it's an awfully good selling point when they're going to their paying customers; "Look what we did with the 2015 election. Now imagine what we can do for your cold breakfast cereal product line!"

[Canada_First]

Pollsters are funny.... they inflate the importance of their polls so people will read them, I believe. If it is within the margin of error, then there wasn't a bump... or a drop... it's the same... because the poll is +/- x%

So a 2% increase or decrease isn't a drop or rise. It's the same.

Just because the margin of error doesn't mean s full 2% in any direction. Perhaps the CPC is 1.5% higher and the NDP is 0.5% lower? Or maybe they are both lower and the Grits and Greens are higher.

Really it's just a guess. It's going to be quite exciting moving forward. That we can be sure of. I don't remember an election this close with all 3 parties in my lifetime. Democracy FTW!

[Vancouver King]

And so it begins.

Forum has NDP down 6 points, Liberals down 1 and Conservatives up 4. Nothing outlier about this one - these are reasonable numbers based on most recent campaign events. How does 76% approval for Harper's approach to Syrian refugees translate into party support? See above. How does a very positive Finance Dept. report impact support levels for parties? See above.

Tonight is crucial. Unless Mulcair and Trudeau can serve up a miracle in the economic debate, and with a month of political despair behind him, Harper is poised to take firm charge of this campaign. Not a pleasant outlook for liberals but one that was predictable.

Also remember the messenger does not deserve to be hung, - what the hell, don't forget you read it here first.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Vancouver King

[Canada_First]

Very sound reasoning Vancouver King. This debate will be pivotal moving forward. I'm already sick of the campaign. It's been going on since the beginning of this year if not previous to that...lol.

[Boges]

Very sound reasoning Vancouver King. This debate will be pivotal moving forward. I'm already sick of the campaign. It's been going on since the beginning of this year if not previous to that...lol.

Argument against fixed election dates.

[ToadBrother]

Argument against fixed election dates.

Exactly. Another argument against them is that it doesn't stop a PM from pulling the plug early than the four years, or dropping the writ many weeks in advance of the fixed election date.

Seldom has more pointless populist legislation been passed.

[Evening Star]

Argument against fixed election dates.

Definitely. Who saw the endless campaigns in the US and thought "we need some of that"?

[Canada_First]

Definitely. Who saw the endless campaigns in the US and thought "we need some of that"?

Lol. The US seems like it's in a campaign perpetually almost. It's not needed. I like our relatively short writ period.

[Smallc]

What would have been far more useful was a set writ period - say 50 days.

[Canada_First]

What would have been far more useful was a set writ period - say 50 days.

Do we really need more government rules? We have too many rules as it is Imo. Just get rid if the fixed election dates. Everything would go back to normal.

[ToadBrother]

What would have been far more useful was a set writ period - say 50 days.

The problem there being that dissolution is a Royal Prerogative, and that means a Constitutional amendment to actually entrench it.

[Smallc]

The problem there being that dissolution is a Royal Prerogative, and that means a Constitutional amendment to actually entrench it.

I don't think the date should be changed. Just have the campaigns a set length - thr Monday closest to 50 days after the writ is dropped. The date should not be fixed.

Edited September 17, 2015 by Smallc

[ToadBrother]

I don't think the date should be changed. Just have the campaigns a set length - thr Monday closest to 50 days after the writ is dropped. The date should not be fixed.

While it could be a guideline, "the writ being dropped" is the Governor General invoking the Prerogative of Dissolution, so you couldn't actually enforce the 50 day election. A PM could come along and make it 60 days or 30 days.

[Smallc]

While it could be a guideline, "the writ being dropped" is the Governor General invoking the Prerogative of Dissolution, so you couldn't actually enforce the 50 day election. A PM could come along and make it 60 days or 30 days.

I believe there's already a37 day minimum. I don't see how this would be all that different form that.

[cybercoma]

Poll tracker from The Star today.

Dead tie.

[Canada_First]

Poll tracker from The Star today.

Dead tie.

Crazy. Ty for posting this.

[cybercoma]

Latest Forum Numbers. NDP falls 6 points, CPC up 3 points.

CPC 32 (+4), NDP 30 (-6), LPC 28 (-1), GPC 6 (+3), BQ 4 (+1)

[Derek 2.0]

I think the numbers to be released next week, including data collected post debate and NDP budget release, will strain some of the mud from the water.......

[cybercoma]

Environics Poll in the field Sept 10-15

Across Canada, the NDP (34%) currently has a small five point lead over the second place Liberals (29%). This is within the margin of error. The Conservatives are in third place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight percent support the Green party and four percent support the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec).

What a wonky poll. 5 points is within the margin of error? Talk about useless. This is why these polls can be so utterly wrong in predictions, but relatively close in numbers.

Edited September 17, 2015 by cybercoma

[Shady]

Still a month left, which is a political eternity.

[Boges]

Environics Poll in the field Sept 10-15

Across Canada, the NDP (34%) currently has a small five point lead over the second place Liberals (29%). This is within the margin of error. The Conservatives are in third place with the support of 26% of Canadians. Another eight percent support the Green party and four percent support the Bloc Québécois (15% in Quebec).

What a wonky poll. 5 points is within the margin of error? Talk about useless. This is why these polls can be so utterly wrong in predictions, but relatively close in numbers.

I'm pretty intune with current affairs and I've never ever heard of that polling company.

[ToadBrother]

I think the numbers to be released next week, including data collected post debate and NDP budget release, will strain some of the mud from the water.......

Judging by the behavior of the campaigns, I'd wager internal polling is just as confused. The only useful analysis I've seen is that none of the three actually knows how to fight a three way race, so each party is fighting a nightmare two front war.

I think this is largely what you would expect from a true three-way race, where everything is clouded in margins of error. The only real question I've have is whether the pollsters' assumptions about the relative vote efficiency of the three parties still holds true. There's still quite a tendency to lean towards the Tories having the upper hand, and thus, even when they fall behind popular vote, of still getting more seats for it. I think the region and riding level data we're beginning to see suggests that, at least in BC and Ontario, the Tories may be losing that advantage. The Liberals appear poised to dominate Ontario, which really is the Tories' nightmare scenario.

Of course, something unforeseen, like a surge of the Bloc Quebecois, could come along and muck up the NDP, but thus far I'm seeing little evidence that either they or the Greens are making any significant impact.

Edited September 17, 2015 by ToadBrother

[Derek 2.0]

Another interesting one a friend just sent me:

A new poll indicates that Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau could be in danger of losing his seat in Parliament.

Trudeau has represented the Montreal, Que., riding of Papineau since 2008.

According to the CROP survey released on Thursday, 35 per cent of respondents said they intend to vote for the Liberal leader.

NDP candidate Anne Lagace Dowson is polling at 46 per cent.

Another 10 per cent of respondents said they plan to vote for Maxime Claveau of the Bloc Quebecois.

Meanwhile, the Conservative candidate, Yvon Vadnais, came in fourth at 5 per cent.

The poll, which surveyed 375 residents of the riding over the phone between September 11 and 14, was commissioned by the NDP.

Its margin of error is 5.06 per cent.

Not sure if CROP is reliable or not, but there you go......