Federal Election Polls

[Evening Star]

I have no idea after watching the debate how anyone could prefer Justin over Mulcair.

I thought JT was ridiculous in the debate. However, there have been a few reasons why the Liberals have been starting to seem a little more viable in my eyes:

i) their willingness to run some deficits to invest in infrastructure during rougher economic times, as opposed to the NDP's confusing messages on economic policy

ii) a more reasonable policy on the Senate than the NDP

iii) a somewhat more reasonable approach to electoral reform than the NDP

iv) legalization of marijuana as opposed to decriminalization

v) clearer proposals for open government

Edit: vi) They have a platform.

Interestingly, they want to take in far more Syrian refugees than the NDP does. Edit: the NDP's approach seems like a more realistic way to start to me.

C-51, Bill Blair, and Liberal parties' general records on handling protests will likely keep me from voting for the LPC, though.

Edited September 5, 2015 by Evening Star

[ReeferMadness]

Mulcair's smile was creepy as hell and Trudeau gave a Disney speech at the end.

Well, as long as there's a good reason.

[ReeferMadness]

NDP loses momentum, Cons drop to 3rd.

I'm not sure why so many people here hate Trudeau. I suspect some of you are still mad at Pierre.

I don't know that a Liberal minority under Trudeau would be drastically different from an NDP minority under Mulcair. I prefer the Liberal position on pot and I think Trudeau has been more forthcoming on financial matters.

I prefer the NDP position on voting system reform but I'm not convinced that either one of them will actually be able to deliver it. Over two BC elections, I've witnessed the way that party insiders on all sides can sabotage voting system reform. I'm optimistic that we can still get it but the only leader that would really go out on a ledge for it is Elizabeth May.

As long as Harper loses, October 19 will be a great day for Canada.

[Evening Star]

I'm not sure why so many people here hate Trudeau. I suspect some of you are still mad at Pierre.

Actually, I admire a lot of things that PET did. JT is no PET and, until fairly recently, I disliked him more than Harper. I don't think he or the LPC were effective in the House. His stance on C-51 was pathetic: he and his party voted in favour of it but he more or less said he was doing this so the CPC wouldn't be able to attack him. He has been willing to work with people for whom I have little respect, such as Adams/Soudas and Bill Blair. In the Maclean's debate, I thought his contributions were generally shallow and vague and his closing speech seemed like self-parody.

Oddly, though, recently, the NDP and Mulcair seem to have become MORE wishy-washy and shallow in terms of policy, presumably under the advice of campaign strategists, while JT and the LPC have actually been making sensible statements.

[cybercoma]

I'm not sure why so many people here hate Trudeau.

Because he voted for legislation that even he thinks may be unconstitutional. Because he supported Eve Adams, one of the worst CPC MPs. Because he backs Bill Blair, who oversaw the G20 police abuse. Because he took a sensitive sexual harassment issue and broadcast it to the world against the wishes of the victims. Because he wants to run numerous deficits before scraping together $10 Billion in savings to balance the books. Because the Liberal Party needed revitalization and instead they went with a dynasty candidate, tied personally to the entire old guard.

[ReeferMadness]

Actually, I admire a lot of things that PET did. JT is no PET and, until fairly recently, I disliked him more than Harper. I don't think he or the LPC were effective in the House. His stance on C-51 was pathetic: he and his party voted in favour of it but he more or less said he was doing this so the CPC wouldn't be able to attack him. He has been willing to work with people for whom I have little respect, such as Adams/Soudas and Bill Blair. In the Maclean's debate, I thought his contributions were generally shallow and vague and his closing speech seemed like self-parody.

Oddly, though, recently, the NDP and Mulcair seem to have become MORE wishy-washy and shallow in terms of policy, presumably under the advice of campaign strategists, while JT and the LPC have actually been making sensible statements.

You make some fair points but he seems to be finding his stride. I missed the debate, unfortunately.

I still don't understand how you could dislike him more than Harper, though.

[Smallc]

You make some fair points but he seems to be finding his stride. I missed the debate, unfortunately.

I really like the Liberal Party of Canada. I really don't like Trudeau up to this point.

[ReeferMadness]

I really like the Liberal Party of Canada. I really don't like Trudeau up to this point.

Seems to be a common reaction.

[Smallc]

Seems to be a common reaction.

I've actually held memberships in both the Liberals and the Conservatives (currently do in the Conservatives), but I'm really not comfortable with either of those, as I can easily identify with policies from any of the 3 parties.

[ReeferMadness]

I've actually held memberships in both the Liberals and the Conservatives (currently do in the Conservatives), but I'm really not comfortable with either of those, as I can easily identify with policies from any of the 3 parties.

Everyone is crowding the middle these days. I've voted Progressive Conservative in days gone by but I could never vote for these guys.

[ReeferMadness]

Because he voted for legislation that even he thinks may be unconstitutional. Because he supported Eve Adams, one of the worst CPC MPs. Because he backs Bill Blair, who oversaw the G20 police abuse. Because he took a sensitive sexual harassment issue and broadcast it to the world against the wishes of the victims. Because he wants to run numerous deficits before scraping together $10 Billion in savings to balance the books. Because the Liberal Party needed revitalization and instead they went with a dynasty candidate, tied personally to the entire old guard.

I'm still not exactly clear on how much of the G20 nightmare was Blair's doing vs other police forces but I take your point.

WRT the sexual harassment charges, I think Trudeau was in a no win situation. If he didn't take action and it came out later (and I think it was bound to sooner or later), people would accuse him of ignoring it. I think he was absolutely right in saying that the HoC needs a process for dealing with these types of allegations.

[eyeball]

I really like the Liberal Party of Canada. I really don't like Trudeau up to this point.

I'm even leerier of the Liberal Party than I am the Conservatives but only because they've had the longest hand in the destruction of our fisheries, on both coasts. How they accomplished this should give all Canadians pause to consider...a lot.

I'll never forgive either of them myself...ever.

[BC_chick]

CBC (aggregate) Poll Tracker just updated... Harper Conservatives now in 3rd place!

Yeah but it's all over the place from day to day.

I once had a poli-sci prof talking during the lecture about the flickering numbers at the bottom of the screen during the 95 Quebec referendum. It was so close and kept going back and forth between 49 and 51 as the votes were counted. He said he had to turn it off because it was nerve racking.

With our election being so close as a 3 way split, that's how I feel lately about Grenier's poll tracker. It's pretty nerve racking when no one has a clear lead.

Edited September 6, 2015 by Charles Anthony
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[Vancouver King]

Yeah but it's all over the place from day to day.

With our election being so close as a 3 way split, that's how I feel lately about Grenier's poll tracker. It's pretty nerve racking when no one has a clear lead.

Through the jungle of numbers one crucial trend is apparent:

Conservatives are in trouble.

Initial feedback from the refugee issue (ie. Nick Nanos on CTV's Question Period today) is not pleasant news for Tories. Harper's adopted stance as the war leader is not playing well among voters who want increased, timely efforts in accepting additional refugees.

If Pamela Wallin is charged during this campaign - a real possibility - Conservatives are guaranteed official third party status. Tories cannot absorb another hit of that magnitude.

The numbers will vary by region from day to day, but one thing is becoming relentlessly obvious: the current gov't is going down.

[ToadBrother]

Through the jungle of numbers one crucial trend is apparent:

Conservatives are in trouble.

Initial feedback from the refugee issue (ie. Nick Nanos on CTV's Question Period today) is not pleasant news for Tories. Harper's adopted stance as the war leader is not playing well among voters who want increased, timely efforts in accepting additional refugees.

If Pamela Wallin is charged during this campaign - a real possibility - Conservatives are guaranteed official third party status. Tories cannot absorb another hit of that magnitude.

The numbers will vary by region from day to day, but one thing is becoming relentlessly obvious: the current gov't is going down.

They were always in trouble. The possibility of third party status may be new, but I don't think any but the most ardent supporters thought there was much chance of another majority, and everyone knows that the Tories have created such enmity with the Liberals that even if Trudeau was tempted to prop up a Tory minority, it would be politically impossible to do so.

They should have jettisoned Harper last year. It was foolish to allow him to pursue his personal ambition of a fourth term.

[ToadBrother]

Yeah but it's all over the place from day to day.

I once had a poli-sci prof talking during the lecture about the flickering numbers at the bottom of the screen during the 95 Quebec referendum. It was so close and kept going back and forth between 49 and 51 as the votes were counted. He said he had to turn it off because it was nerve racking.

With our election being so close as a 3 way split, that's how I feel lately about Grenier's poll tracker. It's pretty nerve racking when no one has a clear lead.

There aren't that many possibilities. I think we all know that anything less than a commanding Tory minority (within a few seats) means one of the other two will either have a minority on election night, or about an hour or two after a weak Tory minority is shown the door after the Speech from the Throne. Whether the NDP or Liberals end up on top, they'll need to accommodate and integrate a number of the other party's policies to assure they retain confidence. So, to me, it really is only two possibilities.

[Evening Star]

There aren't that many possibilities. I think we all know that anything less than a commanding Tory minority (within a few seats) means one of the other two will either have a minority on election night, or about an hour or two after a weak Tory minority is shown the door after the Speech from the Throne. Whether the NDP or Liberals end up on top, they'll need to accommodate and integrate a number of the other party's policies to assure they retain confidence. So, to me, it really is only two possibilities.

Even if the Tories try to hold onto government without a plurality...?

[ToadBrother]

Even if the Tories try to hold onto government without a plurality...?

That would be a pretty shortlived affair, I think. I doubt they would even attempt it, but if they did, it would last no longer than if the Tories gained a small plurality. In fact, I wonder if Harper would even try to hang on to power if he got, say, 120 seats

[Springer]

Last election here in BC, the NDP started out 20 points ahead 36 days prior to the vote.

Christy ran a positive campaign, focused on the economy. The NDP were pretty much against anything to do with resource development and pipelines.

Eventually, and when push come to shove as the vote neared, people finally got serious as they tend to do in the final days, and got around to remembering the disastrous years of the last NDP government.

The rest is history.

The Nanos polls show undecided as high as 50%. This, historically, tends to favor the government du jour.

Watch for polls in BC to start to swing back to the CPC, already trending that way.

Mulcair is peddling garbage. Trudeau is just ignorant and all too obviously unqualified for the job. Harper has forgotten more about economics than either of them ever knew in their entire lives...combined.

Early on, people...the few actually paying attention...are out there kicking tires, which is reflected in the first polls, particularly this time, given the extended lead up time.

When the time comes to get serious about who's the most capable to lead the country, the focus turns to the economy. And in this case, I believe international affairs will factor in more than usual.

Stephen Harper, clearly, is the only adult in the room in both cases.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Springer

[On Guard for Thee]

Last election here in BC, the NDP started out 20 points ahead 36 days prior to the vote.

Christy ran a positive campaign, focused on the economy. The NDP were pretty much against anything to do with resource development and pipelines.

Eventually, and when push come to shove as the vote neared, people finally got serious as they tend to do in the final days, and got around to remembering the disastrous years of the last NDP government.

The rest is history.

The Nanos polls show undecided as high as 50%. This, historically, tends to favor the government du jour.

Watch for polls in BC to start to swing back to the CPC, already trending that way.

Mulcair is peddling garbage. Trudeau is just ignorant and clearly unqualified for the job. Harper has forgotten more about economics than either of them ever knew in their entire lives...combined.

Early on, people...the few actually paying attention...are out there kicking tires, which is reflected in the first polls, particularly this time, given the extended lead up time.

When the time comes to get serious about who's the most capable to lead the country, the focus turns to the economy. And in this case, I believe international affairs will factor in more than usual.

Stephen Harper, clearly, is the only adult in the room in both cases.

Harper fails on both international affairs and the economy. If that's what you think he has going for him then you must be in that ~24% of Canadians that support him.

[eyeball]

There are more ways than one to hang onto power. Imagine the co-incidence of a a big terror attack during the campaign or when a hung Parliament was trying to sort it self out. Would Harper declare a state of emergency and claim that the time to change government be postponed? I thing the more relevant question would be how long it would take him to decide when the emergency was over.

[Springer]

That's what I think, On Guard.

Canada came through the 2008 crash...you know, the one caused by the sub-prime mortgage fiasco stateside...certainly relative to the US and Europe, pretty much unscathed. Indeed, we were the envy of the western world, particularly considering how tied our economy is to America fortunes...and they got crushed!

This latest little blip? - 0.1% over two quarters?

Fact of it is, considering that our energy sector is getting the hell kicked out of it...all credit due to the Saudis deliberately throttling oil prices...it's because our economy is so well managed that the hit didn't affect us a great deal more. Thank you, PM Harper.

Nevertheless, Mulcair has the utter gall to suggest Harper is somehow to blame for two recessions now. Some would even call him an outright liar on that count.

Trudeau, he's all over the map. I've no doubt that what he knows about the economy and a loony still wouldn't getcha a coffee at Timmy's.

Now...you want to see a government inflict itself upon a recession? Just pay attention to Alberta, and witness the hell the NDP are going to put that province through! Heads up to Quebec, Ontario and the rest of the provinces living off of equalization dole - that tap is just about to run dry! And the lot of you will have to start figuring out to pay your bills all on your own for a change. Not that it isn't about bloody well time!

I don't even want to get started on foreign affairs. Those two clowns are living on another planet.

Edited September 7, 2015 by Springer

[waldo]

Now...you want to see a government inflict itself upon a recession? Just pay attention to Alberta, and witness the hell the NDP are going to put that province through! Heads up to Quebec, Ontario and the rest of the provinces living off of equalization dole - that tap is just about to run dry! And the lot of you will have to start figuring out to pay your bills all on your own for a change. Not that it isn't about bloody well time!

oh... a new guy! How short are your pants? Care to offer up anything from the first 4 months of NDP government in Alberta that would support your unsubstantiated fear-mongering? Equalization dole? Tell me you're not yet another guy who doesn't actually know how equalization works... say it ain't so!

[Springer]

Waldo...

Been a political junky for about 45 years, since I'm about 15. Seen lots over that many years. You?

Been watching the NDP in Alberta. So have some of my family, who happen to live and work in that province. Let me tell you, there's considerable alarm so far with this NDP crew. A great many of her appointed chiefs of staff, most from out of province, including her own, are decidedly anti-oil and anti-oil sands development. You know, somewhat in the same manner as appointing avowed vegetarians to oversee the cattle industry.

The NDP got elected there, not because the province suddenly jerked to the left, but because Daniele Smith totally blew it, and got too cute by half with Prentice. POed just enough voters to the extent that they decided it was time to clean house, and the NDP just happened to be handy.

Had Smith kept her wits about her, and stuck to her guns, she'd be premier today, and with a helluva lot bigger majority than Notley.

I watched the NDP sack my province here in BC. I know what Albertans are in for, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

First lesson of politics: Ideology matters...no matter how much socialists try to pretend otherwise.

[waldo]

Been watching the NDP in Alberta. So have some of my family, who happen to live and work in that province. Let me tell you, there's considerable alarm so far with this NDP crew. A great many of her appointed chiefs of staff, most from out of province, including her own, are decidedly anti-oil and anti-oil sands development. You know, somewhat in the same manner as appointing avowed vegetarians to oversee the cattle industry.

alarm? Of course there's alarm from partisans who don't like the election result. But what's that alarm based on... after 4 months or so? Lots of positive comments from BigOil as to how "engaging" the NDP have been. Granted, Ezrant's "revenge tax" spiel has got a bit of mileage... notwithstanding the tax rate is only back to the level that the Ralph Klein Conservatives had it at. And then there's the royalty review that's been put back (what was it... 18 months) given the price of oil... that's hardly "alarming"! In any case, I doubt you'd find much sympathy for BigOil in terms of tax rates and royalty increases... given the most significant windfall profits enjoyed for "eons".

The NDP got elected there, not because the province suddenly jerked to the left, but because Daniele Smith totally blew it, and got too cute by half with Prentice. POed just enough voters to the extent that they decided it was time to clean house, and the NDP just happened to be handy.

Had Smith kept her wits about her, and stuck to her guns, she'd be premier today, and with a helluva lot bigger majority than Notley.

I watched the NDP sack my province here in BC. I know what Albertans are in for, and it ain't gonna be pretty.

First lesson of politics: Ideology matters...no matter how much socialists try to pretend otherwise.

that's a new one (on me)! Albertans were so PO'd at Conservatives they opted to vote NDP rather than Wildrose. Interesting.