Federal Election Polls

Smallc · September 1, 2015

We know the RBC PMI has dropped which is contra August being positive (for this ONE metric).

I'm just going by everything I've read. In the eyes of pretty much every economist, did happen and was over (some would also argue that we were never in recession because we had only 5 negative months, but I think that's quibbling over minutia).

msj · September 1, 2015

I'm just going by everything I've read. In the eyes of pretty much every economist, did happen and was over (some would also argue that we were never in recession because we had only 5 negative months, but I think that's quibbling over minutia).

Fair enough.

And I would prefer it if these twits would simply state the obvious: we don't know yet and we are waiting on more information and better information.

I don't think it matters whether the media calls it a recession or technical recession or a recovery in the making.

What will matter is how people feel on election day which is still a long way off.

Smallc · September 1, 2015

What will matter is how people feel on election day which is still a long way off.

So far, I feel like I don't want to vote Conservative again, despite everything else I post.

blueblood · September 2, 2015

So far, I feel like I don't want to vote Conservative again, despite everything else I post.

These liberals are a long way off of the days of wilfrid laurier.

As for the ndp, i only need to look at manitoba for what happens. 420 million deficit and havent had a balanced budget in some time along with a credit downgrade. And those were the "moderate" ones!

Smallc · September 2, 2015

As for the ndp, i only need to look at manitoba for what happens. 420 million deficit and havent had a balanced budget in some time along with a credit downgrade. And those were the "moderate" ones!

It's worth mentioning though - they were in surplus until the financial crisis and then the massive flood. It's also worth mentioning that they presided over 2 - 3 credit upgrades.

blueblood · September 2, 2015

It's worth mentioning though - they were in surplus until the financial crisis and then the massive flood. It's also worth mentioning that they presided over 2 - 3 credit upgrades.

Then they bent the knee for the kennedy family and wasted a billion dollars sending a power line down the west side of the province and upping the pst. Sask will be in half the deficit with the wildfires and back to balanced budgets after. One time. The mb ndp still has a credit downgrade along with systemic deficits.

Vancouver King · September 2, 2015

Add it all up and Tuesday's data suggests "there was a recession," TD Bank economist Randall Bartlett said. "In our view, it was a very very mild one in the first half of 2015, but that's behind us now and all indications point to a positive growing economy for the rest of the year."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gdp-economy-recession-1.3210790

But until the numbers indicate otherwise in 6-7 months, Canada officially remains in recession. Refer to the Balanced Budget Act thread and read Harpers own definition of a recession's conclusion.

CITIZEN_2015 · September 2, 2015

Liberal are wrong on deficit spending. 80% of economy is growing. Only the resource sector is in recession. The economy will grow strongly in the second half of this year and the budget will likely balanced too. Don't fix it when it is not broken. The Cons have done well on economy but they did ran an undemocratic secretive government and the polls is just reflecting the latter not the former.

cybercoma · September 2, 2015

Only the resource sector is in recession.

This is a blatant lie. For the first half of the year not only were mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction down, but also construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, and transportation and warehousing. See StatsCan CANSIM Table 379-0031: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?lang=eng&id=3790031

CITIZEN_2015 · September 2, 2015

So out of 36 industries listed some 6 or 7 are down. That is less than 20%. All industries is actually up slightly between February to end of June.

Edited September 2, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015

cybercoma · September 2, 2015

You want to take another stab at that?
Screen-Shot-2015-09-01-at-11.17.22-AM.pn

Edited September 2, 2015 by cybercoma

Smallc · September 2, 2015

How come a positive of 0.1 is stagnant, but a negative of 0.1 is in decline?

Edited September 2, 2015 by Smallc

CITIZEN_2015 · September 2, 2015

What I was saying that if you exclude the resource economy then we will have a normal growth for first half of year.

cybercoma · September 2, 2015

Sure. Hey, if we exclude half the sectors, we have massively positive growth!

The_Squid · September 2, 2015

Sure. Hey, if we exclude half the sectors, we have massively positive growth!

LOL

Now there's some right-wing logic!

CITIZEN_2015 · September 3, 2015

Basically I was pointing to the fact that if there wasn't because of factors beyond the control of any government regardless of what party forms that government then the economy would have had solid growth. So lets not condemn the Tories for what they are of no fault but rather condemn them for what they are at fault and that is scandals and running undemocratic secretive corrupt government. I am far from being right wing. My posts are indicative of that fact.

cybercoma · September 3, 2015

I was just pointing out that the talking point you picked up from the Conservatives, that the downturn is only oil and gas, is wrong.

ReeferMadness · September 3, 2015

Sure. Hey, if we exclude half the sectors, we have massively positive growth!

If I ignore my bills, I'm in great financial shape.

cybercoma · September 4, 2015

Mulcair continues to be punished in the polls, likely for his dismissal of the debates in Harper's absence. Ekos has the numbers N-30.2, C-29.5, L-27.7, G-6.4, B-4.2, Oth-1.9. The NDP are down over 3.5 points since the end of July, CPC virtually unchanged (down half a point), and LPC up 2.5 points.

Edited September 4, 2015 by cybercoma

Smallc · September 4, 2015

If Justin Trudeau pulls this off, I'll be very surprised, and very disappointed. I think Mulcair's real problem is that the NDP and Liberals have switched places in terms of policy lately.

Vancouver King · September 4, 2015

Today's EKOS poll confirms recent soundings - all 3 major parties are in a dead heat.

NDP - 30.2

CPC - 29.5

Libs - 27.7

CITIZEN_2015 · September 4, 2015

He may be down because of his immigration policy also the fact that he like conservative wishes to balance the budget this year and apparently his numbers don't add up. Even though I would like to vote ABC but Trudeau is no choice for me and I am beginning to have my doubts about voting Mulcair too!!!.

cybercoma · September 4, 2015

He may be down because of his immigration policy

Not even remotely likely. He's being punished for saying he won't attend debates unless Harper is there, as well as people thinking Trudeau won the debates for some bizarre reason.

Edited September 4, 2015 by cybercoma

Vancouver King · September 4, 2015

He may be down because of his immigration policy also the fact that he like conservative wishes to balance the budget this year and apparently his numbers don't add up. Even though I would like to vote ABC but Trudeau is no choice for me and I am beginning to have my doubts about voting Mulcair too!!!.

We shall see how Harper's response to the humanitarian refugee crisis - emphasizing military involvement - plays with voters.

Evening Star · September 4, 2015

If Justin Trudeau pulls this off, I'll be very surprised, and very disappointed. I think Mulcair's real problem is that the NDP and Liberals have switched places in terms of policy lately.

Yeah, I think the NDP was benefiting from a genuine resurgence in left-leaning sentiment globally and a fatigue with the two old-line parties in Canada. I don't think people wanted the NDP to become the Liberals.