Federal Election Polls

[Vancouver King]

So these numbers don't include Del Mastro's walk of shame. The actual Conservative figures are, likely, (1-2%?) lower.

[Keepitsimple]

Wow that's crazy. I wonder if the NDP can hold that lead through a campaign.

Is this it for JT?

Possibly (should be "probably")......we're going to find out how disenchanted Blue Liberals are with Harper and how disenchanted Red Liberals are with Trudeau. Will the Blue come back to the Conservative fold or sit on their hands? Will the Red stay with Mulcair or come back to Trudeau - or sit on their hands? What a really, really interesting time in electoral politics.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Keepitsimple

[PIK]

Who cares, once people realize his policies are nuts, it will change. The NDP do not have a idea why this is happening, because nobody really knows mulcair. The cons are only a few % away from a majority and once the election gets going , the NDP numbers will drop. People know what harper is all about, mulcair and trureau not so much.

[Vancouver King]

Who cares, once people realize his policies are nuts, it will change. The NDP do not have a idea why this is happening, because nobody really knows mulcair. The cons are only a few % away from a majority and once the election gets going , the NDP numbers will drop. People know what harper is all about, mulcair and trureau not so much.

Harper is 61% behind Mulcair in terms of leadership approval (-30% vs. +31%). How do you suppose Conservatives will turn that around?

Edited June 29, 2015 by Vancouver King

[PIK]

Because nobody knows mulcair,that is why. But again once the election starts and fence sitters start to take notice, that is when the numbers change. Like I said before even the NDP cant explain it. Go with the devil you know or don't know.

[BC_chick]

People know what harper is all about, mulcair and trureau not so much.

Yep, people know what Harper is about.

[PIK]

They know he is a honest man, sure every government has trouble makers ,but show me a more honest man that we have had for PM. You have trudeau screaming about Canada/American relations and who had the worst, his father. Harper is a man not afraid to say no, where the other 2 will be saying yes to everything just to get elected.. They both call for better relations with the PS, well they is only one way to do that and that is to give in to every demand.

[Michael Hardner]

They know he is a honest man...

There sure are a lot of scandals and resignations in the papers these days, though.

[On Guard for Thee]

Because nobody knows mulcair,that is why. But again once the election starts and fence sitters start to take notice, that is when the numbers change. Like I said before even the NDP cant explain it. Go with the devil you know or don't know.

Harper knows Mulcair, which is why Harper is running scared ahead of the campaign, which shows with his desperate attempts to control the debates model and venue. He knows he wont have the likes of Calandra or Poilievre to chirp out endless talking points to kill off time. Between debates and unfolding court cases, I suspect those numbers may only get worse for Harper.

[Boges]

Harper knows Mulcair, which is why Harper is running scared ahead of the campaign, which shows with his desperate attempts to control the debates model and venue. He knows he wont have the likes of Calandra or Poilievre to chirp out endless talking points to kill off time. Between debates and unfolding court cases, I suspect those numbers may only get worse for Harper.

If that was the case, why have we not seen an ad showing people reviewing Mulclair's resume or something similar. The CPC's attack machine has been exclusively focused on JT. Did it work and now they have to focus their attention on the Dippers?

Or are these polls just Alberta elections bumps. We'll see I suppose. But as KeepitSimple points out, how many Blue Liberals are willing to allow the NDP take control of the country?

[On Guard for Thee]

If that was the case, why have we not seen an ad showing people reviewing Mulclair's resume or something similar. The CPC's attack machine has been exclusively focused on JT. Did it work and now they have to focus their attention on the Dippers?

Or are these polls just Alberta elections bumps. We'll see I suppose. But as KeepitSimple points out, how many Blue Liberals are willing to allow the NDP take control of the country?

I suspect Harpers team misjudged things a bit when they put their pre campaign campaign strategy. i.e. they focused their sights on JT. They will likely look towards adjusting that if the numbers stay as they are. They could even slide more due to ads like the beheading video.

[PrimeNumber]

If that was the case, why have we not seen an ad showing people reviewing Mulclair's resume or something similar. The CPC's attack machine has been exclusively focused on JT. Did it work and now they have to focus their attention on the Dippers?

Or are these polls just Alberta elections bumps. We'll see I suppose. But as KeepitSimple points out, how many Blue Liberals are willing to allow the NDP take control of the country?

I think the NDP's surge has literally nothing to do with the Cons attack ads. Harper lost support to the NDP because people really just don't like him and Trudeau lost a lot of support to the NDP for supporting bill c-51. It really is that simple. Now both Trudeau and Harper have to come up with something to wow the Canadian public or they are done. After you include the cons latest scandals they are more than likely dropping even further behind. No amount of terriblely thought out attack ads will save them from the hole they have been digging themselves.

[Boges]

I think the NDP's surge has literally nothing to do with the Cons attack ads. Harper lost support to the NDP because people really just don't like him and Trudeau lost a lot of support to the NDP for supporting bill c-51. It really is that simple. Now both Trudeau and Harper have to come up with something to wow the Canadian public or they are done. After you include the cons latest scandals they are more than likely dropping even further behind. No amount of terriblely thought out attack ads will save them from the hole they have been digging themselves.

Is that a Prime Minister Mulclair prediction?

[cybercoma]

So these numbers don't include Del Mastro's walk of shame. The actual Conservative figures are, likely, (1-2%?) lower.

Del Mastro's walk of shame and the Conservative Party using ISIL propaganda and prisoners of war to attack Trudeau. I think that's going to hurt them more.

[cybercoma]

There sure are a lot of scandals and resignations in the papers these days, though.

Oh. You haven't heard? That's because Harper has no idea what's going on in his party. CPC partisans call that "strong leadership."

[cybercoma]

308 aggregate polling: June 29th projection... inclusive of polling to June 23rd

You mean Eric came back from vacation and 308 finally caught up with the polls? But, two weeks ago they said the Conservatives were in the lead. Surely this must be a mistake.

[Keepitsimple]

It keeps getting interestinger and interestinger. As many have said, nobody's looked at the NDP yet.......and there are a number of hills for Mulcair to climb. They are all out there - but have not been under the magnified scrutiny that will come as we approach the election. To name a few:

1) The realization that the NDP is a Quebec-centric party that will have a hefty portion of their MPs hailing from Quebec. The ROC is tired of pandering to Quebec - as Mulcair will need to do. He has a tough balancing act ahead of him.

2) National Unity - the Liberals will try to make hay with the NDP's Sherbrooke Declaration of 50% plus 1 to separate. That spotlight also will not play well in the ROC.

3) Ethics - the NDP have their own issues with over $2 million owed back to Parliament through two separate breeches of legislation.

4) Of 43 Free Trade deals - the NDP has opposed 41. It's a tough record to defend.

5) $15 a day Daycare is a major plank - talking about where that money will come from will cause some to say "hey, wait a minute". It will be harder and harder to gloss over where the money will come from........and the fact that taxes are going up.

I'm sure there are plenty more - but the point is, eventually Mulcair will be playing defense........as opposed to just sitting back and taking potshots at Harper.

[cybercoma]

1) The realization that the NDP is a Quebec-centric party that will have a hefty portion of their MPs hailing from Quebec. The ROC is tired of pandering to Quebec - as Mulcair will need to do. He has a tough balancing act ahead of him.

Of all the stupid arguments I've ever seen....this takes the god damned cake.

Quebec has a very large portion of the seats in the legislature (over 25%) because they have the second largest population in the country and here you are ignorantly dismissing an entire province. More importantly, they elected a national party last time around, as opposed to the separatists they'd been electing for 20 years prior.

Your comment here is nothing but biased disdain for Québec. What a stupid statement.

[Keepitsimple]

Of all the stupid arguments I've ever seen....this takes the god damned cake.

Quebec has a very large portion of the seats in the legislature (over 25%) because they have the second largest population in the country and here you are ignorantly dismissing an entire province. More importantly, they elected a national party last time around, as opposed to the separatists they'd been electing for 20 years prior.

Your comment here is nothing but biased disdain for Québec. What a stupid statement.

The stupidity does not seem to be mine - I'll assume that's because you are unaware that of the 95 MPs that form the NDP caucus, 54 are from Quebec. Do you not think that some voters in the ROC might think the NDP would give Quebec some sort of special treatment to protect its base? Or would you blindly trust Thomas Mulcair? Seems to me several posters have continually accused Stephen Harper of pandering to his base in Alberta - perhaps you were even one of them.

[Michael Hardner]

Oh. You haven't heard? That's because Harper has no idea what's going on in his party. CPC partisans call that "strong leadership."

That's too bad, such an honest man caught up in all of this. I guess that means he's naive ? What do you think ?

[cybercoma]

The stupidity does not seem to be mine - I'll assume that's because you are unaware that of the 95 MPs that form the NDP caucus, 54 are from Quebec. Do you not think that some voters in the ROC might think the NDP would give Quebec some sort of special treatment to protect its base? Or would you blindly trust Thomas Mulcair? Seems to me several posters have continually accused Stephen Harper of pandering to his base in Alberta - perhaps you were even one of them.

The NDP didn't even have a provincial party in Quebec when it won all those seats and you're trying to make an argument that they're a "Quebec party." It's absurd nonsense. They're a national party. Always have been. Show me one iota of preferential treatment they've proposed for Québec. Edited June 29, 2015 by cybercoma

[Keepitsimple]

The NDP didn't even have a provincial party in Quebec when it won all those seats and you're trying to make an argument that they're a "Quebec party." It's absurd nonsense. They're a national party. Always have been. Show me one iota of preferential treatment they've proposed for Québec.

Opposing the Clarity Act with the Sherbrooke Declaration. 50% plus one to trigger separation.

I didn't say they were a "Quebec Party" - they've always tried to be a National Party. I said that with almost 60% of their MPs coming from Quebec, some voters will rightly see them as having to protect that voting base with favouritism - just like Harper is accused of favouring the West. Oh - by the way - I was born and raised in Montreal and still return 3 or 4 times a year.....so I can see both sides quite clearly.

Edited June 29, 2015 by Keepitsimple

[PrimeNumber]

Is that a Prime Minister Mulclair prediction?

That's a if the NDP don't do anything stupid and the cons and libs continue to do so, they may just hand it to him on a silver plate predicition.

In the end I think it will have less to do with Muclairs policies as it does with Harpers actions.

[PIK]

The reason they are going after JT because they know the NDP numbers will not hold. JT can still rise in the polls.

[dre]

I like these polls!

I think we are gonna get a nice little grid-locked minority situation, and an ended to the string of irrational ideology based legislation we have been seeing over the last couple of years.