cybercoma Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Another election down and the polls conducted in the final week were right on the money. Seat Projections, however, were not. Éric Grenier gives a more thorough explanation of the numbers than I can muster the time for right now. A good read if you've been following the pollsters this election. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-oct20-1.3279691 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Why is Harper staying on as MP? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Why is Harper staying on as MP? From what I heard last night, he doesn't want to come off as petulant like Prentice did. He definitely did not want to go out on a "You won't have Harper to kick around anymore" note, and that's to his credit. He may spend his time as a consigliere to the new leader, but I think he'll put in a year or two, and then quietly resign.The only way it might happen sooner is if someone is elected leader who does not have a seat needs a safe riding to run in a byelection in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Another election down and the polls conducted in the final week were right on the money. Seat Projections, however, were not. Éric Grenier gives a more thorough explanation of the numbers than I can muster the time for right now. A good read if you've been following the pollsters this election. http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-grenier-polls-oct20-1.3279691 The seat projections were out because everyone believed that the Tories would still hang on to some of their vote efficiency. The underestimated the extent of the NDP collapse, not just in ridings they held, but more importantly in ridings where there was expectation of vote splits favorable to the Tories. I suspect when the numbers are fully crunched, it will come out that the Liberals and Tories had near equal vote efficiency, and thus the Liberals could win a solid majority with similar popular vote levels to the Tories in 2011. Of course, with the possibility of a new electoral system for the next election, the real work may be in trying to figure out how to feed FPTP numbers into another model. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Why is Harper staying on as MP? He should stay on as MP. His constituents soundly chose him as their representative and he should fulfill that role. To force them into another election right away is ridiculous. Jim Prentice was a big baby. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icebound Posted October 20, 2015 Report Share Posted October 20, 2015 Icebound Full Member Posted Yesterday, 11:56 PM ReeferMadness, on 19 Oct 2015 - 5:38 PM, said: I've heard a number of problems about---SNIP--- There are reports in aboriginal ridings that Elections Canada showed up with, like, 400 ballots... where several thousand eligible voters showed up. Edited by Charles Anthony, Today, 10:35 AM. [---SNIP---] Quote MultiQuote Edit Report NOW... this is interesting.... A moderator would edit MY post, but only by changing the quotation to which I replied. Am I missing some rule that specifies which parts of a post I am not allowed to keep, when replying to it in a "quote"? Not like it was a very LONG quote. The entire post to which I originally replied, is here: http://www.mapleleafweb.com/forums/topic/18384-federal-election-polls/page-375#entry1106874 ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kageshima Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Well, the only jurisdiction in Canada today that can be remotely considered "conservative" is Sask, and even THAT has Liberal roots That's wrong to assume. Many parts of BC, Manitoba, and Ontario are pretty conservative. Alberta is very conservative. The provincial NDP won because they had a good campaign, voters were frustrated at the PCs, and the vote of the Right was split between the Wildrose and the Progressive Conservatives, while the vote of the Left rallied behind them. Given the way they're despised by many here right now, I sort of doubt they'll get another mandate. This was further affirmed by the fact that, while the Liberals made some minor ground here federally, the vast majority of the province was still painted blue. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hudson Jones Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Why is Harper staying on as MP? Because he enjoys Nenshi as his mayor and Notley as his premier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angrypenguin Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 He should stay on as MP. His constituents soundly chose him as their representative and he should fulfill that role. To force them into another election right away is ridiculous. Jim Prentice was a big baby. I can't imagine how he will feel sitting through a majority liberal government as the LPC rips his agenda right out in front of him. Taxes taxes taxes and the bloat of government will drive him (and me) up the wall. I haven't seen Trudedopes victory speech yet because I can't stand that motherblipper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpankyMcFarland Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 Harper is doing the right thing by staying on and providing continuity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybercoma Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 If there was any confusion about the accuracy of the polls, Nik Nanos was almost perfect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToadBrother Posted October 21, 2015 Report Share Posted October 21, 2015 I can't imagine how he will feel sitting through a majority liberal government as the LPC rips his agenda right out in front of him. Taxes taxes taxes and the bloat of government will drive him (and me) up the wall. I haven't seen Trudedopes victory speech yet because I can't stand that motherblipper. I don't understand why this is an issue in Canada. In Britain former PMs often remain in Parliament for years after their defeat. Gordon Brown, for instance, remained the member for his constituency for five years after Labour's defeat in 2010 (he didn't run in this year's election). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 (edited) The Honeymoon is OVER!!!! https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/12/10/support-for-federal-liberals-plummets-new-poll-shows.html Quote OTTAWA—After soaring in public approval for more than a year, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals tumbled last month in a new poll that reflects a prime minister and key ministers struggling to balance ambitious electoral promises and the hard realities of governing. A new Forum Research poll conducted at the beginning of the week shows the Liberals dropped from 51 per cent a month ago to 42 per cent nationally. Much of the erosion for the federal Liberals appears to have come in B.C. and Ontario, where the Liberals and the Conservatives find themselves nearly tied for support. In the past month, the Conservatives’ national approval rating under interim leader Rona Ambrose ticked up to 34 per cent from 28. That narrows a recent gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives — who do not yet have a permanent replacement for Stephen Harper — from 23 percentage points to just eight points. Remember when ya'll were lauding a leader who had good poll numbers against two parties without permanent leaders? Well now he's only a few points ahead of a party that won't have their leader until the middle of next year. Edited December 12, 2016 by Boges Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
segnosaur Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, Boges said: The Honeymoon is OVER!!!! https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/12/10/support-for-federal-liberals-plummets-new-poll-shows.html Keep in mind that while the Liberal's approval ratings have fallen from > 50% to 42%, that is still higher than the percentage of popular vote they got in the last election. Basically it looks like the Liberal core support (i.e. the ones who saw their impractical election promises and still voted for them) is still intact, and what you have are those who thought they'd "Give the Liberals a chance" are the ones saying "OK, we gave them a chance. They disappointed.") Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Forum is also not the most reputable polling firm. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dialamah Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 4 minutes ago, Smallc said: Forum is also not the most reputable polling firm. It's extremely reputable if it supports any anti-JT/Liberal argument. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 12, 2016 Report Share Posted December 12, 2016 Now I'm not saying this hasn't happened - in fact it could have, given that I have the same mixed feelings I often did with Harper at the moment. I just want someone else to tell me that it's happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 So apparently, Nanos says no change (or so I read elsewhere). I'm far more inclined to believe them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boges Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 21 minutes ago, Smallc said: So apparently, Nanos says no change (or so I read elsewhere). I'm far more inclined to believe them. No cite, or comparison of numbers used? This is obviously just an early sign that JT's not going to be able to achieve unchallenged popularity forever. He's have an awful last quarter of 2016. I'm skeptical of any poll TBH, but I can't ignore that they seem to change the narrative. See Ontario's Kathleen Wynne being the least popular Premiere in the country, thanks to polling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I can't find a cite - I'm going by what I read on skyscraperpage. When I find a source I'll post it. btw, no reasons to doubt Nanos. Lots of reason to doubt forum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
segnosaur Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 53 minutes ago, Smallc said: So apparently, Nanos says no change (or so I read elsewhere). I'm far more inclined to believe them. .... I can't find a cite - I'm going by what I read on skyscraperpage. When I find a source I'll post it. Its quite possible that such a poll by Nanos exists. However, if you find the reference for it, I'd suggest looking at 2 things: 1) When was the poll taken. After all, Trudeau has done a few things that might have affected his popularity in the past month... the pipeline announcements might anger both environmentalists (who wanted no pipelines) and supporters of the oil industry (who wanted more pipelines). Then there was his Castro gaff, which (while not a major issue) might have chipped away at some of his support. The poll referenced above was taken in early december, so it would have reflected those events. Any poll taken more than a month before that could be considered out of date. - What question is the Nanos poll asking. After all, if you ask a question like "do you approve of the job Trudeau is doing", you are going to get a different answer than if you ask "would you vote for Trudeau". Here's something else to consider... Forum research also did a poll in June 2016, when they showed Trudeau sitting at a 57% approval rating. If your argument is that they are somehow biased, then you have to ask yourself why they would show his approval at such a high rating in June and only now show it dipping. https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/06/10/elbowgate-did-nothing-to-hurt-trudeaus-popularity-forum-poll-says.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 I'm not accusing them of bias - they're just not as reliable of a pollster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 http://nanosresearch.com/ its their weekly survey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
segnosaur Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 21 minutes ago, Smallc said: http://nanosresearch.com/ its their weekly survey The questions appearing on that survey seem to be different than the ones asked in the Forum poll. (At least from what I understand.) The Forum poll asked about approval... the Nanos weekly survey seemed to have a question on preferred PM. While the 2 might be similar in concept, I'm not sure if I'd consider them equivalent. After all, its possible for someone to disapprove of a politician and still vote for them because they're "best of a bad lot". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smallc Posted December 14, 2016 Report Share Posted December 14, 2016 (edited) 17 minutes ago, segnosaur said: The questions appearing on that survey seem to be different than the ones asked in the Forum poll. (At least from what I understand.) The Forum poll asked about approval... the Nanos weekly survey seemed to have a question on preferred PM. While the 2 might be similar in concept, I'm not sure if I'd consider them equivalent. After all, its possible for someone to disapprove of a politician and still vote for them because they're "best of a bad lot". The important thing is the change - there's none in the Nanos poll. Edited December 14, 2016 by Smallc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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