Federal Election Polls

[Harry]

Biggest baffoon in the mainstream press, Harper's lapdog L Ian MacDonald. Constant pathetic nonsensical dribble.

How out of touch can one be?

Jack-mania unlikely to lead to NDP seats

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Jack+mania+unlikely+lead+seats/4644281/story.html

Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry

[Vancouver King]

and this latest poll agrees with that of Angus Reids...

We are likely in the midst of the most significant voter shift in living memory. Finally, a true left of centre alternative emerges as Liberals flirt with 3rd party status. Such is the Grit reward for always campaigning from the left but always ruling from the right.

If the Quebec numbers hold, expect enhanced NDP support elsewhere. As unlikely as it might seem, the surging New Democrats appear to be also stealing votes from Conservatives - now reduced to mid 30% levels and all but assured of forming another minority.

It took weeks for anything of consequence to occur in this election - who would have guessed the Bloc's disintegrating campaign would give Jack Layton a real shot as Opposition Leader?

[Bryan]

...Harper's lapdog L Ian MacDonald.

MacDonald has not been any kind of friend of Harper.

[Bryan]

What an absurd comment. Minority governments are for people who want to work together. People like Harper need to get out of the way and let more civil people run the show.

The opposition were the ones who refused to work with the elected government, and who wouldn't show a shred of civility. Bunch of shrieking monkeys.

[Harry]

Since the election was called has Harper gone up anywhere, anytime in the polls?

Nanos - April 20

C - 39.%, Down 0.1%

L - 26.7%, Down 1.7%

N - 22.1%, Up 2.3%

B - 7.5%, Down 0.2%

G - 3.4%, Down 0.5%

U - 15.4%

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110420-BallotE.pdf

[Evening Star]

And so to be clear, while I have voted NDP federally and will likely do so again, I would actually be a little concerned if they became dominant and we lost the LPC. The potential absence of a strong federalist party is worrying to me, as well as the NDP's support for expanding the Bill 101 BS. The current trends are fascinating though. (Ideally, I'd like to have a three- or four-party system where the parties are a little more evenly balanced in strength. Perhaps that's where we're headed?)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/ndp-vows-are-spoken-to-be-broken/article1991564/

See, I think the Liberal Party does have a distinct set of principles that it stands for. (Some of them might be hard to notice because the Liberals have been so dominant throughout Canadian history that some Liberal values - bilingualism and multiculturalism for example - have become 'Canadian values'.) Liberals don't always live up to them but no party does. For instance, the Liberal principle of relatively centralized federalism is distinct from the decentralist approach of the PCs/CPC or the 'asymmetrical federalism' espoused by the NDP. Their approach to issues like funding research and development and scholarship is notably different from either the Conservative approach (which tends to favour overtly market-oriented work) or the NDP's approach (which tends to favour work with some social justice or environmental angle afaict). For one thing, it just seems to be a greater priority for the Liberals than for the other parties.

Conservatives would probably love nothing more than for the centrist party to disappear and to have a polarized two-party system (where btw the party that represents/advocates for capital is more likely to have an advantage than a party that identifies with labour).

Edited April 21, 2011 by Evening Star

[Smallc]

The opposition were the ones who refused to work with the elected government,

There's no elected government, and that isn't how it works.

[Harry]

Don't know how many of you are aware of a website entitled Pundit's Guide but it is an excellent resource for accessing recent historical election information: www.punditsguide.com

NDP Leading in Quebec: If this really changes everything, what changes exactly?

But to go around the Bloc – the Bloc Québécois ! – well this is huge for the country. And not all the implications of that have sunk in yet.

For example, if the Bloc was the third rail in coalition math and coalition politics before, but it's much less of a factor all of a sudden, well that has a significant impact on the national debate, doesn't it.

Next comes the impact on the Conservatives' hoped-for majority. Suddenly it's not a dozen extra seats required, but two dozen. A much taller order.

Also in the mix is the impact on the Liberal Party's likely succession planning, soon or in the future. With Martin Cauchon out of the game, and now probably Justin Trudeau as well, will the party have anyone to turn towards, and will anyone want the now-truly-serious rebuilding job. Will the party be able to elect any new faces from Montréal, such as Noushig Eloyan in Ahuntsic, or Karine Joizil in the suddenly vacant seat of Laval-Les Îles?

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2011/04/ndp-leading-in-quebec-if-this-really-changes-everything-what-changes-exactly/

[M.Dancer]

Biggest baffoon in the mainstream press, Harper's lapdog L Ian MacDonald. Constant pathetic nonsensical dribble.

How out of touch can one be?

Well my opinion can change. I forerly said that the NDP will be lucky to hold on to their one seat. I now strongly believe they will be lucky to have two...a 100% increase!

[Harry]

Well my opinion can change. I forerly said that the NDP will be lucky to hold on to their one seat. I now strongly believe they will be lucky to have two...a 100% increase!

Good morning M Dancer, it's a new day - have a good one!

[Molly]

Such is the Grit reward for always campaigning from the left but always ruling from the right.

I don't really buy that so-called truism.

The LPC truly is, and has been a party more of the right than of the left, but has always had to differentiate itself from the only other truly credible alternative- the other right wing party. If that leads to an apparent emphasis on the left-ish principles, that's life.

In order to define what one is, one must define what one is not.

If the other credible party was to their left, they'd be 'campaigning from the right, and governing from the left'... like Thatcher did in Saskatchewan.

[Evening Star]

Do you think the LPC has been right of centre compared to the political spectra of other English-speaking democracies?

I don't really buy that so-called truism.

The LPC truly is, and has been a party more of the right than of the left, but has always had to differentiate itself from the only other truly credible alternative- the other right wing party. If that leads to an apparent emphasis on the left-ish principles, that's life.

In order to define what one is, one must define what one is not.

If the other credible party was to their left, they'd be 'campaigning from the right, and governing from the left'... like Thatcher did in Saskatchewan.

[ToadBrother]

I don't think harpers sudden return to the "coalition" conspiracy scare tactic will gain him any new support, 60% of canadians reject him so they aren't likely to see a coalition or cooperative or alliance against harper as a bad thing...

Even at the height of the 2008 Coalition, support was split evenly. This idea that Canadians en masse would revolt against a Coalition was a Tory-manufactured fantasy.

I'm almost wondering if this is what is behind the NDP's massive surge in Quebec. I wonder if a lot of Quebecers are looking at a coalition and saying "We can either vote Bloc and be kept out of any coalition government, or we can vote NDP, maintain our values, and be a major voice in a coalition."

[Harry]

Interesting analysis TB. You may well be correct.

[ToadBrother]

The opposition were the ones who refused to work with the elected government, and who wouldn't show a shred of civility. Bunch of shrieking monkeys.

I think an argument can be made that the Tories were unwilling to do what the majority of Parliament wanted. Why do Tories hate democracy so much? The Government is merely the Government, it does not gain some special right to do what it likes.

[M.Dancer]

Even at the height of the 2008 Coalition, support was split evenly. This idea that Canadians en masse would revolt against a Coalition was a Tory-manufactured fantasy.

The numbers are different depending on the question

If the Tories fall: 37% would allow the opposition to form a coalition government; 32% would hold a new federal election

57% are worried about the Bloc Québécois becoming involved in the federal government; 64% would not be comfortable with Stéphane Dion becoming Canada’s Prime Minister

Read more: http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/posted/archive/2008/12/03/canadian-divided-on-toppling-government-poll.aspx#ixzz1KALEs4O3

[ToadBrother]

Interesting analysis TB. You may well be correct.

There has to be some logic to this. The NDP wasn't even a blip ten years ago in Quebec. Even in 2008, the NDP ultimately polled at 12%. If these numbers hold firm, it means they've almost trebled support in Quebec in the space of two and a half years. I don't care what end of the political spectrum you come from, that's massive growth.

[jbg]

Ideally, I'd like to have a three- or four-party system where the parties are a little more evenly balanced in strength. Perhaps that's where we're headed?

I think that arrangement is inherently unstable and unsustainable.

[wyly]

I think that arrangement is inherently unstable and unsustainable.

and a one party state is the most stable and most sustainable so if that's want you prefer...

more is better, it's more democratic, if we have 4 parties and the usa has 2 then that would make canada twice as democratic than the the usa...

[jbg]

more is better, it's more democratic, if we have 4 parties and the usa has 2 then that would make canada twice as democratic than the the usa...

Unless you enjoy Harper or Ignatieff (take your pick) being able to blame non-feasance on the failure of another party to agree with him on issues. That's the greatest free pass in the world.

[August1991]

There has to be some logic to this. The NDP wasn't even a blip ten years ago in Quebec. Even in 2008, the NDP ultimately polled at 12%. If these numbers hold firm, it means they've almost trebled support in Quebec in the space of two and a half years. I don't care what end of the political spectrum you come from, that's massive growth.

I started a thread on this question because it is so important to the current federal election and what it says about the political climate in Quebec.

TB, your hatred of Harper is blinding you. This surge of NDP in Quebec is not due to Harper. The simple fact is that many Quebecrs are tired of the National Question and they are looking for any reasonable alternative to the traditional sovereigntists/federalists. They tried the ADQ, Harper's Conservatives and now they are trying the NDP and Legault. The federal NDP is an urban equivalent to the ADQ.

The question is whether this will translate into NDP seats. With numbers like this, it will have to.

[Harry]

August, buzz off with your hatred comments. You obviously hate a lot, but I have never heard TB express hatred.

For the first time ever, the NDP has now pulled ahead of the Liberals. Let's see what Layton does next.

C - 36%

N - 25%, now only 11% behind the Cons. ,

L - 23%

B - 6%

G - 6%

Jack finds his groove, NDP in reach of official opposition, says new Forum Research poll

A campaign that has until now been on ‘auto-pilot’ is suddenly turning into an electrifying run to the finish with a change so dramatic for the NDP that it could be in reach of becoming the official opposition, a Forum Research poll done in collaboration with The Hill Times suggests.

A campaign that has until now been on “auto-pilot” is suddenly turning into an electrifying run to the finish with a change so dramatic for the NDP that it could be in reach of becoming the official opposition, a Forum Research poll done in collaboration with The Hill Times suggests.

The NDP has made its largest gains in Quebec, with an astonishing surge past the Bloc Quebecois in decided and leaning voter support, but the party has also moved up in British Columbia, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba, where a rise in support can turn into new House of Commons seats for the party.

“This race has been on auto-pilot for three weeks, now we have some action and movement,” said Forum Research President Lorne Bozinoff, adding that NDP Leader Jack Layton’s performance in both the French and English televised debates last week likely started the groundswell, particularly in Quebec.

“It was probably sparked by the debate, and has continued to grow,” Mr. Bozinoff told The Hill Times.

http://www.hilltimes.com/dailyupdate/view/jack_finds_his_groove_ndp_in_reach_of_official_opposition_says_new_forum_research_poll_04-21-2011

Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry

[Molly]

Do you think the LPC has been right of centre compared to the political spectra of other English-speaking democracies?

Which term and which other democracies? There is no rational yes/no answer. The question is better phrased as "Has Canada been ...etc.".

Spectrum-wise, we all know that the LPC tends to the social left and the economic right in Canada.

Btw, I was expecting to be challenged on that description of the Thatcher Liberals, because they were a very right-wing lot. But then, the Romanow NDP was pretty darned right wing, too. (And both knew all about dirty tricks and political favoritism. Our favorite man in the news, Brad Trost, described Saskatchewan politics as blood sport. I can agree with that.)

Edited April 21, 2011 by Molly

[August1991]

August, buzz off with your hatred comments. You obviously hate a lot, but I have never heard TB express hatred.

Buzz off?

---

Harry, TB doesn't like Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. He would prefer to see a coalition take power to ensure that Stephen Harper is no longer PM. TB is applying this logic to explain the appparent surge of NDP support in Quebec. But that logic makes no sense because it does not explain why the Bloc is bleeding support to the NDP.

After all, a vote for the Bloc is just as much a vote for the coalition as a vote for the NDP. As to opposing Harper, that's Duceppe's constant line now. He is saying that vote for the NDP will split Quebec and allow Harper to win a majority. Duceppe is appealing to Quebecers to stay solidaire and vote Bloc.

My argument, whether you like it or not, is that many Quebecers for some time now are seeking some way out of this National Question impasse. The NDP is the alternative in this election. For all I know, this may continue into the future. There are many ridings in Montreal that - if not for the question of Quebec independence - would be easy NDP wins. I doubt it however because the NDP's position on Quebec is filled with so many contradictions.

[Harry]

---

Harry, TB doesn't like Stephen Harper and the Conservatives. He would prefer to see a coalition take power to ensure that Stephen Harper is no longer PM. TB is applying this logic to explain the appparent surge of NDP support in Quebec. But that logic makes no sense because it does not explain why the Bloc is bleeding support to the NDP.

After all, a vote for the Bloc is just as much a vote for the coalition as a vote for the NDP. As to opposing Harper, that's Duceppe's constant line now. He is saying that vote for the NDP will split Quebec and allow Harper to win a majority. Duceppe is appealing to Quebecers to stay solidaire and vote Bloc.

My argument, whether you like it or not, is that many Quebecers for some time now are seeking some way out of this National Question impasse. The NDP is the alternative in this election. For all I know, this may continue into the future. There are many ridings in Montreal that - if not for the question of Quebec independence - would be easy NDP wins. I doubt it however because the NDP's position on Quebec is filled with so many contradictions.

Quebeckers are probably more shrewd than that. Quebeckers dislike Harper, as the vast majority of Canadians do, are fed up with the Bloc nationalistic squabbles, yet want be part of the power in Ottawa, so Quebeckers have decided to join the NPD who wilI be part of the power in Ottawa, either on their own, or as part of the coalition which the Bloc is not able to do. Quebeckers are some of the smartest politicos in Canada, bar none. TB is quite accurate with his assessment of the Quebec situation and the reason for the major shift in support to the NPD in Quebec.

And now let's get ready for the ripple effect across the rest of the country.

Edited April 21, 2011 by Harry