Federal Election Polls

[Evening Star]

Having said that:

i) Trudeau governed for 15 years, making many profound changes to the country, before his successor was 'annihilated'. I have to assume that Trudeau was ready to retire anyway by that point. Mulroney governed for 8 (and again, it was his lesser successor who was 'annihilated'). We are still living with many of the changes they created.

ii) Politicians don't always behave logically.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Evening Star

[blueblood]

Having said that:

i) Trudeau governed for 15 years, making many profound changes to the country, before his successor was 'annihilated'. I have to assume that Trudeau was ready to retire anyway by that point. Mulroney governed for 8 (and again, it was his lesser successor who was 'annihilated'). We are still living with many of the changes they created.

ii) Politicians don't always behave logically.

Yet chretien had a long majority term as well until his caucus tossed him out. Its not the pm as a person who runs the show, its the party. As witnessed with chretien, the leader can be tossed out in a majority situation at will. So why would the tory party want to lose power when they could be like their alberta friends and be boring and change leaders when they see fit?

[nittanylionstorm07]

Weren't some more polls supposed to come out today? I remember CROP, and maybe Leger?

[Vancouver King]

A vote for the NDP just splits riding results. Duceppe knows this. Liberals know this. And Harper knew this from the beginning.

Like it or not, a strong NDP result is synonym with a Harper majority.

Nonsense. Ekos' latest numbers include seat projections showing outright Con losses and this mornings Nanos results show Tories down to 37%. Today's new attack ad aimed at Layton tells all who will think that panic has broken out in the Tory war room.

Your Harper envy clouds your reason.

[Harry]

Well said.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Nonsense. Ekos' latest numbers include seat projections showing outright Con losses and this mornings Nanos results show Tories down to 37%. Today's new attack ad aimed at Layton tells all who will think that panic has broken out in the Tory war room.

Your Harper envy clouds your reason.

All of these delusional Tory and Lib supporters don't seem to understand that once the NDP breaks a certain threshold and the Libs drop below another one, it becomes meaningless to try to use past results of vote splitting/spreading to justify a Tory majority.

Quebec is about to be painted orange. The Atlantic provinces, SK/MB, and BC are showing a huge upsurge in the NDP with the NDP fighting tooth and nail with the Tories. Alberta should see one more Tory seat swing to the NDP. Only Ontario is the last bastion of the Liberals' support, and the NDP is chipping away at that by the day.

[TimG]

All of these delusional Tory and Lib supporters don't seem to understand that once the NDP breaks a certain threshold and the Libs drop below another one, it becomes meaningless to try to use past results of vote splitting/spreading to justify a Tory majority.

So instead of using past results to estimate future results we should be pulling numbers out of thin air and claiming there is a connection to reality?

[nittanylionstorm07]

So instead of using past results to estimate future results we should be pulling numbers out of thin air and claiming there is a connection to reality?

Way to twist what I said completely. It's okay to use past results as long as they and current polls can be understood in context. Remember... NOTHING LIKE THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN CANADIAN ELECTION HISTORY. So, naturally, this would mean that a new dynamic will be found in the results of seats.

If, national percentage wise, the distribution is roughly 36-38% CPC/27-29% NDP/18-20% LIB/5-7% BQ like it's headed towards, there is absolutely no way the Liberals will be the second place party at all.. and there is no way the NDP will only grab "a couple of seats" like delusional Tory/Lib supports insist. There is also no way the Tories form a majority.

Why?

Distribution of seats. Most of the Tories' support is coming from stronghold Inland BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and rural Manitoba seats. Most of the Liberals' support is coming from Ontario. Everything else, the NDP is showing strength in which proves that this election will introduce a new wave of politics to Canada that will potentially blow out preexisting notions of election/seat distribution.

[Harry]

NDP surge continues. Layton is almost equal with Harper now.

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper ahead, Layton closes gap, Ignatieff a distant third

Harper 88.1, Down 1.9

Layton - 72.9, Up 6.3

Ignatieff - 44.4, Up 7.7

Duceppe - 11.2, Down 4.1

May - 7.8, Down 1.3

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110421-LeadershipE.pdf

Edited April 22, 2011 by Harry

[punked]

NDP surge continues. Layton is almost equal with Harper now.

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper ahead, Layton closes gap, Ignatieff a distant third

Harper 88.1, Down 1.9

Layton - 72.9, Up 6.3

Ignatieff - 44.4, Up 7.7

Duceppe - 11.2, Down 4.1

May - 7.8, Down 1.3

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110421-LeadershipE.pdf

That is where the Cons fear comes from, not poll numbers but leadership numbers. Layton is 15 down of Harper and 30 in from of Iggy. Leadership numbers are usually the start to poll movement. Crazy I can't believe Iggy took the day off.

Edited April 22, 2011 by punked

[nittanylionstorm07]

NDP surge continues. Layton is almost equal with Harper now.

Nanos Leadership Index

Harper ahead, Layton closes gap, Ignatieff a distant third

Harper 88.1, Down 1.9

Layton - 72.9, Up 6.3

Ignatieff - 44.4, Up 7.7

Duceppe - 11.2, Down 4.1

May - 7.8, Down 1.3

http://www.nanosresearch.com/election2011/20110421-LeadershipE.pdf

That makes more sense than yesterday's poll where there was that small "blip" across the charts against the NDP and for the Cons (too much Con sampling in that day's poll?). That poll is still in the three-day rotation until tomorrow though, and it'll be interesting to see how much it goes back up then.

[punked]

Not even waiting until after the election the Liberals are already blaming each other. Kinsella has brought out the big knife for Iggy's back.

Ignatieff and his Super-Smart Senior Staff (4S, for short) for having the temerity to suggest, out loud, that Messrs. Chretien, Broadbent and Romanow were right.“I have no relationship with Warren Kinsella,” sniffed the fellow for whom I’d busted my hump for a couple years, and that was that. My sin? Agreeing with, you know, the most successful Liberal leader in history: suggesting that those of us who opposed Conservatives clearly needed to get together if we were ever to defeat Conservatives. And, more broadly, that Canada – like other democracies around the world – seemed to be heading towards a binary political universe, whether the political classes approved or not.

What now? Well, that’s a really good question. If the NDP make history, and carry their current popularity past the weekend and into next week, they could very well form the Official Opposition. The instant that happens, as I told this PostMedia reporter yesterday in a long chat, the aforementioned Ignatieff and 4S are gone. They’ll all have to resign on election night if they are to escape the enraged, pitchfork-wielding grassroots Grits. Even in 1984′s rout we held onto Opposition status. With that gone – and the staff, and budget and influence that brings – it will be a long, hard slog back.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/kcccc-day-28-no-schadenfreude-here-well-maybe-a-little-and-some-soul-baring/

[nittanylionstorm07]

Not even waiting until after the election the Liberals are already blaming each other. Kinsella has brought out the big knife for Iggy's back.

http://warrenkinsella.com/2011/04/kcccc-day-28-no-schadenfreude-here-well-maybe-a-little-and-some-soul-baring/

Wouldn't it be great if the last days of this election were dominated by the NDP surge and Liberals tearing down Iggy?

Say goodbye to the LPC!

[punked]

Wouldn't it be great if the last days of this election were dominated by the NDP surge and Liberals tearing down Iggy?

Say goodbye to the LPC!

Forecasting their death is premature but if they keep looking to get ahead in the blame game their vote is going to be more suppressed then in 2008.

[nittanylionstorm07]

Forecasting their death is premature but if they keep looking to get ahead in the blame game their vote is going to be more suppressed then in 2008.

Perhaps, but it certainly isn't looking good... not to mention that they have no one decent to follow Iggy.

[ToadBrother]

That is where the Cons fear comes from, not poll numbers but leadership numbers. Layton is 15 down of Harper and 30 in from of Iggy. Leadership numbers are usually the start to poll movement. Crazy I can't believe Iggy took the day off.

This election is absolute madness. Who would have ever predicted the NDP would be surging like this? Threatening the BQ in Quebec, threatening the Liberals everywhere, potential threat in many Western ridings. A week ago people were talking about Jack's health, now everyone is all but put a bloody Superman costume on him.

I would never have believed an NDP official opposition was a possibility, but now, if these trends continue over the next week, it's a very real possibility. And with that comes the very high potential that Harper is going to make some serious budgetary overtures to the NDP just to save his own skin, and prevent the even wilder notion of an NDP Prime Minister.

If this does hold out and proves to be the real thing, this is a game-changing election on the order of the 1993 election, maybe even bigger, because it suggests a major shift in electoral polarity, and the death of the last major liberal party in the Western world.

[punked]

Know what I am really liking about the NDP campaign? It is that they are taking huge chances, they aren't holding back, they are being honest and they are saying "Our leader isn't afraid to go anywhere!" That is the toughness I want in my government.

Today Jack went right into the heart of Bloc country, he showed up in Gilles Duceppe to tell the people what the NDP believe. You have to pretty big ones to go into another leaders riding. I am digging this campaign.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/CanadaVotes/News/2011/04/22/18056156.html

[Evening Star]

Three Hundred Eight is still predicting basically the same pre-election Parliament, with any gains going to the CPC...

[nittanylionstorm07]

Know what I am really liking about the NDP campaign? It is that they are taking huge chances, they aren't holding back, they are being honest and they are saying "Our leader isn't afraid to go anywhere!" That is the toughness I want in my government.

Today Jack went right into the heart of Bloc country, he showed up in Gilles Duceppe to tell the people what the NDP believe. You have to pretty big ones to go into another leaders riding. I am digging this campaign.

http://cnews.canoe.ca/CNEWS/Canada/CanadaVotes/News/2011/04/22/18056156.html

Could you imagine if Gilles Duceppe was upset in his riding by an NDP candidate?

Three Hundred Eight is still predicting basically the same pre-election Parliament, with any gains going to the CPC...

They should really just be discounted at this point. A better way to go would be to average the seat projections produced by all of the polling firms at this point.

[Harry]

Three Hundred Eight is still predicting basically the same pre-election Parliament, with any gains going to the CPC...

In lieu of the NDP surge all seat projections are basically out the window now.

[Mr.Canada]

Just my opinion here but I think Harper would rather work with Layton then Ignatieff on a personal level. Layton was the only person in the debates he would look at when they were speaking to him. I have a gut feeling he likes Layton better then the other two on a personal level. This is purely speculation.

Edited April 22, 2011 by Mr.Canada

[punked]

Three Hundred Eight is still predicting basically the same pre-election Parliament, with any gains going to the CPC...

ThreeHundredeight and election predictors are lagging indicators. Tooclosetocall (who has said his model can't predict large swings toward the NDP), election almanac and the Laurier Institute are showing the start of an NDP gain. It is still going to take 3-4 days to see all the numbers move though.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

[punked]

Just my opinion here but I think Harper would rather work with Layton then Ignatieff on a personal level. Layton was the only person in the debates he would look at when they were speaking to him. I have a gut feeling he likes Layton better then the other two on a personal level. This is purely speculation.

Well Harper and Layton actually do talk and Layton is a master of building bridges. I mean remember when Mike Savage and the Liberals had that panel on EI and walked out after one meeting while workers were falling off the rolls? Layton and Harper got together and sorted what the Liberals just wouldn't. I think Harper sees Layton as trying to push his beliefs as opposed to play politics and Harper figures "I can work with someone who just wants what he thinks is best, instead of someone who changes their mind every 5 seconds".

[nittanylionstorm07]

I just decided to go take a gander at Mr. Duceppe's riding and his previous electoral results:

In Laurier--Sainte-Marie:

Duceppe:

2004- 60.1%

2006- 54.7%

2008- 50.2%

In 2008:

Duceppe- 50.2%

Liberal (Caron)- 18.33%

NDP (Gregoire)- 17.11%

Apply the following % swing to the riding: (NDP 12.2 to 36 (+23.8) BQ 38.1 to 31 (-7.1) Lib 21.7 to 16 (-5.7)

Duceppe- 43.1%

NDP (Laverdiere)- 42.13%

Lib (Allard)- 12.11%

Starts looking very interesting....

Edited April 22, 2011 by nittanylionstorm07

[nittanylionstorm07]

ThreeHundredeight and election predictors are lagging indicators. Tooclosetocall (who has said his model can't predict large swings toward the NDP), election almanac and the Laurier Institute are showing the start of an NDP gain. It is still going to take 3-4 days to see all the numbers move though.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/

http://www.electionalmanac.com/canada/projections.php

http://www.wlu.ca/lispop/seatprojections.html

I love that random 181 number for the Tories in the electionalmanac lol