Shady Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 In the off chance Conservatives have a plurality any attempt to form a gov't will be met with opposition parties non-confidence. The only way Harper can be guaranteed a fifth term is to win a majority and that is absolutely not in the works.We were told the same thing about Cameron in the UK and Netanyahu in Israel. Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 And what happened in 2008? Mulcair declared in answer to a question about possible cooperation with a Harper minority, "not a snowball's chance in hell". Trudeau has expressed similar sentiments. Any Harper budget is unlikely and would be unceremoniously defeated. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) LIBERALS HEADING FOR A STRONG MINORITY ACCORDING TO TWO POLLS YAHOOOOooOOOOO Nanos released today October 17, 2015: Liberals - 37.0% conservatives - 30.7% NDP - 22.6% Accessible Vote – Asked a series of independent questions for each federal party, 56.0% of Canadians would consider voting for the Liberals, 41.2% would consider the NDP, 39.7% would consider the Conservatives http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151016%20Ballot%20TrackingE.pdf Leger Marketing released today Liberals - 38% (This is the highest they have been) conservatives - 30% NDP - 22% This study was conducted online across all Canadian regions with citizens who are eligible to vote in Canada. For this study, 2,086 respondents, including 996 in Quebec, 18 years of age or over, were surveyed between October 13 and October 16, 2015. http://leger360.com/admin/upload/publi_pdf/soen20151017.pdf Liberals ahead by 12% in Ontario, Liberals also ahead in Quebec ahead of NDP by 6%!!! Vicious attacks by NDP and conservatives on Liberals on Gagnier affair appears not to have fooled the voters, While religious fanatics and some wealthy and interest groups continue to support conservatives at 30% however increasing number of Canadians have indicated in many polls they wish Liberals in government as a minority government and Mr. Trudeau as their Prime Minister, Welcome Mr. Trudeau the next Prime Minister of Canada. Edited October 17, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
Exegesisme Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 My Est. of new distribution of seats on poll numbers Oct. 16. Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc% EKOS Poll numbers 32.8 22.7 34 5.1 3.4 Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST 121+-12 63+-7 147+-15 2+-1 5+-3 （EKOS poll numbers may be related to distribution of seats of each party more closely than Nanos poll numbers.） My Est. of new distribution of seats on poll numbers Oct. 13. Con% NDP% Lib% Green% Bloc% Nanos Poll numbers 29.2 24.5 36.1 4.3 5.2 Con NDP Lib Green Bloc Seats 338 My EST 87+-9 59+-7 185+-20 2+-1 5+-3 Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) Today in Halifax while hundreds of Canadians shouting Trudeau Trudeau.... he urged supporters not to become overconfident and do GO AND VOTE on Monday. He promised to replace fear with hope and hate with love. He promised to get some 350,000 children out of poverty and work hard to better the lives of middle class. He repeated to tax the wealthiest 1% in order to give tax breaks to middle class. He promised to keep income splitting for seniors. Trudeau under a liberal government will return Canada to the peaceful loving country it used to be before the demons and evil dark forces stole the country. Nanos poll released today confirms Trudeau as the favorite Prime Minister of Canada. WE WILL TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK ON MONDAY. VOTE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA. Edited October 25, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
Shady Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Today in Halifax while hundreds of Canadians shouting Trudeau Trudeau.... he urged supporters not to become overconfident and do GO AND VOTE on Monday. He promised to replace fear with hope and hate with love. He promised to get some 350,000 children out of poverty and work hard to better the lives of middle class. He repeated to tax the wealthiest 1% in order to give tax breaks to middle class. He promised to keep income splitting for seniors. Trudeau under a liberal government will return Canada to the peaceful loving country it used to be before the demons and evil dark forces stole the country. Nanos poll released today confirms Trudeau as the favorite Prime Minister of Canada. WE WILL TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK ON MONDAY. End the hate. End the divisions, End the fear, End the undemocracy. End the hypocrisy. End the conservative evil rule. VOTE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA. The only hate fear and division comes from the Harper Haters. End the undemocracy by voting huh? LOL! Quote
Topaz Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Canadians should maybe ask themselves if this is the first true and honest election for the Tories. Just look back from the very first one and all the problems that each election had. Am I wrong or right? Quote
cybercoma Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 ANGUS REID which ended up to be the closest and most accurate past two elections has just released likely its last poll:AR was no closer than many of the other pollsters, particularly Nanos, Abacus, and IPSOS. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 We are voting for the party. Leaders are just a cog in the machine and are quite expendable.I'll tell you this. I'm a supporter of the NDP. I've given them my time and money. However, the person who won the nomination in my riding is awful. If she were the only person on the ballot, I would stay home on election day. So while it may be true that you're voting for the party, the candidates matter. At least for me the candidates matter. I don't want the person representing me and my riding in Ottawa to be a tool. I want them to be able to make the case for our riding, whether that's on the floor in parliament or in caucus meetings. The NDP candidate in my riding is the absolute worst advocate out of all of them and as a result I'm breaking my party loyalty and voting for someone else. In fact, she's so awful that I've now considered withdrawing my support entirely from the party. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 How trustworthy is Nanos?The election results were within his margin of error last election. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_october_16_2015.pdf Go to page 5. Take some time, and think about what that means. All it means is that those who voted already divide exactly along the national results, which is why, unlike others, I never make claims that early voting is a sign of anything. In this case, the national result that EKOS got, which is far off from literally every other polling company, is reflected in the early vote. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Nanos didn't do bad in 2011. I think they were second best with 1.4% error (best was Angus Reid which predicted with 1% error). Ekos was the worst and I don't give much weight to what they release.Both within their respective MoE. It doesn't mean that one is more reliable than the other. Quote
angrypenguin Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Today in Halifax while hundreds of Canadians shouting Trudeau Trudeau.... he urged supporters not to become overconfident and do GO AND VOTE on Monday. He promised to replace fear with hope and hate with love. He promised to get some 350,000 children out of poverty and work hard to better the lives of middle class. He repeated to tax the wealthiest 1% in order to give tax breaks to middle class. He promised to keep income splitting for seniors. Trudeau under a liberal government will return Canada to the peaceful loving country it used to be before the demons and evil dark forces stole the country. Nanos poll released today confirms Trudeau as the favorite Prime Minister of Canada. WE WILL TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK ON MONDAY. End the hate. End the divisions, End the fear, End the undemocracy. End the hypocrisy. End the conservative evil rule. VOTE FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY OF CANADA. Quote My views are my own and not those of my employer.
Peter F Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 I'll tell you this. I'm a supporter of the NDP. I've given them my time and money. However, the person who won the nomination in my riding is awful. If she were the only person on the ballot, I would stay home on election day. So while it may be true that you're voting for the party, the candidates matter. At least for me the candidates matter. I don't want the person representing me and my riding in Ottawa to be a tool. I want them to be able to make the case for our riding, whether that's on the floor in parliament or in caucus meetings. The NDP candidate in my riding is the absolute worst advocate out of all of them and as a result I'm breaking my party loyalty and voting for someone else. In fact, she's so awful that I've now considered withdrawing my support entirely from the party. Same here! Quote A bayonet is a tool with a worker at both ends
ToadBrother Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 I'll tell you this. I'm a supporter of the NDP. I've given them my time and money. However, the person who won the nomination in my riding is awful. If she were the only person on the ballot, I would stay home on election day. So while it may be true that you're voting for the party, the candidates matter. At least for me the candidates matter. I don't want the person representing me and my riding in Ottawa to be a tool. I want them to be able to make the case for our riding, whether that's on the floor in parliament or in caucus meetings. The NDP candidate in my riding is the absolute worst advocate out of all of them and as a result I'm breaking my party loyalty and voting for someone else. In fact, she's so awful that I've now considered withdrawing my support entirely from the party. Your vote is your choice, and which party you support is yours as well. But I'm curious here. Are you blaming the party for a riding association's nomination? Or was this a parachuted candidate? If the former, other than Mulcair signing the nomination papers, which he would do for the overwhelming majority of candidates, I have a hard time seeing how the party is to blame. If it is the latter, and the candidate was dropped into the riding by the NDP, then yes, I can understand your anger. The issue of the "wisdom" of ridings was one of the chief objections to the nomination aspects of Michael Chong's bill. While in principle it seems the height of democratic intent that the local riding association be solely responsible for nominations, the reality is that riding associations sometimes select some fairly dubious candidates. We've seen a few this time, but Reform in the 1990s had some real wingnuts, and Manning's populist democratic stance meant that he didn't interfere, at least in any overt way, with nominations. Quote
Kageshima Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Worth noting is that the Nanos is increasing it's sample size as we get closer to the 19th: Readers should note that on Friday the nightly sample was doubled to 800 live interviews with a three-day rolling average of 1,600 voters (400 on Wednesday, 400 on Thursday and 800 on Friday). Interestingly enough the increase of sample size didn't change their results by much. Quote
ToadBrother Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 It looks like 308 and The Signal are coming into pretty close agreement now: ThreeHundredEight.com Liberals - 140 Conservatives - 120 NDP - 74 Bloc - 3 Greens - 1 The Signal Liberals - 140 Conservatives - 124 NDP - 71 Bloc - 2 Greens - 1 Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) Mainstream research places Liberals ahead by only 5% (only 4% if all voters) at 38%. So Liberal supporters it is not over. Go out and cast your votes on Monday. http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/canadas-choice-2015/ Edited October 17, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) It looks like 308 and The Signal are coming into pretty close agreement now: ThreeHundredEight.com Liberals - 140 Conservatives - 120 NDP - 74 Bloc - 3 Greens - 1 The Signal Liberals - 140 Conservatives - 124 NDP - 71 Bloc - 2 Greens - 1 Thanks for this. This is the best result I could hope for, A strong Liberal minority for now and once Trudeau passes his test for good transparent government then a majority for him in 2 years or so. Edited October 17, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
eyeball Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Thanks for this. This is the best result I could hope for, A strong Liberal minority for now and once Trudeau passes his test for good transparent government then a majority for him in 2 years or so. I'd rather see a weak minority and pass a test for a stable coalition government. Then a PR preferably by STV government. Quote A government without public oversight is like a nuclear plant without lead shielding.
Vancouver King Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) Thanks for this. This is the best result I could hope for, A strong Liberal minority for now and once Trudeau passes his test for good transparent government then a majority for him in 2 years or so. For many this late Liberal surge is a mixed blessing. First, the Darth Vader of Canada's politics will finally meet his just fate - ignominious defeat including the final absurd act of holding the Ford Nation's hand in a final desperate act to retain his southern Ontario seat base. Trudeau deserves full marks for ending this national disgrace. Unfortunately it is not all great news. Our national love-in with son of PET was shattered days ago as memories of sponsorship corruption reminded all that Liberal rhetoric might be less about 'real change' than assembling the 'pigs at the trough' for another insider run at the treasury. This last scenario could largely be prevented by electing another ABC party to bolster a Liberal minority while also preventing it's excesses via an informal, bill by bill, coalition. It is the only election outcome that protects the public interest - not just the Liberal party's interest. To the extent this morning's polls suggest a Liberal majority is imminent, Canadians will have missed the opportunity to elect gov't acting in the public interest - and not acting in the interest of party insiders. Edited October 18, 2015 by Vancouver King Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 (edited) To the extent this morning's polls suggest a Liberal majority is imminent, Canadians will have missed the opportunity to elect gov't acting in the public interest - and not acting in the interest of party insiders. No poll suggests an imminent Liberal majority. By saying so you scare away Liberal voters and/or take away the will to vote from some of them and you may actually help to re-elect Stephen Harper and another year or years of repeat nightmare. The best poll suggest liberals at 38% and that is a clear minority and they could be as low as 34% as per poll yesterday and conservatives at 33% and a more efficient conservative vote would re-elect them easy. All the conservatives need is for a few percentage of Liberal voters stay home and a few more percent than polls suggest vote for them and they could form another majority government. The liberals need 40+% to even touch a majority and not a single poll suggest that. In fact based on past polls underestimating conservatives and overestimating Liberals at this moment it is about 20 to 30% chance we may see a return of Harper and there is NO guarantee he will be ousted in a minority situation anytime soon. He could stay on for years with his usual political manipulations and tricks. Liberal voters do not get overconfident. Your vote is essential to end this corrupt scandalist undemocratic fear monger divisive evil conservative party out of our government. DO VOTE ON MONDAY. It is not over until it is over. Edited October 17, 2015 by CITIZEN_2015 Quote
Vancouver King Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 They need 40+% to even touch a majority and not a single poll suggest that. In fact based on past polls underestimating conservatives and overestimating Liberals at this moment it is about 20 to 30% chance we may see a return of Harper and there is NO guarantee he will be ousted in a minority situation anytime soon. He could stay on for years with his usual political manipulations and tricks. Would a near front running Tory gov't debase itself by cozying up to Ford Nation wing nuts? Of course not - desperate parties don't continue or form gov'ts - and Harper's now defeated regime is no exception. Quote When the people have no tyrant, their public opinion becomes one. ...... Lord Lytton
Canada_First Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 We must recognize that this New Liberal party under Trudeau is the same as the old party with Chretien and Martin. The Gagneir affair is just another reminder that we cannot go back to another Liberal government. We had the Chretien and Martin Liberals Adscam and now we have Trudeau and his Lobbyist scandal and he isn't even PM yet. It's scary to think of another Adscam type scandal or worse coming back to Canada and what's worse is that we won't know how much a scandal will cost us until they've already broken the rules. We simply cannot afford another decade or two of Liberal rule. Quote
CITIZEN_2015 Posted October 17, 2015 Report Posted October 17, 2015 Would a near front running Tory gov't debase itself by cozying up to Ford Nation wing nuts? Of course not - desperate parties don't continue or form gov'ts - and Harper's now defeated regime is no exception. This is true if the polls are right and all those with intention to vote for liberals or NDP actually show up and vote. It is a lot easier to pick up a phone at home than going to a voting station (especially for those without cars or students) and vote. Also some voters may say well liberals are going to be elected anyway so I stay home and watch the result lets others vote (overconfidence is dangerous game to play) and some may say Liberals will form a majority and I want Justin to pass the test first and not vote. There has been a few recent elections in both Canada (provincial levels) and abroad (UK) where polls were completely wrong for all above reasons. Quote
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