The end of the empire of Japan

[Post To The Left]

fire creates chimney effect that spreads contaminated material high into the atmosphere from where the wind moves it, no explosion is needed...and that is exactly what happened in Chernobyl.

You are mistaken I just explained what happened in Chernobyl which happened because of an out of control nuclear reaction. Soviet reactors didn't contain their cores in steel containment units. At Chernobyl the nuclear rods because of the explosion were exposed in Chernobyl allowing fire and a chimney affect to carry nuclear material fallout throughout Europe.

In Japan a Chernobyl like event can't happen because the core is contained in a steel containment unit. The hydro explosions that hit the reactors didn't crack the steel containment unit. True something is burning right now but the radiation readings once the nuclear power plant workers were allowed back to contain the fire have dropped back down indicating that indicate that the core isn't burning.

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[Post To The Left]

different causes the results end up the same...meltdown, fire, contamination...

I accept your admission that you were wrong and am glad I can clear up your misunderstanding about the nuclear event.

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[wyly]

and then there is the problem of spent fuel rods that are not in any hardened containment facility other than water, if exposed/meltdown they could create a problem far worse than chernobyl....

[wyly]

I accept your admission that you were wrong and am glad I can clear up your misunderstanding about the nuclear event.

I haven't been wrong yet you are out of your depth here...you've been talking out of your arse...

[Post To The Left]

and about that death toll that you insisted would stay around a thousand, it's now 3,771 with nearly 8,000 still missing

I'm a little disturbed that you're happy about so many people dying. I'm personally sad that my estimate was wrong but with events like one below lets hope that it doesn't crack 4000!

9700 missing and presumed dead people have been located at their designated meeting place.

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[Post To The Left]

and then there is the problem of spent fuel rods that are not in any hardened containment facility other than water, if exposed/meltdown they could create a problem far worse than chernobyl....

OK one more time. Chernobyl was caused by an out of control nuclear reaction creating HUGE amounts of radiation. Without a containment shield the explosion allowed an exposure of the nuclear material which allowed said radiated material (Which had high amounts of radiation because of the out of control fission reaction) to spread over Europe due to a big fire.

This can't happen in Japan because the nuclear reaction was shut down and the nuclear material has been enclosed in the containment shield. At the very worst this could be a Three Mile Island and that accident had "estimates of radiological exposure for the 2 million people in the area amounted to about one-sixth of what they might have received from a chest X-ray."

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[wyly]

let's see here...you insisted tsunami casualties would remain around a thousand -WRONG

you claimed fission is relevant ot his situation...wrong again

you claimed a dirty bomb needs a explosion...very wrong, again...but later you claim knowledge to the chimney effect ...

[wyly]

I'm a little disturbed that you're happy about so many people dying. I'm personally sad that my estimate was wrong but with events like one below lets hope that it doesn't crack 4000!

9700 missing and presumed dead people have been located at their designated meeting place.

I'm a little disturbed by you trying to hide behind dead people by shifting your bullshit onto me...you came in here claiming to be the arrogant all knowing expert on everything calling me a liar, I'm enjoying exposing your BS...

Edited March 16, 2011 by wyly

[wyly]

At the very worst this could be a Three Mile Island

while nearly every nuclear expert in the world claims this already past TMI and heading toward Chernobyl, but you know better ...

[Post To The Left]

You claim Chernobyl's high radiation caused by an out of control reaction is the same, or worse, in Japan - WRONG

You claim Japan's reactor core is exposed like Chernobyl's - WRONG

You claim there are big fires at the nuclear plants capable of spreading nuclear material - WRONG

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[WIP]

The expected repatriation of billions in yen to shore up the domestic insurance losses will happen, same as with the Kobe earthquake event. But Japan's already strained debt-to-GDP ratio will grow larger as massive injections by government are made. This may put downward pressure on the US dollar, but at a significant cost to Japan's exports. The US has been there...done that, and the late 90's was quite a ride....up!

One difference though, is that the U.S. was in a much better financial situation 15 years ago than they are today. Clinton turned in a couple of balanced budgets around that time, the Cold War was over, and there were no major military ventures equivalent to the costs of Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, with the U.S. national debt growing, and no apparent serious attempts to deal with the major expenditures, a major sale of U.S. debt by Japan would raise the cost of borrowing, and then it's worth asking whether a big sale by Japan could prompt China and other major investors to start reducing their holdings.

[WIP]

The Japanese are some of the most responsible in world when it comes to insurance. I'm sure the rates of people covered in the affected region is something like 99%. While Japanese domestic companies will take a hit most of the Japanese insurance companies are covered by reinsurance companies (Companies who insure the insurers) that are mainly Swiss, and German. I'm far from an expert at finical stuff but these companies have already taken a hit with the US mortgage crisis and economic recession. I hope they provide the money they promised and it doesn't turn into another Fannie Fae type situation.

I'm not a financial expert, but it seems to me that governments end up paying the majority of the costs of major disasters. Until there is some idea of the scope of this nuclear crisis, there is no way to tally up the costs yet.

[WIP]

OK one more time. Chernobyl was caused by an out of control nuclear reaction creating HUGE amounts of radiation. Without a containment shield the explosion allowed an exposure of the nuclear material which allowed said radiated material (Which had high amounts of radiation because of the out of control) to spread over Europe due to a big fire.

This can't happen in Japan because the nuclear reaction was shut down and the nuclear material has been enclosed in the containment shield. At the very worst this could be a Three Mile Island and that accident had "estimates of radiological exposure for the 2 million people in the area amounted to about one-sixth of what they might have received from a chest X-ray."

Well, evidence so far seems to indicate that Japanese Government officials have minimized the dangers since problems started on Friday, so how do we take their word now that the problem is manageable? Latest news is not encouraging. Latest report carried on CTVNews:

Japan ordered emergency workers to withdraw from its stricken nuclear plant Wednesday amid a surge in radiation, temporarily suspending efforts to cool the overheating reactors.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said the workers, who have been dousing the reactors with seawater in a frantic effort to stabilize their temperatures, had no choice but to pull back from the most dangerous areas.

"The workers cannot carry out even minimal work at the plant now," Edano said, as smoke billowed above the crippled Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear complex. "Because of the radiation risk we are on standby."

So, what are they saying here? Throw in the towel! How bad will it get if they can't do anything to cool the reactors?

[Post To The Left]

So, what are they saying here? Throw in the towel! How bad will it get if they can't do anything to cool the reactors?

Maybe because of the time difference but in Japan it was reported as the radiation spiked the nuclear plant workers were pulled back then the radiation went back down and the nuclear workers went back to work cooling down the reactors.

Just for perspective here is what the British embassy is telling their citizens in Japan:

... Sir. John Beddington, Chief Scientific Adviser to the UK Government, and he was joined by a number of qualified nuclear experts based in the UK. Their assessment of the current situation in Japan is as follows:

* In case of a ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ (defined as total meltdown of one reactor with subsequent radioactive explosion) an exclusion zone of 30 miles (50km) would be the maximum required to avoid affecting peoples’ health. Even in a worse situation (loss of two or more reactors) it is unlikely that the damage would be significantly more than that caused by the loss of a single reactor.

* The current 20km exclusion zone is appropriate for the levels of radiation/risk currently experienced, and if the pouring of sea water can be maintained to cool the reactors, the likelihood of a major incident should be avoided.

*If the pouring of water can be maintained the situation should be much improved after ten days, as the reactors’ cores cool down.

* This is a very different situation from Chernobyl, where the reactor went into meltdown and the encasement, which exploded, was left to burn for weeks without any control.

The Canadian embassy is saying essentially the same thing and a pointed: fuck off we're not paying for any evacuation because there isn't any risk.

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[Post To The Left]

NHK (Japan's CBC) is listing the latest radiation numbers:

Tokyo: 0.16 microsieverts

Fukushima: 21.4 microsieverts

So if 1mSv=1000μSv then the radiation level was .0214 mSv. A full body CT scan is 10mSv so a full body CT scan is 500 times more powerful than the latest radiation levels at Fukushima ... if I got my Math right.

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[DogOnPorch]

[GostHacked]

Well, all 4 towers have suffered major damage. Cooling systems have been compromised.I did not want to be right, but I guess I was. Anyone still want to downplay the severity of this situation?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12755739

On Wednesday, Japanese Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told a news briefing that workers at the Fukushima Daiichi plant had been withdrawn following the sudden rise in radiation levels.

Cabinet Secretary Edano said radiation levels were fluctuating

It is believed that about 50 employees had been working at the plant - 220km (140 miles) north of Tokyo - to try to cool its four reactors and avert a meltdown.

Mr Edano also said that the radiation levels were now falling from 1,000 millisieverts on Wednesday morning to 600-800.

Milli is bigger than micro. so Post to The Left is wrong again.

But white smoke was later seen rising from reactor three. Officials are investigating the cause of both incidents and the damage done, with Mr Edano saying the smoke was probably steam from the evaporation of water, which caused the higher radiation.

"A part of the containment vessel is broken and it seems like the vapour is coming out from there. So... [it] appears to be that vapour is coming out from the broken part.

And for the killer part.

The reactor had been shut down before the quake for maintenance, but its spent fuel rods are still stored on the site

I am not sure if other nuclear plants around the world store their spent rods on site.

[Post To The Left]

Mr Edano also said that the radiation levels were now falling from 1,000 millisieverts on Wednesday morning to 600-800.

And it kept dropping to normal levels, which is why the nuclear crew went back to work. You're quoting a dated webpage that doesn't say when they got the data, I'm telling you what the live Japanese TV says. Sure you can claim that the Japanese TV is trying to cover it all up but you're starting to sound like those loons, a couple pages back, who claimed that the American military did this to sabotage Japanese production.

I am not sure if other nuclear plants around the world store their spent rods on site.

So they were washed away? What?

Edited March 16, 2011 by Post To The Left

[g_bambino]

Apparently you know it's bad when...

You don't have to know how rapidly radiation levels are rising in Japan to realize just how serious the crisis is becoming.

Japanese Emperor Akihito delivered an unprecedented televised address to his disaster-stricken nation Wednesday... It is a sign of extraordinary danger.

Emperor's appearance signals magnitude of Japan disaster

[bush_cheney2004]

Apparently you know it's bad when...

Big deal.....President Jimmy Carter did the same thing. Pennsylvania survived anyway.

How many dead bodies from earthquake/tsunami vs. damaged reactors?

Edited March 16, 2011 by bush_cheney2004

[GostHacked]

And it kept dropping to normal levels, which is why the nuclear crew went back to work. You're quoting a dated webpage that doesn't say when they got the data, I'm telling you what the live Japanese TV says. Sure you can claim that the Japanese TV is trying to cover it all up but you're starting to sound like those loons, a couple pages back, who claimed that the American military did this to sabotage Japanese production.

I may sound like a loon, and that's fine. But I never claimed it was the US military who sabotaged the facility.

So they were washed away? What?

From what I understand, is that the spent fuel rods were stored on site ... not just on site, but on TOP of the reactors in cooling pools. So the cores could still be intact ... however ... spend fuel rods I suspect have been blown all over the grounds of the facility.

And the media has been slow to report and give all the details about the nuclear facility. Don't trust your main stream media there. They are not telling you everything.

http://www.nirs.org/reactorwatch/accidents/6-1_powerpoint.pdf

Page 5 - states that increased storage capacity was done by re-stacking/packing the spent fuel rods.

Page 6 - states that the new storage facility was started in 2010, and would have been complete in 2012.

That tells me that all spent fuel rods were stored on site, and (from what I can surmise) is that they were on TOP of the reactors, in cooling pools.....

If I were you, I'd be looking to gtfo of there.

[eyeball]

These diagrams and drawing of reactors I see in the media remind me how the case was made to invade Iraq. Remember the drawings of mobile chemical and biological weapons labs, super-guns and underground airports and bunkers filled with fighter jets and Republican guards? No real close up images just cartoon drawings.

Given the complete meltdown of credibility surrounding the reportage of what's actually happening I think it should be mandatory cameras be placed around reactors so everyone can see what's happening.

Is it out of control or under control, are technicians in white hard-hats and lab-coats walking around serenely with their clipboards or running back and forth in a panic-stricken bucket-brigade? A camera or two or a whole bank of monitors might go a long way to clear things up.

It should be patently obvious to everyone what the biggest challenges and threats to our well-being is. From financial meltdowns to nuclear meltdowns and everything in between, the lack of transparency surrounds the heart of each and every crisis.

Edited March 16, 2011 by eyeball

[bush_cheney2004]

...Given the complete meltdown of credibility surrounding the reportage of what's actually happening I think it should be mandatory cameras be placed around reactors so everyone can see what's happening.

Yes...to make sure those telling us lies are found out, these cameras should be earthquake/tsunami proof, with more redundant backups than even the reactors, so great be our righteous need for truth and justice concerning nuclear power plants.

[no1ninja]

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/3867/reactorc.jpg

The above is something I copied from another forum.

Here is an interesting FAQ on the situation.

http://www.nei.org/filefolder/Japanese_Nuclear_Situation_FAQs.pdf

Edited March 16, 2011 by no1ninja

[wyly]

You claim Chernobyl's high radiation caused by an out of control reaction is the same, or worse, in Japan - WRONG

WRONG

nowhere did I claim the two situations are the same I was quite clear to anyone with basic reading comprehension that regardless of the different squence of events leading up to a nuclear mishap with an uncontroled release of radiation the end result is the same...

You claim Japan's reactor core is exposed like Chernobyl's - WRONG

no where did I make that claim...

You claim there are big fires at the nuclear plants capable of spreading nuclear material -

"Yesterday the waste pond at reactor 4 was causing much of the concern. At one point it had heated up to 83 °C, and experienced two fires. The fear is that water levels in the pond will fall so far that the spent fuel rods will become exposed, releasing a significant amount of radioactive material."

once again you're wrong on every point you make...