North Korea Attacks

[Jack Weber]

But Jack, that does not happen in civilized societies now does it?

Reichstag Fire...Gulf of Tonkin incident....

Naaaawwwww....False flags never happen...Gov't's never rig a situation to go to war....

Edited November 24, 2010 by Jack Weber

[Jack Weber]

Ok, well, we'll see what happens to the 25,000 American troops on the DMZ when those bombs start falling.

All you'll get from Miss Saskatchewan is more empty headed flag waving...

Edited November 24, 2010 by Jack Weber

[Rue]

All you'll get from Miss Saskatchewan is more empty headed flag waving...

Well I am glad its Miss Saskatchewan getting it. Usually Israel is blamed for all false flag operations. I am waiting for the usual Zionists are to blame for it theory.

With due respect the Americans have been restraining themselves and doing anything but flag waving.

The entire point of the latest theatrics is because the U.S. has stayed low and refused to talk with North Korea and said, any talks will be with South Korea and China and Japan present.

The U.S. has been a model of restraint.

Had the U.S. wanted an excuse to bomb or attack North Korea it could have done so years ago.

[ToadBrother]

I am sure the fat boy will catch on after his beloved fearless father dies if he's not shot and replaced by some lunatic ambitious colonel in the Korean army.

I think the relationship between the Kims and the Generals is much more symbiotic than that. They need each other. So much has been invested by the North Korean state in the Kim dynasty over the last sixty years that I don't think the state could stand if the Generals tried to rule directly. They need the Kim dynasty as the main prop of power, and thus the Kim dynasty in turn has substantial power over the Generals. No doubt there are unseen currents in the situation, and transfers of power in such regimes is always a dicey affair, and it's possible that Kim Jong-un was the consensus choice, but I doubt there's ever been any consideration of any candidate that wasn't from the Kim family.

[GostHacked]

Whether North Korea likes it or not, South Korea may conduct training exercises regardless. Any attempt to link training exercises with an unprovoked attack should be dismissed.

So why does shit seem to only go down when exercises are going on?

[GostHacked]

Had the U.S. wanted an excuse to bomb or attack North Korea it could have done so years ago.

There would be no gain in attacking and taking over NK.

[Jack Weber]

Well I am glad its Miss Saskatchewan getting it. Usually Israel is blamed for all false flag operations. I am waiting for the usual Zionists are to blame for it theory.

With due respect the Americans have been restraining themselves and doing anything but flag waving.

The entire point of the latest theatrics is because the U.S. has stayed low and refused to talk with North Korea and said, any talks will be with South Korea and China and Japan present.

The U.S. has been a model of restraint.

Had the U.S. wanted an excuse to bomb or attack North Korea it could have done so years ago.

I agree...

After yesterday,I suspect there was a very short and probably terse missive from Washington to the South Korean military to cool it!!

[nicky10013]

So why does shit seem to only go down when exercises are going on?

It doesn't. There were no exercises when they tested nuclear weapons. There were no exercises when they tested their last missile.

They do this kind of stuff when they think they can get away with it to ratchet up tensions in order to squeeze concessions.

[nicky10013]

I agree...

After yesterday,I suspect there was a very short and probably terse missive from Washington to the South Korean military to cool it!!

I doubt it. South Korea knows the score even better than the US does. After all, any of it's activity directly impacts South Korea. Any provacative retaliation and the resulting war would most likely see Seoul completely destroyed. After every attack, the South talks tough, but that's about it, becasue really, that's all it can do.

[Jack Weber]

I doubt it. South Korea knows the score even better than the US does. After all, any of it's activity directly impacts South Korea. Any provacative retaliation and the resulting war would most likely see Seoul completely destroyed. After every attack, the South talks tough, but that's about it, becasue really, that's all it can do.

Yeah,but you don't think that if the South retaliated that the US would be somehow kept in the loop???

I mean there are US soldiers along the DMZ...They would be in harms way...

I'm thinking that Washington ultimately calls the shots when it comes to military action against the North and I also think this was'nt enough for them to really get involved...

[M.Dancer]

Yeah,but you don't think that if the South retaliated that the US would be somehow kept in the loop???

The south did retaliate...and not the first time. There has been artllery duels, shots exchanged. What you mean to ask is, would the south escalate the tensions by attacking north korean positions elsewhere.

INCHEON, South Korea — North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire Tuesday after the North shelled an island near their disputed sea border, killing at least two South Korean marines, setting dozens of buildings ablaze and sending civilians fleeing for shelter

.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/23/korea-attack-yeonpyeong-island_n_787294.html#s189509

[nicky10013]

Yeah,but you don't think that if the South retaliated that the US would be somehow kept in the loop???

I mean there are US soldiers along the DMZ...They would be in harms way...

I'm thinking that Washington ultimately calls the shots when it comes to military action against the North and I also think this was'nt enough for them to really get involved...

I think everyone would like to think they call the shots. In the end, that's not the case. Korea is free to do what they want. Allies don't consult each other all the time. It was a complete surprise to Hitler when Japan attacked the US...a glaring oversight. Most recently, in an attempt to get peace talks off the ground, the US asked Israel to halt settlements. Of course, they didn't listen. In the end, if the South is so upset by what the North does, there could be a heavier response. However, since the stakes are so high, I don't really believe ANYONE wants a wider war. Seoul would be destroyed, the US would be drawn in after trying to get out of Afghanistan and Iraq, and in the end, the likely fate of the Kim family is along the lines of what Hussein went through. Lots of tough talk on all sides, not much action and for a lot of good reasons.

[bush_cheney2004]

Never let a good international crisis go to waste...plans to attack DPRK nuclear facilities just moved one step forward on the game board.

[ToadBrother]

Never let a good international crisis go to waste...plans to attack DPRK nuclear facilities just moved one step forward on the game board.

I doubt it. No one is particularly interested in pissing off China, and Beijing definitely views NK as its backyard.

[bush_cheney2004]

I doubt it. No one is particularly interested in pissing off China, and Beijing definitely views NK as its backyard.

So is Afghanistan.

[xul]

ROK will not tolerate much more of DPRK's tantrums to get free heating oil. The last election made this clear.

I don't think so. Yesterday I visited a Chinese military fan's forum to see how would these kids response to the event---lots of rubbish just as I expected. But I read two kids's dialogue very funny:

kid1: ....I think this time NK has pushed it too far. SK may have to response...SK's GDP is far greater than NK's so SK may have advantage if the war breaks out.

kid2: yes, SK's GDP is greater....except SK is a small place so if the war broke out, its GDP would drop into zero just as the same as NK's....

What kind of response would President Lee choose? Air strike NK's missile bases? Nobody would doubt that ROKAF could accomplish the mission even without US's assistance(if US had kindly helped SK to set up its own C3I independent from US's when SK regained its "control" of its plane and tank things in 1994 ) and without a single plane lost. But Lee Myung-bak has to consider the aftermath if Kim escalates the conflict, especially Lee is a "CEO" politician, he is supposed to care SK's GDP more than SK's face.

In my opion, a CEO politician is not a good choice as the leadership to deal with such kind of situation, because they are trained to battle the rivals just as sane as them---to battle their rival CEOs. But in the international political battle field, they will find some of their rivals are not as sane as them, so all their CEO-craft will become useless.

Edited November 25, 2010 by xul

[Jack Weber]

Regardless of Miss Saskatchewan's chest thumping...

If China wanted to really pick a fight with the US,they would simply attack Taiwan...The better bet is to continually own US debt until by the time that debt is paid off,the US is no longer the engine pulling the global train...

I suspect very little will come out of this...The only thing that might be cause for concern is if North Korean lobs a missile into Tokyo...Then all bets are off....

Edited November 25, 2010 by Jack Weber

[bush_cheney2004]

I don't think so. Yesterday I visited a Chinese military fan's forum to see how would these kids response to the event---lots of rubbish just as I expected. But I read two kids's dialogue very funny:

China also has GDP to worry about....if a confrontation with DPRK is inevitable, ROK/US/Japan will choose an opportune time and objectives. China can save face by "protesting strongly" while secretly sanctioning a DPRK transition long overdue.

[bush_cheney2004]

Regardless of Miss Saskatchewan's chest thumping...

....or Weber wanking.

[nicky10013]

China also has GDP to worry about....if a confrontation with DPRK is inevitable, ROK/US/Japan will choose an opportune time and objectives. China can save face by "protesting strongly" while secretly sanctioning a DPRK transition long overdue.

It's not inevitable, though.

[bush_cheney2004]

It's not inevitable, though.

That's what they said about Iraq.

[nicky10013]

That's what they said about Iraq.

Iraq didn't have the power to destroy a staunch Allie's capital city. Nor, despite desperate attempts to make people believe otherwise, did Iraq have nuclear weapons.

[Wilber]

I doubt it. No one is particularly interested in pissing off China, and Beijing definitely views NK as its backyard.

Then they should keep their children under control.

[xul]

China also has GDP to worry about....if a confrontation with DPRK is inevitable, ROK/US/Japan will choose an opportune time and objectives. China can save face by "protesting strongly" while secretly sanctioning a DPRK transition long overdue.

I guess what bjre's dad's kind has leant from Bush's wars is US will kick their ass regardless how nice they means to US if US has an opportune time.....

Anyway, Kim is not only CPC boss's pet but Obama's as well. I guess Obama's worsest nightmare isn't Kim's "baby nuclear bombs" but one day Karea, Japan and China go to far to reach a free trade agreement and form a mechanism like the EU which America is not inside. Kim's action has proved Japanese and South Kerean that how much they need US and how much China is unreliable.

I guess Kim knows his rule in this political game. As long as he plays his rule well without getting across the edge of the stage, he will be safe and never fallen.

[Slim]

I really doubt there's going to be anything more that comes of this (other than maybe China quietly leaning on NK to smarten up) because an all-out war would be, well, silly.

What would the North have to gain if it invaded? Their air force is woefully inadequate against the South's modern fleet. So there would be no air cover for their infantry/ground forces. And we all know what happens when your troops on the ground are easy pickins for a powerful air force.

They could concievably try using biological/chemical weapons on the South; but that would hardly collapse their defense. Modern armies are equipped to protect themselves against such systems.

And, worse case scenario, NK has weaponized nuclear weapons (artillery or SCUD delivered, pretty small warheads) and fires them over. It would cause some serious damage (especially civilian) but they can't have enough to disable all US and SK forces in the region. Plus the retaliation would be swift and overpowering from the US. NK's leadership may be a little on the nutbar side, but I doubt they are into wholesale suicide.

So basically... yeah, likely not much will happen.