Will proroguing Parliament hurt the Tories' political success?

[ToadBrother]

If any of this carries momentum then what you have is both the NDP and liberals up and the Block in the same ball park. A budget deal will need to be cut, and you arn't going to see a stimulus package like last time - also the opposition wasn't all that happy with the delivery of the program either.

Well, the stimulus program was the program Parliament built. We always knew it was going to be nothing more than a pot hole filling fund, and not a meaningful infrastructure program. By that, I mean something that built highways and bridges, railways and shipyards, dams and electrical generation facilities and all those daring things that went on in the old days.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

There is a zero chance of Harper surviving a confidence motion. All the opposition parties are going to jump him, forget what the contents of any budget are because it doesn't matter. Harper is just handing out the ammo at the moment. These folks already have the gun, the prorogue fills that roll.

Harper should consider himself lucky that he will last until then......

[Jerry J. Fortin]

It also means the ball is back in Iggy's court, and thus far he hasn't exactly been a shining star. But if he sticks to his guns, and he and his caucus show up on the Hill on January 25th, and they can give off the airs of a government in waiting, I suspect it may be a game changer.

I agree. If he can somehow get the NDP and the Bloc to be seen with him making agreements or better yet attending some function together, as in showing a united front, then Harper is screwed.

[nicky10013]

I agree. If he can somehow get the NDP and the Bloc to be seen with him making agreements or better yet attending some function together, as in showing a united front, then Harper is screwed.

The only way to seal a Harper majority is for all of them to work together. Coalition redux would kill the opposition.

For the last time, it just isn't going to happen. Why would Ignatieff try to form a coalition government when he's in striking distance of winning government. A minority, albeit, but government nonetheless.

[capricorn]

There is a zero chance of Harper surviving a confidence motion.

I hope so. This minority government is reported as the longest in our Parliamentary history. I think an election this spring would be timely.

All the opposition parties are going to jump him, forget what the contents of any budget are because it doesn't matter.

I disagree that the budget's content is irrelevant. The prorogation has received such media coverage, Canadians will pay closer attention to the budget than they ordinarily would, if only to see what the fuss was all about. Also, concerns about the economy will make them want to know how their pocketbook will be affected. As for the opposition, I wonder if they would defeat the government if they believe Harper would win another minority.

Bottom line is I want a spring election and will channel Ignatieff every chance I get to give me my wish. Telepathically, I will remind him that Paul Martin was leading in the polls leading up to the election which he lost. That should do it.

[nicky10013]

There is a zero chance of Harper surviving a confidence motion. All the opposition parties are going to jump him, forget what the contents of any budget are because it doesn't matter. Harper is just handing out the ammo at the moment. These folks already have the gun, the prorogue fills that roll.

Harper should consider himself lucky that he will last until then......

From today's perspective there's a 0 chance. On March 3rd there may be a 100% chance he survives. Depends on a lot of things between now and then.

As for the polls, to me it suggests that the 10% the Conservatives have lost have moved into the undecided camp. What's the likelyhood they'll break back Conservative? Now, this may not make any sense to anyone else, but to me it says the Conservatives have lost my vote. I don't see the CPC recovering much of those numbers. Who else will pick up the slack? Some of the undecided may slip Liberal, some may slip NDP though I highly doubt that it would make too much of a difference. Perhaps a few independent candidates out west tied to wild rose gets in. Nobody really knows right now. Seems to me though, that right now pretty much everyone but the hardcore CPC partisans are dying for an alternative. Depends on who gives the best one.

Anything can happen. It's actually an exciting time in Canadian politics.

Edited January 14, 2010 by nicky10013

[capricorn]

Coalition redux would kill the opposition.

I agree nicky. Ignatieff and the Liberals have to fly solo.

[William Ashley]

Well, the stimulus program was the program Parliament built. We always knew it was going to be nothing more than a pot hole filling fund, and not a meaningful infrastructure program. By that, I mean something that built highways and bridges, railways and shipyards, dams and electrical generation facilities and all those daring things that went on in the old days.

Part of the issue is that it was offered to municipalities, and only if they had a portion of the funds needed to complete the project - in most cases 4x the funding was paid for by non federal sources. You can't get "big results" from the little people. I think it was designed to get the maximum coverage in local ridings rather than maximum economic effect for the money, and where are the debt laden municipalities getting their funds from? Raising local taxes? It was about economic factors it was about placating municipal heads. That is in part why the stimulus program was a 50+ billion deficit dud. And while all parties called for it, it was the cons who administered it, with no results. You give me 56 billion dollars and you will see something out of the thing. You give it to harper and you see playgrounds. Fact is harper being the fascist he is didn't want to generate the economy with the crown -like wind farms, he didn't want to step on the toes of private corps who run those feilds with inflated prices, that is why nothing came of it.

Edited January 14, 2010 by William Ashley

[Moonbox]

This is something I didn't know/remember:

Chretien prorogued parliament something like 4 times himself. Why is the government allowed to do this? Clearly there's a precedent and one party isn't better than the other, but it's still sand in the eyes for most Canadians.

[nicky10013]

This is something I didn't know/remember:

Chretien prorogued parliament something like 4 times himself. Why is the government allowed to do this? Clearly there's a precedent and one party isn't better than the other, but it's still sand in the eyes for most Canadians.

It's a simple act of parliament. After the government has completed it's agenda set out in the throne speech, a prorogual is routine. The government comes back with a new throne speech, budget and agenda. Under normal circumstances it's quite fine. No one has used it to kill 30 of their own bills, though.

[Alta4ever]

It's a simple act of parliament. After the government has completed it's agenda set out in the throne speech, a prorogual is routine. The government comes back with a new throne speech, budget and agenda. Under normal circumstances it's quite fine. No one has used it to kill 30 of their own bills, though.

So the almighty Nicky has decided that the governments agenda wasn't done, or that they couldn't end this agenda to institute a different one.

Edited January 14, 2010 by Alta4ever

[nicky10013]

So the almighty Nicky has decided that the governments agenda wasn't done, or that they couldn't end this agenda to institute a different one.

Well, when you have 30 pieces of your own legislation still on the table, something doesn't look right. You can make the argument, but no one is buying. Only you.

Even Tom Flanagan, Harper's old cheif of staff called this move childish. Not surprisingly, only the childish support it.

[William Ashley]

So the almighty Nicky has decided that the governments agenda wasn't done, or that they couldn't end this agenda to institute a different one.

Looks like a lot of lost votes if these are no longer part of the Conservative agenda

1) C-6 – An Act respecting the safety of consumer products Passed 3rd reading in the House of Commons

2) C-8 – An Act respecting family homes situated on First Nation reserves and matrimonial interests or rights in or to structures and lands situated on those reserves Debated at 2nd reading

3) C-13 – An Act to amend the Canada Grain Act, chapter 22 of the Statutes of Canada, 1998 and chapter 25 of the Statutes of Canada, 2004 Debated at 2nd reading

4) C-15 – An Act to amend the Controlled Drugs and Substances Act and to make related and consequential amendments to other Acts Passed 3rd reading

5) C-19 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code (investigative hearing and recognizance with conditions) Debated at 2nd reading

6) C-20 – An Act respecting civil liability and compensation for damage in case of a nuclear incident Reported back from Committee with amendments

7) C-23 – An Act to implement the Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the Republic of Colombia, the Agreement on the Environment between Canada and the Republic of Colombia and the Agreement on Labour Cooperation between Canada and the Republic of Colombia Debated at 2nd reading

8) C-26 — An Act to amend the Criminal Code (auto theft and trafficking in property obtained by crime) Passed 3rd reading

9) C-27 — An Act to promote the efficiency and adaptability of the Canadian economy by regulating certain activities that discourage reliance on electronic means of carrying out commercial activities, and to amend the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission Act, the Competition Act, the Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act and the Telecommunications Act Passed 3rd reading

10) C-30 – An Act to amend the Parliament of Canada Act and to make consequential amendments to other Acts Debated at 2nd reading

11) C-31 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Corruption of Foreign Public Officials Act and the Identification of Criminals Act and to make a consequential amendment to another Act Referred to Legislative Committee

12) C-34 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code and other Acts Reported back from Committee with amendments

13) C-35 – An Act to deter terrorism, and to amend the State Immunity Act Debated at 2nd reading

14) C-36 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code Passed 3rd reading

15) C-37 – An Act to amend the National Capital Act and other Acts Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

16) C-40 – An Act to amend the Canada Elections Act 1st reading

17) C-42 — An Act to amend the Criminal Code Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

18) C-43 — An Act to amend the Corrections and Conditional Release Act and the Criminal Code Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

19) C-44 — An Act to amend the Canada Post Corporation Act Debated at 2nd reading

20) C-45 — An Act to amend the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act 1st reading

21) C-46 — An Act to amend the Criminal Code, the Competition Act and the Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Act Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

22) C-47 — An Act regulating telecommunications facilities to support investigations Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

23) C-52 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code (sentencing for fraud) Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

24) C-53 – An Act to amend the Corrections and Conditional Release Act (accelerated parole review) and to make consequential amendments to other Acts 1st reading

25) C-54 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code and to make consequential amendments to the National Defence Act 1st reading

26) C-55 – An Act to amend the Criminal Code 1st reading

27) C-57 – An Act to implement the Free Trade Agreement between Canada and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, the Agreement on the Environment between Canada and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan and the Agreement on Labour Cooperation between Canada and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Debated at 2nd reading

28) C-58 – An Act respecting the mandatory reporting of Internet child pornography by persons who provide an Internet service Read 2nd time; referred to Committee

29) C-59 – An Act to amend the International Transfer of Offenders Act 1st reading

30) C-60 – An Act to implement the Framework Agreement on Integrated Cross-Border Maritime Law Enforcement Operations between the Government of Canada and the Government of the United States of America 1st reading

31) C-61 – An Act to provide for the resumption and continuation of railway operations 1st reading

32) C-63 – An Act to amend the First Nations Commercial and Industrial Development Act and another Act in consequence thereof 1st reading

[Alta4ever]

Well, when you have 30 pieces of your own legislation still on the table, something doesn't look right. You can make the argument, but no one is buying. Only you.

Even Tom Flanagan, Harper's old cheif of staff called this move childish. Not surprisingly, only the childish support it.

Gee you should this all over this in support.

I wonder what you thought of Chretien calling an early election against Stock with legislation still on the table and two years before the typical majority term was over.

[waldo]

I wonder what you thought of Chretien calling an early election against Stock with legislation still on the table and two years before the typical majority term was over.

ahhh... simpler times - c'mon, who misses Barney the dinosaur? In any case, Harper's 'fixed election law' put an end to that calling an early election thingee... oh, wait...... never mind

by the way, how much Chretien legislation we talkin bout, willis?

[Bryan]

There is a zero chance of Harper surviving a confidence motion.

That's exactly what Conservatives are hoping for.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

That's exactly what Conservatives are hoping for.

I have heard it said that you should be careful what you ask for.

[Wilber]

Gee you should this all over this in support.

I wonder what you thought of Chretien calling an early election against Stock with legislation still on the table and two years before the typical majority term was over.

I think it points to the fact that whenever an election is called before a term is up or Parliament is prorogued, a government is thumbing its nose at the public and saying politics and political advantage is more important than the people's business no matter how they try and dress it up.

[madmax]

Interesting. Harper seems to be a man of extremes. He can be very good for a long time and then make an unexpected blunder that really hurts him.

I sincerely thought he broke the cycle. I even removed a similar analysis from my Signature after 3 months of excellent behaviour and good government. I actually liked how the government was maneuvering between parties and making it work. I did believe that Ignatieff made the last blunder and looked unable to recover. Then this gift out of the blue

Still, time will tell if this issue has any legs with Canadians at large. When I hear people talk about it I hear complaints that MP's are getting a longer vacation. This might get people angry for a short time but it's nothing like an Adscam scandal! As I noted in another thread, while "perogies" have hurt Harper's numbers they haven't helped Ignatieff or Layton at all.

I agree. But I think you have to look at it as a self inflicted wound, not a wound delivered by the Opposition.

We should know better in a few weeks. I still think that the issue can easily be turned back against the Opposition parties. If it's all such a big deal then why don't they force an election over it?

Because then the opposition would make the same mistake as Harper. On top of that Ignatieff has already made that mistake in Sept. The public is pretty clear. They don't want an election, they want government to get back to work.

What would be the slogan?

"Vote for us, we promise to show up for work"?

This isn't about parties, its about government.

[madmax]

At the beginning of the year, all the pundits and media said that proroguing was a non issue.

In the polling thread, the 3rd poll released this week supports a massive drop in support for the Tories.

This poll on MLW also reflects polls released this week.

I think the pundits here were first out of gate

[ToadBrother]

At the beginning of the year, all the pundits and media said that proroguing was a non issue.

In the polling thread, the 3rd poll released this week supports a massive drop in support for the Tories.

This poll on MLW also reflects polls released this week.

I think the pundits here were first out of gate

Yes indeed. I called it. I said a second prorogation would spell serious trouble. Harper is beginning to look a lot less like the master strategist or more like an out-of-control risk taker. He nearly saw his government topple in 2008. In 2009 a second prorogation seems to be spelling the end of any notions of a majority government in the near future, and yet giving the Liberals numbers tantalizingly close enough that even if they don't want to see an election themselves, they can basically start calling the shots. The alternatives for the Tories now narrow down to making kissy-kissy with the Liberals, or chumming up to the Bloc and the NDP.

One thing is for sure, the budget isn't going to be any wonder if deficit busting, that's fer sure.

[August1991]

In the polling thread, the 3rd poll released this week supports a massive drop in support for the Tories.

A "massive" drop?

The Tories have been bouncing around the mid-thirties for some time.

----

In any event, I suspect Harper decided to prorogue for a number of reasons - and the benefits will show up in the longer run. In particular, I think the key benefit will show up in establishing that Harper is a tough political animal.

For the past week or so, the MSM has been talking constantly about progogation. The anti-Harperites have had a field day talking about the "dictator". Is it any wonder that this has had an effect in the polls?

I'm waiting for someone to blame Harper for the earthquake in Haiti since it has pushed progation out of the headlines.

[ToadBrother]

A "massive" drop?

The Tories have been bouncing around the mid-thirties for some time.

----

They don't appear to be in Kansas any more.

In any event, I suspect Harper decided to prorogue for a number of reasons - and the benefits will show up in the longer run. In particular, I think the key benefit will show up in establishing that Harper is a tough political animal.

It certainly demonstrates his contempt for Parliament.

For the past week or so, the MSM has been talking constantly about progogation. The anti-Harperites have had a field day talking about the "dictator". Is it any wonder that this has had an effect in the polls?

Maybe people want a Parliament, not just a government centered on the PMO and a few senior ministers. I mean, that is how the system is supposed to work.

I'll ask you plainly. Who is supreme in our land, Parliament or the Prime Minister?

I'm waiting for someone to blame Harper for the earthquake in Haiti since it has pushed progation out of the headlines.

No worries. I won't blame Harper for it. But I'm not going to give him undeserved credit for Canadian operations down there either. Politicians just love to be seen being saviors (look at how Obama's supporters are trying to turn his image around with this).

Edited January 15, 2010 by ToadBrother

[August1991]

I'll ask you plainly. Who is supreme in our land, Parliament or the Prime Minister?

Gimme a break. Canadian democracy is surely stronger than a rogue PM.

Trudeau had a bigger ego than Harper, and Duplessis was far more of an autocrat than what the anti-Harperites claim of Harper.

Stephen Harper strikes me as a standard issue, WASP, English-Canadian politician. If he has a fault, it's not his egocentrism. Harper's fault is his boring, lack of originality. He's the son of an accountant. He plods.

[Smallc]

Trudeau had a bigger ego than Harper

Did you use your ego measuring tape to determine that?