Will proroguing Parliament hurt the Tories' political success?

[madmax]

A "massive" drop?

The Tories have been bouncing around the mid-thirties for some time.

I don't believe there is a better way to describe blowing a 15 point lead that had a 177 seat projection and turn it into a 1.6% lead and a loss of 33 seats.

Anyone in Politics would call this a MASSIVE DROP.

I don't believe I was any less descriptive when Ignatieff turned polling numbers of 34% into 23%.

In any event, I suspect Harper decided to prorogue for a number of reasons - and the benefits will show up in the longer run. In particular, I think the key benefit will show up in establishing that Harper is a tough political animal.

A # of Reasons? Of course and I have read many. Sometimes 3 in one day. Harper is still looking for a reason that the public won't think is torokaka.

Perhaps you can provide a list of reasons. I enjoy a good laugh.

As it is, my Card Carrying Conservative friend neck veins popout when the subject of government not sitting until March is broached.

[Shakeyhands]

Luckily for the CPC, 50,000+ are dead in Haiti and that has eaten up the news cycles. Without that, I imagine that the drop maywell have been bigger. Thank God for small mercys eh CPC Fans!!

[Smallc]

I think that the government's quick response will help them..until the: what if Harper had kept his promise and doubled the size of DART questions are asked...or the what if the JSS hadn't been cancelled allowing the Preserver to forgo refit so it would have been available questions.

[Wild Bill]

I don't believe there is a better way to describe blowing a 15 point lead that had a 177 seat projection and turn it into a 1.6% lead and a loss of 33 seats.

Anyone in Politics would call this a MASSIVE DROP.

Yeah, things have progressed to the point where it cannot be denied that Harper has taken a hit.

Now we have to see if the hit sticks! After all, it's one thing to get mad at Harper over a single issue. Give it a few weeks and the anger fades. Everyone understands that he is a politician, after all!

Getting upset over "perogies" is one thing. Deciding that Ignatieff is therefore a better choice is quite another. Most of us are used to holding our noses when we vote. We never get a good fit for a choice at the polls. Just whoever smells the least.

Harper may be in need of a shower but so far Ignatieff hasn't turned into a rose!

The next few months should be interesting...

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The only way to seal a Harper majority is for all of them to work together. Coalition redux would kill the opposition.

For the last time, it just isn't going to happen. Why would Ignatieff try to form a coalition government when he's in striking distance of winning government. A minority, albeit, but government nonetheless.

Harper is just now finding out that he has issues. Down in the polls, and derided for his choice to prorogue he is begin to see a wall of opposition. Afghan issues, infrastructure deficits,are just at the visible part of the structure there is far more to be seen yet.

I must agree a coalition isn't going to happen, because Iggy has neither the balls or the brains to pull it off.

[ToadBrother]

Yeah, things have progressed to the point where it cannot be denied that Harper has taken a hit.

Now we have to see if the hit sticks! After all, it's one thing to get mad at Harper over a single issue. Give it a few weeks and the anger fades. Everyone understands that he is a politician, after all!

Getting upset over "perogies" is one thing. Deciding that Ignatieff is therefore a better choice is quite another. Most of us are used to holding our noses when we vote. We never get a good fit for a choice at the polls. Just whoever smells the least.

Harper may be in need of a shower but so far Ignatieff hasn't turned into a rose!

The next few months should be interesting...

Clearly the voters have of yet to draw a line between the perceived and/or real failings of Harper and Iggy. The Tory support seems to be falling off the map. That's no good for the Tories, of course, and has got to keep them awake at night. But if Iggy can't capitalize on it (and we've seen him drop the ball on this before), then this government has got eight or nine months at minimum (and it wouldn't surprise me if it was this time next year before anyone seriously considered another election).

If Iggy can't turn this one to his advantage in the next few months, I think the Liberals will probably seriously begin making noises. His collapse last summer can be excused to some degree as being the screwups of a greenhorn, but he's been in the game a year now, and if he hasn't figured Harper out, and stabilized his own position and strategies, then I doubt he ever will. Harper's a tough cookie but he's obviously not invincible, nor is he some wizardly political mastermind. Political masterminds don't take a 10+ point lead and blow it in four months.

[eyeball]

Most of us are used to holding our noses when we vote. We never get a good fit for a choice at the polls. Just whoever smells the least.

This sort of comment sure captures how deeply senescent and decadent our democracy is and these poll numbers tell me to expect even fewer Canadians to participate in such a degenerate scam in the future.

That's good news as far as I'm concerned. If the misuse of our system of governance isn't enough to bring it down perhaps disuse will. Speaking for myself the last thing I want is for my vote to be mistaken as an endorsement of it.

[August1991]

Luckily for the CPC, 50,000+ are dead in Haiti and that has eaten up the news cycles. Without that, I imagine that the drop maywell have been bigger. Thank God for small mercys eh CPC Fans!!

50,000? Lucky?

Harper will get a poll boost from this Haitian earthquake. Do polls matter? No - except before elections.

---

My conclusion? Federal Liberal activists should wonder about their activism.

[madmax]

Yeah, things have progressed to the point where it cannot be denied that Harper has taken a hit.

Aye.

Now we have to see if the hit sticks! After all, it's one thing to get mad at Harper over a single issue. Give it a few weeks and the anger fades. Everyone understands that he is a politician, after all!

I would agree with you. This wasn't to be an "issue" and this "non issue" became an "issue" and has gone on for 16 straight days, and is very likely to pickup more steam, perhaps cool a little, then bubble and stew when the Olympics hits. After that, who knows?

Getting upset over "perogies" is one thing. Deciding that Ignatieff is therefore a better choice is quite another. Most of us are used to holding our noses when we vote. We never get a good fit for a choice at the polls. Just whoever smells the least.

Harper may be in need of a shower but so far Ignatieff hasn't turned into a rose!

The next few months should be interesting...

People don't have to like a leader. I don't think Harper has come off as warm or likeable. Same for Ignatieff, he is one step more removed from the public. So, between GAFFES and personality, its back to the battle of mistakes.

With many variables, based on "current" circumstances it will be a battle of ridings and not Party or with leaders making a modest % difference in the outcome. Another minority and a shift in some marginal Mps on both sides means next parliment looks like a tossed salad again.

Looking at the thread title it doesn't specify, "long term" or "Election" but does suggest "HURT".

There is definitely alot of pain in the CPC camp for the next little while.

[ToadBrother]

50,000? Lucky?

Harper will get a poll boost from this Haitian earthquake. Do polls matter? No - except before elections.

---

My conclusion? Federal Liberal activists should wonder about their activism.

I suspect if he gets a big bump, say 5 points, from the Haiti disaster, we'll have every Tory supporter here trumpeting their Dear Leader.

Polls only matter to politicos when they show their side on the up side. Otherwise their ridiculed, derided and denied.

[William Ashley]

I suspect if he gets a big bump, say 5 points, from the Haiti disaster, we'll have every Tory supporter here trumpeting their Dear Leader.

Polls only matter to politicos when they show their side on the up side. Otherwise their ridiculed, derided and denied.

Conservatives like millions of dollars to go to develope the third world and the overburdoned (not enough troops to serve the 2400 troop commitment to afghanistan) seeing close to 1000 troops deployed to Haiti - the world aid already outstrips the 700+ million in lost GDP (haiti actually stands to make money from the disaster. And this the first black republic.

Which of those factors actually attract the conservative voters while a 50 billion deficit and overburdoned CF are happening. What is the need when the US has thousands of personnel there and an aircraft carrier?

How much are the c17 flights and c130 flights costing?

I never realized conservatives supported pointless military overspending.

Haiti always has been poor - the flattening of port au prince doesn't change that.

Edited January 16, 2010 by William Ashley

[DrGreenthumb]

Need to book a hall for a party of up to 308?

[August1991]

The Conservatives enjoyed the support of 37 per cent of voters across the country, followed by the Liberals with 29 per cent and the NDP with 16 per cent. In Quebec, 39 per cent of voters would cast their vote for the Bloc Québécois, pollster Ipsos Reid says. The Liberals were second in Quebec, with 25 per cent support, following by the Conservatives at 17 per cent and the NDP at 11 per cent.

Montreal Gazette

IMV, the Conservatives have been bouncing around 35% for the past few months, year or so. (IOW, the prorogue story has changed nothing, Richard Colvin changed nothing and if anything, he has the potential for blowback.)

Polls are +/- 3 points and the Tories have stayed more or less within that bound over the past year or so.

The bigger question is: why are the Tories only at 35%?

----

I reckon women, francophones (in Montreal, NB and Ontario) and Catholics (non-practicing). Dunno.

Edited March 3, 2010 by August1991

[blueblood]

Montreal Gazette

IMV, the Conservatives have been bouncing around 35% for the past few months, year or so. (IOW, the prorogue story has changed nothing, Richard Colvin changed nothing and if anything, he has the potential for blowback.)

Polls are +/- 3 points and the Tories have stayed more or less within that bound over the past year or so.

The bigger question is: why are the Tories only at 35%?

----

I reckon women, francophones and Catholics. Dunno.

The apparent success of Trudeau's social experiment starting to bear fruit...

[August1991]

The apparent success of Trudeau's social experiment starting to bear fruit...

Please quote me accurately.

I reckon women, francophones (in Montreal, NB and Ontario) and Catholics (non-practicing). Dunno.

Canadian women generally don't vote Harper. Francophones (outside of Quebec City/Beauce) don't for vote him. Urban Canadians (often non-practicing Catholics) don't like Harper.

Why?

[msdogfood]

Immigration to Canada, under the rule of Clifford Sifton.

Wilfrid Laurier was the sole Catholic and sole French-Canadian in the federal cabinet of 1896. Such was the cost of a French-speaking Catholic federal PM. But Canada had one, within 30 years of Confederation.

Compared to so many other societies elsewhere in the world, we Canadians manage minority relations in a civilized manner. We have done it for centuries.

----

Returning to the point of the thread: Canada is not a country. Canada is a federal state. Canadian federal politics are about tactics. Harper seems to be a good tactician.

Canadian voters want such federal politicians.

hurt !!!!!!!!!!!!!.

[blueblood]

Please quote me accurately.

Canadian women generally don't vote Harper. Francophones (outside of Quebec City/Beauce) don't for vote him. Urban Canadians (often non-practicing Catholics) don't like Harper.

Why?

I wasn't referring to you as the "fruit of Trudeau's social experiment". I was referring to the flag waving, anti-american, "right of centre are evil", and "Canada would be a dictatorship without the charter" type of people. Apparently a lot of Canadians have these views and they elect people to represent them.

[bloodyminded]

I wasn't referring to you as the "fruit of Trudeau's social experiment". I was referring to the flag waving, anti-american, "right of centre are evil", and "Canada would be a dictatorship without the charter" type of people. Apparently a lot of Canadians have these views and they elect people to represent them.

So...Francophones, city-dwellers, and...wait for it...women...have been thoroughly indoctrinated by Trudeau's ideas.

The overhwelming majority of the country are indoctrinated fools.

Except for the minority of English-speaking rural males. They tend to be more wise.

Awesome theory.

[DrGreenthumb]

Please quote me accurately.

Canadian women generally don't vote Harper. Francophones (outside of Quebec City/Beauce) don't for vote him. Urban Canadians (often non-practicing Catholics) don't like Harper.

Why?

They can tell a paternalistic authoritarian douchebag when they see one I guess.

[Smallc]

So...Francophones, city-dwellers, and...wait for it...women...have been thoroughly indoctrinated by Trudeau's ideas.

The overhwelming majority of the country are indoctrinated fools.

Except for the minority of English-speaking rural males. They tend to be more wise.

Awesome theory.

The worst part is, rural Canada generally buys that theory...especially western rural Canada.

[bloodyminded]

The worst part is, rural Canada generally buys that theory...especially western rural Canada.

Well, that certainly speaks well for them, doesn't it?

[Smallc]

Well, that certainly speaks well for them, doesn't it?

I have several family members in my community that think everything to do with urban areas is evil and immoral. Generally, rural western Canadians have never met something urban or government related that they didn't want to complain about.

[Topaz]

In Harper's case, its NOT the proroguing as much ITS the REASON for it.... to save their sorry rears!!!

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I have several family members in my community that think everything to do with urban areas is evil and immoral. Generally, rural western Canadians have never met something urban or government related that they didn't want to complain about.

Say what?

[Smallc]

I happen to know it's not just my family members....or my community.