Will proroguing Parliament hurt the Tories' political success?

Smallc · January 13, 2010

point proven.

Very well proven I'd say. The two posts before yours both had about zero point. One was saying that people that don't do what I think they should are idiots, and the other was paranoid of the scary central Canada.

Alta4ever · January 13, 2010

Very well proven I'd say. The two posts before yours both had about zero point. One was saying that people that don't do what I think they should are idiots, and the other was paranoid of the scary central Canada.

Their is no paranoia it is fact, Alberta has been treated as Canada's slave province we do the work while our tax dollars are transfered to other provinces. Not to mention the raping Trudeau gave us with the NEP.

Smallc · January 13, 2010

See, paranoia. Even the leader of Wild Rose said Ontario also givens a great deal. Alberta's no more a slave than any other province...they just happen to be lucky enough to be far above the equalization average.

capricorn · January 13, 2010

That was a very interesting post madmax.

But the fact that Neither Harper, his ministers, nor former strategists can stay on message and their diversions and reasons are in multiples per day suggests that the ship is adrift.

I fully agree with your assessment. Yet, I suggest the Liberals too have failed to stay on message throughout their communications. At first it was all about silencing questions about detainees. Then, it was about Harper's arrogance. Then, it was about Harper's disdain for democracy. Then, it was about disrespect of Parliament and on and on.

Regarding the Liberal ads and the central theme of an attempted cover up by the Conservatives. In general usage, a cover up implies that you have doctored information or documents to hide a truth you don't want divulged. And I don't mean redacted documents made available on request, which could be defended on the basis of national security imperative. I mean manufacturing or altering documents that can be proved to be fraudulent. The ad also takes the government to task on the environment. Well, it could well be lots of Canadians agree with the position the government took in Copenhagen. And of course, it was thrown in that Harper has something to hide and gave himself a gift for Christmas. Too much territory was covered and takes the mind in too many directions. Hence there is no central message.

It is also apparent that Harper has let the Liberals back in the game while taking every joe public who voted for them and give them reason to ask a simple question. "WHY".

This is true.

After 2 weeks the Harper government is struggling to support the simplist message.

And the message continues to be foggy and disjointed.

But I see alot of checking happening and most of it coming from the general public. A governments worst enemy when angry and awoken.

Is the noise anti-Conservative or anti-Harper? Because I think there is a difference. I see that here on MLW, the criticism regarding prorogation is largely directed at Harper. With the voters, if it's anti-Harper would they be angry enough to throw out the Conservatives?

As for facebook groups.
...

The silent majority is starting to take a good hard look at the Conservatives.

Again I ask. Is it Harper or the Conservatives? The Liberal ads hint that it is Harper who is the problem. I think the Liberals should have avoided centering on Harper and targeted the party exclusively. That would have thrown the whole Conservative party into the loop.

Can Harper Change the Channel again?

It may be too late for that IMO. It is people like Tom Flanagan who will change the channel. He said forget about all the excuses dispensed by the Tories and Harper, it's all about silencing discussion about the Afghan detainees. Outwardly, that looks like an indictment on the Conservative but is it really? Intentionally or not, his comments divert the message from the arrogance of the PM to a specific issue, an issue that the public doesn't seem to get worked up about. That is the opposition's concern with the welfare of suspected insurgents, who may be complicit in killing our soldiers.

The channel can only be changed now by the events unfolding in the next month. What they will be is anyone's guess.

Alta4ever · January 13, 2010

See, paranoia. Even the leader of Wild Rose said Ontario also givens a great deal. Alberta's no more a slave than any other province...they just happen to be lucky enough to be far above the equalization average.

per capita we are each albertan contributes around 4000 per person to the rest of canada (net) thru equalization, the next runner up use to be ont at a paltry 1700 per person.

How can you have paranoia over something that is already happening?

The government is not a charity

Edited January 13, 2010 by Alta4ever

nicky10013 · January 13, 2010

per capita we are each albertan contributes around 4000 per person to the rest of canada (net) thru equalization, the next runner up use to be ont at a paltry 1700 per person.

How can you have paranoia over something that is already happening?

Palm, meet face.

madmax · January 13, 2010

That was a very interesting post madmax.

I fully agree with your assessment. The channel can only be changed now by the events unfolding in the next month. What they will be is anyone's guess.

Thanks, ditto.

I can't answer the question whether or not its "Harper or Conservative". I would take a stab (not literally), at the former vs the latter.

Can only concur with the vast majority of your post and the rest is speculation that we can only guess at.

waldo · January 13, 2010

is the Economist's criticism of the Harper Conservatives perogy precedent... as you say, "Liberal (desperate) politics?
I seem to recall the Conservatives (particularly the Blogging Tories) really pumping up the 2008 Facebook group/numbers that rallied "against the Coalition". In that regard, is the 165K (and counting) Facebook group against the latest Harper Conservative Perogy... as you say, "Liberal (desperate) politics?

is the latest collective protest action taken by political scientists, legal scholars and university philosophers against the Harper Conservative Perogy... as you say, "Liberal (desperate) politics?

This is actually funny! To support your point you are using the most conceited groups in our society that are respected the least, even distrusted, by the common man.
yes, yes, Wild Bill... we all know the Conservative disdain for academia - for anyone with education... but, I gave you a few examples to chew on. Apparently, you must not think the scathing Economist review is funny... nor the Facebook group, which has grown another 5000 members, now at 170K - and counting. Given your reply suggests you favour the "common man" view of the Harper Conservative perogy move, I note you also don't comment on the Facebook group, at all - whatsoever... interesting.
It's not "conservative disdain"... It's mine! I'm not a conservative.
I wasn't thinking of "anyone with an education". To me, education means physics, math, chemistry and the like.

your 'common man' Facebook group against the Harper perogy move now stands at 180,000 members - and counting.

as to your uneducated group of political scientists, legal scholars and university philosophers:

As Canadian university professors dedicated to educating students about democratic institutions, we are deeply concerned by Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s decision to use his power to prorogue Parliament for a second year in a row in circumstances that allow him to evade democratic accountability. The Prime Minister is not only making cavalier use of the discretionary powers entrusted to him in our Parliamentary system, but in so doing he is undermining our system of democratic government.
It has been noted by many observers that the Prime Minister did nothing technically wrong by requesting that Parliament be prorogued and in fixing the date for a Throne Speech after the Vancouver Olympics.

The Prime Minister does have the sole responsibility to request prorogation from the Governor-General (although the custom is to request it in person, out of respect for the office of the Queen’s representative, and that was not done in this case). But it is highly unusual – and improper – to request it in circumstances like these.

What, precisely, did the Prime Minister do wrong in proroguing Parliament?

Our parliamentary and constitutional institutions are grounded not just in explicit rules but also in the spirit of those rules.

Think of the idea of a “loyal opposition” so central to our practice of responsible government. The role of the opposition parties is to hold the government to a high standard of justification. The opposition parties can neglect their responsibilities by being servile and pliant. They can also misuse their powers for narrowly partisan purposes.

We expect them to avoid both these pitfalls. We expect them to be vigorous. And, while an element of partisanship is inevitable in democratic systems of government, we expect that it will be moderated by public-spiritedness and a shared concern for the country’s common good. If it isn’t, then the opposition has failed to do its job.

What is true of opposition parties is true in spades of the office of the Prime Minister, given the very great powers that are concentrated there in our system of responsible government. We expect that the Prime Minister will do his part to ensure that this system works, and that MPs can fulfill the role we elect them to do. Part of what that means is to exercise self-restraint, and not use the powers that he possesses to shut down the mechanisms of accountability to Parliament and the Canadian people.

The use of the ability to prorogue by the present Prime Minister clearly displays no such self-restraint. It was nakedly partisan when it was invoked to save his government from defeat in a confidence motion in December 2008, and it is nakedly partisan now, when it is being used to short-circuit the work of the Parliamentary Committee looking into the Afghan detainees question and evade Parliament’s request that the government turn over documents pertaining to that question.

The normal way in which a government secures a break in a parliamentary session is through adjournment. That permits the institutions of government to continue. Committees can do their work. Legislation that is in the system can be picked up and advanced once the adjournment is over. In prorogation, all the business of Parliament ceases. Any laws that are in process, with the exception of private members’ bills, have to be introduced again, at the very first step of the process.

The government’s post-election legislative agenda is nowhere near having been fulfilled. The Prime Minister cannot, therefore, credibly invoke the purpose that the power to prorogue properly serves, which is to provide the government with space outside the cut and thrust of Parliamentary sessions in which to submit a new legislative agenda to Parliament.

Given the short-term, tactical, and partisan purposes served by prorogation, and given the absence of any plausible public purpose served by it, we conclude that the Prime Minister has violated the trust of Parliament and of the Canadian people. We emphasize moreover that the violation of this trust strikes at the heart of our system of government, which relies upon the use of discretionary powers for the public good rather than merely for partisan purposes. How do we make sure it serves the public good? By requiring our governments to face Parliament and justify their actions, in the face of vigorous questioning.

The Prime Minister’s actions risk setting a precedent that weakens an important condition of democratic government – the ability of the people, acting through their elected representatives, to hold the government accountable for its actions.

madmax · January 13, 2010

In answer to the Thread title.

LIKE A ROCK!!!

See polling data thread.

"What the new numbers mean, says Woolstencroft, is that the prorogation has hurt the Conservatives but not overly helped the Liberals or New Democrats — at least not yet."

Edited January 13, 2010 by madmax

Rue · January 13, 2010

Their is no paranoia it is fact, Alberta has been treated as Canada's slave province we do the work while our tax dollars are transfered to other provinces. Not to mention the raping Trudeau gave us with the NEP.

What absolute nonsense. Slave province? Only someone born in a world of affluence they take for granted would state this. You want to know what it is like to be in a slave province? Go find out what happened to Biafrans in Nigeria. Go find out what happens to Sudanese from that country's southern districts.

Go find out what happened to Bagladesh when it was called East Pakistan. Go find out what happened to East Timor when it was part of Indonesia.

Give it a rest.

Alberta hard done by right. Yes Albertans walk around with bloated bellies while we Easterners live off their blood. Give it a rest.

Ontario has paid more in transfer money then any other province and we do not whine about it.

The vast majority of Alberta's oil is sold to the states, not Eastern Canada. Go prove that wrong.

People out East in the have not provinces do not get their oil from Alberta precisely because you would whine and suggest you can't get as much money selling it to Maritimers as you can Americans.

Alberta benefits from confederation precisely because its allowed to bloat and become rich off its oil money and not distribute the majority of it to the rest of the country.

You have no idea what it is like to live in a province being raped by a corupt central government.

Go talk to an Estonian, Latvian, Lithuanian, Ukrainian. Go ask people who live in Southern French states what they think of their Northern counterparts.

Go sit with the Basques. Go ask the Scotts and Taffies how they feel about the federal government.

Go ask the midwestern US states or southern states what they think about California or the Eastern states.

You confuse regionalism with tyranny.

Edited January 13, 2010 by Rue

Rue · January 13, 2010

Actually this web site has a terrific summary of how equalization payments are calculated

and applied and it shows that and I quote from it, " the key recipients of equalization payments are the Atlantic provinces and Quebec, especially when examining the amounts they receive on a per capita basis. By contrast, Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario generally do not receive equalization payments (although, British Columbia did receive small levels of payment between 1999 and 2006)."

Ontario and B.C. are in the same boat as Alberta and Ontario is in the worst position of the 3 because the formula has not adapted to the huge losses of jobs in the manufacturing sector in Ontario.

nicky10013 · January 13, 2010

Considering this about the Tories political success, this article is pretty important I suppose.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/750302--parliament-shutdown-leaves-tories-liberals-nearly-tied-poll?bn=1

Liberals and Tories in Dead Heat

Last October, Strategic Counsel found 41 per cent support for Conservatives, 28 per cent for the Liberals and 14 per cent for the New Democrats. The newest numbers show 31 per cent for the Conservatives, 30 per cent for the Liberals and 18 per cent for the NDP. The poll is deemed accurate within 2.27 percentage points, 18 times out of 20.

EDIT: this was on another thread. Sorry!

Edited January 13, 2010 by nicky10013

madmax · January 13, 2010

That was a very interesting post madmax.

Again I ask. Is it Harper or the Conservatives?

Updating my speculation based upon these polling numbers. Its definitely falling on Prime Minister Harpers Shoulders.

"While Harper closed 2009 with a better momentum score than Ignatieff, this is no longer the case. Now, Harper’s score is the worst of the three leaders at -35 (9% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 44% say their views have worsened)."

Moonbox · January 13, 2010

Poll from Globeandmail

This is the kind of arrogant blunder opposing parties dream of. I didn't think it would be as big deal as it is but I'm glad it turned out to be and I never understood how stupid Harper and the Tories could be about this.

Edit: Fixed Link

Edited January 14, 2010 by Charles Anthony
merged thread

Mr.Canada · January 13, 2010

Tories Slammed in polls

This is the kind of arrogant blunder opposing parties dream of. I didn't think it would be as big deal as it is but I'm glad it turned out to be and I never understood how stupid Harper and the Tories could be about this.

Link broken.

nicky10013 · January 13, 2010

I'm more than happy to provide the link.

Here you go.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/750302--shutdown-leaves-tories-liberals-nearly-tied-poll?bn=1

ToadBrother · January 13, 2010

Link broken.

That seems to some up Harper's problems at this point.

Wild Bill · January 13, 2010

I'm more than happy to provide the link.

Here you go.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/article/750302--shutdown-leaves-tories-liberals-nearly-tied-poll?bn=1

Interesting how the article mentions that while the Tories have been hurt there has been no gains in the Liberal or NDP numbers. This tends to confirm my oft-stated belief that it's not enough to make your opponent look bad. You also have to do something to make yourself look like a better alternative.

I guess Ignatieff and Layton are still learning...

ToadBrother · January 13, 2010

Interesting how the article mentions that while the Tories have been hurt there has been no gains in the Liberal or NDP numbers. This tends to confirm my oft-stated belief that it's not enough to make your opponent look bad. You also have to do something to make yourself look like a better alternative.

I guess Ignatieff and Layton are still learning...

It's an odd observation when it basically means the Liberals and the Conservatives (at least according to this poll) are in a dead heat (31% for the Tories via 30% for the Liberals). It means Iggy has popularity levels good enough to pursue prorogation as a way of gaining leverage, and it means that Harper is now on the defensive. Harper does much better when he's the guy with the crowbar in his hand, but even if this poll is a little heavy on Conservative losses, it goes well enough with the other recent polls to suggest that Harper blundered.

If the numbers hold up for the next month and a half, it means any notion of Harper tabling a budget filled with poison pills is probably out. He'd be pretty daft to risk an election when the Liberals are breathing down his neck. The Tories have, regardless of poll, receded from the highs necessary to even consider a majority government, and if these numbers hold true, makes the potential for an election highly unadvised.

Edited January 13, 2010 by ToadBrother

Wild Bill · January 13, 2010

Updating my speculation based upon these polling numbers. Its definitely falling on Prime Minister Harpers Shoulders.

"While Harper closed 2009 with a better momentum score than Ignatieff, this is no longer the case. Now, Harper’s score is the worst of the three leaders at -35 (9% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 44% say their views have worsened)."

Interesting. Harper seems to be a man of extremes. He can be very good for a long time and then make an unexpected blunder that really hurts him.

Still, time will tell if this issue has any legs with Canadians at large. When I hear people talk about it I hear complaints that MP's are getting a longer vacation. This might get people angry for a short time but it's nothing like an Adscam scandal! As I noted in another thread, while "perogies" have hurt Harper's numbers they haven't helped Ignatieff or Layton at all.

We should know better in a few weeks. I still think that the issue can easily be turned back against the Opposition parties. If it's all such a big deal then why don't they force an election over it? Telling Canadians that Harper is eating all their kittens while they're not looking but the Opposition understands that the people will cheerfully give up their kittens to a horrible death as long as we don't have an unwanted election is really starting to stretch the malarkey a bit too thin. They may be handing Harper a hammer to be used against themselves.

ToadBrother · January 13, 2010

Updating my speculation based upon these polling numbers. Its definitely falling on Prime Minister Harpers Shoulders.

"While Harper closed 2009 with a better momentum score than Ignatieff, this is no longer the case. Now, Harper’s score is the worst of the three leaders at -35 (9% of Canadians report an improvement in their opinion of the Prime Minister over the past month, while 44% say their views have worsened)."

It also means the ball is back in Iggy's court, and thus far he hasn't exactly been a shining star. But if he sticks to his guns, and he and his caucus show up on the Hill on January 25th, and they can give off the airs of a government in waiting, I suspect it may be a game changer.

Wild Bill · January 13, 2010

It's an odd observation when it basically means the Liberals and the Conservatives (at least according to this poll) are in a dead heat (31% for the Tories via 30% for the Liberals). It means Iggy has popularity levels good enough to pursue prorogation as a way of gaining leverage, and it means that Harper is now on the defensive. Harper does much better when he's the guy with the crowbar in his hand, but even if this poll is a little heavy on Conservative losses, it goes well enough with the other recent polls to suggest that Harper blundered.

If the numbers hold up for the next month and a half, it means any notion of Harper tabling a budget filled with poison pills is probably out. He'd be pretty daft to risk an election when the Liberals are breathing down his neck. The Tories have, regardless of poll, receded from the highs necessary to even consider a majority government, and if these numbers hold true, makes the potential for an election highly unadvised.

Hey, I'm not claiming that Harper's not taking some lumps. I'm just saying that there's no signs that more people are looking at the other parties as a better choice!

This poll is a snapshot of people's feelings, at this point in time. It's not about their voting intentions. It just shows they're PO'd with Harper right now!

The big question is still unanswered. Will it change their vote? Is some extra MP vacation enough to do more than just tick them off? Harper has ticked folks off lots of times, especially me! However, when it comes time to check off the ballot one has to consider if his faux pas are major or minor and compare them to the other choices.

I still say that Ignatieff desperately has to find something on which to hitch his star! We never see or hear much from him these days. Lots of finger pointing at Harper but nothing to make his own star glow brighter. To be fair, it's always hard when you're in Opposition and don't have as much opportunity but still, that's his challenge.

If he doesn't find a way to do it, Harper is STILL going to win the next election, if only by default!

Shakeyhands · January 13, 2010

I'd think if there is that much of a decline and neither the NDP or the Liberals havegained, that they are parked votes. It will be interesting to see from whence they came, and if they return...

ToadBrother · January 13, 2010

Hey, I'm not claiming that Harper's not taking some lumps. I'm just saying that there's no signs that more people are looking at the other parties as a better choice!

This poll is a snapshot of people's feelings, at this point in time. It's not about their voting intentions. It just shows they're PO'd with Harper right now!

The compartmentalization here is extraordinary. When polls showed last fall that Harper was within pissing distance of a majority, all the Tory supporters were going "In your face, Liberal commie bastards!!!!" Now it's all very "it's just a snapshot, it don't mean nuthin'".

The big question is still unanswered. Will it change their vote? Is some extra MP vacation enough to do more than just tick them off? Harper has ticked folks off lots of times, especially me! However, when it comes time to check off the ballot one has to consider if his faux pas are major or minor and compare them to the other choices.

If that's a measure, then Harper hasn't exactly ever been a big performer. We keep hearing how this majority government of his is right around the corner, and yet, when you blink your eyes, it evaporates.

I still say that Ignatieff desperately has to find something on which to hitch his star! We never see or hear much from him these days. Lots of finger pointing at Harper but nothing to make his own star glow brighter. To be fair, it's always hard when you're in Opposition and don't have as much opportunity but still, that's his challenge.

If he doesn't find a way to do it, Harper is STILL going to win the next election, if only by default!

Where, at least we know where Iggy will be on January 25th. If it's a game of shining stars, maybe that will do it.

My biggest problem with Iggy is that he gets it so right, and then gets it so wrong. He had Harper in a headlock last spring (spring 2009) and by summer had utterly bungled it with his "I'm gonna topple you any and every day!"

William Ashley · January 14, 2010

Link broken.

Here is a link with the same title...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/bureau-blog/prorogation-hammers-conservative-support-in-polls/article1430143/

and

a non blog

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/concern-over-suspension-of-parliament-grows-poll-finds/article1423451/

It will come down to a budget... hopefully it will prevent pork barreling.

It is all up to the budget.. and Flaherty either delivers an economic mess with a huge deficit OR he delivers nothing much other than cuts to programs - both of these are unlikely - what is he delivering though?

If any of this carries momentum then what you have is both the NDP and liberals up and the Block in the same ball park. A budget deal will need to be cut, and you arn't going to see a stimulus package like last time - also the opposition wasn't all that happy with the delivery of the program either.

Edited January 14, 2010 by William Ashley