Would Alliens From Other Worlds Visit Us?

[Oleg Bach]

Broadcasts from our planet via electronic signals have been sent out all over the universe and eventually if someone that is intelligent hears them they will certainly be horrified at our media - our so called diversionary entertainment and news broadcasts are a relentless stream of pure unadulterated vileness. If you wonder if we are alone in the universe we probably and always will be seeing that we are a nasty form of life with no real redeeming qualities to really speak of...so even if they are out there we can be certain they will never come here. If they did it would be a clean up operation...but even that would probably be to distasteful a task. The reason I am writing this is because after not watching television for a few years and now channel surfing for the last month I have seen a quickening and thickening of pure shit under the name of human communications..It sure looks quite hopeless and seems to be getting worse.

[kimmy]

I remember a scene in a movie where a space probe is being prepared to be launched on a path that will take it far beyond our solar system. Aside from the usual sorts of things, they also place a diagram of our solar system and of human beings, and a recording of the Brandenburg Concerto. "If another species finds this, I think I would be very happy if their first exposure to humanity was the Brandenburg Concerto," someone says. I can't recall what movie the scene was from, but that part of it, the idea that the Brandenburg Concerto would be the ideal representation for our species, was quite charming.

I think the worst possible first impression would be if the alien species discovered a cache of Oleg Bach messages.

-k

[Oleg Bach]

I remember a scene in a movie where a space probe is being prepared to be launched on a path that will take it far beyond our solar system. Aside from the usual sorts of things, they also place a diagram of our solar system and of human beings, and a recording of the Brandenburg Concerto. "If another species finds this, I think I would be very happy if their first exposure to humanity was the Brandenburg Concerto," someone says. I can't recall what movie the scene was from, but that part of it, the idea that the Brandenburg Concerto would be the ideal representation for our species, was quite charming.

I think the worst possible first impression would be if the alien species discovered a cache of Oleg Bach messages.

-k

Ooooch..Kimmy that hurt! My point was that pop media is a disgrace - sure there is great angelic beauty in us..but we are making a very bad impression with the bulk of our so-called creative aspirations. As for dead people music such as the classic you mentioned..well that old art form is now supported by rich people who's enterprises usually have something to do with destroying the planet bit by bit...funny that you support dead artists and there is very little support corporately of good artists that are alive...I would say the reason for that is the simple fact that the rich and powerful do not want to contend with the creative mind while it is still living...so uncontrolable and non-complant...that's why paintings sell after one has passed away..the rich love the art and hate the creators...having said that....as for the alien species not liking me...well I don't need their approval or yours....oh and that Brandenburg tune...wasn't that used as a Nazi marching song? I believe I have just made my point.

[Guest TrueMetis]

Broadcasts from our planet via electronic signals have been sent out all over the universe and eventually if someone that is intelligent hears them they will certainly be horrified at our media - our so called diversionary entertainment and news broadcasts are a relentless stream of pure unadulterated vileness.

Most of the radio and other signals will degrade so much that if aliens were to pick them up it would be nothing but static.

[Shwa]

Most of the radio and other signals will degrade so much that if aliens were to pick them up it would be nothing but static.

And that would be if aliens bothered with radio signals at all.

[Oleg Bach]

Put yourself in the position of being someone from another world or dimention and imagine after watching some of the slimmy reality TV - where you have Dog The Bounty Hunter standing in all his white trash glory forming a prayer circle with the other tatooed idots just before they go out to hunt poor black people addicted to dope? Or some gay creep encouraging a woman that they hate to take on the body shape of a young boy by the practice of gutteral purging...Or three quarters of a planet on the verge of death while the other segment of earthlings pay billions on ways of getting rid of life giving fat? Why would you want to come here? If there is intelligent life out there I am sure they are just playing a waiting game and waiting for us to destroy ourselves..THEN they might come to put this earthly heaven to good use instead of abuse.

[wyly]

I doubt any alien race with the technological ability to reach us would want to, what could we possibly offer them...unless they're on some crusade to save the idiot races of the galaxy from suicidal self-destructive tendencies they'll probably avoid us, wait until we destroy ourselves and then move in...

[Wilber]

We've only been putting out man made radio waves for about 100 years which means any other civilization would have to be within a 100 light years (about half a block in astronomical terms) to receive them. Assuming they have been received by a civilization advanced enough to travel at light speed and they leave today, we can expect to see them in another 100 years or so.

[Wilber]

I remember a scene in a movie where a space probe is being prepared to be launched on a path that will take it far beyond our solar system. Aside from the usual sorts of things, they also place a diagram of our solar system and of human beings, and a recording of the Brandenburg Concerto. "If another species finds this, I think I would be very happy if their first exposure to humanity was the Brandenburg Concerto," someone says. I can't recall what movie the scene was from, but that part of it, the idea that the Brandenburg Concerto would be the ideal representation for our species, was quite charming.

I think the worst possible first impression would be if the alien species discovered a cache of Oleg Bach messages.

-k

The two Voyager spacecraft launched in the mid seventies carry:

"a gold-plated audio-visual disc in the event that either spacecraft is ever found by intelligent life-forms from other planetary systems. The discs carry photos of the Earth and its lifeforms, a range of scientific information, spoken greetings from the people (e.g. the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the President of the United States, and the children of the Planet Earth and a medley, "Sounds of Earth", that includes the sounds of whales, a baby crying, waves breaking on a shore, and a variety of music."

Wikipedia

[Michael Hardner]

The two Voyager spacecraft launched in the mid seventies carry:

... and the President of the United States,

Wikipedia

Nixon, btw.

[wyly]

The two Voyager spacecraft launched in the mid seventies carry:

"a gold-plated audio-visual disc in the event that either spacecraft is ever found by intelligent life-forms from other planetary systems. The discs carry photos of the Earth and its lifeforms, a range of scientific information, spoken greetings from the people (e.g. the Secretary-General of the United Nations and the President of the United States, and the children of the Planet Earth and a medley, "Sounds of Earth", that includes the sounds of whales, a baby crying, waves breaking on a shore, and a variety of music."

Wikipedia

odds of an alien civilization finding it?...is there a number small enough to accurately reflect that chance?

[Wilber]

odds of an alien civilization finding it?...is there a number small enough to accurately reflect that chance?

We don't know now do we but in the extremely unlikely event it did happen, that would be an amazing thing. Certainly worth the cost of the recording.

[wyly]

We don't know now do we but in the extremely unlikely event it did happen, that would be an amazing thing. Certainly worth the cost of the recording.

ya there's no harm in it...it's a message in a bottle, quite desperate considering the size of the ocean it's in...there was a Star Trek episode that depicted that unlikely event...

[DogOnPorch]

Meh...one might assume that if a space faring race has gotten to the point of exploring other solar systems, they will also have the ability to scan for such things like the Voyagers or Pioneers...et al.

...it's a message in a bottle, quite desperate considering the size of the ocean it's in...

Celestia gives a good idea how large the Universe is (free).

http://www.shatters.net/celestia/

http://www.celestiamotherlode.net/

[bush_cheney2004]

Meh...one might assume that if a space faring race has gotten to the point of exploring other solar systems, they will also have the ability to scan for such things like the Voyagers or Pioneers...et al.

Indeed, and it is likely that the first space faring race to find them will be....Earthlings! Now where is my Star Trek - The Motion Picture DVD.

[GostHacked]

Meh...one might assume that if a space faring race has gotten to the point of exploring other solar systems, they will also have the ability to scan for such things like the Voyagers or Pioneers...et al.

Celestia gives a good idea how large the Universe is (free).

http://www.shatters.net/celestia/

http://www.celestiamotherlode.net/

That pogram rocks. I recall jumping from star to star and then I found myself way out on the edge of our galaxy. So I kept up the star chasing and got out there... way out there. I rotated to look back at the Milky Way, wich on my 22" monitor was about the size of a quarter. I rotated around some more and this other galazy filled my screen. I can't recall the name of it, but I think I was closer to the Milky Way compared to this other huge galaxy. That was a 'blown my mind' moment.

[DogOnPorch]

I like to take it up to about 3 ly per second and let the stars race by Star Trek style. You need the extra star database from here to do it proper.

http://www.celestiamotherlode.net/catalog/extrasolar_stars.php

http://www.celestiamotherlode.net/creators/p_hartmann/starsdb2.1C_1.4.0.zip

[Oleg Bach]

What if I told you that I was absolutely sure that there are no alliens and the only life that exists in the entire endlessness is us...how would you feel about that possiblity? Yes it is just as possible that we are alone as it is that we are not. So folks..what do yah say about we being the only thing alive and thinking?

[Guest TrueMetis]

What if I told you that I was absolutely sure that there are no alliens and the only life that exists in the entire endlessness is us...how would you feel about that possiblity? Yes it is just as possible that we are alone as it is that we are not. So folks..what do yah say about we being the only thing alive and thinking?

I give you the Drake equation.

The Drake equation states that:

N = R^{\ast} \times f_p \times n_e \times f_{\ell} \times f_i \times f_c \times L \!

where:

N = the number of civilizations in our galaxy with which communication might be possible;

and

R* = the average rate of star formation per year in our galaxy

fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets

ne = the average number of planets that can potentially support life per star that has planets

fℓ = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life at some point

fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

fc = the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space

L = the length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space.[2]

The numbers used by Drake

Considerable disagreement on the values of most of these parameters exists, but the values used by Drake and his colleagues in 1961 were:

* R* = 10/year (10 stars formed per year, on the average over the life of the galaxy)

* fp = 0.5 (half of all stars formed will have planets)

* ne = 2 (stars with planets will have 2 planets capable of supporting life)

* fl = 1 (100% of these planets will develop life)

* fi = 0.01 (1% of which will be intelligent life)

* fc = 0.01 (1% of which will be able to communicate)

* L = 10,000 years (which will last 10,000 years).

Drake's values give N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10,000 = 10.

Different numbers by pessimist and optimists.

Some computations of the Drake equation, given different assumptions:

R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.01, fc = 0.01, and L = 50,000 years

N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 50,000 = 50 (so 50 civilizations exist in our galaxy at any given time, on average).

But a pessimist might equally well believe that life seldom becomes intelligent, and intelligent civilizations do not last very long:

R* = 10/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 1, fi = 0.001, fc = 0.01, and L = 500 years

N = 10 × 0.5 × 2 × 1 × 0.001 × 0.01 × 500 = 0.05 (we are probably alone).

Alternatively, making some more optimistic assumptions, and assuming that 10% of civilizations become willing and able to communicate, and then spread through their local star systems for 100,000 years (a very short period in geologic time):

R* = 20/year, fp = 0.1, ne = 0.5, fl = 1, fi = 0.5, fc = 0.1, and L = 100,000 years

N = 20 × 0.1 × 0.5 × 1 × 0.5 × 0.1 × 100,000 = 5,000.

Current numbers

This section attempts to list best current estimates for the parameters of the Drake equation.

R* = the rate of star creation in our galaxy

Estimated by Drake as 10/year. Latest calculations from NASA and the European Space Agency indicate that the current rate of star formation in our galaxy is about 7 per year.[4]

fp = the fraction of those stars that have planets

Estimated by Drake as 0.5. It is now known from modern planet searches that at least 40% of sun-like stars have planets[5], and the true proportion may be much higher, since only planets considerably larger than Earth can be detected with current technology.[6] Infra-red surveys of dust discs around young stars imply that 20-60% of sun-like stars may form terrestrial planets.[7]

ne = the average number of planets (satellites may perhaps sometimes be just as good candidates) that can potentially support life per star that has planets

Estimated by Drake as 2. Marcy et al.[6] note that most of the observed planets have very eccentric orbits, or orbit very close to the sun where the temperature is too high for earth-like life. However, several planetary systems that look more solar-system-like are known, such as HD 70642, HD 154345, or Gliese 849. These may well have smaller, as yet unseen, earth-sized planets in their habitable zones. Also, the variety of solar systems that might have habitable zones is not just limited to solar-type stars and earth-sized planets - it is now believed that even tidally locked planets close to red dwarves might have habitable zones, and some of the large planets detected so far could potentially support life - in early 2008, two different research groups concluded that Gliese 581d may possibly be habitable.[8][9] Since about 200 planetary systems are known, this implies ne > 0.005. Lineweaver has also determined that about 10% of star systems in the Galaxy are hospitable to life, by having heavy elements, being far from supernovae and being stable themselves for sufficient time.[10]

NASA's Kepler mission was launched on March 6, 2009. Unlike previous searches, it is sensitive to planets as small as Earth, and with orbital periods as long as a year. If successful, Kepler should provide a much better estimate of the number of planets per star that are found in the habitable zone.

Even if planets are in the habitable zone, however, the number of planets with the right proportion of elements may be difficult to estimate.[11] Also, the Rare Earth hypothesis, which posits that conditions for intelligent life are quite rare, has advanced a set of arguments based on the Drake equation that the number of planets or satellites that could support life is small, and quite possibly limited to Earth alone; in this case, the estimate of ne would be infinitesimal.

Added by me I wonder if they take into account life the lives can live in inhospitable places?

fl = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop life

Estimated by Drake as 1.

In 2002, Charles H. Lineweaver and Tamara M. Davis (at the University of New South Wales and the Australian Centre for Astrobiology) estimated fl as > 0.13 on planets that have existed for at least one billion years using a statistical argument based on the length of time life took to evolve on Earth.[12]

fi = the fraction of the above that actually go on to develop intelligent life

Estimated by Drake as 0.01 based on little or no evidence. This value remains particularly controversial. Pessimists point out that of tens of millions of species on Earth, only one has become intelligent[13] and infer a tiny value for fi. Optimists note the generally increasing complexity of life and conclude that the eventual appearance of intelligence might be inevitable, meaning fi=1. Skeptics point out that the large spread of values in this term and others make all estimates unreliable. (See criticism).

fc = the fraction of the above that are willing and able to communicate

Estimated by Drake as 0.01. There is considerable speculation why a civilization might exist but choose not to communicate, but there is no hard data.

L = the expected lifetime of such a civilization for the period that it can communicate across interstellar space

Estimated by Drake as 10,000 years.

In an article in Scientific American, Michael Shermer estimated L as 420 years, based on compiling the durations of sixty historical civilizations.[14] Using twenty-eight civilizations more recent than the Roman Empire he calculates a figure of 304 years for "modern" civilizations. It could also be argued from Michael Shermer's results that the fall of most of these civilizations was followed by later civilizations that carried on the technologies, so it's doubtful that they are separate civilizations in the context of the Drake equation. In the expanded version, including reappearance number, this lack of specificity in defining single civilizations doesn't matter for the end result, since such a civilization turnover could be described as an increase in the reappearance number rather than increase in L, stating that a civilization reappears in the form of the succeeding cultures. Furthermore, since none could communicate over interstellar space, the method of comparing with historical civilizations could be regarded as invalid.

The value of L can be estimated from the lifetime of our current civilization from the advent of radio astronomy in 1938 (dated from Grote Reber's parabolic dish radio telescope) to the current date. In 2009, this gives an L of 71 years. However such an assumption would be erroneous. 71 for the value of L would be an artificial minimum based on Earth's broadcasting history to date and would make unlikely the possibility of other civilizations existing. 10,000 for L is still the most popular estimate.

David Grinspoon has argued that once a civilization has developed it might overcome all threats to its survival. It will then last for an indefinite period of time, making the value for L potentially billions of years. If this is the case, then the galaxy has been steadily accumulating advanced civilizations since it formed.[15]

Values based on the above estimates,

R* = 7/year, fp = 0.5, ne = 2, fl = 0.33, fi = 0.01, fc = 0.01, and L = 10000 years

result in

N = 7 × 0.5 × 2 × 0.33 × 0.01 × 0.01 × 10000 = 2.31.

So 2.31 in the milky way which means many many more in the universe at large.

My link

Edited January 5, 2010 by TrueMetis

[DogOnPorch]

What if I told you that I was absolutely sure that there are no alliens and the only life that exists in the entire endlessness is us...how would you feel about that possiblity? Yes it is just as possible that we are alone as it is that we are not. So folks..what do yah say about we being the only thing alive and thinking?

Not probable. The Universe is more massive than you can imagine and stars like ours are not particularly rare. It's more a matter of being in the right place at the right time as to whether two space faring civilizations run into one another or not.

New planets around distant stars are being found in increasing amounts. The JPL crowd says it will only be a matter of a few years before an actual Earth-like planet is found. If gases like oxygen and carbon dioxide are found in large amounts, what possible conclusion could we draw?

Edited January 5, 2010 by DogOnPorch

[DogOnPorch]

Re: the Drake Equation.

It might need an overhaul before too long if the rate of new planet discovery doesn't slow down.

[Guest TrueMetis]

Are we Alone? If we are I'll eat myself and some of the borders here.

[Rue]

You assume:

1-aliens did not in fact create us mixing various species to come up with us

2-aliens have not been observing us for millenium

3-aliens are not among us

4-Oleg Bach is not an alien.

People please.