Canadian Political Polls

[nicky10013]

Nanos

November 1 – 5, 2010

CPC: 37.1

LPC: 31.6

NDP: 15.5

GP: 5.2

BQ: 10.8

The poll I posted was put in the field between Nov. 3-9th.

This is also with 12% undecided. Decidedly not good for the government.

Edited November 11, 2010 by nicky10013

[capricorn]

The fact that the Conservatives polled 37% and 29% in 2 polls from different pollsters on overlapping dates is a clear indication that these polls are a waster of time. All these polls provide is fodder for the political chattering classes and material to keep them employed. It has become useless to pay any attention to them outside an election campaign.

[BubberMiley]

It has become useless to pay any attention to them outside an election campaign.

And yet you decided to read this thread.

[William Ashley]

really surprised on this one

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/are-ignatieff-and-layton-getting-itchy-trigger-fingers/article1795389/

Conservatives 29.4

Liberals 28.6

NDP 19.3

Green 10.7

Bloc 9.3

This feels like a massive shift here Conservatives under 30%

With all the "supposed" turmoil in the conservative party at least as being portrayed, is it crumbling?

The poll difference is like 7+ points from the last one I saw a few days ago.. that is a MASSIVE change in only a couple days.

The cabinet changes, and Veterans situations - and some other pretty big things on the move may actually be doing this.

Two groups Veterans and ex-Cons (convicts - and anyone who may be arrested for something - with new prisons being slated..) seem to be two major groups being slated to be effected, and it seems they are getting some negative feedback on that. This is not too long after the issues with Police over the long gun and the extension proposal for afganistan --- CONTRARY to his statements about no military missions in Afghanistan after 2011.

That is pretty negative politics for some very powerful groups in the country.

As well as 3 military procurements each equaling or double the regular annual defence budget.. this being

about 60 Billion of defence procurements planned (although lots of these are long term projects, the numbers are HUGE- most of the money likely going to the USA - and most of the equipment will be used for missions for the USA's global domination objectives) this alongside keeping about 1/6th of the forces in afghanistan, 300 million for a free military base, and foreign operating bases, while canadian bases have been reduced to a bare minimum. Fighting a war overseas does not come cheap - also supplying 1000 trainers does not come cheap, why exactly are they not paying us to train them, or why doesn't the government just hire private contractors to train them and leave the political quagmire at home, it'd probably cost less, heck you could probably trade their services by providing some equipment not being brought home for reduced operating costs. I'm geussing private contractors would be cool with a helicopter or two or some other stuff.

Edited November 12, 2010 by William Ashley

[nicky10013]

New Nik Nanos poll. Not numbers of support, but 2 important issues.

1. Not surprisingly, the PMs message about an evil coalition is absolutely not working.

2. Incredible voter volatility. 1 in 2 Canadians will not vote for who they voted for last election.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/coalition-fear-mongering-falls-on-deaf-ears-poll-finds/article1803937/

[Saipan]

This is also with 12% undecided. Decidedly not good for the government.

Who decided that? Liberals?

[Topaz]

One of the polls said that Harper and Iggy, should step aside because Canadians don't care for them. That's nothing new for the Liberal leader and now, Canadians are saying goodbye to Harper. I think Le Blanc could get the support of the the Liberal party and Canadians but not sure for the Tories. I'm sure Harper would want another reformer to take his place rather than a reformer PC, but who?

[Saipan]

Canadians are saying goodbye to Harper.

CBC and Red Star do. Only elections decide that. Like it did with Dion.

I think Le Blanc could get the support of the the Liberal party and Canadians

They would have to know who Le Blanc is

but not sure for the Tories.

They died with Joe Clark and David Orchard.

[nicky10013]

One of the polls said that Harper and Iggy, should step aside because Canadians don't care for them. That's nothing new for the Liberal leader and now, Canadians are saying goodbye to Harper. I think Le Blanc could get the support of the the Liberal party and Canadians but not sure for the Tories. I'm sure Harper would want another reformer to take his place rather than a reformer PC, but who?

I honestly don't think you can put the same light on the Opposition Leader as you do the PM. Ignatieff, compared to Harper gets next to no press. People don't like him now, but then again people don't know him period and I've been saying this since the day he was brought in as leader, there's no possibility of that changing until an election call. Lest we forget, Harper and Chretien were just as unpopular going into their elections. How many elections did Harper actually lose before coming PM?

Even if this wasn't the case, nothing is going to change the fact that Ignatieff will be leading the LPC into the next election. If he ends up losing seats, he'll be turfed. If he wins only a couple seats, he'll be turfed. Is there a possibility he can hang on if he wins a whack of seats but not government? Sure, though not guaranteed.

We can debate of who may be a better leader but if the Liberals change leaders know, it sets everything back by at least a year. If the caucus ousts Ignatieff, the stories for months on end will be how badly divided the caucus is, the infighting, the intrigue, the disorganization etc. etc. etc.

As for someone to replace Harper, there's really honestly no one that isn't crazy and the old PCers are deserting the party.

Edited November 18, 2010 by nicky10013

[Saipan]

How many elections did Harper actually lose before coming PM?

Non.

Unlike Layton who lost all.

[punked]

Non.

Unlike Layton who lost all.

Ummm he lost to Paul Martin there big guy. Thanks for proving you know nothing.

[Shakeyhands]

Ummm he lost to Paul Martin there big guy. Thanks for proving you know nothing.

He answered 'en francais' though Nicky, points for that... errrrrrr....

[Saipan]

Ummm he lost to Paul Martin there big guy. Thanks for proving you know nothing.

When was Paul Martin elected??

[nicky10013]

When was Paul Martin elected??

Really?

[Shakeyhands]

When was Paul Martin elected??

Ummmmm.... Let me help you out here Saipan.

Waaaaaay back in '04

Edited November 19, 2010 by Shakeyhands

[Saipan]

Ummmmm.... Let me help you out here Saipan.

Waaaaaay back in '04

Thanks!

I didn't know Paul Martin was elected Prime Minister in 2004.

Edited November 19, 2010 by Saipan

[Smallc]

Thanks!

I didn't know Paul Martin was elected Prime Minister in 2004.

No ones is ever elected prime minister. Paul Martin was elected though, many times....including 2004.

Edited November 20, 2010 by Smallc

[Jack Weber]

No ones is ever elected Prime Minister. Paul Martin was elected though, many times....including 2004.

It so much fun arguing the Canadian electoral process with someone who does'nt understand the Canadian electoral process,is'nt it?

[Smallc]

It so much fun arguing the Canadian electoral process with someone who does'nt understand the Canadian electoral process,is'nt it?

There is no more fun to be had.

[Keepitsimple]

Latest Nanos Poll (Nove. 29 - Dec. 2nd):

Conservatives 38.1%

Liberals 31.2

NDP 17.2

Bloc 10.2

Green 3.2

Minutiae: Conservatives significantly up in BC but down in the Prairies. Tories have big leads in every region except Quebec. Greens have all but disappeared.

Link: http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/01052/Nanos_Research_pol_1052449a.pdf

Edited December 8, 2010 by Keepitsimple

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Latest Nanos Poll (Nove. 29 - Dec. 2nd):

Conservatives 38.1%

Liberals 31.2

NDP 17.2

Bloc 10.2

Green 3.2

Minutiae: Conservatives significantly up in BC but down in the Prairies. Tories have big leads in every region except Quebec. Greens have all but disappeared.

Link: http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/01052/Nanos_Research_pol_1052449a.pdf

I don't think any of that is a good thing.............

[eyeball]

Minutiae: Conservatives significantly up in BC

Well that sucks. I feel like I should apologize or something.

[Dave_ON]

Latest Nanos Poll (Nove. 29 - Dec. 2nd):

Minutiae: Conservatives significantly up in BC but down in the Prairies. Tories have big leads in every region except Quebec. Greens have all but disappeared.

Link: http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/01052/Nanos_Research_pol_1052449a.pdf

Margin of error on this one is quite high, overall 3.6% and the regional breakdown is worse, with all regions other than BC and Prairies the lead does not exceed the margin for error. I also find it hard to believe that the LPC has 33.6% support in the Prairies. I'm thinking this is an outlier, but we'll have to see if the trend continues after Christmas.

[Dave_ON]

Latest Harris Decima

CPC 31%

LPC 29%

NDP 15%

GREEN 11%

No National number for the BLOC however they are in the same general area in Quebec at 44%

Margin for Error is 2.2%

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/federal-tories-liberals-locked-in-statistical-tie-poll-suggests-111935134.html?viewAllComments=y