Canadian Political Polls

[Jack Weber]

Whoops, my bad. From the crap I hear on all of 640, 680, 1010, they're all the same. Furthermore, the headline is exactly what makes this article sound like he's begging.

But I've been told here(mostly by con bedwetters,mind you) that the media is biased to the left,yet here you are telling us that there is actually quite alot of conservative talk radio in "(L)liberal" Toronto???

Interesting...

[Jack Weber]

Harper and Layton one one side...Ignatieff and the police on the other?

Oh, Iggy, Iggy.

Mr.Spock...The Authoritarian!!!!

[nicky10013]

But I've been told here(mostly by con bedwetters,mind you) that the media is biased to the left,yet here you are telling us that there is actually quite alot of conservative talk radio in "(L)liberal" Toronto???

Interesting...

Yup. Of the 4 major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election 3 endorsed Stephen Harper while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC despite whatever troubles that have befallen the party. Interesting indeed.

[Michael Hardner]

EKOS Poll

A new poll suggests the federal Conservatives have a small lead over the Liberals, weeks after the two parties were virtually tied in public support.

According to the latest results from EKOS, released exclusively to CBC News, 32.4 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Tories if an election were held today, compared with 28.9 per cent for the Liberals. However, the spread is very close to the survey's margin of error.

Read more: http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/15/ekos-poll.html#ixzz0zhy6pRNS

32.4 to 28.9 per cent isn't enough of a lead to call an election anytime soon.

[M.Dancer]

Yup. Of the 4 major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election 3 endorsed Stephen Harper while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC despite whatever troubles that have befallen the party. Interesting indeed.

So what you are saying if I understand correctly, of the 4 major dailies, 5 have made endorsements...

[nicky10013]

So what you are saying if I understand correctly, of the 4 major dailies, 5 have made endorsements...

2 of the 3 that have made endorsements. I would expect you'd have the comprehension skills to figure that out. Suppose not.

[M.Dancer]

Yup. Of the 4 major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election 3 endorsed Stephen Harper while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC despite whatever troubles that have befallen the party. Interesting indeed.

Toronto Star endorse Dion

The Globe and Mail's Lukewarm endorsement of Harper

National Post endorses Harper

....and a story no longer available, Sun Media endorses harper

....can't find the fifth...

[M.Dancer]

Yup. Of the 4 major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election 3 endorsed Stephen Harper

....while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC despite whatever troubles that have befallen the party. Interesting indeed.

I don't think it is my comprehension that is failing, it is your writing...

of the 4 dailies, you write...

2 are "rabidly pro-CPC" while "3 endorsed Stephen Harper"

2 of the 3 that have made endorsements. I would expect you'd have the comprehension skills to figure that out. Suppose not.

What? so instead of 4 papers (or 5?) now it is only 2 out of 3? I'm sure you said something different...Please make up your mind...

Toronto Star endorse Dion

The Globe and Mail's Lukewarm endorsement of Harper

National Post endorses Harper

....and a story no longer available, Sun Media endorses harper

....can't find the fifth...

4 endorsements, 3 for Harper, one for Dion.

[nicky10013]

I don't think it is my comprehension that is failing, it is your writing...

of the 4 dailies, you write...

2 are "rabidly pro-CPC" while "3 endorsed Stephen Harper"

What? so instead of 4 papers (or 5?) now it is only 2 out of 3? I'm sure you said something different...Please make up your mind...

4 endorsements, 3 for Harper, one for Dion.

Are you only driven by semantics? You know very well what I mean. If you actually don't, then you're actually far more stupid than I thought. Which is something because I never thought you were particularly smart to begin with.

[M.Dancer]

Are you only driven by semantics? You know very well what I mean. If you actually don't, then you're actually far more stupid than I thought. Which is something because I never thought you were particularly smart to begin with.

Interesting logic...I'm stupid because you can't express yourself clearly. And for the record, your posts incoherence can't be pinned on semantics...have a look.

Of the 4 major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election 3 endorsed Stephen Harper while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC

[nicky10013]

Interesting logic...I'm stupid because you can't express yourself clearly. And for the record, your posts incoherence can't be pinned on semantics...have a look.

Sure it is. You're the only one who obviuosly doesn't know that the 2 were originally part of the original 4.

[Pliny]

Yup. Of the 4 major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election 3 endorsed Stephen Harper while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC despite whatever troubles that have befallen the party. Interesting indeed.

I think a little clarity will settle the argument with Dancer.

To make it clear you should have written:

"Of the four major daily newspapers in Toronto, in the last election, 3 endorsed Stephen Harper, two of those three, have been rabidly pro-CPC despite whatever troubles that have befallen the party."

Saying,"....3 endorsed Stephen Harper while 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC...." suggests there were 5 newspapers.

You are using "while" as a conjunction and in context the meaning that applies is "whereas", "and".

You could have said, "...while 2 of those three..." being more specific.

The way you expressed it left it open to mean that, "...3 endorsed Harper while {whereas, and) 2 have been rabidly pro-CPC...". 3+2=5.

[LastViking]

TrendLines Research gives Harper a 120-114 seat projection lead over Ignatieff, had a writ been dropped in early September. And when this result is averaged with the seven other models, their riding projection chart shows the Conservatives have a 127-95 lead over the Liberal Party.

Off topic - they also reveal Canadian home prices have dropped $1,600/week since May & Canada was on verge of double-dip Recession in August.

Edited September 30, 2010 by LastViking

[Dave_ON]

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/29/ekos-voter-intention-poll.html

Latest EKOS poll

CPC 33.1

LPC 29.9

NDP 13.5

Green 10.9

BLOC 10.1

Other 2.5

Margin of error is 2.1%

Also noted in the article is this interesting tidbit.

In a separate EKOS survey, respondents were also asked whether they would prefer a Conservative government led by Stephen Harper or a coalition government made up of Liberals and New Democrats and led by Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff.

Forty-one per cent of respondents said they would prefer an Ignatieff-led coalition, while 39 per cent said they preferred a Harper-led Conservative government.

Also

Twenty-six per cent said they wanted a majority Conservative government, while 22 per cent said they preferred a Liberal majority government.

[Keepitsimple]

http://www.cbc.ca/politics/story/2010/09/29/ekos-voter-intention-poll.html

Also noted in the article is this interesting tidbit.

Par for the course that the CBC's "Coalition Question" had no mention of the Bloc.

[nicky10013]

Par for the course that the CBC's "Coalition Question" had no mention of the Bloc.

Maybe because in the original coalition no bloc members would be sitting in the cabinet. Not unlike this attempt.

UH-OH!

September 9, 2004

Her Excellency the Right Honourable Adrienne Clarkson,

C.C., C.M.M., C.O.M., C.D.

Governor General

Rideau Hall

1 Sussex Drive

Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0A1

Excellency,

As leaders of the opposition parties, we are well aware that, given the Liberal minority government, you could be asked by the Prime Minister to dissolve the 38th Parliament at any time should the House of Commons fail to support some part of the government's program.

We respectfully point out that the opposition parties, who together constitute a majority in the House, have been in close consultation. We believe that, should a request for dissolution arise this should give you cause, as constitutional practice

has determined, to consult the opposition leaders and consider all of your options before exercising your constitutional authority.

Your attention to this matter is appreciated.

Sincerely,

Hon. Stephen Harper, P.C., M.P.

Leader of the Opposition

Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada

Gilles Duceppe, M.P.

Leader of the Bloc Quebecois

Jack Layton, M.P.

Leader of the New Democratic Party

[Dave_ON]

Par for the course that the CBC's "Coalition Question" had no mention of the Bloc.

I think it demonstrates the point that Canadians aren't as opposed to the idea of a coalition as many would have us believe. After all given our current political situation, I think people would rather a coalition than term after term of successive minority parliaments.

[Wild Bill]

I think it demonstrates the point that Canadians aren't as opposed to the idea of a coalition as many would have us believe. After all given our current political situation, I think people would rather a coalition than term after term of successive minority parliaments.

I don't agree, Dave. Still, you could be right! It would be fascinating if the conditions turned out right next election and we had a chance to see your premise tested!

After all, there's little risk to us as citizens. A coalition would likely not get a chance to seriously damage the country. However, if I'm right it could serious damage its component members! All the risk would be on the politicians. We citizens could enjoy the entertainment!

[ToadBrother]

I think it demonstrates the point that Canadians aren't as opposed to the idea of a coalition as many would have us believe. After all given our current political situation, I think people would rather a coalition than term after term of successive minority parliaments.

It was noted in many places after the formation of the Conservative-LibDem coalition in the UK that it was going to make Harper's arguments harder, seeing as a Parliament, that for the most part, works almost the same as ours, just got one of those kinds of governments.

[Wild Bill]

It was noted in many places after the formation of the Conservative-LibDem coalition in the UK that it was going to make Harper's arguments harder, seeing as a Parliament, that for the most part, works almost the same as ours, just got one of those kinds of governments.

As I said to Dave, TB, it would be great fun to have the premise tested! I wonder if Ignatieff shares your confidence in the lack of risk, however.

[punked]

New AR poll.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,008 Canadian adults, 34 per cent of respondents (+1 since August) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The Liberal Party is second with 26 per cent (-3), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent (-1), the Green Party with 11 per cent (+2), and the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (=).

http://www.visioncritical.com/blog/conservatives-lead-by-eight-points-in-canada-as-greens-gain/

Seems about right for this time of year.

[ToadBrother]

As I said to Dave, TB, it would be great fun to have the premise tested! I wonder if Ignatieff shares your confidence in the lack of risk, however.

I didn't say it was without risk. Even in the UK situation, what seems to be happening is that the LibDem's, as the junior partner, are seeing their support fall. That's one form of risk for the NDP, which occupy similar political ground in Canada.

I imagine risk plays a part in Iggy's general opinions about a coalition; not just risks of the electorate rejecting the Liberals over it, but of the unity of his own party. I also think Iggy wants to be PM of a majority government, and if an election is imminent, no sane party leader goes into it saying "when we fail to achieve a win, we'll hop into bed with those guys and form a government."

As I said, even if his secret strategy is to create some sort of a coalition, as the Tories seem to be saying, it could damage Liberal electoral results if he comes out and says it. First of all, maybe he could achieve a majority, even a slim one, and wouldn't need to be kissy-kissy to Layton and Duceppe, but if that fails, he still might be able to convince voters to put more Liberals in Parliament, and each one on the Grit side and not on the Bloc or NDP side makes the Liberals' potential position as senior member of a coalition that much stronger.

[Dave_ON]

New AR poll.

http://www.visioncritical.com/blog/conservatives-lead-by-eight-points-in-canada-as-greens-gain/

Seems about right for this time of year.

I see the sample size but am I missing the margin of error? I didn't see that listed. It seems that 11% is a little on the high side for the Greens especially from AR.

[Keepitsimple]

I don't recall the CROP poll that is referenced but here is an article from today's Globe and Mail - as little as that might mean, it looks like the Conservatives might be doing a little better in Quebec than people thought:

The future of the federal Liberal Party in Quebec, meanwhile, is not promising. According to a recent CROP survey, the Conservatives have regained ground. The rate of dissatisfaction with the Harper government has gone down to 50 per cent, from 65 per cent a year and a half ago. And even though the Liberals’ share of the popular vote is equal to that of the Conservatives, at 23 per cent, this is a deceptive figure since the Liberal support is concentrated, and thus “lost” in the anglophone ridings of the metropolitan area. In any case, the Bloc Québécois has such a tight grip on the province, especially in the vote-rich francophone areas outside Montreal, that all the Liberals or the Conservatives can hope for is to become the “first” minor party in Quebec.

Link: http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/the-liberal-life-and-times-of-denis-coderre/article1738919/

[capricorn]

Canadians believe the Conservative party is most in tune with the values and needs of today's families, according to the results of a poll conducted exclusively for Postmedia News and Global TV.

Just over one-third of Canadians (35 per cent) favour Prime Minister Stephen Harper's party when it comes to family issues, while nearly three in 10 (27 per cent) believe Jack Layton's NDP is the most family-friendly. Just two in 10 (19 per cent) vouch for the Liberals as led by Michael Ignatieff when it comes to family issues.

"What was . . . more instructive out of this poll was not so much the Tories themselves and how they've been able to capture that vote, but the utter loss of the Liberal party to come anywhere close," says John Wright, senior vice-president with Ipsos Reid. "I think the Liberal party would be a little shocked to see that they've lost or haven't got a key constituency."

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Tories+most+tune+with+families+Poll/3646752/story.html#ixzz11pRQ7cdj

Maybe the genius of the Liberal $1B yearly home care plan proposal hasn't sunk into the Canadian psyche yet. On the other hand, maybe families in general don't see a particular advantage to the newest Liberal policy plank. Whatever. At least the Liberals are differentiating themselves from the Conservatives by taking a hard left turn that is sure to appeal to some NDP and Bloc swing voters.