Canadian Political Polls

punked · July 18, 2009

You made a deduction here.

We will have to wait for more polls to see if the Liberals keep showing really weak numbers outside of Ontario and Quebec I guess.

benny · July 18, 2009

We will have to wait for more polls to see if the Liberals keep showing really weak numbers outside of Ontario and Quebec I guess.

Politics is not a waiting game.

punked · July 18, 2009

Politics is not a waiting game.

In the summer it is.

benny · July 18, 2009

In the summer it is.

Garden party politics is for summer time.

Dave_ON · July 23, 2009

Interesting new EKOS poll

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/07/22/...inority022.html

The CPC and the LPC are still in an statistical deadlock margin for error is 1.7%.

The Conservatives eked out the top spot at 32.8 per cent, with the Liberals hot on their heels at 32.5 per cent, according to the poll. The NDP were third at 14.8 per cent, the Greens fourth at 11.5 per cent and the Bloc Québécois at 8.4 per cent.

Also I find this portion to be quite intersting

When asked which party would be their second choice if a federal election was held tomorrow, the Liberal party emerged on top at 22.1 per cent, with the NDP in second place at 19.7 per cent.
The Green party was third at 14.1 per cent and the Conservative party was next with 13.2 per cent. The BQ had 4.1 per cent.

However, 26.8 per cent of those polled said they had no second choice.

madmax · July 23, 2009

Interesting new EKOS poll
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/07/22/...inority022.html

That poll is so indifferent, so utterly useless, so boring, .... I wonder why someone bothered to release it.

Jerry J. Fortin · July 23, 2009

Interesting new EKOS poll
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/07/22/...inority022.html

The CPC and the LPC are still in an statistical deadlock margin for error is 1.7%.

Also I find this portion to be quite intersting

It seems that as a whole the people desire a government that can actually do something. I guess that means the possibility of a majority will put some fires in political bellies.

punked · July 23, 2009

Interesting new EKOS poll
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2009/07/22/...inority022.html

I am Tired of this push poll already

Dave_ON · July 23, 2009

I am Tired of this push poll already

With the NDP at 14.8% of course you are, they continue their downward trend. In spite of all your protestations the LPC and the CPC have remained about the same.

madmax · July 23, 2009

With the NDP at 14.8% of course you are, they continue their downward trend. In spite of all your protestations the LPC and the CPC have remained about the same.

The CPC and LPC are deadlocked within the margins of error, no one has the lead. The NDP have held their traditional ground within the margin of error. There is no downward trend.

However, what has happened is the LPC have rebounded from the Dion Debacle and then stall completely, putting them a hair lower then their tradition levels of support, but nothing to be concerned about in the offseason.

The CPC can't get a leg up, because Harper can't get his foot out of his mouth.

Wild Bill · July 23, 2009

The CPC and LPC are deadlocked within the margins of error, no one has the lead. The NDP have held their traditional ground within the margin of error. There is no downward trend.
However, what has happened is the LPC have rebounded from the Dion Debacle and then stall completely, putting them a hair lower then their tradition levels of support, but nothing to be concerned about in the offseason.

The CPC can't get a leg up, because Harper can't get his foot out of his mouth.

Folks shouldn't get too anal about polls without considering that ALWAYS when an election is actually called the incumbent party sees at least a 5% upward bump!

I'm not sure why that is. Perhaps someone who actually works with polling companies can tell us. It may be that between elections people aren't paying close attention and tend to more easily talk about making a switch. Before an election it's easy to become dissatisfied with some things about the ruling party. After the writ is dropped they have to consider if an opposition party would be a BETTER choice!

Or maybe there's some more arcane statistical mathematical reason. I don't know why, but I know it's true.

However, it does seem logical that a series of polls over time would indicate trends...

enviralment · July 23, 2009

Maybe the upward bump for the incumbent comes from the group of people who vigilantly vote, but hate having to do so every 14 months.

Iggy has a change in the fall, he just needs to define himself before the Cons rip his tattered image to shreds. Like they did so easily with the uber-malleable Dion.

punked · July 23, 2009

With the NDP at 14.8% of course you are, they continue their downward trend. In spite of all your protestations the LPC and the CPC have remained about the same.

No the poll has a terrible error in it no matter if you like it or not. See the problem is they asked those polled "Liberal, or Conservative majority or minority?" First. This makes those polled believe those really the only two choices then asked who would you vote for. All you have to do is look at the Bloc numbers to see this created an error in the polling. This made people say "Conservative, or Liberal" when really polled. I am not worried about this push poll getting 15% after that sort of push shows we have a real base and room to grow.

Give us 70 seats and we will turn parliament upside down, give us 170 and will turn the country right side up.

Moonbox · July 23, 2009

I think Ignatieff lost his chance to define himself.

It's been about 8 months and we know next to nothing about what he'd do. Canadians, it seems to me, are less interested than before and all the while he's been labelled by the PC in attack ads.

punked · July 23, 2009

Folks shouldn't get too anal about polls without considering that ALWAYS when an election is actually called the incumbent party sees at least a 5% upward bump!
I'm not sure why that is. Perhaps someone who actually works with polling companies can tell us. It may be that between elections people aren't paying close attention and tend to more easily talk about making a switch. Before an election it's easy to become dissatisfied with some things about the ruling party. After the writ is dropped they have to consider if an opposition party would be a BETTER choice!

It is becuase of undecideds their are plenty in your party who lean Libertarian and would like to put the heat on Harper outside of an election but come back during an election and check Conservative anyway. The other problem is the Liberals have most room to grow on left but when they play to their left they lose all the Red Tories out there who bleed to the Conservatives. It will happen again this election.

Moonbox · July 23, 2009

No the poll has a terrible error in it no matter if you like it or not. See the problem is they asked those polled "Liberal, or Conservative majority or minority?" First. This makes those polled believe those really the only two choices then asked who would you vote for. All you have to do is look at the Bloc numbers to see this created an error in the polling. This made people say "Conservative, or Liberal" when really polled. I am not worried about this push poll getting 15% after that sort of push shows we have a real base and room to grow.
Give us 70 seats and we will turn parliament upside down, give us 170 and will turn the country right side up.

If anything this inflates Liberal numbers. NDP and Bloc voters will say Liberal before PC.

No offense btw, but you've had 'a real base and room to grow' for as long as I've been alive and nothing has been done with it. The problem is you need policies that the majority of Canadians would support.

punked · July 23, 2009

No offense btw, but you've had 'a real base and room to grow' for as long as I've been alive and nothing has been done with it. The problem is you need policies that the majority of Canadians would support.

We have had them for a long long time. Seems to me most of the Liberal policies during an election have been the NDP's policies well before. Medicare, Pension Plan, Charter of Rights and freedoms, Living wage, I mean the list goes on and on. The reason we got most of these things BTW was becuase of minority Liberal governments the NDP pushed to enact their stolen NDP promises.

benny · July 23, 2009

We have had them for a long long time. Seems to me most of the Liberal policies during an election have been the NDP's policies well before. Medicare, Pension Plan, Charter of Rights and freedoms, Living wage, I mean the list goes on and on. The reason we got most of these things BTW was becuase of minority Liberal governments the NDP pushed to enact their stolen NDP promises.

The NDP seems glad to be badly copied!

Wild Bill · July 23, 2009

We have had them for a long long time. Seems to me most of the Liberal policies during an election have been the NDP's policies well before. Medicare, Pension Plan, Charter of Rights and freedoms, Living wage, I mean the list goes on and on. The reason we got most of these things BTW was becuase of minority Liberal governments the NDP pushed to enact their stolen NDP promises.

I'm not sure if that's the true reason, Mr. P!

I was around for most of those policies being enacted. I don't remember the Liberals stealing them because they were so widely popular. Rather, I remember minority governments where the NDP controlled the balance of power. The Liberals had no choice but to implement something the NDP wanted or have their government fall. I don't remember being given the choice as a voter! I don't remember the Liberals stealing an NDP idea and campaigning on it.

In short, the Liberals enacted those ideas to keep the NDP happy, not to keep a majority of Canadians happy.

Over the years it has seemed to me that the federal NDP steadfastly refuses to modernize! Remember how Tony Blair re-invented the Labour party in Britain? The NDP here always sounds like its 1965! They always call for more union rights during times when companies are going bankrupt in droves. If you ask them why they tell you that the companies are just doing it because they're rightwing pricks! They're going bankrupt for the sheer evil fun of shafting the union man!

They've done this to such a degree that if you asked people in the street who the NDP represents, they will almost all tell you it is the union man and the people on welfare. The NPD never seems to consider that by working so hard to attract that demographic the converse also applies, that if you're not on welfare or in a union then the NDP is not for you!

You might be familiar with the Laxer Report from the 1980's. If not, you really should google it. Don't ask around in NDP circles 'cuz it's probably been banned! Laxer was part of the NDP commissioned to write a report for his own party as to why they didn't seem to connect with sufficient numbers of Canadians to win elections. Among other things, he warned them that they were in danger of becoming dinosaurs.

The federal NDP has a perception out there of being impractical, of running on blue sky dreams and not day to day realities. If there was a leak in the lifeboat it would be the NDP forming committees on whether or not the job of bailer had been too gender-specific, while the water slowly rose inside the boat.

I'm not arguing if this perception is fair or not, just that it's held by large numbers of possible voters. If the NDP wants to attract votes from outside their own choir they need to address this perception head on. Historically, they never seem to do this. When challenged over how one of their goals could work they never give practical details. Instead, they attack the questioner for being mean-spirited for posing the question!

They always seem to be leading with their heart rather than their head. Me, sometimes I like them better for it than folks who work the other way around but still, most people learn early in life that Mother Nature doesn't care about your heart. Her Universe works by laws and you have to follow them if you want anything to function properly.

ToadBrother · July 23, 2009

I think Ignatieff lost his chance to define himself.
It's been about 8 months and we know next to nothing about what he'd do. Canadians, it seems to me, are less interested than before and all the while he's been labelled by the PC in attack ads.

And I'd say Iggy has defined himself. He's defined himself as the guy who basically can tell Harper what to do. We have two Prime Ministers right now, one who has the keys to the car, and the other that has the steering wheel.

benny · July 23, 2009

And I'd say Iggy has defined himself. He's defined himself as the guy who basically can tell Harper what to do. We have two Prime Ministers right now, one who has the keys to the car, and the other that has the steering wheel.

I see no problem with such complement, because governments like cars can be deadly.

sgarrydemocracyparty · July 25, 2009

I don't know about polls. There are so many of them, they exhaust me, especially during elections.

I'd be interested to know what you think of my "Poll Day" idea:

Poll Day - Video Blog

Essentially, it's about cutting off polls one week before Election Day so everybody gets a break.

Note: This video's 14 minutes long, too long for YouTube. Where possible, I post to both on my video blog and YouTube because not everybody has the right codec to view the video within the blog. However, the video "transcript" (if you don't want to watch the video) is only on the blog page, not YouTube.

Edited July 25, 2009 by sgarrydemocracyparty

benny · July 25, 2009

Essentially, it's about cutting off polls one week before Election Day so everybody gets a break.

You will be accused of searching to limit freedom of information. Perhaps it can be done but only by invoking a superior imperative.

Edited July 25, 2009 by benny

sgarrydemocracyparty · July 25, 2009

You will be accused of searching to limit freedom of information. Perhaps it can be done but only by invoking a superior imperative.

The material declares such an imperative, and argues the logic vs. precedents (ie. by Supreme Court).

Poll Day - Video Blog

Also, there's "give" as well as "take" in this idea. I proposed, as a compromise, campaigns be lengthened by the same amount – ie. add 5-7 days at the beginning. (Of course, I think campaigns should be longer, anyway. These guys have made them shorter and shorter in their effort to minimize their exposure in front of Canadian voters!)

Remember, the greater the complaints the greater my personal suspicion of the power that someone, in power, is trying to protect. Whatever we try to do at the democratic reform level is going to elicit criticism from some pretty powerful, intrenched interests, including those who claim to "watch out for us".

I "do" trust Canadians, but can any of us honestly say we've not been influenced by "day of" polls (or "day before")? Essentially the same science (renamed "marketing") is used to convince us to buy this product vs. that one, so it's a concern.

It's not a "policy" of this Party, but it's something I'd throw out there for discussion -- and let Canadians decide. Even if it ruffles the feathers of the CBC, CTV, Global, Star, Nikos, Ekos, whatever, whatever. It'd be a good test of direct democracy vs. the "powers".

If it turned out to be even just 4 days vs. 7, that'd be an improvement, for me. The remaining days of the campaign -- imagine it -- would just be between politicians and voters.

Wow! Democracy!

PS. Well after I made this video, in reading my "letters to the editor", someone came up with a very similar idea! Of course, maybe they got it off my video blog!

Edited July 25, 2009 by sgarrydemocracyparty

benny · July 25, 2009

can any of us honestly say we've not been influenced by "day of" polls (or "day before")? Essentially the same science (renamed "marketing") is used to convince us to buy this product vs. that one, so it's a concern.

Preventing undue influence is indeed, I think, a good reason to put restrictions on media polls publication. To understand why, one has however to understand that democracy is fundamentally a dividing process, not a unifying process. Poll results convey democratically-worthy information only if voters know the importance of voting strategically. Polls done to help existing political parties to gather enough voters behind them should remain a private matter.