Canadian Political Polls

[benny]

I have no clue what you are talking about.

When you say "the Bloc has a base of 30 seats those won't be going anywhere" you should be more respectful and say the truth: that there is 30 regions in Quebec that want to part company from Canada.

[punked]

When you say "the Bloc has a base of 30 seats those won't be going anywhere" you should be more respectful and say the truth: that there is 30 regions in Quebec that want to part company from Canada.

That maybe true however it might just be that there is 30 regions of Quebec who like that the Bloc gets them per capita the most from the federal government then any other province.

[ToadBrother]

When you say "the Bloc has a base of 30 seats those won't be going anywhere" you should be more respectful and say the truth: that there is 30 regions in Quebec that want to part company from Canada.

You have no idea if that's true or not. There could be a lot of soft separatists there, or maybe even federalists who think the Bloc does a better job of representing their interests.

[benny]

That maybe true however it might just be that there is 30 regions of Quebec who like that the Bloc gets them per capita the most from the federal government then any other province.

The Bloc is not the Parti Québécois.

[Smallc]

There are a lot of people who vote for separation in a poll that would never vote for it in an actual election. There is no consequence to a poll and the people are completely anonymous.

[benny]

There are a lot of people who vote for separation in a poll that would never vote for it in an actual election. There is no consequence to a poll and the people are completely anonymous.

In the past, the polls on Quebec independence have not overshot the two referendums results.

[punked]

The Bloc is not the Parti Québécois.

Funny because it's current leaders father founded the Parti Québécois. Like it or not the Bloc has done well for its people.

[benny]

Funny because it's current leaders father founded the Parti Québécois. Like it or not the Bloc has done well for its people.

The Bloc without the Parti Québécois looming would have been a non-credible and therefore phony threat.

[Keepitsimple]

There was a chance for something to happen when it seemed that Duceppe was going to retire. I think that will be the next federalist opportunity but it seems that Duceppe has caught a second wind. I think a lot hinges on the next BLOC leader as to whether the BLOC is a 25 seat party or a 50 seat party.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

There was a chance for something to happen when it seemed that Duceppe was going to retire. I think that will be the next federalist opportunity but it seems that Duceppe has caught a second wind. I think a lot hinges on the next BLOC leader as to whether the BLOC is a 25 seat party or a 50 seat party.

It depends where federal politics go. The BLOC is about ideology, and the current trend is economics, not a strong suit for the BLOC.

[benny]

It depends where federal politics go. The BLOC is about ideology, and the current trend is economics, not a strong suit for the BLOC.

The Bloc is about Quebec's development (economic and everything).

[Dave_ON]

I live in the present not the past. Look at the numbers, an NDP government is just as possible as a Liberal majority with 40 Quebec seats out of play becuase of the Bloc and the Conservatives united the Liberals can't go over the top. If are claiming becuase in the past, when their was no Bloc or a Split Conservative party, the Liberals did it means they can do it today then you are really out of touch with Canadian politics. Majorities are a thing of the past for now too many parties with large bases.

Tell me where do you see the Liberals best case making those 155 seats. You can't becuase the numbers simply aren't there. Don't worry though they aren't there for the Conservatives either.

Since you live in the present and are so very in touch with Canadian politics you are well aware that elections are won and lost in Quebec and Ontario, having BC in your pocket doesn't hurt either. You continuously tell us all that the Bloc has a base 40 seats and the NDP have a base 30. Fine let's look at the Liberal base number as well as the Conservative Base numbers. It's not out of the realm of reason to say that both have a solid 105 seat base. Keeping in mind that the current seat counts for the liberals is highly anomalous given their historical showings. This of course contributed to both the NDP's and Bloc's Spike in seats.

So both parties have a base of about 105 seats that means they need to only make up 50 seats as compared to the NDP who would need to make up 125 seats. I ask you is it as likely that the NDP will make up 125 seats as it is that either the Liberals or the CPC will make up 50? Let's take it even a step further. Is it at all likely that the NDP would be able to take enough seats from the conservatives and the liberals to exceed the 105 seat mark; is it possible for them to close a 75 seat gap?

Now let’s look at the LPC and the CPC. Both have their “write off” regions. For the LPC this is the Prairies, for the CPC this is Quebec and most of urban Ontario. If these parties would stop trying to break into each other strongholds and focus on the contested regions there would be a much better showing. The LPC’s should focus on Ontario, Quebec and BC; these are their best bet to win seats. If you throw in the Atlantic Provinces which are currently turning red they can close the 50 seat gap easily. Now as it stand the CPC have a lot more handicaps that will likely result in a decrease in their seat count next election. Some are their fault some are not. Namely the Arts Funding cuts really hurt them last election and is likely to be unrecoverable so long as Mr. Harper is at the helm. There is also the terrible economic showing this year, rising unemployment and the fact that they’ve been incumbent since 2006, all detriments that are not at all their fault.

I think to state that majorities are a thing of the past is largely hyperbole. There are many factors that have contributed to our current political situation. Those factors are changing and this temporary minority rut that we’re in will pass. Will it be next election? Likely not, or even the election after that, but what we have seen is a trend towards the historical pendulum stability of the past. Honestly Canada needs a strong majority government with an equally strong opposition; this is how our government functions best. The Liberal/Conservative cycle of government is what has made our Country what it is today.

[ToadBrother]

I think to state that majorities are a thing of the past is largely hyperbole. There are many factors that have contributed to our current political situation. Those factors are changing and this temporary minority rut that we’re in will pass. Will it be next election? Likely not, or even the election after that, but what we have seen is a trend towards the historical pendulum stability of the past. Honestly Canada needs a strong majority government with an equally strong opposition; this is how our government functions best. The Liberal/Conservative cycle of government is what has made our Country what it is today.

I tend to agree with this assessment. Other countries, like Germany and Israel, have long histories of coalition-building to form governments. In the Westminster system actual bonafide coalitions, which offer at least some more stability than minority government alone, are rather rare. It's simply not in the DNA of our political system. Look what happened when the Liberals, NDP and Bloc tried to form one, members of their own parties (or at least the Liberal party) acted like they were being forced to drink motor oil.

We've had moments of instability before, but they've passed. This one will too.

[benny]

Since you live in the present and are so very in touch with Canadian politics you are well aware that elections are won and lost in Quebec and Ontario, having BC in your pocket doesn't hurt either. You continuously tell us all that the Bloc has a base 40 seats and the NDP have a base 30. Fine let's look at the Liberal base number as well as the Conservative Base numbers. It's not out of the realm of reason to say that both have a solid 105 seat base. Keeping in mind that the current seat counts for the liberals is highly anomalous given their historical showings. This of course contributed to both the NDP's and Bloc's Spike in seats.

So both parties have a base of about 105 seats that means they need to only make up 50 seats as compared to the NDP who would need to make up 125 seats. I ask you is it as likely that the NDP will make up 125 seats as it is that either the Liberals or the CPC will make up 50? Let's take it even a step further. Is it at all likely that the NDP would be able to take enough seats from the conservatives and the liberals to exceed the 105 seat mark; is it possible for them to close a 75 seat gap?

Now let’s look at the LPC and the CPC. Both have their “write off” regions. For the LPC this is the Prairies, for the CPC this is Quebec and most of urban Ontario. If these parties would stop trying to break into each other strongholds and focus on the contested regions there would be a much better showing. The LPC’s should focus on Ontario, Quebec and BC; these are their best bet to win seats. If you throw in the Atlantic Provinces which are currently turning red they can close the 50 seat gap easily. Now as it stand the CPC have a lot more handicaps that will likely result in a decrease in their seat count next election. Some are their fault some are not. Namely the Arts Funding cuts really hurt them last election and is likely to be unrecoverable so long as Mr. Harper is at the helm. There is also the terrible economic showing this year, rising unemployment and the fact that they’ve been incumbent since 2006, all detriments that are not at all their fault.

I think to state that majorities are a thing of the past is largely hyperbole. There are many factors that have contributed to our current political situation. Those factors are changing and this temporary minority rut that we’re in will pass. Will it be next election? Likely not, or even the election after that, but what we have seen is a trend towards the historical pendulum stability of the past. Honestly Canada needs a strong majority government with an equally strong opposition; this is how our government functions best. The Liberal/Conservative cycle of government is what has made our Country what it is today.

What is marvelous about democracy is also what make your post horrendous: in democracy yes you will see political parties obviously, rationaly "focusing on the contested regions" and this focusing is also precisely what makes a country stronger through its instability i.e. its extreme divisions.

Edited July 15, 2009 by benny

[Jerry J. Fortin]

The deal is simple, carry Ontario and Quebec you get a majority. Ontario alone yields a minority.

[Dave_ON]

The deal is simple, carry Ontario and Quebec you get a majority. Ontario alone yields a minority.

Precisely, and if you can manage a good chunk of BC all the better. The lesson that the CPC learned was the West alone lands you in opposition.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Precisely, and if you can manage a good chunk of BC all the better. The lesson that the CPC learned was the West alone lands you in opposition.

I am willing to wager the CPC will actually lose seats in the west next time around, say something like 8-10 seats. Quebec is almost a writeoff for them, figure the loss of another 10 seats there. Ontario will likely shed CPC seats as well. Atlantic Canada will likely retain its few CPC seats.

[punked]

Since you live in the present and are so very in touch with Canadian politics you are well aware that elections are won and lost in Quebec and Ontario, having BC in your pocket doesn't hurt either. You continuously tell us all that the Bloc has a base 40 seats and the NDP have a base 30. Fine let's look at the Liberal base number as well as the Conservative Base numbers. It's not out of the realm of reason to say that both have a solid 105 seat base. Keeping in mind that the current seat counts for the liberals is highly anomalous given their historical showings. This of course contributed to both the NDP's and Bloc's Spike in seats.

So both parties have a base of about 105 seats that means they need to only make up 50 seats as compared to the NDP who would need to make up 125 seats. I ask you is it as likely that the NDP will make up 125 seats as it is that either the Liberals or the CPC will make up 50? Let's take it even a step further. Is it at all likely that the NDP would be able to take enough seats from the conservatives and the liberals to exceed the 105 seat mark; is it possible for them to close a 75 seat gap?

Now let’s look at the LPC and the CPC. Both have their “write off” regions. For the LPC this is the Prairies, for the CPC this is Quebec and most of urban Ontario. If these parties would stop trying to break into each other strongholds and focus on the contested regions there would be a much better showing. The LPC’s should focus on Ontario, Quebec and BC; these are their best bet to win seats. If you throw in the Atlantic Provinces which are currently turning red they can close the 50 seat gap easily. Now as it stand the CPC have a lot more handicaps that will likely result in a decrease in their seat count next election. Some are their fault some are not. Namely the Arts Funding cuts really hurt them last election and is likely to be unrecoverable so long as Mr. Harper is at the helm. There is also the terrible economic showing this year, rising unemployment and the fact that they’ve been incumbent since 2006, all detriments that are not at all their fault.

I think to state that majorities are a thing of the past is largely hyperbole. There are many factors that have contributed to our current political situation. Those factors are changing and this temporary minority rut that we’re in will pass. Will it be next election? Likely not, or even the election after that, but what we have seen is a trend towards the historical pendulum stability of the past. Honestly Canada needs a strong majority government with an equally strong opposition; this is how our government functions best. The Liberal/Conservative cycle of government is what has made our Country what it is today.

See I love this post because it makes no sense. Look at your bases.

Liberals:105

Cons:105

PQ:40

NDP:30

Meaning there is is 20 seats left to win so even if the Liberals win them all they are still not in a majority. I never Said the NDP has a chance at a Majority I said the chance of any majority is the same as the NDP forming a government. Which is close to 0 your numbers prove this. Majorities aren't a thing anymore and the parties need to get use to that. This was a push to suggest anyone has a shot at a majority.

[Dave_ON]

See I love this post because it makes no sense. Look at your bases.

Liberals:105

Cons:105

PQ:40

NDP:30

Meaning there is is 20 seats left to win so even if the Liberals win them all they are still not in a majority. I never Said the NDP has a chance at a Majority I said the chance of any majority is the same as the NDP forming a government. Which is close to 0 your numbers prove this. Majorities aren't a thing anymore and the parties need to get use to that. This was a push to suggest anyone has a shot at a majority.

Clearly you missed the point. The point being the base numbers are not static. This was clearly demonstrated in the last election hence the LPC ended up with substantially less seats then 105 seats sitting at 77. To assume that these base numbers cannot and will not change is unreasonable.

Where did the 28 base seats go; some to the NDP, some to Bloc and some to the CPC. The seats change hands at the drop of a hat. Obviously it's not possible for both the CPC and LPC to have the same division of seats nor have they. This is the nature of the political pendulum in Canada. Take a look at history it's not as irrelevant as you'd like to make it out to be. You’d like to think that majorities are a thing of the past based on 5 years worth a data, that’s hardly sufficient time to consider it anything more than a short term trend.

So obviously a LPC and CPC majority are both possible at the expense of the other parties. Let’s take your NDP base 30 seats for example, 30 seats I might remind you they have held only since 2006. Actually it was 29 seats but who’s counting? Prior to that in 2004 the NDP held 19 seats, in 2000 13 seats, in 1997 21, in 1993 a stunning 9 seats. In fact you have to go all the way back to 1988 to get above 30 when the NDP had 43 seats which was due in large part to another Liberal dud, Turner. You see the NDP only really flourish when the LPC is weak and the NDP base is really drawn from the LPC.

I stand by my argument, Ontario and Quebec are the King makers, If the LPC can steal enough seats from the Bloc and make gains in Ontario a majority is well within their grasp. This was not a push poll in the least. This was a poll that was based on what has been a long term trend in Canadian politics and not something that from a historical stand point will be little more than an anomalous blip on the political radar. Both the LPC and the CPC have held majorities in the past and it is not even the least bit unlikely that they will do so again.

[benny]

See I love this post because it makes no sense. Look at your bases.

Liberals:105

Cons:105

PQ:40

NDP:30

Meaning there is is 20 seats left to win so even if the Liberals win them all they are still not in a majority. I never Said the NDP has a chance at a Majority I said the chance of any majority is the same as the NDP forming a government. Which is close to 0 your numbers prove this. Majorities aren't a thing anymore and the parties need to get use to that. This was a push to suggest anyone has a shot at a majority.

You have to love his nonsense because Dave borrowed your base numbers for the BQ and the NDP.

[punked]

So obviously a LPC and CPC majority are both possible at the expense of the other parties. Let’s take your NDP base 30 seats for example, 30 seats I might remind you they have held only since 2006. Actually it was 29 seats but who’s counting? Prior to that in 2004 the NDP held 19 seats, in 2000 13 seats, in 1997 21, in 1993 a stunning 9 seats. In fact you have to go all the way back to 1988 to get above 30 when the NDP had 43 seats which was due in large part to another Liberal dud, Turner. You see the NDP only really flourish when the LPC is weak and the NDP base is really drawn from the LPC.

I stand by my argument, Ontario and Quebec are the King makers, If the LPC can steal enough seats from the Bloc and make gains in Ontario a majority is well within their grasp. This was not a push poll in the least. This was a poll that was based on what has been a long term trend in Canadian politics and not something that from a historical stand point will be little more than an anomalous blip on the political radar. Both the LPC and the CPC have held majorities in the past and it is not even the least bit unlikely that they will do so again.

See here is the problem and you are right the NDP base is much closer to 20 seats. But in 1993 politics in Canada changed there is no point looking beyond that time because it was a different country politically then. What changed? Quebec and the West. This was the beginning of the end of majorities. The West stopped voting for the Liberals altogether, and Quebec started voting for the Bloc. The NDP dose not matter becuase the Blocs 30 base seats make it so the Liberals can never have a majority.

PS the CPC and Libs base is much closer to 60, those are 60 seats that wont change hands in the next 10 years.

[punked]

You have to love his nonsense because Dave borrowed your base numbers for the BQ and the NDP.

Even if he didn't borrow my number you would agree the Bloc and the NDP are going to win seats? If you do and the Cons win 105 and the Liberals win 105 then wont be a majority with two other parties winning seats.

[Smallc]

What changed? Quebec and the West.

And what you seem to forget is that they'll change again.

[punked]

And what you seem to forget is that they'll change again.

Never said that but not within the next few years which was the point of this push poll we are talking about. Wait the point of this poll was so news paper across the country could make it look like their is only two options.

Edited July 15, 2009 by punked

[Smallc]

Never said that but not within the next few years which was the point of this push poll we are talking about.

The point of this poll was to show that people are tiring of minorities (and conceivably, Conservatives).