Canadian Political Polls

[jdobbin]

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/090730/...ada_us_politics

Canada's opposition Liberals have regained a slight lead in public opinion over the ruling Conservatives, but neither party has enough support to be sure of winning an election if one were held now, a weekly poll showed on Thursday.

The Ekos survey for the Canadian Broadcasting Corp put the Liberals at 34.1 percent support, up from 32.5 percent last week. The Conservatives were at 32.5 percent, down from 32.8 percent.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/07/30/weekly-...ok-it-twitched/

Liberals – 34.1 (+1.6)

Conservatives – 32.5 (-0.3)

NDP – 14.5 (-0.3)

Bloc – 8.6 (+0.2)

Green – 10.4 (-1.1)

No real changes in the poll except a simple switching of places.

Edited July 30, 2009 by jdobbin

[Smallc]

Why did the switch happen though? That's surprising given that nothing has really taken place to change the climate.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Why did the switch happen though? That's surprising given that nothing has really taken place to change the climate.

Perhaps it has something to do with the demographic selection, or the time at which polling was taken? It could be anything, even a hidden trend.

[madmax]

Angus Reid for The Star;

CPC 33%

Liberal 34%

NDP 16%

Bloc 10%

GP 7%

[Jerry J. Fortin]

Angus Reid for The Star;

CPC 33%

Liberal 34%

NDP 16%

Bloc 10%

GP 7%

In other words another freaking lame duck House of Commons with nothing getting done. I am not sure which is worse, leaving Harper in power or a Liberal government doing the same thing as Harper.

[madmax]

In other words another freaking lame duck House of Commons with nothing getting done. I am not sure which is worse, leaving Harper in power or a Liberal government doing the same thing as Harper.

What's worse is a fall election that costs another $300 million and will result in another minority government. The polls are saying stalemate, infact, little has changed in 4 years. All numbers are within the margin of error.

With these numbers... Iggy best shut up and get to business.

[jdobbin]

With these numbers... Iggy best shut up and get to business.

But you keep saying that business is to stand up and say no and go to an election.

Or is that we shouldn't go to an election?

Or is it the Liberals are the only party to blame for an election or not having an election while all the other parties are blameless?

[Jerry J. Fortin]

But you keep saying that business is to stand up and say no and go to an election.

Or is that we shouldn't go to an election?

Or is it the Liberals are the only party to blame for an election or not having an election while all the other parties are blameless?

There are two main camps, one is in power and the other isn't. At any given time one wants an election to get in power. Its always a crap shoot, and nobody ever knows which way the wind will blow.

[Dave_ON]

Why did the switch happen though? That's surprising given that nothing has really taken place to change the climate.

I'd say it's not so much a switch as much as it's the margin for error at play. Taking into account the margin of error of 1.9% neither the LPC nor the CPC shifted beyond that. Essentially the poll shows that both parties have remained about the same and are statistically tied in the polls.

[benny]

No real changes in the poll except a simple switching of places.

For those addicted to gambling, close race can become overly exciting!

[Dave_ON]

For those addicted to gambling, close race can become overly exciting!

Same also applies to political junkies

[madmax]

But you keep saying that business is to stand up and say no and go to an election.

Or is that we shouldn't go to an election?

Or is it the Liberals are the only party to blame for an election or not having an election while all the other parties are blameless?

Try harder....

Edited July 30, 2009 by madmax

[jdobbin]

Try harder....

Just noting that "having it both ways" argument I see. The Liberals are to blame either way election or not.

My feeling is that there going to be an election this fall. Harper will call it although he would most likely want to wait till after the Olympics or the G8 meeting to do it. I don't think he wants to fall on a confidence motion though and he knows the other parties will not be interested in letting him come off a high of free publicity.

Ignatieff does want to back down again. I expect that his only timeframe now is going to be this fall.

[benny]

Same also applies to political junkies

If most citizens were political junkies and strategists, all these media polls would become meaningless.

[madmax]

Just noting that "having it both ways" argument I see. .

The Liberals have had it both ways for nearly 3 years. But more importantly, the Liberals are motivated by polling data and polling data only.

You choose to argue the "Both ways" angle when responding to my posts. But a Liberal always sees things both ways.

Seriously... the Issue was EI and the Liberals could have continued to support the Bill before the house, which contains everything they currently are pretending to champion. There isn't anything different.

The government would not have "Fallen" over supporting the private members bill. So your argument is weak.

Rather then support the Bill the Liberals were supporting, they joined the Conservatives in concluding parliment.

But WHY.. WHY ON EARTH.. Would Ignatieff be so stupid, to step out of the box, then challenge Harper ALONE, on the very same issues that were before the house.

Essentially the Liberals walked away from the Bill, and started talking some hot air, and Harper Gunned them down.

It was an ugly mess and Harper Schooled Ignatieff in the staredown.

Meanwhile the polls remain stagnant, however, one benefit is that when Ignatieff mouth stops moving the Liberal polling numbers go up a little.

Its almost like the winner will be the leader who talks the least....

[jdobbin]

The Liberals have had it both ways for nearly 3 years. But more importantly, the Liberals are motivated by polling data and polling data only.

You choose to argue the "Both ways" angle when responding to my posts. But a Liberal always sees things both ways.

It is probably the reason the Liberals have been in government more often.

Seriously... the Issue was EI and the Liberals could have continued to support the Bill before the house, which contains everything they currently are pretending to champion. There isn't anything different.

The government would not have "Fallen" over supporting the private members bill. So your argument is weak.

I believe that is exactly what the government was arguing. Harper was threatening an election over it.

I don't know that anything would have been decided but I know for certain all sides would blame the Liberals for it.

Rather then support the Bill the Liberals were supporting, they joined the Conservatives in concluding parliment.

But WHY.. WHY ON EARTH.. Would Ignatieff be so stupid, to step out of the box, then challenge Harper ALONE, on the very same issues that were before the house.

Essentially the Liberals walked away from the Bill, and started talking some hot air, and Harper Gunned them down.

It was an ugly mess and Harper Schooled Ignatieff in the staredown.

I agree. My feeling is that Harper will only do things his way and if he wants to call an election over a private member's bill, there is nothing to stop him.

I don't Ignatieff can let it happen again. It is why I think an election is coming in the fall. One of the other side will pull the trigger.

Meanwhile the polls remain stagnant, however, one benefit is that when Ignatieff mouth stops moving the Liberal polling numbers go up a little.

Its almost like the winner will be the leader who talks the least....

That doesn't seem to be what the media wants. It is the first summer I've seen in a long time where they want the leaders campaigning out there like an election is already happening.

[benny]

The Liberals have had it both ways for nearly 3 years. But more importantly, the Liberals are motivated by polling data and polling data only.

Motivation cannot translate itself into any meaningful actions when one is only motivated by polling data.

[jdobbin]

Latest Ekos poll:

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/08/06/ekos-we...were-last-week/

Conservatives: 34.9 (+2.4)

Liberals: 31.9 (-0.6)

NDP: 13.8 (-0.7)

Bloc Quebecois: 8.6 (-)

Greens: 10.8 (+0.4)

Wells goes on to say that the BQ might be suffering from the Tory attack on them in regards to crime.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2009/08/06/those-t...rime-quebecers/

But the last Ekos poll before they started letter-bombing Bloc ridings with their mailers was released on June 18. It showed the Conservatives at 14.8% in Quebec, the Liberals at 31.2%, the NDP at 9.6% and the Bloc at 35.6%. Today’s Ekos shows the Conservatives up 4.6 points at 19.4%, the Liberals steady at 31.0%, the NDP up 4.4 points at 14.0%, and the Bloc down 5.7 points at 29.9%. That puts the Conservatives back close to the score that allowed them to hold 10 Quebec seats last October, after months of truly dismal support. It also puts the Bloc well below the lowest level of support they have received in any federal election since 1993.

Guess we'll find out how solid that is in the fall.

As I've said before, Tory fortunes rise in the summer.

Is it enough for them to call a snap election in September? Maybe.

[madmax]

As I've said before, Tory fortunes rise in the summer.

CPC MPs are running around being photo opp kings.

[punked]

I think the Conservative were over polled in this poll. Honestly I think they are 3% lower and those come at 2% expense to the NDP and 1% form the Bloc. It just does not look right when you look at regional break downs.

[benny]

I think that the percent points gain/lost in a non-electoral summer are momentary at best.

[Oleg Bach]

Rule by pole is the sign of a weak government - we do not have politcal "leaders" these days - just followers of the mass public will - and as George Bernard Shaw once said - "The majority is always wrong" _ so why would a responsible politician goiagainst his own grain and follow a pole? Probably because he is not interested in what is good for the population - just interested in holding power even if it screws the nation.

[benny]

Rule by pole is the sign of a weak government - we do not have politcal "leaders" these days - just followers of the mass public will - and as George Bernard Shaw once said - "The majority is always wrong" _ so why would a responsible politician goiagainst his own grain and follow a pole? Probably because he is not interested in what is good for the population - just interested in holding power even if it screws the nation.

The Poll is the new God: few believes in it directly but most believes in it through their beliefs in what others believe.

[jdobbin]

Latest poll from

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1878868

The latest poll by Nanos Research, completed by a random sample of about 1,000 Canadians between July 30 and August 2, shows 33.8% of the electorate would cast a ballot for the Liberals, versus 31.3% for the Conservative Party. The numbers are considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

From a leadership standpoint, 29.5% of Canadians said Mr. Harper would make the best prime minister, while 26.2% opted for Mr. Ignatieff.

Some of the analysts said the NDP will be motivated more than ever to have an election. Others commented how heavily weighted the Tory vote is in the west and how that should be viewed in regards to total numbers.

[benny]

Latest poll

Some of the analysts said the NDP will be motivated more than ever to have an election.

Being motivated by a poll that doesn't count!