Jerry J. Fortin Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 When talking about those bases of support... for the secondary parties, they rely on relative satisfaction with the status quo. (Counterintuitive as that may seem.)When people don't have their tails in a knot, or see an intense necessity for change, then they have the luxury of fracturing vote, and giving the nod to secondary parties and independents. When they are very upset or see large risks, then they coalesce around the idea of making a national difference, and vote strategically for one of the two primaries. I think that is a true statement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 When talking about those bases of support... for the secondary parties, they rely on relative satisfaction with the status quo. (Counterintuitive as that may seem.)When people don't have their tails in a knot, or see an intense necessity for change, then they have the luxury of fracturing vote, and giving the nod to secondary parties and independents. When they are very upset or see large risks, then they coalesce around the idea of making a national difference, and vote strategically for one of the two primaries. Give me an example of how this is true. Those bases are pretty committed to their MP's or their parties regardless of what is going on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 The Libs have more popular support and get less seats. Yet I would think they will lose a few more in both Quebec and Ontario, not to mention Alberta and BC. I agree looking at the trends Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 (edited) Another poll out today. Liberals on their way down the CPC on their way up even after the G8 and the whole waffer thing. This new poll was conducted before the G8 Summit: Another poll released on the same day suggests 48 per cent of Canadians support the use of Canadian troops "for security and combat efforts against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan."The Ipsos Reid poll, commissioned for Canwest News and Global Television, also suggested 52 per cent of those polled want the combat mission to end in 2011. That survey of 1,001 people was conducted between June 29 and July 6, 2009, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Edited July 16, 2009 by benny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 (edited) This new poll was conducted before the G8 Summit. Did you read the poll it was conducted July 8th-14th so that is not true at all. Apparently the Liberals were hopping it hurt Harper it just didn't though if you look at the tracking it helped him from the start of the G8 to the end. Edited July 16, 2009 by punked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Did you read the poll it was conducted July 8th-14th so that is not true at all. Apparently the Liberals were hopping it hurt Harper it just didn't though if you look at the tracking it helped him from the start of the G8 to the end. There are two new polls on Afghanistan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted July 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Yep they moved up in all the places it wont count and down in all the places it will. The NDP continues to sink as I expect they will all summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 The NDP continues to sink as I expect they will all summer. Like if summer time was a significant moment for politics! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted July 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Like if summer time was a significant moment for politics! Well, you seem to be on a politics site and it is summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Well, you seem to be on a politics site and it is summer. I'm only practicing! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 The NDP continues to sink as I expect they will all summer. No way they will get a lift during their convention for sure if they get in the news with a name change. Problem is the news freezes them out and so they sink. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 No way they will get a lift during their convention for sure if they get in the news with a name change. Problem is the news freezes them out and so they sink. Nothing can stay new forever though without a renewal of enthusiasm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Nothing can stay new forever though without a renewal of enthusiasm! Well if you call going form 7% support 15 years ago to 18% support no renewal in enthusiasm the Liberals must be looking pretty bad to you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Well if you call going form 7% support 15 years ago to 18% support no renewal in enthusiasm the Liberals must be looking pretty bad to you. Thomas Mulcair is not exactly a new enthusiast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted July 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 No way they will get a lift during their convention for sure if they get in the news with a name change. Problem is the news freezes them out and so they sink. And if they don't, I'm sure you'll blame the media. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdobbin Posted July 16, 2009 Author Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Well if you call going form 7% support 15 years ago to 18% support no renewal in enthusiasm the Liberals must be looking pretty bad to you. Below 16% now and heading down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 And if they don't, I'm sure you'll blame the media. Is he not already blaming them!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Below 16% now and heading down. I was going by federal election numbers, you know the only poll that counts. There could be a poll tomorrow that put them at 25% would you be touting that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 I was going by federal election numbers, you know the only poll that counts. There could be a poll tomorrow that put them at 25% would you be touting that? You seem to care a lot about all media polls though! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Is he not already blaming them!? I am saying being in the media helps a party. However in the end who cares the NDP is at least the conscience of Canada wanted EI reform before it was a "Liberal issue" and after the Liberals throw it out becuase it is not popular enough for them. They think those who are beaten down, don't need to stay their. There is something truly Canadian about them poll numbers come and do. From 8 seats in 58, and the 9 seats in 93 to the 43 seats in 88, and 37 seats in 2008. We have had our highs and lows and we aren't going anywhere. It hurts Liberals like Dobbin that people vote for the NDP becuase they see the Liberals aren't the progressive party they claim to be. Whenever the Liberals win it just makes the NDP vote stronger when people see what they get. Guess what Dobbin we aren't going away. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 You seem to care a lot about all media polls though! That is becuase I have a degree in statistics. Also becuase polls shape Liberal policy. I love to see the polls and watch the Liberals try to sell themselves as the whatever the NEW issue the polls say. In the end we all know the only poll that counts is election day. At least for most parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 I am saying being in the media helps a party. However in the end who cares the NDP is at least the conscience of Canada wanted EI reform before it was a "Liberal issue" and after the Liberals throw it out becuase it is not popular enough for them. They think those who are beaten down, don't need to stay their. There is something truly Canadian about them poll numbers come and do. From 8 seats in 58, and the 9 seats in 93 to the 43 seats in 88, and 37 seats in 2008. We have had our highs and lows and we aren't going anywhere. It hurts Liberals like Dobbin that people vote for the NDP becuase they see the Liberals aren't the progressive party they claim to be. Whenever the Liberals win it just makes the NDP vote stronger when people see what they get. Guess what Dobbin we aren't going away. Sure you love division (Liberals vs NPD) but you don't love it enough to make a difference in Canadian politics. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 Sure you love division (Liberals vs NPD) but you don't love it enough to make a difference in Canadian politics. What does that even mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benny Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 (edited) What does that even mean? That means that the Conservatives stay in power. You divide and they rule/conquer you. Edited July 16, 2009 by benny Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted July 16, 2009 Report Share Posted July 16, 2009 (edited) That means that the Conservatives stay in power. You divide and they rule you. So? The Conservatives in Power the Liberals in power. I don't really see a difference. See this is the old Liberal arguement "you shouldn't vote your conscience becuase if you do the Boogie man might rule the country." I don't like the Liberals in power as much as I don't like the Conservatives in power. They have same basic policies ask yourself why the Liberals sided with the Conservatives 79 straight votes of confidence. Or caved on EI. They both represent the special interests, their is very little different about them. Edited July 16, 2009 by punked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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