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Posted
No I have never said that, near the end the Polls predicted a Rea win, I am saying Polls can not see the future they are a snap shot of the present.

What is the point to predict the present!?

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Posted
No I am saying it has been to blame, along with a poor message, and crappy moves from with in the central party. I can't speak to the future Dobbin I am sorry I am not a Liberal I can not see the future, I can see is happening right now and I think you guys are doing well but it is not at the NDP's expense. I also see in an election the NDP often out performs the polls going into it.

I think that as long as you have Layton, you will be stuck. He has gone as far as he can go. In the end, he is just not considered as a potential prime minister. Even among some NDP, he just doesn't inspire.

Posted
I think that as long as you have Layton, you will be stuck. He has gone as far as he can go. In the end, he is just not considered as a potential prime minister. Even among some NDP, he just doesn't inspire.

And that is fine, but the NDP members get to pick their leader and they have Picked Layton. I know I can say somethings about your leader but it wont matter becuase I am not the one he needs to win votes from just as you are not the ones we need to the vote of. Over the last year we have been polling well, pushing some really good ideas, and building on the base. It is going well I can't speak the future Dobbin I don't know what you want form me. I think we can steal some progressives as the Liberal's move to the right and do well, I also think the Liberals need to do something to win the next election and that point seems to escape them. Having a leader with out a plan that promises, to subsidize ferries when he is a ferry town, and then promises more oil production when he is an oil town is what Paul Martin did. It wont work Canadians know tough decisions have to be made sometimes and he hasn't made a one.

Posted
Ummmmm I don't really know what to say to this, polls can't predict the future no one can.

To say it differently, what's the point of being interested to snap shots of the present when the present is not favoring the NDP!?

Posted
To say it differently, what's the point of being interested to snap shots of the present when the present is not favoring the NDP!?

Becuase the country is about how the people feel not how the NDP feels.

Posted
Becuase the country is about how the people feel not how the NDP feels.

Like if media polls could know the will of the people more accurately than the political representatives of the people!

Posted
I think you are making up your own impression of the NDP from your past stereotypes. The NDP only took 5 seats in Ontario form the Liberals meaning there is 12 seats which are all their own winning them from the Conservatives or taking them from Paul Martin.

I don't understand your math. How is taking 5 seats from Liberals the whole story? Of those other seats, how many were won by picking up votes from Liberals who voted NDP 'cuz they couldn't stomach Dion? What about traditional vote splits that changed because of Liberals who stayed home?

Surely the math is not as simplistic as you imply!

"A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always depend on the support of Paul."

-- George Bernard Shaw

"There is no point in being difficult when, with a little extra effort, you can be completely impossible."

Posted (edited)
I don't understand your math. How is taking 5 seats from Liberals the whole story? Of those other seats, how many were won by picking up votes from Liberals who voted NDP 'cuz they couldn't stomach Dion? What about traditional vote splits that changed because of Liberals who stayed home?

Surely the math is not as simplistic as you imply!

We took 5 seats from the Liberals in 2008 in Ontario to bring us to 17 Ontario seats, we lost one Peggy Nash, and picked up a Conservative seat. In 2006 we had 12 seats with Martin pulling 40% of the vote I can assume unless Ignaiteff can pull 40+% of the vote the only NDP seats in play are those 5 we took. Make sense?

Edited by punked
Posted
I don't understand your math. How is taking 5 seats from Liberals the whole story? Of those other seats, how many were won by picking up votes from Liberals who voted NDP 'cuz they couldn't stomach Dion? What about traditional vote splits that changed because of Liberals who stayed home?

Surely the math is not as simplistic as you imply!

Agreed, last election was definitely an anomaly, many of the ridings the NDP "stole" were by a narrow margin. There was a great deal of vote splitting that often came at the Liberals expense. The traditional Liberal votes didn’t just go to the NDP but the CPC as well the Greens. Ignatieff has managed to win back the confidence of the traditional Liberal support base and has even managed to eat into some of the Bloc's territory. This coming election will be vastly different then the last. Ignatieff has already shown he's not willing to reveal his hand until election time; this is smart given Mr. Harper's past tactics.

The problem with the NDP is they've never governed on a federal level, and the provincial NDP have left a bad taste in the mouths of Ontarian's that will not soon be forgotten. Combine this with the fact that Layton comes across as anti-big business, something that doesn't sit well with most Canadians. Sure Canadians like to complain about big business, but most of us realize that the success of big business is our success as well. The role of government is not to run business nor is it to regulate into the ground and out of the country. This is why the CPC's and the LPC have traditionally formed the government and why they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Follow the man who seeks the truth; run from the man who has found it.

-Vaclav Haval-

Posted
Agreed, last election was definitely an anomaly, many of the ridings the NDP "stole" were by a narrow margin. There was a great deal of vote splitting that often came at the Liberals expense. The traditional Liberal votes didn’t just go to the NDP but the CPC as well the Greens. Ignatieff has managed to win back the confidence of the traditional Liberal support base and has even managed to eat into some of the Bloc's territory. This coming election will be vastly different then the last. Ignatieff has already shown he's not willing to reveal his hand until election time; this is smart given Mr. Harper's past tactics.

The problem with the NDP is they've never governed on a federal level, and the provincial NDP have left a bad taste in the mouths of Ontarian's that will not soon be forgotten. Combine this with the fact that Layton comes across as anti-big business, something that doesn't sit well with most Canadians. Sure Canadians like to complain about big business, but most of us realize that the success of big business is our success as well. The role of government is not to run business nor is it to regulate into the ground and out of the country. This is why the CPC's and the LPC have traditionally formed the government and why they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

This just isn't true. Look at the 2006 federal election for this we "Stole" 9 seats in all of Canada in 2008 and some of those were form Conservatives. I have no idea where you guys are getting your numbers from seriously? Ignatieff has 2006 Paul Martin Numbers right now he is not the saviour yet. Most the seats the Liberals lost were to the Conservatives seriously the NDP is a strong position and the more the Liberals go for the Conservative vote the less we worry.

See this is you projecting your own NDP stereotypes with out looking at the numbers. Layton is doing just fine can he add to the seat count, now that I don't know but the NDP have climbed in Quebec making it hard for the Liberals and Conservatives there because their climb does not come at the expense of the Bloc. Ontario our numbers are showing a 12-17 seat count again. Our BC numbers are fine and the rest of the seats are safe (accept Alberta, and NWT). I honestly don't know where this comes from.

Posted
This just isn't true. Look at the 2006 federal election for this we "Stole" 9 seats in all of Canada in 2008 and some of those were form Conservatives. I have no idea where you guys are getting your numbers from seriously? Ignatieff has 2006 Paul Martin Numbers right now he is not the saviour yet. Most the seats the Liberals lost were to the Conservatives seriously the NDP is a strong position and the more the Liberals go for the Conservative vote the less we worry.

See this is you projecting your own NDP stereotypes with out looking at the numbers. Layton is doing just fine can he add to the seat count, now that I don't know but the NDP have climbed in Quebec making it hard for the Liberals and Conservatives there because their climb does not come at the expense of the Bloc. Ontario our numbers are showing a 12-17 seat count again. Our BC numbers are fine and the rest of the seats are safe (accept Alberta, and NWT). I honestly don't know where this comes from.

How can we make sense of our NDP partisanship when you wrote just one hour ago: "the country is about how the people feel not how the NDP feels"?

Posted
How can we make sense of our NDP partisanship when you wrote just one hour ago: "the country is about how the people feel not how the NDP feels"?

It is true. It is about how the people feel. the NDP hold around 20% support and should get 20% say wouldn't you think? As for NDP partisanship I am using actual numbers seems like everyone else in this thread are using "feelings" to decide what the seat count might be.

Posted
It is true. It is about how the people feel. the NDP hold around 20% support and should get 20% say wouldn't you think? As for NDP partisanship I am using actual numbers seems like everyone else in this thread are using "feelings" to decide what the seat count might be.

We are doing politics while you are doing statistics!

Posted
We are doing politics while you are doing statistics!

Isn't that what got the Liberals in the problem in the first place. Face it Iggy has Martin numbers the most he can grab from Jack with those numbers is 10 seats, if that is your plan for government it is silly.

Posted
And that is fine, but the NDP members get to pick their leader and they have Picked Layton.

Which is why the party is stuck below 20%. In fact, since the beginning of the year the party has been consistently below its election result.

Posted
Where is the problem in having politicians doing politics!?

What does that even mean. You are making no sense at all if you are against polls fine but they show a snap shot of Canada today as it is.

Posted
Which is why the party is stuck below 20%. In fact, since the beginning of the year the party has been consistently below its election result.

I don't know if you can blame Layton so much as the party's slow pull to the center. We really need to get their faster. We always poll below our election results that is nothing new.

Posted
I don't know if you can blame Layton so much as the party's slow pull to the center. We really need to get their faster. We always poll below our election results that is nothing new.

I thought it was clear from the convention that the party believes Canadians will come to them rather them moving to the center.

Posted
I thought it was clear from the convention that the party believes Canadians will come to them rather them moving to the center.

If you think passing resolutions for small business tax cuts, defending Canadians aboard, women's rights, and affirming support for free trade when it is truly is free trade are far outside the center maybe I don't want to be in the center.

Posted
If you think passing resolutions for small business tax cuts, defending Canadians aboard, women's rights, and affirming support for free trade when it is truly is free trade are far outside the center maybe I don't want to be in the center.

Those are what I was talking about. It was the attitude that the party was not going to move the center. There are a few quotes to that effect by some of the NDP brass.

Posted
Those are what I was talking about. It was the attitude that the party was not going to move the center. There are a few quotes to that effect by some of the NDP brass.

Accept the policies passed speak very differently Dobbin. You don't think free trade is toward the center? How about a small business tax cut? You do know when your party moves to the right it doesn't get to take the center with it don't you?

Posted
If you think passing resolutions for small business tax cuts, defending Canadians aboard, women's rights, and affirming support for free trade when it is truly is free trade are far outside the center maybe I don't want to be in the center.

At the epicentre, there is a lot of underground activities.

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