Canadian Political Polls

[Jerry J. Fortin]

I really think some of you are misunderstanding this. It has nothing to do with voting intention or choice.

I really don't think you have thought about this very much.

[benny]

I really don't think you have thought about this very much.

What is your "this" stands for?

Edited July 14, 2009 by benny

[Smallc]

It's not that difficult. There are only two parties that can form government (without a coalition) and there are only two outcomes for each when they form government (even if present circumstances make that difficult). A poll like this simply asks which party people would prefer and in what circumstance, it doesn't ask how they would vote.

[Jerry J. Fortin]

It's not that difficult. There are only two parties that can form government (without a coalition) and there are only two outcomes for each when they form government (even if present circumstances make that difficult). A poll like this simply asks which party people would prefer and in what circumstance, it doesn't ask how they would vote.

Just a bit of hair splitting don't you think?

Besides that what two outcomes do each have when they form a government?

[benny]

A poll like this simply asks which party people would prefer and in what circumstance, it doesn't ask how they would vote.

Is there not too many circumstances!?

[punked]

It's not that difficult. There are only two parties that can form government (without a coalition) and there are only two outcomes for each when they form government (even if present circumstances make that difficult). A poll like this simply asks which party people would prefer and in what circumstance, it doesn't ask how they would vote.

I agree there are only two options so why give 4? Ohhhhh it is because in a push poll you want to create news instead of report it. If you are going to ask about Liberal Majority you should ask NDP minority they have the same chance of happening. They didn't ask about that because this is a push poll I don't know why you are defending it.

[Dave_ON]

I agree there are only two options so why give 4? Ohhhhh it is because in a push poll you want to create news instead of report it. If you are going to ask about Liberal Majority you should ask NDP minority they have the same chance of happening. They didn't ask about that because this is a push poll I don't know why you are defending it.

Because never in the entire history of our country has a party that is not the LPC or some incarnation of the CPC ever formed the government nor is it at all likely that they ever will. Both the above parties have formed majorities in the past and will again in the future.

[punked]

Because never in the entire history of our country has a party that is not the LPC or some incarnation of the CPC ever formed the government nor is it at all likely that they ever will. Both the above parties have formed majorities in the past and will again in the future.

I live in the present not the past. Look at the numbers, an NDP government is just as possible as a Liberal majority with 40 Quebec seats out of play becuase of the Bloc and the Conservatives united the Liberals can't go over the top. If are claiming becuase in the past, when their was no Bloc or a Split Conservative party, the Liberals did it means they can do it today then you are really out of touch with Canadian politics. Majorities are a thing of the past for now too many parties with large bases.

Tell me where do you see the Liberals best case making those 155 seats. You can't becuase the numbers simply aren't there. Don't worry though they aren't there for the Conservatives either.

[jdobbin]

I live in the present not the past. Look at the numbers, an NDP government is just as possible as a Liberal majority with 40 Quebec seats out of play becuase of the Bloc and the Conservatives united the Liberals can't go over the top. If are claiming becuase in the past, when their was no Bloc or a Split Conservative party, the Liberals did it means they can do it today then you are really out of touch with Canadian politics. Majorities are a thing of the past for now too many parties with large bases.

So you are predicting a NDP government?

Tell me where do you see the Liberals best case making those 155 seats. You can't becuase the numbers simply aren't there. Don't worry though they aren't there for the Conservatives either.

I guess we should see what one of the main pollsters in Quebec says:

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?...battle/&c=2

Historically a faltering economy is bad news for the electoral fortunes of the governing party, but in Quebec the Conservative government's poll numbers are already so dismal the recession could cause the separatist Bloc Québécois to bleed votes to the federal Liberals, says a leading Quebec pollster.

"It will be more difficult for the Bloc to maintain their number of seats because on the economy issue they're not strong," said Jean-Marc Léger of Léger Marketing. "On the identity issue, [the Bloc] are strong, so it depends what kind of campaign we have. The more the campaign is on the economy, the more Liberals will be elected. The more the campaign is on the nationalism issue the more Bloc will win seats. The party that controls the agenda will win seats in Quebec."

[Jerry J. Fortin]

So you are predicting a NDP government?

I guess we should see what one of the main pollsters in Quebec says:

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?...battle/&c=2

I have to agree with this theory.

[punked]

I guess we should see what one of the main pollsters in Quebec says:

http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?...battle/&c=2

Yep he right with a little push in Quebec and good numbers in the rest of Canada the Liberals may squeak out a slim victory. They aren't going to win a majority, just like the NDP aren't going to form a government. Although the chances of an NDP government are the same as the Liberal forming a majority.

Don't believe me then give me a province break down where the Liberals form a majority please? Cause this is what I see as the best case for the Liberals, IE Harper is caught in a some sort of major scandal or something.

Atlantic: 21

PQ:30

Ontario: 60

Manitoba, Saskatchewan: 8

Alberta:2

British Columbia:13

North: 3

137 +/-10 and you still aren't a majority. That is best case type of thing it is the glass ceiling. The last time the Liberals formed a majority government they won 100 seats in Ontario that wont happen again it just wont.

Edited July 15, 2009 by punked

[Smallc]

You aren't giving them enough credit. They could do a lot better in Ontario if they play things right.

[benny]

You aren't giving them enough credit. They could do a lot better in Ontario if they play things right.

It is a truism to say: they could do better if they play better.

[punked]

You aren't giving them enough credit. They could do a lot better in Ontario if they play things right.

Even if they win 75-80 seats in Ontario they can't win a majority.

PS with the Conservative vote not split they can't win that many. 70 is their upper limit there now.

[jdobbin]

Don't believe me then give me a province break down where the Liberals form a majority please? Cause this is what I see as the best case for the Liberals, IE Harper is caught in a some sort of major scandal or something.

It has to happen in Quebec if it happens at all.

[punked]

It has to happen in Quebec if it happens at all.

Accept even when they won 45% in 2000 in Quebec they only won 34 seats, which was less then the Bloc who only won 39% but 36 seats. It can't happen in Quebec with the Bloc. Majorities are a thing of the past, in fact I think the Conservatives have a better chance at a Majority then anyone else becuase they start with the biggest base votes.

[benny]

PS with the Conservative vote not split they can't win that many.

I know my post here will be difficult to swallow but I have to say at this point that the basic electoral rule ("one voter, one vote") is fundamentally a vote slitting rule.

[jdobbin]

Accept even when they won 45% in 2000 in Quebec they only won 34 seats, which was less then the Bloc who only won 39% but 36 seats. It can't happen in Quebec with the Bloc. Majorities are a thing of the past, in fact I think the Conservatives have a better chance at a Majority then anyone else becuase they start with the biggest base votes.

Which is why the main party the Liberals have to convince Quebecers is not best for the economy is the Bloc. A few more percentage points down as Leger says and things will begin to move.

[benny]

Which is why the main party the Liberals have to convince Quebecers is not best for the economy is the Bloc. A few more percentage points down as Leger says and things will begin to move.

Analyzing polls shows you where you have to be convincing but not very much about how to be convincing in there.

[punked]

Which is why the main party the Liberals have to convince Quebecers is not best for the economy is the Bloc. A few more percentage points down as Leger says and things will begin to move.

Like I said the Bloc has a base of 30 seats those wont be going anywhere.

[benny]

Like I said the Bloc has a base of 30 seats those wont be going anywhere.

It is not a reason to forget about these seats.

[punked]

It is not a reason to forget about these seats.

It is the reason why a Liberal majority is as about as possible as the NDP forming government.

[benny]

It is the reason why a Liberal majority is as about as possible as the NDP forming government.

Governing Canada when Quebec is about to declare its independence is not very exciting though.

Edited July 15, 2009 by benny

[punked]

Governing Canada when Quebec is about to declare its independence is not very exciting though.

I have no clue what you are talking about.

[Smallc]

Neither does he.