betsy
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Prediction: landslide victory for Trump (by Helmut Norpoth)
The PRIMARY MODEL gives President Donald Trump a 91% chance of winning the 2020 presidential election, with Democrat Joe Biden having just a 9% chance. Trump would get 362 electoral votes, Biden 176. This forecast is unconditional and final; hence not subject to any updating. It was first posted March 2, 2020, on Twitter.
In 2016, when polls, pundits and forecasters were all predicting a certain victory for Hillary Clinton, the PRIMARY MODEL was practically alone in predicting Donald Trump’s victory. It did so as early as March 7 that year, putting his chance of winning at 87%. http://primarymodel.com/2016-forecast-full.
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So you're basing your confidence on a prediction that was made before COVID-19 shutdowns happened? That's the single most important factor that will effect this election.
The site cites Trump being the incumbent as an advantage. It hasn't been. Biden's lead is widening, not tightening up as predicted.
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