nittanylionstorm07

I'm going with 101-125. They won't get a majority, but they are in the running to get a plurality or tie the Tories. Which, if the NDP and Tories tie in seat counts, I wonder who gets asked first to form the government?

I guess we should then start painting the Conservatives as being all like Grant Devine.

I know it's frightening for you Tories that the NDP could beat the Tories in seat counts, but you need to calm down. Go breathe into a paper bag.

First, the last few polls have shown a shallow decrease in support for the Tories in Ontario, look it up. Second, it is quite likely that those increased numbers from the 2008 election are located in already Tory-held places, solidifying their lead over Liberals in those ridings. The NDP are edging out the Liberals in ridings that matter now in the GTA... this is where the change in seats is occurring, the Tories may get only 1-2 seats from the Liberals from their increase. You have a fundamental lack of understanding of how FPTP works.

Which ones? The only ones we haven't seen recently are Ipsos-Reid, which had a heavy Conservative lean before, Harris-Decima, and Leger. I could see Leger being the case, and perhaps Harris-Decima. Not Ipsos.

If the Liberals and BQ abstain from voting, how would the CPC vote them down considering they would have less seats? Oh, and then the GG would be required to ask the Liberals to attempt to form a government. They would fail, and then by rule the GG would have to ask the Bloc, who would also fail, then the Green, who would fail. Then another election.

Seriously, enough with Bob Rae. The NDP have had plenty of successful provincial governments outside of Bob Rae, and Bob Rae is a liberal.

I'd put Iggy a number 1. He is beyond hysterical at this point.

I take it time left you back about a week and a half ago?

I just have to laugh at this. It's a redux of the 1990 Ontario election with respect to arrogance. At onset, the CPC was arrogant and knew/thought that they would coast to a majority government. The LPC was arrogant that they were the only way they could stop Harper and the CPC (I can't stop thinking about the related low-brow attack that Iggy launched at Layton in the English debate). Well look what happens when two parties are so arrogant and busy with fighting each other that they forget that the Canadian people are tired of it. Throw in the 20 years of Bloquiste separation talk and no action/change from them, and it's the perfect fuel for the Orange Wave!

It's not stopping!

Yeah, the youth in Quebec are smarter than their parents' and grandparents' generations. The Bloc's general refusal to participate well in social networking too (I listened to this on CBC Radio 1 yesterday) isn't helping. The youth are driving the future for Quebec, and it's looking quite grim for the Bloc and Parti.

Sadly, it's clear you don't understand what is happening in Canada right now.

I would bet more likely on a split. Right leaning ones to Tories, left leaning ones to NDP, centre ones will be split. They don't have a strong leader to take the entire caucus to one or the other.

Eric at 308 has been constantly poo-pooing this, and his model has already been shown to be way off when compared to actual riding polls in Quebec (I believe his NDP numbers were 10% off). That is terrible, and his model is aiming towards being way, way off on election night. The ADQ were not well organized... the NDP in Ontario or Nova Scotia weren't as well organized either, but what happened?

Because the current system is working out so well for us? We can't fix our system unless we start trying different things. This is what I want to do. Also, no, that is not accurate.

This entire rant sounds like you are just bitter that your side is going to lose. Don't be so sure on that last part. The NDP has the most ideal platform for Quebecers.... liberal, left-wing, environmentalist, supporting arts/education, etc. etc. This is easily something that can stick, especially if the NDP starts to try to redevelop its provincial party there. If that happens, the PQ needs to watch out.

People like you need to realize that while a third party surge can split a vote, when the surge hits a critical point, it suddenly results in a massive amount of seats. That's where the NDP is at now. It's in first place in Quebec. It is no longer splitting votes.

Sometimes I wish they wouldn't combine provinces, but understand why they do so. I'm willing to bet that the NDP is first in Manitoba and Nova Scotia, and running well in NL. I still believe that a lot of the Tory support comes in areas where they are already strong.

Wow... Ontario might finally be moving in the last week! Final results: CPC 34 NDP 34 LPC 18 BQ 5 GR 7 Could you imagine a final result where the CPC and NDP are tied for a plurality? Talk about a crazy situation for Canada, the Libs, BQ, and EMay.

But...but... Bob Rae!

Fifth- every English Canadian gets sold as slaves to Americans. Sixth- before they are sold, they must get whipped by alien pink unicorns.

Flaherty will be caretaker until Wall resigns premiership and enters federal politics.

Poor Gilles. He's only going to have 15 seats when this election is over... which may easily not be including his own.

Just a rough estimate, but with numbers like that, we would probably be looking at this: CPC: 129 NDP: 111 LPC: 52 BQ: 15 GRN: 1