nittanylionstorm07

For some reason, they left the Prairies out of the recent poll release graphs. The NDP had been performing well in SK/MB and has a chance to grab another seat in AB.

Bob Rae is a Liberal.

The conservative mindset worldwide is based on fear.

He's right, though, when he says the current situation can't last forever. At least the Liberals would be out of the picture?

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/26/cv-election-constitution-042611.html Very interesting. He's smart in saying that waiting until conditions are right are good... I would hope that this would include restarting the Quebec provincial NDP and shoring up support there prior to the next Quebec election. Quebec wants Charest gone, but Marois is their only other real choice...and a terrible one at that. Having her head Quebec and reopening the Constitution would be a disaster. See edit reply later in thread.

I just had a thought. What about a complete destruction/split in the Liberals with left leaning Liberals supporting the NDP and right supporting the Tories? That's not a complete impossibility since the Libs have no good leader that could round the troops together to support one or the other.

Keep in mind the terrible last week that Clegg had of the UK campaign. It's no surprise that he finished third after that lousy performance. We'll have to see if Layton will be able carry the momentum through this last week up until May 2 unlike Clegg... so far, Layton is doing a pretty good job. The polling companies know and understand this. That's why results typically aren't far off from the polling percentages. Look at 2008, they weren't WAY OFF like you seem to imply they are going to be. It's the youth, not the left, who have dismal turnout rates. Usually this is taken into account considering that most pollsters aren't polling loads of youth. The Liberals are in a lose/lose situation. If they support the NDP, they look to be in a permanent third place position. If they support the Tories, then the entire point of the campign of "Vote for us to prevent Harper from getting a majority" will be thrown out the window, and they'll likely lose all of their remaining left-of-centre ridings in Ontario to the NDP.

Interesting on the new EKOS poll (which btw, was polling that ended yesterday...different from the EKOS released last night): http://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Slide021.jpg Graphic that shows "All Decided Voters" vs. "Only those Absolutely Certain to Vote"... NDP way ahead of Libs on the latter, and Cons at 35.3 makes a bit more sense. Also, NDP still surging in Atlantic Canada!

There has been no NDP government federally, so how could you compare them? So far, Jack Layton has made more sense than any of the other party leaders in this campaign. lol @ "cliche socialist thing to do"... I'm sorry, I'm not the one basing my entire point on assuming that all voters for one party act the same way, and that it's impossible! for them to change their minds to the dominant other party.

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Canada_1988_Federal_Election.svg They are capable of changing. I'm just saying it is terrible logic to assume that since someone has voted for the Tories, it's impossible for them to switch to the NDP. Not everyone who has voted for the Tories is hardcore blue kool-aid drinking CPC member.

Another EKOS poll out CPC 33.9 NDP 27.9 LPC 24.0 BQ 6.0 GRN 6.8 OTH 1.4

Canada can blame the PCs for the fact that the Bloc was the official opposition for a while, though... the only party that has enabled separatists into some sort of power position federally.

Terrible logic. Based on that, Saskatchewan should have never had an NDP government since they are mostly voting Tory now.

That's why the 25th Prime Minister of Canada will be Brad Wall. Swings always happen.

lol @ Tories and hardcore Liberal supporters still downplaying the NDP surge. It's like a ship sinking and the captain and crew report that nothing's wrong with the ship.

Oh please. If Harper did that, he will lose the confidence of the Canadian people entirely.

Layton would probably convince the GG to call another election since Harper promised not to form a coalition (paraphrasing). Then Layton would win a majority government.

lol if they did, the Tories would be destroyed in the next election.

Unfortunately for you, I'm a fan of tax and pay down the debts while maintaining a decent social safety net that prevent poor people from falling victim to economic crises. Martin is probably one of the best finance ministers Canada has ever had. Harper undid a lot of what he did.

Oooh... look at this party ceiling graphic: http://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/04/Slide07.jpg

I would say that about the Reps in 2008, but not the Dems in 2010. I still don't think they campaigned at all last year. I am a Democrat, but I wish I had an NDP party I could support.

Holy carp. I will say I looked at the last election results vs. polls, and EKOS in 2008 was CPC -2.8 LPC +0.2 NDP +1.2 BQ -0.2 GRN +2.8, so they are fairly accurate.

If there is one thing right wing Cons and left wing NDPers can agree on, it's that the Liberals are making about as much sense right now as moving a hockey team to a desert.

Layton needs to make one last push in Toronto. If he does that, he will have quite a solid representation in the 41st Parliament.

Conservatives just don't understand that paying more taxes that help ensure financial stability and solid services for the people is better than the absolute chaos that results from no regulation, no/low taxes, and trusting the private sector.