nittanylionstorm07

Weird... comparing the 04/19 numbers to 04/20, it seems like they managed to get a higher conservative and undecided sampling in 4/20. Doesn't flow with other trends.

That's two polls now showing NDP in second and a Bloc vote of 6% nationally. Con %age is ridiculously high.

Remember, that is only an estimate based off of previous elections and vote to seat trends. The NDP have never been a factor in Quebec, and this is likely to throw the seat projections off by quite a bit in Quebec.

That would only make sense if the NDP vote was only comprised of shifted Bloc votes when in fact the Liberals are now in the trash can in favor of the NDP as well, and the Cons have also dropped. The New NDP vote is a combination of votes from all places (previous NDP included, of course).

You are extremely underestimating the seat swing on all fronts. Quebec is about to be painted orange. The NDP is sharply on the rise in liberal areas of BC. Nova Scotia is going to go orange, and NL will see at least one seat go orange... NB is in play as well. The Prairies-AB are showing a nicely sized uptick in NDP support with them trailing the Cons only slightly, and Alberta has them as the second party. Ontario is the only one where the outcome is really unknown at this point, but they are moving. NDP could be looking at least at 85-95 seats. The Bloc could be down to 25-35 seats, and the Libs are going to be thrashing in the 50s or 60s (if they are lucky). We're looking at something around 130 CPC, 90 NDP, 55 Lib, 32 Bloc, 1 G The Conservatives are meaningless in Quebec now. You can't say they are becoming "increasingly safer" as their support keeps dropping. The NDP are by far the most popular party in the province now. You don't win 2 seats with a plurality of votes at 36%, especially considering Montreal is polling in the 40s for NDP support.

The only reason Iggy says he wants a coalition now is because he sees the Libs dropping to third place, and it would be the only way they have any sort of voice in the 41st Parliament.

I'd like to see another Angus Reid poll since they were most accurate last time. Seems like NDP is on the move quite fast right now.

What would they honestly do to private Canadian citizens tweeting things of the sort... tear down the door like some sort of Chinese secret police force?

Weren't the Cons the ones behind legislation preventing results from getting to the media until some ridiculous time?

You have one of the worst cases of denial I have ever seen.

If I was Canadian, I'd be super proud right now to be a member of the NDP.

That forum poll is crazy! I think it is now safe to say that the Libs are going to be dumped to third place.

Raising taxes nationally is not the same as raising taxes provincially or locally. If you cancel free trade agreements and raise taxes federally, it's a lot more difficult for corporations to move as compared to raising taxes provincially where it's a lot easier to just move over to the next province.

Are you denying that the agenda put forth by the PQ at their convention was radical beyond imagination? You do realize that the younger generation in Quebec- anglo and franco- generally oppose separation from Canada unlike the older generation? ...and that agenda could have sparked the youth into action to vote against separatist ideals?

How much do you think the Parti Quebecois convention where Marois was resoundingly endorsed as leader and a severely radical agenda was released affected the Bloc in federal polling? Remember, this agenda amounted to support of an authoritarian system against anglophone business people and francophone students. It hasn't been mentioned much, but I believe this agenda being tied to separatism which is tied to the BQ has hindered the BQ extensively in polling and has helped the NDP, which has values the majority of Quebecois hold.

The NDP is about to ride the Quebec horse to power (after voting out the Cons in the throne speech of course). You can see it from a mile away. Props for Layton for having one of... if not the most brilliant election strategy in Canadian history.

It's possible only theoretically... Just like the bloc was the Opposition when the PCs collapsed... However, the NDP and Libs both know that would be the worst decision ever.

lol Conservatives- we must fight authoritarian rule! (Unless we're in control, of course!)

Stop right there. There are ALWAYS "Many voters" who do not like the outcome of any election. That is one of the worst arguments I have ever seen.

The majority of Canadians want Harper out... that much has already been said in polling. Cons need to stop confusing "plurality" with "majority"... it's quite irritating.

Regardless what the Tories say, the GG will be required to defer to the second party and allow them to try to form a government if the CPC is defeated at the throne speech.

True. If they oppose everything the Libs/NDP put forward, they are giving legitimacy to the Bloc.

Answer me this: how many times has Harper, in the last 5 years, relied on Bloc support to pass things? I can guarantee you it is a lot more than zero. Also, let's not forget about how he was going trying to go into coalition with the Bloc before 2006.

First, it depends on how many seats the CPC loses and the NDP/Libs gain. Second, your argument can easily be turned around. The CPC in government would need the support of the Libs, NDP, or Bloc to pass bills... yes, of course the Libs/NDP would need the support of the CPC or Bloc to pass bill. Since the Libs/NDP and Cons are equally likely to support each other's bills in Parliament considering their position on issues. Neither solution for a government will be able to limit the Bloc's influence since the Bloc will be required to act if the government does not get the support of the opposition. That's how Canada's Parliament works. The argument that somehow the Libs and NDP are more malleable because they are two separate parties is irrelevant since they both strongly oppose Harper.

To me it looks like this: BC: NDP vs. split between Libs/CPC (mostly Libs), Inland Rural areas CPC vs. NDP AB: CPC stronghold SK: Rural CPC stronghold; Urban CPC vs. NDP MB: Rural CPC stronghold; Urban CPC vs. split NDP/Libs (trending to mostly NDP) ON: CPC vs. Libs, NDP vs. Libs in select liberal urban centres QC: Bloc vs. NDP NB, PEI, NL: CPC vs. Libs/NDP split (mostly Libs) NS: CPC vs. NDP YK/NT/NU: 3-way race, with Libs leading YK and NU and NDP leading NT.