nittanylionstorm07

Perhaps, but it certainly isn't looking good... not to mention that they have no one decent to follow Iggy.

http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/04/drip-drip-drip-conservatives-and-ndp.html

Wouldn't it be great if the last days of this election were dominated by the NDP surge and Liberals tearing down Iggy? Say goodbye to the LPC!

Did you read at all how his projections are produced? The seat change for the NDP are barely registering because it is built into his model that it waits for a decent trend before it really begins to move... that means the latest polls with the NDP above the Liberals pretty much have no effect on his model regardless of how good the poll is... he even says in a post that it wouldn't be until late next week (!) until the seat projection could be ironed out with this new dynamic if it remains consistent. If this trend continues until May 2nd, his projection could be off by a week's estimate. That's a lot.

That makes more sense than yesterday's poll where there was that small "blip" across the charts against the NDP and for the Cons (too much Con sampling in that day's poll?). That poll is still in the three-day rotation until tomorrow though, and it'll be interesting to see how much it goes back up then.

British Columbia, Alberta (although only minimally), Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and the Maritimes all have Tory to NDP areas with BC, MB, NS, and certain QC areas being the most pronounced. That 37.8%, which btw, has been in a steady decline from past polls, is not even close to being a majority.

Way to twist what I said completely. It's okay to use past results as long as they and current polls can be understood in context. Remember... NOTHING LIKE THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE IN CANADIAN ELECTION HISTORY. So, naturally, this would mean that a new dynamic will be found in the results of seats. If, national percentage wise, the distribution is roughly 36-38% CPC/27-29% NDP/18-20% LIB/5-7% BQ like it's headed towards, there is absolutely no way the Liberals will be the second place party at all.. and there is no way the NDP will only grab "a couple of seats" like delusional Tory/Lib supports insist. There is also no way the Tories form a majority. Why? Distribution of seats. Most of the Tories' support is coming from stronghold Inland BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and rural Manitoba seats. Most of the Liberals' support is coming from Ontario. Everything else, the NDP is showing strength in which proves that this election will introduce a new wave of politics to Canada that will potentially blow out preexisting notions of election/seat distribution.

All of these delusional Tory and Lib supporters don't seem to understand that once the NDP breaks a certain threshold and the Libs drop below another one, it becomes meaningless to try to use past results of vote splitting/spreading to justify a Tory majority. Quebec is about to be painted orange. The Atlantic provinces, SK/MB, and BC are showing a huge upsurge in the NDP with the NDP fighting tooth and nail with the Tories. Alberta should see one more Tory seat swing to the NDP. Only Ontario is the last bastion of the Liberals' support, and the NDP is chipping away at that by the day.

Recent polls meaning solely the Ipsos which has a bad history of having high Conservative numbers? Because that's the only one that's like that.

Nice! The NDP is running the most brilliant campaign in Canadian history at this point.

I can't get over the vocal minority of hard-headed Liberal supporters out there who still think the NDP are nothing, that Jack will never amount to anything, etc. etc. when Iggy has basically destroyed the Liberal party. At this point, I'm wondering if the Liberals may be having their Kim Campbell moment. On the other hand, Ontario may just save them from that.

It was only a matter of time before this happened... but it is clear that nationally, the NDP is not only hammering at the Liberals and Bloc, but they are also bleeding support away from the Tories! http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/story/2011/04/22/cv-election-goodfriday.html These types of ads should just further show how legitimate the NDP is, and they'll probably gain even more votes.

Weren't some more polls supposed to come out today? I remember CROP, and maybe Leger?

Governing in Alberta is not the same as governing Federally. First, the federal government does not hold the same positions as the Albertan government on many things. Second, by convention, if a party is in charge consistently for 40 years, sometime before year 40, they will have already made all the changes to government they can/want to make, and therefore they would be able to sit on their thumbs with respect to changing anything until the populace gets frustrated of that aspect (see Wildrose Alliance).

Thanks, though that's a weird website. I edited Alberta down to 51/13/22/16 and it still shows all seats going to the CPC. Then for fun, I gave all of the votes to the NDP and it still shows the CPC with 19 seats versus the NDP with 8 and the GRN with 1 lol. I edited my above seat totals to include Lizzie May, who I forgot about. I still think she'll win Saanich.

I just don't see anyone that could possibly bring the Libs out from where they are heading... and that's perpetual third party status. Trudeau, maybe... he's attractive to younger voters, but the keys to Parliament for the Libs lie in Ontario and Quebec. Quebec still hates the Libs because of the other Trudeau and Chretien, though he could probably salvage Montreal if the NDP doesn't get too entrenched. Brison is interesting but could turn off the leftists that are bleeding over to the NDP, as well as Quebec.

It will probably be Justin Trudeau vs. Bob Rae with younger Libs going for Trudeau and older ones going for Rae.

I dunno... I think I'm gonna go with this, also from Michael Ignatieff:

Exactly. I've seen many hardcore Tory supporters say they'd vote for the NDP if that assured the Bloc would go away.

The trend this year is obviously different to everyone but those who are hard set biased against the NDP.

This is based on regional polls, not riding polls, that have come out over the past week then extrapolating the pattern. There could be some error in NL, yes, but that error could be canceled out in ON or BC.

By province/territory: NL: CPC: 2 LPC: 2 NDP: 3 NS: CPC: 3 LPC: 2 NDP: 6 PE: CPC: 1 LPC: 2 NDP: 1 NB: CPC: 4 LPC: 2 NDP: 4 QC: CPC: 4 LPC: 1 NDP: 41 BQ: 29 ON: CPC: 42 LPC: 43 NDP: 21 MB: CPC: 5 LPC: 0 NDP: 9 SK: CPC: 12 LPC: 0 NDP: 2 AB: CPC: 26 LPC: 0 NDP: 2 BC: CPC: 18 LPC: 2 NDP: 15 GRN: 1 YK: CPC: 0 LPC: 1 NDP: 0 NT: CPC: 0 LPC: 0 NDP: 1 NU: CPC: 0 LPC: 1 NDP: 0 TOTAL: CPC: 117 LPC: 56 NDP: 105 GRN: 1 BQ: 29 I forgot about Lizzy May! This was done using current trends in polling regionally (taken out to election day AND considering the soft/hard supporters for each party.) When you look at it like this, it gets quite interesting.

Bump. I watched the online interview that Stroumboulopoulos had with her... and she seemed very, very, very much like Hillary Clinton's doppelganger. Looks and sounds like her and has similar belief sets. It was ridiculous.

23rd Prime Minister of Canada- Jack Layton 24th Prime Minister of Canada- Thomas Mulclair

I have never heard of that. There is a very different dynamic in the US as opposed to Canada.