US Economy UNSTOPABLE.

[gatomontes99]

20 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. The post has been updated by the time you saw it. 

2. So if my profit margins fall from 200% to 100%, it's not worth doing business right?

 

Not enough information to make a judgement. What is replacement cost? How much capital is needed for the next project? 

 

[Michael Hardner]

46 minutes ago, gatomontes99 said:

Not enough information to make a judgement. What is replacement cost? How much capital is needed for the next project? 

 

Agreed.

So this is now withdrawn:

"Less profit? Then how would they have the operating capital to start their next project? "

[gatomontes99]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

Agreed.

So this is now withdrawn:

"Less profit? Then how would they have the operating capital to start their next project? "

No. Less profit equals less operating capital for the next project. I know the left loves to run around and say "we need less billionaires!" But, quite honestly, we wouldn't have smart phones, self driving electric cars, private space flights, commercial jets, etc etc etc without billionaires. It takes big money to do big things. 

[Michael Hardner]

On 7/31/2025 at 9:34 PM, gatomontes99 said:

No. Less profit equals less operating capital for the next project. I know the left loves to run around and say "we need less billionaires!" But, quite honestly, we wouldn't have smart phones, self driving electric cars, private space flights, commercial jets, etc etc etc without billionaires. It takes big money to do big things. 

You're oversimplifying and muddling the business case in one case and not the other.

[gatomontes99]

27 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

You're oversimplifying and muddling the business case in one case and not the other.

No. I'm just speaking in generalities because we are talking about theoretical results for hypothetical situations. 

[robosmith]

On 7/30/2025 at 12:08 PM, paxamericana said:

Simple, so it can do even better. Rates are just a speed dial the feds have for economic activity, lower rates to speed up economic activity, high rates to slow it down.

So contrary to what you are insinuating, rates do not actually control inflation. It slow down demand. The real way to control inflation is lower input cost like energy. 

The thing that you don't understand is there are limits on how fast the economy can grow.

When there is excess capacity of resources, you can increase demand without significant inflation.

When you're at the edge of max capacity, the cost of increased demand starts to sky rocket because increasing capacity is much more expensive than utilizing excess capacity. Especially for labor when you're clamping down on immigration.

[Shady]

😂😂😂

 

[paxamericana]

22 minutes ago, Shady said:

😂😂😂

 

Greatest president! Trump’s team of 5 blokes is winning against 10000 phd know it all @robosmith.

Edited August 12, 2025 by paxamericana

[robosmith]

58 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

Greatest president! Trump’s team of 5 blokes is winning against 10000 phd know it all @robosmith.

Tariff disaster yet to come because TACO. 

[Barquentine]

On 7/30/2025 at 4:59 PM, paxamericana said:

No, we’re going to have robots make it here.

https://www.economicliberties.us August 1, 2025
American Manufacturing Employment Has Declined by 10,000 Jobs During the Past Six Months.
American Manufacturing Activity Declined by $202.3 Million in First Six Months of 2025 Compared to First Half of 2024, U.S. Census Data Show.

[paxamericana]

3 minutes ago, Barquentine said:

by 10,000 Jobs During the Past Six Months.

We’re a country of 330 million. That’s not even a drop in the proverbial bucket. That’s a rounding error on a good day. 

[Barquentine]

2 minutes ago, paxamericana said:

That’s a rounding error on a good day. 

No, it's a trend.

[paxamericana]

2 minutes ago, Barquentine said:

No, it's a trend.

Down from 12760000………  that’s like a third of Canada.

Edited August 12, 2025 by paxamericana

[LinkSoul60]

11 minutes ago, Barquentine said:

https://www.economicliberties.us August 1, 2025
American Manufacturing Employment Has Declined by 10,000 Jobs During the Past Six Months.
American Manufacturing Activity Declined by $202.3 Million in First Six Months of 2025 Compared to First Half of 2024, U.S. Census Data Show.

The people who put this data together must have their asses fired out the door immediately...   This doesn't align with Trump's narrative that he's been responsible for the best 6 months ever in the history of the US, and the world.  Nobody thought it could be done but he's done it. They've never seen anything like it....  

The US economy lost 2.7M jobs (178K manufacturing jobs) during his first term so he's got a ways to go to get there this time around.  He's as dumb as a bag of nails so I'm not betting against him besting the job losses from his first term.

[Shady]

3 hours ago, robosmith said:

Tariff disaster yet to come because TACO. 

Month number 7 since you people have predicted economic disaster.  When are you going to admit that you might have been wrong?  Or at least made it overblown?

[robosmith]

9 minutes ago, Shady said:

Month number 7 since you people have predicted economic disaster.  When are you going to admit that you might have been wrong?  Or at least made it overblown?

Because Trump can't make up his mind. TACO!

[Shady]

8 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Because Trump can't make up his mind. TACO!

That’s not true.  If that were true, there wouldn’t have been 150+ billion dollars in tariff revenue collected so far.  Regardless, the only country that still enjoys a reprieve is China.

[robosmith]

7 minutes ago, Shady said:

That’s not true.  If that were true, there wouldn’t have been 150+ billion dollars in tariff revenue collected so far.  Regardless, the only country that still enjoys a reprieve is China.

And China DWARFS all the rest except Mexico and Canada.

[CdnFox]

All of this is premature. As I said at the very beginning when trump first took office we won't have any clue about the real effects of any of this stuff until at least the third quarter. And given some of the delays even that might be optimistic we may not really see what's happening until the end of the fourth quarter or beginning of the next one. 

Economies, especially ones as big as the US, turn like oil tankers not speed boats. Changes made today take 6 months to show up in the economy in a serious way for the most part. Which means trump's first three months in office won't really be reflected by anything until the Third quarter and even then he didn't do an awful lot in the way of trade during that time, it was mostly threats.

Time will tell but it seems like some of you people think that if trump makes an announcement today it's reflected thoroughly in the economy tomorrow and that's just not how economics work. Hopefully by Christmas we'll have some real numbers and we can take a look at what's going on. At the moment there are some signs that trump's economy will be resilient regardless of the tariffs and there are some signs that there are weaknesses which may develop into more serious problems. Both sides seem to be seizing on the ones they like and using them to declare victory over the other. Too soon to say

[Shady]

1 hour ago, robosmith said:

And China DWARFS all the rest except Mexico and Canada.

China dwarfs the EU?  Get a clue.

[Chrissy1979]

12 hours ago, Shady said:

That’s not true.  If that were true, there wouldn’t have been 150+ billion dollars in tariff revenue collected so far.  Regardless, the only country that still enjoys a reprieve is China.

You realize you are no longer a conservative, right? You’re cheering for high taxes snd government intervention in every aspect of people’s lives.

 

Just so you know.

[LinkSoul60]

Manufacturing activity slows....  wonder why?  

Stockpiling of materials and components just delays impact of tariffed product and hit to American's wallets....but it's coming.

U.S. manufacturing slowdown drives drop in global supply chain activity

Aug. 13, 2025 9:17 AM ETThe Industrial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLI)By: Rob Williams, SA News Editor

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Global supply chain activity contracted in July as U.S. manufacturers sharply reduced purchases of materials and components after stockpiling in June ahead of the expiration of a “tariff pause,” according to the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.

 

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index fell in July (GEP, S&P Global)

 

The index fell to -0.35 from -0.17 in June, indicating greater spare capacity worldwide. North America saw one of the steepest declines, with its reading dropping to -0.33 from -0.06, reversing a sharp June uptick driven by front-loaded orders to sidestep potential tariff changes.

“When we remove companies’ front-loading inventories and rerouting goods to avoid tariffs, the underlying picture points to slowing manufacturing demand worldwide,” John Piatek, vice president of consulting at GEP, said in a statement. “The July data shows a clear pullback in orders, with U.S. manufacturers preparing for lower demand going forward.”

Regional trends

Asia’s purchasing activity stayed slightly below trend, with weakness in Japan and South Korea offsetting a rebound in China’s factory buying. Europe’s industrial recovery faltered, as its index dropped to -0.30 from 0.01, with Germany’s growth slowing. The U.K. posted a sharper contraction, with its reading falling to -0.58 from -0.41.

Category Insights

Inventory stockpiling eased, suggesting little concern over supply disruptions or price spikes. Labor capacity and transportation costs remained stable, showing no signs of inflationary pressure.

The GEP index, which is produced with S&P Global and is based on surveys of 27,000 companies in more than 40 countries, measures how much supply chain capacity is being used. Positive readings indicate stretched capacity, while negative figures show underutilization.

[Shady]

3 hours ago, Chrissy1979 said:

You realize you are no longer a conservative, right? You’re cheering for high taxes snd government intervention in every aspect of people’s lives.

 

Just so you know.

I find those labels somewhat irrelevant nowadays.  Regardless, I've already stated that I'm against broad based tariffs.  I'm simply stating that so far, Trump's economic experiment hasn't resulted in the doom and gloom that was predicted.  All while interest rates remain unusually high.

1 hour ago, LinkSoul60 said:

Manufacturing activity slows....  wonder why?  

Stockpiling of materials and components just delays impact of tariffed product and hit to American's wallets....but it's coming.

 

U.S. manufacturing slowdown drives drop in global supply chain activity

Aug. 13, 2025 9:17 AM ETThe Industrial Select Sector SPDR® Fund ETF (XLI)By: Rob Williams, SA News Editor

• 5

  Share
• Save
• Play(2min)
• Comment

  (1)

Global supply chain activity contracted in July as U.S. manufacturers sharply reduced purchases of materials and components after stockpiling in June ahead of the expiration of a “tariff pause,” according to the GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index.

 

GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index fell in July (GEP, S&P Global)

 

The index fell to -0.35 from -0.17 in June, indicating greater spare capacity worldwide. North America saw one of the steepest declines, with its reading dropping to -0.33 from -0.06, reversing a sharp June uptick driven by front-loaded orders to sidestep potential tariff changes.

“When we remove companies’ front-loading inventories and rerouting goods to avoid tariffs, the underlying picture points to slowing manufacturing demand worldwide,” John Piatek, vice president of consulting at GEP, said in a statement. “The July data shows a clear pullback in orders, with U.S. manufacturers preparing for lower demand going forward.”

Regional trends

Asia’s purchasing activity stayed slightly below trend, with weakness in Japan and South Korea offsetting a rebound in China’s factory buying. Europe’s industrial recovery faltered, as its index dropped to -0.30 from 0.01, with Germany’s growth slowing. The U.K. posted a sharper contraction, with its reading falling to -0.58 from -0.41.

Category Insights

Inventory stockpiling eased, suggesting little concern over supply disruptions or price spikes. Labor capacity and transportation costs remained stable, showing no signs of inflationary pressure.

The GEP index, which is produced with S&P Global and is based on surveys of 27,000 companies in more than 40 countries, measures how much supply chain capacity is being used. Positive readings indicate stretched capacity, while negative figures show underutilization.

Yes, there will definitely be an adjustment process.

[paxamericana]

1 hour ago, LinkSoul60 said:

Manufacturing activity slows....  wonder why?  

Stockpiling of materials and components just delays impact of tariffed product and hit to American's wallets....but it's coming.

Excellent article to back your claim of slowing but look, as I have said many times, Orange man is a stable genius. He see the same economic data and know when to back off. The primary goals of Trump’s tariff is to encourage capital investment inside the US, get Canada and whoever deserves it to bend the knee, raise government revenue. 

Edited August 13, 2025 by paxamericana

[LinkSoul60]

5 minutes ago, Shady said:

I find those labels somewhat irrelevant nowadays.  Regardless, I've already stated that I'm against broad based tariffs.  I'm simply stating that so far, Trump's economic experiment hasn't resulted in the doom and gloom that was predicted.  All while interest rates remain unusually high.

Agree... labels are irrelevant when policies impact everyone.  Country specific tariffs didn't go into full effect until August 7 and with companies stockpiling materials, the impact hasn't been seen yet with the materials/goods still not through the supply chain.  Also don't agree with the broad policy and like most have a vested interest in a stable economy so certainly not hoping for doom and gloom.  The net impact of tariff inflation aside, the longer term impact is the heavy hand with allies and trade partners that will be felt for years and decades to come as countries better diversify their trade.  Rates won't shake out until there is more clarity on tariff impact.....