New poll shows big CPC lead

[Kiraly]

I don't know why we're still arguing over poll results which historically aren't very accurate anyway.

...besides SES Research of course.

[shoop]

Polls matter for a number of reasons.

Not the least of which is media reaction and response to poll numbers.

Right now the trend to commentators reaction to the Government has been good job so far, but wait for that mistake.

If we can get through the summer and start strong in the fall it is very likely that it could become a given in Ottawa that the 2007 election will lead to a Conservative majority.

If we can only pick up a few more points in the polls....

[August1991]

Here's another report:

Decima put Conservative support for the period May 4-7 at 41 per cent nationally, the Liberals at 29, the NDP at 16 and the Bloc Quebecois at 10.

A Leger Marketing poll, also released Tuesday to The Canadian Press, found similar support in its May 2-7 survey. Leger pegged the Tories at 40 per cent nationally, followed by the Liberals at 30, New Democrats at 13, the Bloc at nine and the Green party at seven per cent.

In Quebec, where Harper has focused so much of his minority government's early energy in an effort to position it for a majority win in the next election, both Decima and Leger had more favourable news for the Conservatives.

Decima put the Bloc at 42 per cent in Quebec, the Tories at 28 and the Liberals at 17.

Leger's Quebec numbers: Bloc 36 per cent; Tories 29; Liberals 22.

The Leger poll involved 1,503 Canadians and is considered accurate within 2.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The Decima survey had 1,008 respondents and an accuracy of plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times in 20.

"It's a real honeymoon between Canadians and Stephen Harper," said Jean-Marc Leger, president of Leger Marketing, who believes the numbers would have translated into a Tory majority government had an election been held during the polling period.

"With that kind of result, he could start to think about having an election here in Canada because he could win a majority government."

The Leger poll suggested 62 per cent of Canadians were satisfied with the Harper government, while 27 per cent were dissatisfied - and that the highest satisfaction levels were in Alberta (77 per cent) and Quebec (72 per cent).

CP

In the Jan 2006 election, the Quebec vote was BQ 41, CPC 24, Lib 20. A slight change but if it remains, I think this will give the Tories a majority because of the bootstrap effect in the rest of Canada.

[shoop]

I don't know why we're still arguing over poll results which historically aren't very accurate anyway.

...besides SES Research of course.

... and SES just came out with its newest poll.

CPC 38%

LPC 28%

NDP 19%

BQ 9%

Green 7%

With the CPC leading in every region, except Quebec. The party is only two points behind the BQ in Quebec.

Things are looking very good...

[gc1765]

It seems that according to this poll liberal support has dropped, though not by as much as it may seem.

Almost everyone seems to forget that just days before the election, polls were indicating 41-42 percent for the conservatives, yet they only recieved 36 percent of the vote. The moral of the story is that a poll is NOT an election. There are probably many reasons for this, here are but two:

1) the undecided vote. The liberals are generally in the middle of the political spectrum. The strongly right-wing and strongly left wing people have probably already made up their mind that they are going to vote for the conservatives and the liberals, respectively. The undecided vote is generally somewhere in the middle, and on election day many of those votes go to the liberals.

2) the liberals were previously in power. A lot of people don't like to admit that they will vote liberal, mainly because of the sponsorship fiasco. So in a poll, they will be more reluctant to admit their support for the liberals. This could be seen before the election as well. In many ridings where the liberals won, there were actually more conservative lawn signs around. This also goes to show that many (not all) liberal supporters are not 'proud' supporters but believe that they are better than the alternatives.

P.S. here is a poll published jan 18, 2006 http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/stor...me=election2006

[shoop]

That is the reason why SES polls have so much respect.

The last SES poll published before the election missed all the major party votes by exactly 0.1%.

www.sesresearch.com

They also did well in 2004.

So pointing to a less accurate pollster to support your assertion that SES is off the mark is pretty weak.

It seems that according to this poll liberal support has dropped, though not by as much as it may seem.

Almost everyone seems to forget that just days before the election, polls were indicating 41-42 percent for the conservatives, yet they only recieved 36 percent of the vote.

[gc1765]

Shoop:

I was referring to the poll that was the topic of this thread, which was the environics research group poll putting the conservatives at 41% and liberals at 22%.

SES puts the conservatives at 38% and liberals at 28% which narrows the gap considerably, much like the difference between most polls and the election. Perhaps SES is just a more accurate poll....or maybe because it was done the day before the election most of those undecided people had made up their mind?

[shoop]

My guess is that SES is more accurate.

In the days before the election SES consistently had the Conservative support level lower than many of the other major polls.

Shoop:

I was referring to the poll that was the topic of this thread, which was the environics research group poll putting the conservatives at 41% and liberals at 22%.

SES puts the conservatives at 38% and liberals at 28% which narrows the gap considerably, much like the difference between most polls and the election. Perhaps SES is just a more accurate poll....or maybe because it was done the day before the election most of those undecided people had made up their mind?

[Kiraly]

The moral of the story is that a poll is NOT an election. There are probably many reasons for this, here are but two:

1) the undecided vote. The liberals are generally in the middle of the political spectrum. The strongly right-wing and strongly left wing people have probably already made up their mind that they are going to vote for the conservatives and the liberals, respectively. The undecided vote is generally somewhere in the middle, and on election day many of those votes go to the liberals.

2) the liberals were previously in power. A lot of people don't like to admit that they will vote liberal, mainly because of the sponsorship fiasco. So in a poll, they will be more reluctant to admit their support for the liberals. This could be seen before the election as well. In many ridings where the liberals won, there were actually more conservative lawn signs around. This also goes to show that many (not all) liberal supporters are not 'proud' supporters but believe that they are better than the alternatives.

P.S. here is a poll published jan 18, 2006

Some good points.

Some others:

NDP seems to always poll higher than what they actually receive at the ballot box. Primary cause in my opinion is many NDP supporters vote Liberal in an attempt to prevent the Conservatives from gaining power.

Liberal support right now is likely to remain understated until their leadership convention. They don't have a leader so I would expect their polling numbers to be on the low side.

[shoop]

On the flip side the Liberals are staying in the news with almost daily stories about the leadership race...

Liberal support right now is likely to remain understated until their leadership convention. They don't have a leader so I would expect their polling numbers to be on the low side.

[Hicksey]

We've had this discussion already shoop. Getting over confident over polling numbers I think is a mistake because of several factors not the least of which is that polling rarely exposes true voter intent. Approving with Harper's conduct and achievements may not translate to a check beside CPC.

Harper's budget may as well have come from the Liberals. The only notable difference is that he spends MORE and gives it to people -- and then taxes it. We'd be better served with all that installed as a significant, permanent increase of our personal exemptions. I don't see what conservatives have to be real happy about. He's played it safe. Nothing controversial to scare away swing voters. He's nearly abandoned his base. I'd bet Harper's numbers will dip because in the near future because he'll lose(if not lost) the support of true-blue conservatives.

I don't know why we're still arguing over poll results which historically aren't very accurate anyway.

...besides SES Research of course.

... and SES just came out with its newest poll.

CPC 38%

LPC 28%

NDP 19%

BQ 9%

Green 7%

With the CPC leading in every region, except Quebec. The party is only two points behind the BQ in Quebec.

Things are looking very good...

[August1991]

By the same poll, the Tories are leading in the Maritimes too:

Le Parti conservateur domine également dans les provinces maritimes, avec 37 pour cent d'appuis, contre 34 pour cent pour le Parti libéral.

La Presse

[shoop]

I apologize. I didn't realize that you saying something, without proof or support, constituted a discussion and automatically closed the subject for future consideration.

The poll wasn't an approve/disapprove question. It was a vote intent question.

We've had this discussion already shoop. Getting over confident over polling numbers I think is a mistake because of several factors not the least of which is that polling rarely exposes true voter intent. Approving with Harper's conduct and achievements may not translate to a check beside CPC.

[Hicksey]

Well, for one it was an opinion. Next, if you haven't forgotten 2004, it is supported.

I apologize. I didn't realize that you saying something, without proof or support, constituted a discussion and automatically closed the subject for future consideration.

The poll wasn't an approve/disapprove question. It was a vote intent question.

We've had this discussion already shoop. Getting over confident over polling numbers I think is a mistake because of several factors not the least of which is that polling rarely exposes true voter intent. Approving with Harper's conduct and achievements may not translate to a check beside CPC.

[shoop]

I dug back and found the SES Research results from 2004. They came the closest to calling the big Liberal surge at the end of 2004. The did call a Liberal minority. Only missed the CPC vote by 0.4%. 2004 Polling Results

Where is your support?

Well, for one it was an opinion. Next, if you haven't forgotten 2004, it is supported.

[Hicksey]

You just supplied it. I wasn't necessarily questioning the results of the poll as it pertained to the CPC, but overall. It doesn't matter whose voting intentions they miss if you lose does it? That may very well be accurate as far as CPC support is concerned. But people shuffle back and forth between the Liberals and NDP about as often as they change their underwear. And if enough shuffle to the Liberals, what happens then?

In this country, my feeling is that relying on polls is not a good idea. About the only thing I think they are good for is to get peoples' views on specific issues.

I dug back and found the SES Research results from 2004. They came the closest to calling the big Liberal surge at the end of 2004. The did call a Liberal minority. Only missed the CPC vote by 0.4%. 2004 Polling Results

Where is your support?

Well, for one it was an opinion. Next, if you haven't forgotten 2004, it is supported.

[shoop]

Are you drunk?

That doesn't make any sense at all.

Polling definitely helps. The key is be able to sift through the data and spot the trends.

Guaranteed that SES will have a lot of people listening to them during the election next year.

You just supplied it. I wasn't necessarily questioning the results of the poll as it pertained to the CPC, but overall. It doesn't matter whose voting intentions they miss if you lose does it? That may very well be accurate as far as CPC support is concerned. But people shuffle back and forth between the Liberals and NDP about as often as they change their underwear. And if enough shuffle to the Liberals, what happens then?

In this country, my feeling is that relying on polls is not a good idea. About the only thing I think they are good for is to get peoples' views on specific issues.

[betsy]

Polling does help...otherwise, why would they bother?

I would bet CPC...or any other major parties do their own. Would Harper gone through digging his heels and challenging the others with the budget? Would Diuseppe support the budget to prevent an election if the polls didn't show how the Tories surged in Quebec?

[Hicksey]

The moral of the story and also the reason why your proof also proves my POV is that no matter how happy you may be now, is that like 2004 those rosy poll results in the time leading up to the election can go to crap in little less than a weekend like they did then. Relying on them this far from an election is useless. Now, 8-12 months from now they might be relevant.

And even during the election they can go bad. Anyone watch the 2004 USPOTUS election exit polling?

Polling is only barely a better indicator than an educated guess. These days they're used to make news when there is none. And often today they are slanted towards a given result in an attempt to change public opinion. How else can you explain 3 or 4 pollsters sometimes 15% away from each other in their results? And different parties trumpetting different ones? When you see a poll think of the source, who is quoting that source and why they are trumpetting that particular poll over other similar polls with different results.

Please don't take this as an insult, but it has occurred to me that you may have less skepticism with the result because it says what you want and IMO that is not a good idea.

Are you drunk?

That doesn't make any sense at all.

Polling definitely helps. The key is be able to sift through the data and spot the trends.

Guaranteed that SES will have a lot of people listening to them during the election next year.

You just supplied it. I wasn't necessarily questioning the results of the poll as it pertained to the CPC, but overall. It doesn't matter whose voting intentions they miss if you lose does it? That may very well be accurate as far as CPC support is concerned. But people shuffle back and forth between the Liberals and NDP about as often as they change their underwear. And if enough shuffle to the Liberals, what happens then?

In this country, my feeling is that relying on polls is not a good idea. About the only thing I think they are good for is to get peoples' views on specific issues.

[shoop]

Puh lease.

With almost as good a first 100 days as could be hoped for, I definitely do not see the SES numbers as saying what I want.

I trust the SES poll and think "what more does Harper have to do?" I would be much happier to see the Government in the 40s and the Liberals in the mid to low 20s.

Please don't take this as an insult, but it has occurred to me that you may have less skepticism with the result because it says what you want and IMO that is not a good idea.

[Hicksey]

I think the days of conservatives polling in the 40's have past in Canada. Much too liberal a country. I think in the grande scheme of things that 38 is actually very good. I just don't trust things to stay that way. He's only where he is because he abandoned his base and went center on his budget. He does anything remotely conservative and the screams of scary Harper will once again be heeded.

His targetted vote buying is really no different than the Liberals promises for the government to provide the services. Either way we are much better served if the money isn't take in the first place.

Puh lease.

With almost as good a first 100 days as could be hoped for, I definitely do not see the SES numbers as saying what I want.

I trust the SES poll and think "what more does Harper have to do?" I would be much happier to see the Government in the 40s and the Liberals in the mid to low 20s.

Please don't take this as an insult, but it has occurred to me that you may have less skepticism with the result because it says what you want and IMO that is not a good idea.

[shoop]

Abandoned his base?

The budget delivers more tax cuts than the last FOUR Liberal budgets combined.

Any cries of abandoning the base are either wishful thinking on the part of opponents OR people who have an unrealistic view of what the party can do.

Tax cuts are vote buying?

How exactly did he abandon his base?

I think the days of conservatives polling in the 40's have past in Canada. Much too liberal a country. I think in the grande scheme of things that 38 is actually very good. I just don't trust things to stay that way. He's only where he is because he abandoned his base and went center on his budget. He does anything remotely conservative and the screams of scary Harper will once again be heeded.

His targetted vote buying is really no different than the Liberals promises for the government to provide the services. Either way we are much better served if the money isn't take in the first place.

[Hicksey]

Well, he abandoned everyone that had a controversial issue in mind. We know what two major issues those are.

And taxed tax cuts are a joke. We're better served for them to significantly raise the personal exemption. But they won't. How about killing the extra 1.5% excise tax on gasoline that was a "deficit buster"? There are many much more conservative ways to cut. His subisidies may as well be social programs for as much as he's spending on tax relief that won't really be noticed as much as it is taxed. The Liberals/NDP with their tax on taxes are bad enough, but now tax on tax cuts? In reality its a tax on handouts that are useless in the amounts given.

I've never seen so much ado about nothing. The 1% GST cut won't be really felt. The amounts he's handing out for various other causes are useless by the time they are taxed. Why bother? Its a waste of taxpayer money.

Try paying down the debt more, or paying the provinces enough so they can run balanced budgets again. The provincial and municipal tax increases that have come on the back of Martin and Chretien's mismanagement could have been ended through proper funding.

There are so many better places for that money that the places he put it. I don't see your rosy picture of the first 100 days. That budget was the hilight and all it was was an exercise in political expediency.

Abandoned his base?

The budget delivers more tax cuts than the last FOUR Liberal budgets combined.

Any cries of abandoning the base are either wishful thinking on the part of opponents OR people who have an unrealistic view of what the party can do.

Tax cuts are vote buying?

How exactly did he abandon his base?

I think the days of conservatives polling in the 40's have past in Canada. Much too liberal a country. I think in the grande scheme of things that 38 is actually very good. I just don't trust things to stay that way. He's only where he is because he abandoned his base and went center on his budget. He does anything remotely conservative and the screams of scary Harper will once again be heeded.

His targetted vote buying is really no different than the Liberals promises for the government to provide the services. Either way we are much better served if the money isn't take in the first place.

[Hicksey]

I don't mean to give you such a hard time about this.

I just fail to see how that poll says anything rosy. I fail to see how a poll like that means anything today because we are no closer than 180 days from an election at best and most likely 270 days or more.

What I do see is peoples' responses to these polls swinging all over the map according to what is going on in the news that day. As supporters of the CPC, we've seen a big lead like that evaporate within 72 hours in the not too distant past. I also see that while it notes that about 40% of people intend to vote CPC, 60% do not.

If we were in an election cycle and all parties were putting out their own agendas equally so that people were seeing more than just opposition from them I think we might have a little more relevant result.

There are a myriad of reasons why a in-term poll such as that you quoted should not be taken too seriously whether it looks good or bad for us.

Polling is not always the tool it is made out to be. We see it every day. Politicans usually poll heavily before new campaigns for/against issues to figure out which foot needs to be on what side of the fence and when. And it backfires as often as it works. Once a week we see such a politician wearing his foot as a dental accessory.

The main reason for the tangent I want on in my last post was my frustration with Harper. He talked about less government all campaign long and hasn't come close. All he's done in the budget is rearrange the Liberals spending patterns to suit his own purposes and switched their programs for his own that are designed to give the same handouts in a different fashion. He talked about accountability and integrity in government all campaign long and then opened with Emerson and Fortier. I know Rome cannot be reinvented in a day, but I expected better.

Perhaps I expected too much.

[Riverwind]

The main reason for the tangent I want on in my last post was my frustration with Harper. He talked about less government all campaign long and hasn't come close.

Patience. Radical change cannot happen overnight. Politicians that try are usually eviscerated by the special interests they take on. Furthermore, many Canadians simply do not want the radical downsizing of gov't that some on the right want. Harper must take these views into account because he is now the leader of all Canadians and not just the 30-35% that voted for him.