New poll shows big CPC lead

[normanchateau]

But you don't actually have a link to the full text of what Harper said, instead of a report on it, in those numerous URL's do you?

http://www.gowlings.com/resources/enewslet...060113c.en.html

What is your point? That those numerous URL's are a mass hallucination and Harper never made such a promise? Why do you suppose that people in his own party are trying to explain why he didn't honour this broken promise?

[shoop]

I'm hearing you don't have the link to the actual promise. You still haven't proven that *anyone* in the party talked about Harper breaking a promise, all you provided was a link of things from Garth's Web site that weren't in the budget.

You would be a little more credible if you provided a little fact to back up your assumptions and didn't ignore the facts others provide. Your silence on the capital gains exemption for fishers is deafening.

You only provided one URL were are the other ones that created the *numerous* URLs you found?

What is your point? That those numerous URL's are a mass hallucination and Harper never made such a promise? Why do you suppose that people in his own party are trying to explain why he didn't honour this broken promise?

[scribblet]

Considering that this is a minority gov't, and other party positions have to be considered, its a smart budget, he can't possibly expect to get everything he wants in the first budget, most reasonable people would know that. Harper cannot go right at it in the first budget if he wants his gov't to fail, all he can do is go slowly, until he wins a majority. He is following through on the 5 priorities promise.

Harper hits homerun with budget: Poll

A new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid found Canadians generally approved of the budget, but that reaction in Quebec was particularly favourable toward the Harper government and the budget it brought down this week. http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/st...12-dd31f1a6a5f3

[Kiraly]

New CTV Post Budget Poll

New CTV polls suggest Conservative support has fallen 4 points to 35.

Liberals and NDP both up two percentage points.

Conservatives: 35%

Liberals: 31%

NDP: 16%

Green: 9%

[normanchateau]

Considering that this is a minority gov't, and other party positions have to be considered, its a smart budget, he can't possibly expect to get everything he wants in the first budget, most reasonable people would know that. Harper cannot go right at it in the first budget if he wants his gov't to fail, all he can do is go slowly, until he wins a majority. He is following through on the 5 priorities promise.

Harper hits homerun with budget: Poll

A new poll conducted by Ipsos Reid found Canadians generally approved of the budget, but that reaction in Quebec was particularly favourable toward the Harper government and the budget it brought down this week. http://www.canada.com/globaltv/national/st...12-dd31f1a6a5f3

So Scriblett, are you saying that Harper never promised a capital gains tax deferral or are you saying that he did promise it and is saving it for another budget?

[shoop]

Interesting stat in that poll was 56% of respondents thought it was a good budget.

This is a good, but not great, poll for the CPC.

Once people have actually had the time to digest the influence of the budget measures opinions can only go up.

New CTV Post Budget Poll

New CTV polls suggest Conservative support has fallen 4 points to 35.

Liberals and NDP both up two percentage points.

Conservatives: 35%

Liberals: 31%

NDP: 16%

Green: 9%

[scribblet]

To my knowledge, it was not an actual campaign promise, it was a proposal and was badly received generally, not many people thought it was a wise move at the time, especially the liberals. So why would they want it now.

At least the CPC listened to the critics and advisors who thought it wasn't feasible. Whether they will implement it later if the money is there, I don't know.

[normanchateau]

New CTV Post Budget Poll

New CTV polls suggest Conservative support has fallen 4 points to 35.

Liberals and NDP both up two percentage points.

Conservatives: 35%

Liberals: 31%

NDP: 16%

Green: 9%

Kiraly, is there a regional breakdown? I assume CPC support is particularly low in BC where more people disapproved than approved of the federal budget. Apparently Quebecers loved the budget but this is not surprising. They already get subsidized child daycare throughout Quebec, thanks to their provincial government, and another $1200 a year per child on top of that from Harper. I wonder if this is a fiscal imbalance that Harper will address?

[Kiraly]

I know its only one poll (Strategic Council), but I'm still a little surprised by the numbers.

In my opinion, the first three months of the Conservative government has been good and productive. Yet, their support has decreased? The Liberals are leaderless. What happens when the Liberals select a leader?

If, as many people like to claim, most Canadians consider themselves to be at the centre of the political spectrum, then Conservative support should be on the rise - not on the decline.

Like I said, it is only one poll. I'll wait and see what other polling firms come up with.

[Kiraly]

Kiraly, is there a regional breakdown?

Not in the link I provided. The sample is only a 1,000 so a regional breakdown would likely not be very useful.

[normanchateau]

I know its only one poll (Strategic Council), but I'm still a little surprised by the numbers.

In my opinion, the first three months of the Conservative government has been good and productive. Yet, their support has decreased? The Liberals are leaderless. What happens when the Liberals select a leader?

If, as many people like to claim, most Canadians consider themselves to be at the centre of the political spectrum, then Conservative support should be on the rise - not on the decline.

Like I said, it is only one poll. I'll wait and see what other polling firms come up with.

I'm obviously not a big fan of Harper but I'm surprised that CPC is in decline and the Liberals are on the rise. I think that this is a chance finding based on one poll and won't be sustained in subsequent polls. The federal budget, while not reducing income taxes as most small "c" conservative economists would have preferred, nonetheless pandered to 27 or so special interest groups via tax credits, deductions, etc., so should have brought a huge increase in voter support from those easily bought.

[shoop]

This poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

If you look at the election results, the first Strategic Council poll and the second one they all lie within that margin of error.

People want to take some time to get to know their new Government. No reason for panic because of these results.

We all saw the chaotic and ruderless direction that the Martin government provided us as a result of being too poll-driven.

I know its only one poll (Strategic Council), but I'm still a little surprised by the numbers.

In my opinion, the first three months of the Conservative government has been good and productive. Yet, their support has decreased? The Liberals are leaderless. What happens when the Liberals select a leader?

If, as many people like to claim, most Canadians consider themselves to be at the centre of the political spectrum, then Conservative support should be on the rise - not on the decline.

Like I said, it is only one poll. I'll wait and see what other polling firms come up with.

[normanchateau]

No reason for panic because of these results.

No, reason to celebrate.

[shoop]

You would celebrate if these results held through to the next election? These numbers would lead to a slightly bigger CPC minority.

Have you changed your mind about our Government?

No, reason to celebrate.

[Kiraly]

I'm obviously not a big fan of Harper

The federal budget, while not reducing income taxes as most small "c" conservative economists would have preferred, nonetheless pandered to 27 or so special interest groups via tax credits, deductions, etc., so should have brought a huge increase in voter support from those easily bought.

Is this the word of the day. I could be wrong, but I don't recall your use of the word "pander" in describing any of the preceding governments programs for special interest groups.

I am curious to know who are the special interest groups being pandered to in this budget?

[shoop]

Hmmm, of the 29 targeted tax cuts let's look at the "special interest groups" that were pandered to.

Transit riders;

Students;

Tradespeople;

Seniors;

Parents of children under the age of six;

Anyone who pays the GST.

What a terrible, terrible man Harper was for pandering to such groups.

Is this the word of the day. I could be wrong, but I don't recall your use of the word "pander" in describing any of the preceding governments programs for special interest groups.

I am curious to know who are the special interest groups being pandered to in this budget?

[normanchateau]

You would celebrate if these results held through to the next election? These numbers would lead to a slightly bigger CPC minority.

No, reason to celebrate.

No, I certainly would not celebrate if these results held through to the next election. But a reported drop in CPC support to a mere 35% while the Liberals have yet to pick a leader, may be the beginning of a new trend. Having said that, I don't believe that the figure of 35% will hold up in other polls. It seems far too low...for now.

Harper's current popularity in Quebec, reminiscent of Mulroney's former popularity there, guarantees that he's probably not as low as 35%.

[shoop]

Thanks again Normie.

I really don't think the CPC is going to stress over a poll this early in the game. Harper has proven that he is good at thinking through the long-term. He is making the right moves to strengthen the base that appealed to him in January and build on his strength in Quebec.

If he can pick up another 20 seats there. 3 to 5 in the Maritimes and 10 or so West of Quebec than he will be in a comfortable majority. Seems very plausible at this point in time.

Besides, the Liberal a day joining the leadership race has given them a lot of ink.

No, I certainly would not celebrate if these results held through to the next election. But a reported drop in CPC support to a mere 35% while the Liberals have yet to pick a leader, may be the beginning of a new trend. Having said that, I don't believe that the figure of 35% will hold up in other polls. It seems far too low...for now.

Harper's current popularity in Quebec, reminiscent of Mulroney's former popularity there, guarantees that he's probably not as low as 35%.

[normanchateau]

Besides, the Liberal a day joining the leadership race has given them a lot of ink.

Yes, and whoever wins this race will have a far tougher time getting there than Stephen Harper did in winning his leadership race. He merely had to defeat the unimpressive Belinda Stronach and Tony Clement. In that competition, Harper actually looked credible for a moment. People temporarily forgot his opposition to gay marriage and temporarily forgot that he voted against including gay bashing in hate crimes legislation. But Harper's past will come back to haunt him in the next election no matter how shrewdly and disingenously he pretends to be moderate in order to secure a majority.

[shoop]

The next election will *not* be successful for the Liberals if all they can run on is *scary* *scary* *scary* again.

Harper will have had a good 1 to 2 year record as PM by the time the next election rolls around. Anybody arguing about what he did *before* becoming PM will be ignored, or merely preaching to the converted.

But Harper's past will come back to haunt him in the next election no matter how shrewdly and disingenously he pretends to be moderate in order to secure a majority.

[apollo19]

New CTV Post Budget Poll

New CTV polls suggest Conservative support has fallen 4 points to 35.

Liberals and NDP both up two percentage points.

Conservatives: 35%

Liberals: 31%

NDP: 16%

Green: 9%

Kiraly, is there a regional breakdown? I assume CPC support is particularly low in BC where more people disapproved than approved of the federal budget. Apparently Quebecers loved the budget but this is not surprising. They already get subsidized child daycare throughout Quebec, thanks to their provincial government, and another $1200 a year per child on top of that from Harper. I wonder if this is a fiscal imbalance that Harper will address?

Looking at the original poll, I think we can all safely toss this one out the window. Any poll that shows the Greens at 9% clearly has some issues, and I just don't think the NDP and CPC would have gone down so much. With regard to what Norman was talking about, I must question why you would think CPC support is low in BC? If anything, I suspect due to this budget they would have most of the support of the ~45% of the people in the province who are historical tax cut supporters (traditional Socred/BCLib support level).

[Canuck E Stan]

But Harper's past will come back to haunt him in the next election no matter how shrewdly and disingenously he pretends to be moderate in order to secure a majority.

In the next election the only "past" the voters will see will be that of past Liberal governments that were all talk and no action.The voter will see Harper as a Prime Minister who acts on his promises, and that is totally refreshing to hear from a politician. Maybe this will become a new standard that voters will demand.

[Hicksey]

But Harper's past will come back to haunt him in the next election no matter how shrewdly and disingenously he pretends to be moderate in order to secure a majority.

In the next election the only "past" the voters will see will be that of past Liberal governments that were all talk and no action.The voter will see Harper as a Prime Minister who acts on his promises, and that is totally refreshing to hear from a politician. Maybe this will become a new standard that voters will demand.

The better question is how we came to accept/live with the behavior in the first place.

[Kiraly]

New Decima Poll

Conservative budget and softwood deal get passing grade in Decima poll

OTTAWA (CP) - A new poll suggests Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government may be winning over Canadians with its budget and its handling of the softwood lumber dispute.

The Decima Research survey, said to be accurate within 3.1 percentage points 19 time out of 20, puts Conservative support at 41 per cent nationally, followed by the Liberals at 29 per cent, the NDP at 16 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 10.

Sample size is 1,000 - same as the Strategic Council poll

[Hicksey]

I don't know why we're still arguing over poll results which historically aren't very accurate anyway.

The only polls that count are elections.

Besides, Canadians change their minds more often than their underwear.