New poll shows big CPC lead

[Black Dog]

Harper and his new government solidify voter support across the country as they begin to govern.

This latest survey shows that, nationally, 41 percent of eligible and decided Canadian voters would support the Conservative Party if an election were held today, compared with the 36 percent it earned in the January 23rd federal election. The Liberal Party, now under interim leadership, has seen its support drop to 22 percent (down 8 points), and is now in a statistical tie with the New Democratic Party, which has seen its support edge upwards to 21 percent (up 3 points). Support for the Bloc Québécois in Quebec is stable at 44 percent (up 2 points). Relatively few (13%) voters are currently undecided about which party might deserve their support.

What is most interesting to me, however is this:

The survey also asked Canadians why they thought the federal Conservative Party won the last election and are now forming a new government in Ottawa.

More than half share the view that the outcome was because of widespread dissatisfaction with the previous Liberal government (54%), while more than a third (37%) said there was a general feeling it was time for a change. By comparison, only five percent of Canadians said they thought the Conservatives won this election because of their platform or policies. This perspective is largely the same across supporters of the different parties.

That doesn't indicate a solid base of suppport for the CPC. They got in because people were sick and tired of the Liberals; they have support because people are sick and tired of elections. It remains to be seen if they can win anyone over with their policies.

[geoffrey]

True on both accounts BD.

It'll take some time for Canadians to open up to the realisation that things will actually change. And there is no doubt that many Canadians won't like the changes towards smaller governments, lower taxes and less social handouts.

I'd suggest that CPC support can't cross that 45% line ever, as most Canadians have just become so acustomed to having the government in their lives. For these people, the Liberals and NDP are better choices and will always have their support.

The big gains are to be made in Quebec, where I'll venture the guess that most Quebecers really like the increased autonomy that the CPC is offering.

[Smithers]

Their all the same if you ask me.

[Black Dog]

It'll take some time for Canadians to open up to the realisation that things will actually change. And there is no doubt that many Canadians won't like the changes towards smaller governments, lower taxes and less social handouts.

Well, that's assuming things will actually change, right?

I'd suggest that CPC support can't cross that 45% line ever, as most Canadians have just become so acustomed to having the government in their lives. For these people, the Liberals and NDP are better choices and will always have their support.

Is it that they've become accustomed? Or is a strong central government part of the values of Canada? Heck: even conservative Canadians don't sem to be oppossed to big government per se: they just prefer big governments with priorities that match their own.

The big gains are to be made in Quebec, where I'll venture the guess that most Quebecers really like the increased autonomy that the CPC is offering.

I'm curious, though, if that will be enough to keep Quebec happy.

[geoffrey]

I'd suggest that CPC support can't cross that 45% line ever, as most Canadians have just become so acustomed to having the government in their lives. For these people, the Liberals and NDP are better choices and will always have their support.

Is it that they've become accustomed? Or is a strong central government part of the values of Canada? Heck: even conservative Canadians don't sem to be oppossed to big government per se: they just prefer big governments with priorities that match their own.

It has become a central value to Canadians. That's why we've seen the reformers move towards a more tory position on most things. You'd never see a real conservative offer a $1200 paycheque to parents.

So when I say smaller, less involved government, its just relatively that way. Not saying smaller than say Monaco or UAE, just smaller than we have now.

The big gains are to be made in Quebec, where I'll venture the guess that most Quebecers really like the increased autonomy that the CPC is offering.

I'm curious, though, if that will be enough to keep Quebec happy.

I don't think that alone will. Getting Quebec to sign the constitution would be a huge accomplishment for national unity though.

[Hicksey]

Black Dog is right. This is Canada. People only follow the blue sheep when the red one is taking a dump.

True, blue, paleo-conservatism would never fly here.

We have the CPC and the Liberals fighting over the political center while the NDP occupies the left and the right really remains empty -- as far as how the parties govern, and their policies.

[BubberMiley]

And there is no doubt that many Canadians won't like the changes towards smaller governments, lower taxes and less social handouts.

It remains to be seen whether taxes will go down or government will get smaller. Their election platform promised they wouldn't reduce any social services, and CRA is already planning to boost middle income taxes later this year based on the CPC plan. The average middle income earner would have definitely seen more savings with the Liberal income tax cut than the 1% GST cut, especially those earners with things like mortgages and kids who don't have a lot of disposable income for discretionary spending, which is what the GST generally applies to.

Unless there's a gigantic resource windfall to be had, Conservative governments generally don't cut taxes without boosting deficits.

[fixer1]

It just amazes me that people just do not see what is right in front of them. The CPC will go through the roof if they simply do the one thing that the liberals never did. That is do exactly what they promised to do during the election and do it as fast as possible. Those simple acts will garantee a majority government for them next time around. The biggest thing you heard during last election was people saying they are all corupt and they never do what they say they will do. So it only goes that when you can show the people that you mean what you say, that in and of itself will garner more votes then anything else. It does not even have to be things that the people will like, as long as you live up to your word. It is sad but true that in all of the electoral process we still want to find just one honest party that means what it says.

[shoop]

I think you are dead on with that one. Here's why.

For four cosecutive elections the Liberals ran on *scary, scary, scary*. Worked in 97, 2000 and less well in 2004. Almost worked in 2006 - with Adscam the Liberals should've been below the bloq in seats. But enough people bought scary, scary, scary that Harper was held to a minority.

Fulfilling the election promises and calling an election before the new Liberals leader has too much time to get comfortable with that role could lead to a win pretty quickly.

It just amazes me that people just do not see what is right in front of them. The CPC will go through the roof if they simply do the one thing that the liberals never did. That is do exactly what they promised to do during the election and do it as fast as possible. Those simple acts will garantee a majority government for them next time around.

[newbie]

It just amazes me that people just do not see what is right in front of them. The CPC will go through the roof if they simply do the one thing that the liberals never did. That is do exactly what they promised to do during the election and do it as fast as possible. Those simple acts will garantee a majority government for them next time around...It is sad but true that in all of the electoral process we still want to find just one honest party that means what it says.

Honest? Well, the CPC was off to a bad start re accountability with the Emerson/Fortier fiasco.

[shoop]

What do you mean re: accountability?

People in Quebec were happy with Fortier's appointment.

Emerson has blown over. *If* he can arrive at a solution to softwood lumber it will be a master stroke. (That's a big if and unlikely to happen.) If not, a tempest in a teapot. Emerson doesn't run again and Vancouver-Kingsway is a battle between the Liberals and the NDP again.

Honest? Well, the CPC was off to a bad start re accountability with the Emerson/Fortier fiasco.

[betsy]

What do you mean re: accountability?

People in Quebec were happy with Fortier's appointment.

Emerson has blown over. *If* he can arrive at a solution to softwood lumber it will be a master stroke. (That's a big if and unlikely to happen.) If not, a tempest in a teapot. Emerson doesn't run again and Vancouver-Kingsway is a battle between the Liberals and the NDP again.

Honest? Well, the CPC was off to a bad start re accountability with the Emerson/Fortier fiasco.

And besides, Ethics Commission ruled CPC did nothing wrong. Anyway, there was no new official policy on accountability at the time....therfore, Harper can do like any PM can do.

It was the other parties who tried to make a big deal out of it...dragging it out as much as they can stretch it, even when the rest of Canada had already moved on.

This new poll probably suggests that the public is on to this campaign-mode tactics by the NDP and Liberals, and tired over it.

[Steve]

Vote motivation will change before the next election based on whatever issues are relevant - this time, 'time for a change' was important, next time it may be 'the Conservatives are doing a good job.'

As a Conservative, I'm looking towards the latter. I think that Harper can win a majority, and it will come through the clear and focused way his government operates. The policies will be popular to an extent, but the real strength will come from the contrast to the erratic workings of the previous government.

The scary Harper thing isn't going to fly next time around - he's no longer an unknown quantity in government, so that "fear of the unknown" is going to be a hard sell.

[shoop]

It is very interesting how the Harper government is mirroring the 2006 campaign.

The *appearances* of a brutal start. SSM talk, not being able to find Gordon O'Connor on the stage and forgetting candidates names from Quebec City all within the first 48 hours. However the SSM talk was brilliant in hindsight and all the minor things were forgotten.

First weeks in government were slow. Emerson looked like a *brutal* decision but it has turned for the better. The Government's performance in Question Period has been excellent so far. No questions about that.

Vote motivation will change before the next election based on whatever issues are relevant - this time, 'time for a change' was important, next time it may be 'the Conservatives are doing a good job.'

As a Conservative, I'm looking towards the latter. I think that Harper can win a majority, and it will come through the clear and focused way his government operates. The policies will be popular to an extent, but the real strength will come from the contrast to the erratic workings of the previous government.

[sideshow]

I dont think that the majority of the voting electorate even KNOWS what the platforms are of any of the political parties. Most of their information comes watered down from external sources with bias ( in all regards).

So do you think they even know what the promises of various politicians are? How many voters actually take the time to call their candidates? Surf their websites in any meaningful way?

Rome wasnt built in a day-and Stephen wont tear Canada down in a day either.

[shoop]

You would be surprised how many people do take the time to call campaign offices.

1993 and 2006 represented changes in Government. In both cases the winning parties focused on higlighting their platforms in order to contrast themselves with the tried Government's of the day.

We'll have to see if this recipe is followed next time around...

I dont think that the majority of the voting electorate even KNOWS what the platforms are of any of the political parties. Most of their information comes watered down from external sources with bias ( in all regards).

So do you think they even know what the promises of various politicians are? How many voters actually take the time to call their candidates? Surf their websites in any meaningful way?

Rome wasnt built in a day-and Stephen wont tear Canada down in a day either.

[Montgomery Burns]

I just have to reply to this (first ever?) BD thread. It's only a poll but I am not surprised to see the results. Harper has been doing a good job. It's been a while but I am feeling proud to be Canadian these days:

A true commitment to spreading freedom and liberty

The first country (after Israel) to reject sending money to Hamas and the PA

Stopping taxpayer funding to parasitical leftwing global warming zealots

[hiti]

Well Harper better hope that he gets to call an election before people have to file their 2006 taxes.

Besides he hasn't delivered on anything yet. Doesn't matter what he says.

[scribblet]

Well Harper better hope that he gets to call an election before people have to file their 2006 taxes.

Besides he hasn't delivered on anything yet. Doesn't matter what he says.

Parliament hasn't been sitting long enough for him to deliver anything, and delivery will also hinge on the opposition voting.

[normanchateau]

It just amazes me that people just do not see what is right in front of them. The CPC will go through the roof if they simply do the one thing that the liberals never did. That is do exactly what they promised to do during the election and do it as fast as possible. Those simple acts will garantee a majority government for them next time around. The biggest thing you heard during last election was people saying they are all corupt and they never do what they say they will do. So it only goes that when you can show the people that you mean what you say, that in and of itself will garner more votes then anything else. It does not even have to be things that the people will like, as long as you live up to your word. It is sad but true that in all of the electoral process we still want to find just one honest party that means what it says.

Those of us with capital gains tax to pay this year will certainly remember the Harper promise of January 6, 2006, when he promised to eliminate the capital gains tax. Instead, it was eliminated only for charitable donations. Maybe one day Harper will realize that false promises aren't the way to gain credibility.

[shoop]

Those of us with capital gains tax to pay this year will certainly remember the Harper promise of January 6, 2006, when he promised to eliminate the capital gains tax. Instead, it was eliminated only for charitable donations. Maybe one day Harper will realize that false promises aren't the way to gain credibility.

Normie, good to see you back. Glad to see that you are holding onto your hatred and misinformation.

The promise was to eliminate the capital gains tax for cases of charitable donations.

Are you that opposed to giving money to charity?

[normanchateau]

Those of us with capital gains tax to pay this year will certainly remember the Harper promise of January 6, 2006, when he promised to eliminate the capital gains tax. Instead, it was eliminated only for charitable donations. Maybe one day Harper will realize that false promises aren't the way to gain credibility.

Normie, good to see you back.

The promise was to eliminate the capital gains tax for cases of charitable donations.

Are you that opposed to giving money to charity?

Shoopie, I am completely in favour of eliminating the capital gains tax on charitable donations. However, you must have a very short memory, In January, 2006, Harper promised to virtually eliminate the capital gains tax by allowing deferral of tax on reinvested capital. That particular campaign "promise" seems to have been totally forgotten by you. Funny how some Conservatives can forget a broken campaign promise made a mere four months ago by Harper and instead spread misinformation strongly implying that Harper only made reference to charitable donations.

Interestingly, Garth Turner actually predicted that Harper would fail to honour this campaign promise:

http://www.garth.ca/weblog/2006/04/24/

[shoop]

Where was this actually promised?

Garth never said that it was a campaign promise to start with.

Really normie, if you intend upon lying, don't try and link to something off point for support. Do provide a link of where this promise was actually made.

Shoopie, I am completely in favour of eliminating the capital gains tax on charitable donations. However, you must have a very short memory, In January, 2006, Harper promised to virtually eliminate the capital gains tax by allowing deferral of tax on reinvested capital. That particular campaign "promise" seems to have been totally forgotten by you. Funny how some Conservatives can forget a broken campaign promise made a mere four months ago by Harper and instead spread misinformation strongly implying that Harper only made reference to charitable donations.

Interestingly, Garth Turner actually predicted that Harper would fail to honour this campaign promise:

http://www.garth.ca/weblog/2006/04/24/

[normanchateau]

Where was this actually promised?

Garth never said that it was a campaign promise to start with.

Really normie, if you intend upon lying, don't try and link to something off point for support. Do provide a link of where this promise was actually made.

Shoopie, I am completely in favour of eliminating the capital gains tax on charitable donations. However, you must have a very short memory, In January, 2006, Harper promised to virtually eliminate the capital gains tax by allowing deferral of tax on reinvested capital. That particular campaign "promise" seems to have been totally forgotten by you. Funny how some Conservatives can forget a broken campaign promise made a mere four months ago by Harper and instead spread misinformation strongly implying that Harper only made reference to charitable donations.

Interestingly, Garth Turner actually predicted that Harper would fail to honour this campaign promise:

http://www.garth.ca/weblog/2006/04/24/

Shooppie, funny how your apparent inability to find on the internet, a widely cited Harper promise which he has failed to honour is interpreted by you as someone else lying. I found numerous URL's Here's just one:

http://www.gowlings.com/resources/enewslet...060113c.en.html

[shoop]

Hmmm, from your link here is the promise Harper made.

“We will allow deferral of capital gains taxes when proceeds are reinvested within six months,” Harper concluded. “This will allow those who sell family enterprises to avoid taking a hit and keep long-term investors focused on long-term gains.”

You do realize that the $1/2 million capital gains exemption for fishers was included in the budget, thus allowing them to pass on the assets and maintain the family enterprise.

OK, Normie, he only fulfilled half of this promise wthin his first 3 1/2 months in office. As well as the promise on an exemption for donations to charity. He will have another budget before the next election.

But you don't actually have a link to the full text of what Harper said, instead of a report on it, in those numerous URL's do you?

'Shooppie, funny how your apparent inability to find on the internet, a widely cited Harper promise which he has failed to honour is interpreted by you as someone else lying. I found numerous URL's Here's just one:

http://www.gowlings.com/resources/enewslet...060113c.en.html