The homestretch

[Nationalist]

51 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Until you have SOME evidence, it "was on the up an' up." Duh

Your suspicions mean NOTHING. Esp since it's not your country and you're just here trying sow confusion with NO EVIDENCE. 🤮  

You act guilty.

[West]

8 minutes ago, Hodad said:

Lol. It's not accurate. He's not projected to win all of those votes. RCP does not project those votes. 

They. Are. Called. Toss. Ups. For. A. Reason.

He is projected as of right now as he leads to polling average. 

Just as Joe Biden was in 2020. 

Will it happen? You'll have to wait until next Monday. But right now it's leaning Trump both in the betting and polling averages

[CdnFox]

17 minutes ago, Fluffypants said:

Their internal polls are important to the campaigns because that is how they tell where they stand on messaging etc and I guarantee you they don't give a damn about the national vote and they aren't using the media polls internally other than touting them if they show they are leading.

Oh they aren't using the media polls, that's why they have internal polling. And they'll be looking at the national picture as well as literally probably down to the county level in many areas. They're polling will be more detailed and will be geared to be closer to 100% accurate instead of general and will generally have larger samples.

But the point is obviously it's telling them a great deal of information. That's what lets them make changes to their messaging and such. So it would be inaccurate to say that they are of no value or that they don't matter

20 minutes ago, Fluffypants said:

We don't generally hear about the internal polls but the rank and file media polls are doing 100 national polls to 1 state poll when national polls are meaningless because the national popular vote is meaningless other than make liberals mad.

They're not meaningless. They're still accurate within their margin of error. They just have a fairly wide margin of error and they don't make any pretension otherwise.

21 minutes ago, Fluffypants said:

Polls are educated guesses at best, you never know which poll is going to be the "right" one

They're very educated guesses. And more often than not they are correct or reflect the situation with reasonable accuracy. More importantly they are actually quite good at exploring trends. Who has and hasn't got momentum over time, That sort of thing.

It's a little like the weather reporters   They definitely don't always get it right. But if they say it's going to rain tomorrow you probably should take an umbrella because you will be glad you did more often than you're not.

[robosmith]

8 minutes ago, Nationalist said:

You act guilty.

Your FAILURE to present EVIDENCE makes you guilty of LYING.

7 minutes ago, West said:

He is projected as of right now as he leads to polling average. 

Just as Joe Biden was in 2020. 

Will it happen? You'll have to wait until next Monday. But right now it's leaning Trump both in the betting and polling averages

Betting averages mean less than nothing cause they are easily MANIPULATED. Duh

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, robosmith said:

Your FAILURE to present EVIDENCE makes you guilty of LYING.

Betting averages mean less than nothing cause they are easily MANIPULATED. Duh

Whoops, it looks like Robo is having a bit of a meltdown because he realizes the truth and he doesn't like what it has to say  

[West]

1 hour ago, robosmith said:

Your FAILURE to present EVIDENCE makes you guilty of LYING.

Betting averages mean less than nothing cause they are easily MANIPULATED. Duh

They've been the most accurate predictor in recent elections because the algorithm takes into account many things. The more precise you get in your research the more accurate

 

Duh 

[Hodad]

57 minutes ago, West said:

He is projected as of right now as he leads to polling average. 

Just as Joe Biden was in 2020. 

Will it happen? You'll have to wait until next Monday. But right now it's leaning Trump both in the betting and polling averages

Again, that's simply false. He is not projected to win those votes. If he were, they'd show a Republican lean instead of a toss up. Nor is he predicted to win the election. 

That's not how polling works or how projections work. This isn't even like someone is at the extreme edge of the margin of error. It's not like a shrug where we say, "Anything is possible!" The polls are simply too close to call. Again, toss ups for a reason.

If you want projections, RCP doesn't do projections. Look elsewhere. 

[robosmith]

3 minutes ago, West said:

They've been the most accurate predictor in recent elections because the algorithm takes into account many things. The more precise you get in your research the more accurate

 

Duh 

Too bad you don't know the "many things," let alone have EVIDENCE of "more accurate."

[West]

10 minutes ago, Hodad said:

Again, that's simply false. He is not projected to win those votes. If he were, they'd show a Republican lean instead of a toss up. Nor is he predicted to win the election. 

That's not how polling works or how projections work. This isn't even like someone is at the extreme edge of the margin of error. It's not like a shrug where we say, "Anything is possible!" The polls are simply too close to call. Again, toss ups for a reason.

If you want projections, RCP doesn't do projections. Look elsewhere. 

As of right now yeah he is. 

[Hodad]

15 minutes ago, West said:

They've been the most accurate predictor in recent elections because the algorithm takes into account many things. The more precise you get in your research the more accurate

 

Duh 

You fundamentally misunderstand the nature of betting oddsmakers. They are not interested AT ALL in predicting who will win any contest.

Rather, they make and adjust the odds to ensure that bettors will play (and pay) from both sides. If they need more players for one position than another they sweeten the odds to make the bet more attractive.

The"algorithms" you mention are very effective, but they're not trying to predict outcomes. They're trying to equalize betting from both sides, so the losers pay off the winners and the market collects the fees from both sides. 

Edited October 29, 2024 by Hodad

[West]

2 hours ago, Hodad said:

You fundamentally misunderstand the nature of betting oddsmakers. They are not interested AT ALL in predicting who will win any contest.

Rather, they make and adjust the odds to ensure that bettors will play (and pay) from both sides. If they need more players for one position than another they sweeten the odds to make the bet more attractive.

The"algorithms" you mention are very effective, but they're not trying to predict outcomes. They're trying to equalize betting from both sides, so the losers pay off the winners and the market collects the fees from both sides. 

You fundamentally don't understand the English language and got worked up at me because your candidate is currently behind. 

[West]

Charlie Kirk, a conservative pundit, is urging men to get out to vote. Women are outpacing men which may be a good sign for Kamala. 

 

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, West said:

Charlie Kirk, a conservative pundit, is urging men to get out to vote. Women are outpacing men which may be a good sign for Kamala. 

 

In the past the democrats have been more successful in getting their vote out early. We'll see if the republicans are successful in getting their vote out on voting day.

[West]

A couple of states have flipped from Donnie to Harris. Donnie's still projected to win 287 electoral college votes. 

Basically Harris will have to win Michigan and Pennsylvania to have a shot whereas Trump only needs to pick off one at this point. 

[West]

This is interesting. 

If Harris wins it's because she can swing both Michigan and Pennsylvania and hold Nevada 

 

 

[West]

The betting odds the day before the election. 

It appears Kamala is favored to win Michigan and Wisconsin..

Basically it should come down to Pennsylvania with Trump holding a lead everywhere else that suggests he's likely to win those states (NC, Georgia, AZ, Nevada). 

We shall see.. Harris is going hard today in Pennsylvania as she knows what's at stake. 

[CdnFox]

Like I said earlier, if they lose Pennsylvania and he loses this election by two College votes after the census screw up which stole a bunch of seats from the republican states and gave a bunch to the democrat states there is going to be hell to pay

[Chrissy1979]

Trump says he's going to put Herschel Walker in charge of missile defence.

That is all.

[CdnFox]

13 minutes ago, Chrissy1979 said:

Trump says he's going to put Herschel Walker in charge of missile defence.

That is all.

Harris says she's going to put the Kardashians in charge of finance and the economy

That is all

[Chrissy1979]

10 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Harris says she's going to put the Kardashians in charge of finance and the economy

That is all

You thought I must be joking because nothing could be so stupid, right? 

https://newrepublic.com/post/187873/trump-dumbest-person-missile-defense-herschel-walker

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Chrissy1979 said:

You thought I must be joking because nothing could be so stupid, right? 

 

I was laughing because no one could be so stupid as to believe that was serious  

[Chrissy1979]

9 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

I was laughing because no one could be so stupid as to believe that was serious  

You're saying his whole candidacy is a joke? Thank God! So who's the non-joke candidate?

[West]

RealClear averages 

[CdnFox]

3 hours ago, Chrissy1979 said:

You're saying his whole candidacy is a joke?

I'm saying that your english teacher was a joke  

Where as you personally are more of a derisive snicker at best.