It cancels out every Liberal housing promise and then some: Canada's biggest immigration surge in 70 years

[CdnFox]

Naturally, you can’t add this many people all at once without it having knock-on effects

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/it-cancels-out-every-liberal-housing-promise-and-then-some-canadas-biggest-immigration-surge-in-70-years

Even though the Trudeau government has made no secret of dialling up immigration to historic highs, the latest Statistics Canada figures on population growth are still jaw-dropping. In just three months (from July 1 to Oct. 1), Canada added an extra 430,635 people – only four per cent of which could be attributed to births. For just the first nine months of 2023, Statistics Canada noted that the country had seen a higher level of population growth than “any other full-year period since Confederation in 1867.”

the immigration surge is a prime contributor to the skyrocketing cost of Canadian housing. It’s also cancelling out almost all of Canada’s post-pandemic job growth. In November, the country added 25,000 jobs, but unemployment went up anyway because so many new immigrants had joined the work force. “Growth in the population continued to outpace employment growth,” wrote the Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey.

[CdnFox]

So here's the serious question:

Trudeau knows that immigration is driving inflation, lowering GDP-per-Capita (quality of life), and most of all making housing impossible to afford and impossible to find.

AND - he knows this is what gets gov'ts fired. He KNOWS this is the most important thing on people's minds right now and that they're furious.  He's being voted the worst prime minister in history. His' tanked in the polls so hard he might actually somehow manage to get NEGATIVE polling numbers before the end - like people would vote against him and sneak back in and vote against him again they hate him so much.

Given all that, WHY THE HELL IS HE DOUBLING DOWN ON INCREASING IMMIGRATION?!?!

EVERYONE hates it! It's winning him no political points anywhere and it will likely be one of the biggest factors in his upcoming defeat directly and indirectly

Why the hell is he doing it?  Why the hell is his party going along with it? Maybe he doesnt' mind losing his job but most of them do, and most of them are going to be without a job come 2025 at this rate!

I just don't get it! Why is this happening?

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by CdnFox

[Michael Hardner]

55 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

So here's the serious question:

Trudeau knows that immigration is driving inflation, lowering GDP-per-Capita (quality of life), and most of all making housing impossible to afford and impossible to find.

AND - he knows this is what gets gov'ts fired. He KNOWS this is the most important thing on people's minds right now and that they're furious.  He's being voted the worst prime minister in history. His' tanked in the polls so hard he might actually somehow manage to get NEGATIVE polling numbers before the end - like people would vote against him and sneak back in and vote against him again they hate him so much.

Given all that, WHY THE HELL IS HE DOUBLING DOWN ON INCREASING IMMIGRATION?!?!

EVERYONE hates it! It's winning him no political points anywhere and it will likely be one of the biggest factors in his upcoming defeat directly and indirectly

Why the hell is he doing it?  Why the hell is his party going along with it? Maybe he doesnt' mind losing his job but most of them do, and most of them are going to be without a job come 2025 at this rate!

I just don't get it! Why is this happening?

 

Because a lot of your premises are false? GDP increases with immigration. If you think that's not true then ask yourself why Poilievre hasn't said he'll cut immigration, let alone stop it.

I'm not saying that the policy he's put forward is good or even responsible, I'm just saying that governments want to increase GDP and increase population is a very simple way to do that.

[I am Groot]

15 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Because a lot of your premises are false? GDP increases with immigration. If you think that's not true then ask yourself why Poilievre hasn't said he'll cut immigration, let alone stop it.

I'm not saying that the policy he's put forward is good or even responsible, I'm just saying that governments want to increase GDP and increase population is a very simple way to do that.

But it DECREASES GDP per person, which means we are less wealthy and less productive. 

Canada's population grew by 430k in the third quarter and our GDP STILL shrank. Were it not for mass immigration our actual GDP would have dropped far, far more. Our GDP per capita, meanwhile, is on a long, downward slump.

[Michael Hardner]

6 minutes ago, I am Groot said:

1. But it DECREASES GDP per person, which means we are less wealthy and less productive. 

2. Canada's population grew by 430k in the third quarter and our GDP STILL shrank. Were it not for mass immigration our actual GDP would have dropped far, far more. Our GDP per capita, meanwhile, is on a long, downward slump.

1. I don't think that's the case. If you can provide some cite for it I would look at it.  Every new immigrant increases domestic demand for products and goods, and since there's a working person at the center of it at person is also producing so...

Of course you can argue that the Trudeau policies don't maximize the economic benefit, that the actual net economic benefit is flat or whatever, but as a general statement on immigration, I don't think it holds to say GDP per person goes down

2. Well yes, because of the recession or near recession.  Immigration has gone up every year for decades, or maybe more accurate to say there has been immigration for decades including times when the GDP declined and times are exploded. So you can't really associate immigration with the cause in the short term.

This is economics, mind you, so you will find dissenting opinions also.

[myata]

Because we can. What?

[Aristides]

 

Quote

1. I don't think that's the case. If you can provide some cite for it I would look at it.  Every new immigrant increases domestic demand for products and goods, and since there's a working person at the center of it at person is also producing so...

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-record-population-growth-1.7063692

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-economy-1.7044651

 

So our population increased by 1% in the 3rd quarter and our GDP shrunk 0.3%

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

Because a lot of your premises are false? GDP increases with immigration. If you think that's not true then ask yourself why Poilievre hasn't said he'll cut immigration, let alone stop it.

 

No, it's just that unusually stupid people can't understand some of the basics.  Here - let me find a crayon and spell it out for you.

While gdp increases with immigration, gdp per capita can easily go down. GDP per capita is largely what determines quality of life.  Lets say you can tax 10 percent of a person's income. If their income is 100 dollars per person - then per person you can collect 10 dollars and pay for 10 dollars worth of services.  And they have 90 dollars to pay for goods and housing etc.

If however the average falls to 50 dollars per person.... it gets pretty hard to afford those 10 dollars per person worth of services. And even if you take half - they'll only have 45 dollars to get by on and the economy is  driven by that.

Hope you can see the problem now.

But - that's not really the biggest problem here. Inflation is.  If you have 10 houses and 10 people, prices get pretty high.  IF you have 10 houses and 12 people....  you've got a problem.

Hope none of that math went over your head.

Quote

I'm not saying that the policy he's put forward is good or even responsible, I'm just saying that governments want to increase GDP and increase population is a very simple way to do that.

An even simpler way is just borrow more money.  Gov't spending counts as part of GDP for the most part.  So what you're Just saying" makes no sense.

Immigrants don't raise GDP very much at all for the cost and effort of bringing them in, borrowing and spending money does a much faster and better job. 

And why would gov'ts want to raise gdp when they know that doing so is making the public furious with the increased inflation? The housing crisis is probably the number one barrier to his re election so if raising the GDP is his plan - and i can't imagine why it would be - then why do it in a way that upsets your voters?

Literally none of what you said makes the slightest sense at all.   Maybe you should ask more questions and make fewer statements till you learn a little more about how money and politics work.

[Michael Hardner]

4 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

No, it's just that unusually stupid people can't understand some of the basics.  Here - let me find a crayon and spell it out for you.

While gdp increases with immigration, gdp per capita can easily go down. GDP per capita is largely what determines quality of life.  Lets say you can tax 10 percent of a person's income. If their income is 100 dollars per person - then per person you can collect 10 dollars and pay for 10 dollars worth of services.  And they have 90 dollars to pay for goods and housing etc.

If however the average falls to 50 dollars per person.... it gets pretty hard to afford those 10 dollars per person worth of services. And even if you take half - they'll only have 45 dollars to get by on and the economy is  driven by that.

Hope you can see the problem now.

But - that's not really the biggest problem here. Inflation is.  If you have 10 houses and 10 people, prices get pretty high.  IF you have 10 houses and 12 people....  you've got a problem.

Hope none of that math went over your head.

An even simpler way is just borrow more money.  Gov't spending counts as part of GDP for the most part.  So what you're Just saying" makes no sense.

Immigrants don't raise GDP very much at all for the cost and effort of bringing them in, borrowing and spending money does a much faster and better job. 

And why would gov'ts want to raise gdp when they know that doing so is making the public furious with the increased inflation? The housing crisis is probably the number one barrier to his re election so if raising the GDP is his plan - and i can't imagine why it would be - then why do it in a way that upsets your voters?

Literally none of what you said makes the slightest sense at all.   Maybe you should ask more questions and make fewer statements till you learn a little more about how money and politics work.

Before I respond, do you want to edit and remove the childish insults?

[CdnFox]

1 hour ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. I don't think that's the case. If you can provide some cite for it I would look at it.  Every new immigrant increases domestic demand for products and goods, and since there's a working person at the center of it at person is also producing so...

https://betterdwelling.com/canada-has-entered-a-per-capita-recession-quality-of-life-expected-to-erode/

Sorry - you're wrong again.

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Of course you can argue that the Trudeau policies don't maximize the economic benefit, that the actual net economic benefit is flat or whatever, but as a general statement on immigration, I don't think it holds to say GDP per person goes down

It does once you exceed a certain point.

The average immigrant will earn less that a Canadian of the same age and basic education/skill for a number of years when they arrive due to several reasons.  So if you have 2 natural canadians creating 10 gdp dollars each, and add 1 who's earning 5, then the aveage goes from 10 to 7.5.

Most years the average person increases their gdp output so when immigration is modest it doesnt' really show up and you still get growth per gdp.  But - once you hit a point it stats to fall.

 

Quote

2. Well yes, because of the recession or near recession.  Immigration has gone up every year for decades, or maybe more accurate to say there has been immigration for decades including times when the GDP declined and times are exploded. So you can't really associate immigration with the cause in the short term.

We have NEVER had our population increase through immigration like this.   So trying to say that 'it's been like this in the past' is simply wrong

[CdnFox]

4 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Before I respond, do you want to edit and remove the childish insults?

Sorry - you mean like the one you started off with in your first reply to me.

No.  You know my rule - act like an ignorant peice of crap, get treated like one and that's the way it goes.  What kind of buffoon starts his first sentence with an insult and then complains that the reply has insults?  Is there some training class where you learn to be that entitled?

Put me back on ignore - you live most of your life with your head in the sand , it's  a good look for you, coward that you are. and honestly i've yet to see you contribute ANYTHING of value. I can point out the stupidity of your remarks just as easily without you wasting my time with your juvenile prancing.  "You're a pooppy head - HAY - DON'T INSULT ME BACK?!!?!?"

Run along boy - the adults are talking.

[Michael Hardner]

21 minutes ago, CdnFox said:

Sorry - you mean like the one you started off with in your first reply to me.

No.    

Yes maybe. Okay, I'm not going to spend as much time as I would if we were responding out of mutual respect.

I don't exactly disrespect your persona, just your methods a lot of the time.

 

[Michael Hardner]

4 hours ago, CdnFox said:

 

1. While gdp increases with immigration, gdp per capita can easily go down.

 

2. But - that's not really the biggest problem here. Inflation is.  If you have 10 houses and 10 people, prices get pretty high.  IF you have 10 houses and 12 people....  you've got a problem.

3. An even simpler way is just borrow .

4. The average immigrant will earn less that a Canadian of the same age and basic education/skill for a number of years when they arrive due to several reasons.  So if you have 2 natural canadians creating 10 gdp dollars each, and add 1 who's earning 5, then the aveage goes from 10 to 7.5.

1. You mean immigration can cause GDP per capita to fall?  Can you give me a cite?  I'd like to read about that.

2. We're talking about the current housing crisis now, which has immigration cited as a cause but immigration isn't cited as a cause of inflation in general.  Again, a cite that isn't simply an observation of the current situation would be helpful.

3. What does government borrowing have to do with any of this?

4. Their salaries don't total their contribution to GDP.  People don't earn "GDP Dollars"

...

Generally, you seem to be looking at inflation, and the housing crisis and attributing the cause to immigration.  That's fine for 2023, but immigration general is a tool that Canadian governments have used for decades... the recent situation notwithstanding.

I'm asking you for cites for the general case of immigration in Canada.  To say that immigration today is high, and inflation is ... It's just an observation nothing more.

[Michael Hardner]

And since I'm out here on a limb... Just trying to state the case for immigration as a general policy... Since every Canadian government for decades has had fairly high immigration...

 

Can someone, anyone, point to a statement by Poilievre saying he's going to eliminate immigration or cut it even or drastically reduce it? I mean it's such a stupid policy. So ridiculous that anyone who even defends immigration must use crayons right?

So big brain Pierre. He must be ready to cut it to zero right?

[CdnFox]

21 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

1. You mean immigration can cause GDP per capita to fall?  Can you give me a cite?  I'd like to read about that.

I did above but even basic math should demonstrate that, as i also went through above. Immigrants, even qualified immigrants, are not as productive as natural canadians for many years after arrival on average for many years, evne as much as 20 years. Therefore as our population has an increasing percent of new immigrants our gdp per capita will suffer accordingly, even to the point of going down.

Quote

2. We're talking about the current housing crisis now, which has immigration cited as a cause but immigration isn't cited as a cause of inflation in general.  Again, a cite that isn't simply an observation of the current situation would be helpful.

NUMEROUS threads and posts here have addressed that, including the fact that the housing crisis is one of the leading problems with inflation.  Inflation occurs when too many dollars chase too few products - immigration increases the number of people looking for product without increasing the product in the short term.

Quote

3. What does government borrowing have to do with any of this?

That was explained above.

 

Quote

4. Their salaries don't total their contribution to GDP.  People don't earn "GDP Dollars"

They absolutely do.  How did you think that services are calculated for gdp? Did you think gdp was just durable goods or something?  There are three ways to calculate gdp with different ones used for different sectors and without a doubt wages is one. When a nurse provides an hour's worth of service - it's part of the "Goods and SERVICES" that gpd calculates.  SOME gov't services use total expenditure instead, but wages make up a portion of that.

It is absolutely the case where a service is provided rather than a good produced that the  people's wages will be counted towards GDP in one method or the other, either directly or as part of the whole department's expenditure.

Here's a chart showing gov't expenditure as part of GDP

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Canada/government_size/

So if you want gdp to go up - gov't only has to spend some money. 

 

Quote

Generally, you seem to be looking at inflation, and the housing crisis and attributing the cause to immigration. 

Well sort of - as i have explained many many times elsewhere if you slashed immigration housing would get a little better for a SHORT time, but other changes would need to happen.

But there's no doubt in the slightest that steadily increasing it makes the problem much much worse.

Likewise immigration. Neither are the ONLY factor involved but they play a huge role

This is just plain fact - this is not debateable.  This is very basic.

Quote

I'm asking you for cites for the general case of immigration in Canada.  To say that immigration today is high, and inflation is ... It's just an observation nothing more.

 

First - lets correct that false statement.   I've been very very clear again and again that it isn't "immigration" - it's immigration in excess of our ability to produce the supporting infrastructure.  Homes, medicine, education , etc.  Immigration itself is not an issue as long as you can provide for the immigratns properly. ANd that's where we've been running into problems.

 

Quote

That's fine for 2023, but immigration general is a tool that Canadian governments have used for decades... the recent situation notwithstanding.

And will continue to do for generations to come, no doubt. But - of late three things really changed.

1 - Due to a number of factors, we now produce fewer homes than our increase in population requires. And we were already at a deficit, so a bad situation has become unlivable for many canadians. That is a simple fact.

2 - We have for decades had a complex and highly effective support mechanism involving private mentoring, gov't training and services, and other mechanisms to help new canadians adapt and quickly gain a strong foothold in the country. THis is especially necessary for people from cultures who are very different, they need to know what the cultural expectations are in canada so they're not offended by something they shouldn't be and don't give offense where they don't intend to and so they can navigate our gov't services and way of life.

WE have COMPLETELY exceeded that at this time and the current immigrants are not recieving that benefit - and that was what kept our immigration so successful.

3 -  we are ACCELERATING our immgration year after year and the system cannot adapt that quick.  It takes years for new home construction to actually go from planning to 'move in', it takes provinces and districts a long time to assess new needs for medical services and educational services as well as approving new housing. etc etc.  Once again - this puts a huge strain on our supply line, our housing. our medicine etc.

So this is NOT normal times.  We are NOT living now as we always have. We have NEVER had to have new refugees sleeping in the streets due to a lack of housing.  We have never had this kind of accelleration over time.

 

And all of this leads to  putting serious pressure on inflation and housing, it drives our gdp-per-capita down which reduces the amount of money avaialbe per person for gov't services and reduces business investment in efficiency.

Again - none of this is controversial or theoretical. This is the way it is. Numerous banks have said so. others have noted it. The math is pretty obvious.

[CdnFox]

22 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

And since I'm out here on a limb... Just trying to state the case for immigration as a general policy... Since every Canadian government for decades has had fairly high immigration...

 

You are engaging in a very common left wing debate trick of trying to change the subject just enough so that you can almost debate it.

Even Mad Max - mr "mass immigration' himself - doesn't suggest that all immigriaton is bad. So when you try to defend "immigration"  you're fake-creating an argument that NOBODY has made,   NOBODY has suggested that we shoudn't have immigration.

The concern is immigration that leads to population growth in excess of what we can support or sustain.   So lets try to keep this honest and not just say that "any" immigration is the isssue.

Quote

Can someone, anyone, point to a statement by Poilievre saying he's going to eliminate immigration or cut it even or drastically reduce it? I mean it's such a stupid policy. So ridiculous that anyone who even defends immigration must use crayons right?

That would be you. You are the only one whos "defending  immigration". Nobody else is questioning it - even the die hards think some is good.  What's being discussed is teh level of it.

PP has made two general statements -  immigraiton levels will be reassessed to reflect Canada's needs in both number and type of immigrant to ensure a sustainable benefit for Canada.  Most people take that to mean there will be something of a reduction but of course he's not going to say that before the next election. All he's saying is "Whatever the number is, it'll be the right number".

And he's also said he wants to speed up the process.  Right now a doctor wants to come to canada and work - and it's like 6 years or something. The applications don't get processed in a timely fashion, there's too much bullcrap and not enough important background checks, etc.

SO - his argument is if we DO find someone who we DO need here in canada and that we want - we want to get them here much faster and get them certified and doing what we need them to do.

 

Those are his two positions. They will almost certainly lead to a reduction of immigrants, perhaps even a seroius 'pause' in the number while some things get sorted in the short term,  and we'll get people who match our points needs here faster.

 

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, CdnFox said:

It is absolutely the case where a service is provided rather than a good produced that the  people's wages will be counted towards GDP in one method or the other, either directly or as part of the whole department's expenditure.

Here's a chart showing gov't expenditure as part of GDP

https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Canada/government_size/

 

Let's focus on this one area for now.

You agree that Salary doesn't get added to GDP for goods produced.  

So there's that.

For services, if I work for a company that charges an American firm 10X my salary for my services, what is the calculated value of the exported services?  My salary, or the amount of money that flows into Canada for my work?

[CdnFox]

25 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Let's focus on this one area for now.

You agree that Salary doesn't get added to GDP for goods produced.  

So there's that.

For services, if I work for a company that charges an American firm 10X my salary for my services, what is the calculated value of the exported services?  My salary, or the amount of money that flows into Canada for my work?

Sigh.  In fact it does.  As i said there are three methods of calculation and salary is in fact one.

Here - let me try to slow it down for you.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Forecast

Definitions

Gross Domestic Product (GDP): GDP is the total of all goods and services produced within the boundaries of a country. For example, Canada’s GDP includes goods and services produced by Canadian and foreign-owned corporations inside Canada, but it does not include goods and services produced by Canadian corporations outside Canada.

• GDP at basic prices: Equals GDP at market prices, minus taxes and subsidies on products.
• GDP at market prices: The gross value at market prices of all goods and services produced by the economy, plus taxes but minus subsidies on imports.
• GDP (expenditure-based): Equals the total expenditures of the four sectors of the economy (individual residents, individual non-residents, businesses, and governments).
• GDP (income-based): Equals the total earnings from the two factors of production (labour and capital), plus taxes but minus subsidies.

Gross National Product (GNP): GNP is the total of all goods and service produced within the boundaries of a country, minus goods and services produced by foreign-owned businesses inside the country, plus goods and services produced by domestic-owned businesses outside the country. This was once the most common measure of national wealth production but has, in most cases, been replaced by GDP.

https://edata.conferenceboard.ca/e-data/data/gdp.aspx

So absolutely salaries have a direct impact on gdp.

Here's statcan reporting income based gdp which goes into the total GDP calculation.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610010301

 

I could post a bunch of other ones.   So.   I knew that long ago, but anyone could find that information and realize that wages do play a direct role one way or another just with a few web searches.

 

So the question becomes - why are  you trying to twist the facts here?  Why not just look it up and be honest and accurate?

 

[CdnFox]

33 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Let's focus on this one area for now.

You agree that Salary doesn't get added to GDP for goods produced.  

So there's that.

For services, if I work for a company that charges an American firm 10X my salary for my services, what is the calculated value of the exported services?  My salary, or the amount of money that flows into Canada for my work?

And now that i've demonstrated you were entirely wrong with this one area, lets move on to the next area and see if we can't continue your education a little further.

Here's an article which happens to address both the issues i mentioned

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-immigration-creates-mirage-economic-prosperity-economists-2023-07-26/

the first impact of immigration in surplus of our capacity to provide new resources is increased inflation and pressure on resources:

Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has said immigration adds to both supply and demand, but the overall effect has increased the need for higher interest rates. While immigrants helped ease a labor shortage, they added to consumer spending and housing demand.

"If you start an economy with excess demand (and) you add both demand and supply, you are still in excess demand," he said about immigration earlier this month after hiking rates to a 22-year high of 5.0%.

So that ends that debate. Immigrants definitely increase demand and put upwards pressure on inflation IF they result in a population increase greater than our increase in ability to provide for them.

THe next post addresses the second part.

[CdnFox]

13 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Let's focus on this one area for now.

You agree that Salary doesn't get added to GDP for goods produced.  

So there's that.

For services, if I work for a company that charges an American firm 10X my salary for my services, what is the calculated value of the exported services?  My salary, or the amount of money that flows into Canada for my work?

So we've settled the initial question of how GDP is calculated (it definitely includes incomes for certain sectors),

Now we've settled whether or not immigrants increase inflation.  In cases where the rise in population outstrips our capacity to provide -  YES they absolutely do.

Final one - do they reduce gdp per capita?

Back to that article from before

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-immigration-creates-mirage-economic-prosperity-economists-2023-07-26/

"The Canadian economy on a per-capita basis is flat on its back," said David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research. Through population growth "you can create this mirage of economic prosperity, but in the end that's what it is, a mirage," he said.

So - as you can see, starting in about 2015 the immigration started to create a drag on our GPC numbers.  OUr GDP kept going up - but per capita started to slow down. .

Then we hit a blip for covid. But - after covid we went back to sky high immigration, and low and behold, our GDP per capita has never recovered to it's pre covid state, which was already flat, and now we're not even doing that well.

 

And when you put that against the immigration chart-  surprise surprise it matches up pretty much one to one.  Larger increases in immigration slows or stops gdp per capita growth and now we're rapidly falling behind other countries.

 

That means we have less tax to pay for services than other countries and less money going into our economy per person and a lower quality of life than we should have had.

Edited December 26, 2023 by CdnFox

[CdnFox]

Hope that cleared it up for you Mike.  There is absolutely no doubt -

 

IF the gov't wanted to increase gdp  they could have just borrowed money.

Immigration beyond our capacity drives up interest rates and inflation (the two go hand in hand).

Immigration beyond our capacity drives down the GDP per capita ratio which lowers our quality of life.

 

And that means that the current inflation/interest we've been enjoying,  (including runaway rents and house prices) as well as the declining quality of life, is very much a result of trudeau's immigration policy.

Game set and match.

[Michael Hardner]

Thanks for the four (!) post response.

 

I'll look at this today...

[NAME REMOVED]

3 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Thanks for the four (!) post response.

 

I'll look at this today...

happy Boxing Day

Edited December 26, 2023 by DUI_Offender

[Michael Hardner]

1 hour ago, DUI_Offender said:

Is that after you fill your Tranny lover's ass with your spunk?

Excuse me? ?

[Michael Hardner]

@CdnFox ok - again I'm looking at this one area, specifically where I said:

"Their salaries don't total their contribution to GDP.  People don't earn "GDP Dollars""

And you responded:

"They absolutely do.  How did you think that services are calculated for gdp? Did you think gdp was just durable goods or something?  There are three ways to calculate gdp with different ones used for different sectors and without a doubt wages is one. When a nurse provides an hour's worth of service - it's part of the "Goods and SERVICES" that gpd calculates.  SOME gov't services use total expenditure instead, but wages make up a portion of that.

It is absolutely the case where a service is provided rather than a good produced that the people's wages will be counted towards GDP in one method or the other, either directly or as part of the whole department's expenditure."

Now, I am far less strident than you when discussing economics, mostly because it's a topic in which I'm still learning a lot but also because the best teachers I listen to are usually very cautious with their language.

It seemed basic to me, ie. how GDP is calculated, so I was confused as to why market value of goods/services produced wasn't mentioned in your method.  When you said "salaries have an impact on GDP".  I couldn't figure out what you were talking about.  Turns out what we have is a quibble.

After reviewing the material you posted, which took some time, I realized you aren't calculating 'real GDP" as it's called.

Here's a summary from the CD Howe institute: https://www.cdhowe.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/What to the Different Measures of GDP Tell Us.pdf
 

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There are three basic ways of measuring GDP (Moyer et al. 2006). These are the sum of all expenditures, total incomes and industry production. Expenditure is the best known, since it is based on the famous equation Hicks introduced in 1940 that is still taught in basic economics courses – GDP equals the sum of personal consumption, investment,2 government purchases and exports minus imports.3 Under the income approach, incomes consist of all income earned by labour and capital, mostly labour income and profits, plus a mixture of the two earned by farmers, small businesses and renters. Finally, industry GDP is the sum of the value added by goods-andservices producing industries, broken down into 21 major industry groups such as manufacturing, construction, finance, retail trade and so on (valueadded is the gross output of an industry minus the inputs it purchased from other industries).

They (and I) have always referred to the expenditure-based model and they say:
 

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First, primacy should be given to the expenditure-based measure of real GDP (which is the average of the current dollar income and expenditure measures, adjusted for prices to get real GDP),

What you are calculating IS a valid way of measuring GDP, but the income based method also provides for profit as "income" which might not be obvious.   It's there on the pages you provide.

So if immigrants come to Canada and earn fewer dollars, under the income-based method you use, the surplus/profit paid out to owners would be higher so that GDP would still increase.  Whether it increases per capita is dependent on how much economic output the additional worker is providing.

I'm glad you posted that as I learned about this alternative method of calculating GDP.  Let me know if you agree with my assessment here before I move on to the other points.

And to reiterate: using the recent slowdown itself isn't evidence that "immigration" reduces GDP or GDP/capita any more than citing immigration during boom times would be evidence that it increases it.  You have to go deeper than that.  And to reiterate once more: every liberal and conservative government has used immigration as an economic tool. 

See the graph.

https://www.newcanadianmedia.ca/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/Screenshot-2023-04-02-at-11.40.35-AM-1536x862.png

Final iteration: none of what I am saying is meant to refute the idea that the high immigration we're seeing now is a bad idea.  I actually think that it is, but as usual I am concerned with tidying up the public sphere and shooting down oversimplified assertions.

Edited to add: Please read that last paragraph twice before you reply, thanks.
 

Edited December 26, 2023 by Michael Hardner