338 Polling October 8th - CPC still set to win a majority at 39 percent.

[CdnFox]

The CPC still is well out in front of the Libs.  THey've probably plateaued a bit for now - they can't go MUCH higher in between elections I think, now it's all about firming up that base and waiting for the election

The ndp is still doing very badly which almost guarantees no election for a while.

 

 

[Michael Hardner]

My guess is that Trudeau is too selfish/deluded to step down.  Barring a miracle economic turnaround the Liberal Party will be decimated.

Poilievre will also not be able to fix our problems, I reckon.

Two elections out... the world will be very different and a younger generation will be more difficult to fool...

[OftenWrong]

27 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Poilievre will also not be able to fix our problems, I reckon.

He can fix many things if he wants to. At thr very least he hopefully won't add unnecessary problems.

All Canadians want is for someone sane to lead the fed, and shut the hell up.

[OftenWrong]

31 minutes ago, Michael Hardner said:

Two elections out... the world will be very different and a younger generation will be more difficult to fool...

Not sure what reality you're in but young people are usually easiest to fool.

[Michael Hardner]

2 hours ago, OftenWrong said:

Not sure what reality you're in but young people are usually easiest to fool.

In online times, age is a hindrance...

 

[PIK]

With PP win, one thing that changes over night will be the mood of the country. May not last, but it will feel good for awhile. Lol

[Michael Hardner]

5 minutes ago, PIK said:

With PP win, one thing that changes over night will be the mood of the country. May not last, but it will feel good for awhile. Lol

Sure.. happens every election.

Folly.

[CdnFox]

12 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

My guess is that Trudeau is too selfish/deluded to step down.  Barring a miracle economic turnaround the Liberal Party will be decimated.

Poilievre will also not be able to fix our problems, I reckon.

Two elections out... the world will be very different and a younger generation will be more difficult to fool...

ROFLMAO - well that's very left wing of you

People are having trouble with food now, not to mention homes and such

PP definitely will be in a position to make immediate changes that will have an immediate effect and more permanent changes that will be more effective over time.  The banks have already called out the liberals for not making those changes already, and more can be done.

Hell - just NOT effing up so bad all the time and pissing away money would be a major improvement.

What is more likely to happen is in the first 4 yeas pp kicks ass and things get better. IN the second 4 years they build on those improvements and we can see the end in sight, where we've reversed most of the severe damage done and can start to really build our future. And the libs will show up, lie their asses off and promise the world and get back in and ruin it all and drive us to poverty again.

 

[PIK]

7 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

Sure.. happens every election.

Folly.

Not as much as this is going to be. 

[TreeBeard]

39% seems underwhelming.  

[CdnFox]

2 minutes ago, TreeBeard said:

39% seems underwhelming.  

LOL - sure it does  

[Nexii]

16 hours ago, Michael Hardner said:

My guess is that Trudeau is too selfish/deluded to step down.  Barring a miracle economic turnaround the Liberal Party will be decimated.

Poilievre will also not be able to fix our problems, I reckon.

Two elections out... the world will be very different and a younger generation will be more difficult to fool...

That seems the most likely. Red, blue, orange, none of them really have a vision that differs from the status quo. Which is why the CPC is only up a few percent, despite pretty much everyone being tired of Trudeau at this point. 

Oddly enough the status quo has to get even worse, and probably will. At that point a more extreme 'change' party could be viable especially in our FPTP system. What flavor that is, is really hard to say right now

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Nexii said:

That seems the most likely. Red, blue, orange, none of them really have a vision that differs from the status quo. Which is why the CPC is only up a few percent, despite pretty much everyone being tired of Trudeau at this point. 

Oddly enough the status quo has to get even worse, and probably will. At that point a more extreme 'change' party could be viable especially in our FPTP system. What flavor that is, is really hard to say right now

I dunno girl - i usually appreciate your political insights but i think you're WAY off base there.

first off - being up 10 percent is pretty massive. Expecially over the summer and mid term, usually people don't care that much. And that's the nicest polling, some has them up more like 12.

And while nobodys putting their platform on the table this early, even now i think we can see there's some pretty radical differences for the vision for the future from all 3 of the major players, not that the ndp really counts.

The cpc obviously will be about decentralizing powers, reducing taxes substantially, moving towards balanced budgets, reducing immigration a little, and aggressively removing red tape and barriers and trying to improve productivity.

The libs are high taxes, epic immigration, big deficits, and a number of other policies entirely at odds with the cpc vision

 

I don't think there's ANY hope for a 'more extreme' party. I agree things will probably get a little worse, but that will drive voters into the arms of a moderate party that has a record for good fiscal performance and the CPC fits that bill nicely - which is why they're in majority territory now.

 

[Nexii]

17 hours ago, CdnFox said:

I dunno girl - i usually appreciate your political insights but i think you're WAY off base there.

first off - being up 10 percent is pretty massive. Expecially over the summer and mid term, usually people don't care that much. And that's the nicest polling, some has them up more like 12.

And while nobodys putting their platform on the table this early, even now i think we can see there's some pretty radical differences for the vision for the future from all 3 of the major players, not that the ndp really counts.

The cpc obviously will be about decentralizing powers, reducing taxes substantially, moving towards balanced budgets, reducing immigration a little, and aggressively removing red tape and barriers and trying to improve productivity.

The libs are high taxes, epic immigration, big deficits, and a number of other policies entirely at odds with the cpc vision

 

I don't think there's ANY hope for a 'more extreme' party. I agree things will probably get a little worse, but that will drive voters into the arms of a moderate party that has a record for good fiscal performance and the CPC fits that bill nicely - which is why they're in majority territory now.

 

I very much doubt all that re: the CPC. Harper increased our debt to GDP ratio.

Unfortunately, Canada is in a much worse situation today than during the Harper years. Simply treading water isn't going to get us out of the deep end. 

The housing crisis necessitates centralization of the banking, finance, construction, real estate sectors and more. The free market has utterly failed -- or perhaps it's not as 'free' as we think. CPC has a very muddled view here, they say they want to cut red tape but also want to create a system where municipal governments get funding or not based on construction. So that pretty much will amount to even more inefficient bureaucracy which is what got us here. 

We're probably 5-10 years out from it, but there will come a point where the idea of government just building mass housing themselves won't seem so radical. As will other proposals to dramatically slash government spending in certain areas. But the CPC haven't been running on that. Somehow we're going to keep all our programs at the same level of service without spending more and having more immigrants. It's magical thinking. Granted, the Liberal and NDP parties are even worse in this regard

Edited October 10, 2023 by Nexii

[CdnFox]

1 minute ago, Nexii said:

I very much doubt all that re: the CPC. Harper increased our debt per capita.

During the worst economic downturn since the great depression? Yeah - i guess so  

But he brought the booiks back to balance and in the end our GDP to Debt ratio which is the more important figure of the two was down and extremely low.     Debt will always tend to go up relative to population because of inflation. If it stays the same then that means it's actually falling due to the effect of inflation.  But as long as gdp rises to match or exceed that you're fine.

Now it's a hell of a lot higher than it's ever been. So yeah -  BIG difference.

13 minutes ago, Nexii said:

Unfortunately, Canada is in a much worse situation today than during the Harper years. Simply treading water isn't going to get us out of the deep end. 

It's in that position due to the mistakes of the liberals. All that needs to happen to rectify that is to STOP that,

Unfortunately the damage is severe enough that even tho the CPC will be a major improvement - it will still take decades to undo all the damages. Todays children's children may see a Canada that is truly performing up to it's potential. But things can get better on the way, and that's all we can do.

19 minutes ago, Nexii said:

The housing crisis necessitates centralization of the banking, finance, construction, real estate sectors and more. The free market has utterly failed -

This is an utterly preposterous conclusion. There is nothing remotely 'free' about the current market.  Every single aspect of it is regulated heavily.  It takes between 3 and 5 years just to build a townhouse complex or apartment - of which only about a year will actually be construction. Rents are so over regulated it isn't funny - and now landlords have suddenly been forced to pay for the 'social safety net' - expected to take a loss rather than evict tenants during covid for example, raising rents LESS than the cost of inflation by law, etc etc.

Nothing needs to be centralized - we need to get out of the way of the free market and let it do it's job.  At least as much as possible.  That means more homes and that means lower prices.  But it'll take years to catch up.

23 minutes ago, Nexii said:

where the idea of government just building mass housing themselves won't seem so radical.

they can't really. And they don't need to. There's nothing the gov't can do that private enterprise can't do faster and cheaper and better if it's not being interfered with.

If the feds want to do anything it'll be to pressure the provinces into taking back the approval process for housing and make some of the other necessary changes to let things happen.

Right now the way things are the developers are forced to ALWAYS build slightly fewer homes than we need for our population growth. We have to change things till that's no longer true.

25 minutes ago, Nexii said:

As will other proposals to dramatically slash government spending in certain areas. But the CPC haven't been running on that

PP has literally been running on that.

The thing is, you can't just slash spending. That causes more problems than it solves. But its' not hard to cut it over time and still deliver services if you're smart about it.  And a lot of the services we can cut right away we dont' need.  Sorry CBC.

 

Inflation happens when you dump billions of unearned dollars into the economy. As long as all the dollars in the economy are earned inflation isn't going to be a serious problem

SO job one - get spending under control and cut the massive amount of money flooding into the economy.

Job two is get immigration under control with highy targeted and reduced numbers.  That buys you time - about 3 years.

Job three - cut red tape and bureaucracy every single place you can as fast as is reasonable, and with a special focus on housing construction.

You may need to incentivize the developers - do what you have to to get construction up. Do it and hopefully the increase in homes will start showing up by the end of those 3 years you bought yourself with immigration cuts.

None of this is complex but most of it is absoltuely against the liberal dogma and ideology. That's the difference.