How Trudeau will work very hard on dumping FPTP

[On Guard for Thee]

Trudeau's one big hurdle will be getting the provinces on board. And he has not stated he favors PR. He has said he will consult with the provinces before he decides what type of reform to pursue. People will have to study up on how various forms of reform work.

[Big Guy]

Trudeau's one big hurdle will be getting the provinces on board. And he has not stated he favors PR. He has said he will consult with the provinces before he decides what type of reform to pursue. People will have to study up on how various forms of reform work.

If not some kind of proportional representation system then what other (different from FPTP) could he consider and still maintain a democracy?

In 2007, Ontario considered a MMP form of PR. It was not adopted but they did not require federal permission.

Why would the provinces have to be consulted? I understand that provincial and federal boundaries are different:

"Are federal and provincial electoral boundaries the same?

In most cases, no. The only province that currently has a majority of matching federal and provincial electoral boundaries is Ontario. All other provinces have completely different federal and provincial electoral boundaries.

During Ontario's last redistribution exercise, held in 2004, the province decided to align the electoral districts of southern Ontario with the federal districts, but to leave its northern electoral districts unchanged. This explains why Ontario currently has 106 federal districts but 107 provincial districts. For its next redistribution, the province may or may not choose to adopt the new federal electoral districts."

Unfortunately, federal and provincial gerrymandering is allowed with any government currently in power trying to protect its areas.

[Big Guy]

To overthere:

Your OP was "And replacing it with ranked ballots

Why?

Because it virtually ensures we'll have Liberal Governments for a very very long time."

And now:

"There is no chance whatsoever that Canada will see any form of proportional representation. There is no reason at all for Trudeau to implement a system that does not favour his party, so he won't. It's pretty much that simple. Proprep would ensure that he and every subsequent govt would be in minorities and coalitions. What could possibly be his motive for choosing proprep?

Respectfully, why the change in opinion?

[On Guard for Thee]

If not some kind of proportional representation system then what other (different from FPTP) could he consider and still maintain a democracy?

I suspect he will try to go for a preferential ballot.

[Big Guy]

I suspect he will try to go for a preferential ballot.

Small point but I guess the confusion is that I had thought that preferential ballot is a form of PR. I may be mistaken.

[overthere]

To overthere:

Your OP was "And replacing it with ranked ballots

Why?

Because it virtually ensures we'll have Liberal Governments for a very very long time."

And now:

"There is no chance whatsoever that Canada will see any form of proportional representation. There is no reason at all for Trudeau to implement a system that does not favour his party, so he won't. It's pretty much that simple. Proprep would ensure that he and every subsequent govt would be in minorities and coalitions. What could possibly be his motive for choosing proprep?

Respectfully, why the change in opinion?

No change in opinion Big Guy. Ranked/preferential ballots are not really a form of proportional representation.

Trudeau's one big hurdle will be getting the provinces on board. And he has not stated he favors PR. He has said he will consult with the provinces before he decides what type of reform to pursue. People will have to study up on how various forms of reform work.

There is no requirement at all to 'get the provinces on board'. Consultation with the provinces does not in any way imply that it is binding or has any influence on what happens federally.

Don't you think that the Liberals had plenty of time to 'study up on how various forms of reform work'? I think they had about ten years of staring up the organzational colon of the Cons and NDP - ten years of being the third party. They came up with two big questions:1. How do we get back into the PMO office? and 2. How do we insure that we never again end up in that posiiton?

Justin Trudeau was the answer to the first question.

And ranked ballots are the answer to the second question.

Like this :

(In 2014, Liberal party delegates voted in favour of a motion that considered “a preferential ballot and/or a form of proportional representation.”) ......Last week, all NDP MPs were joined by Green party MPs and other Independents in voting for my House of Commons motion that would make 2015 the last election to be conducted under a “winner-take-all” voting system like the one we currently have, and that would commit MPs to seek to replace it with a mixed-member proportional representation system. Sixteen of 31 Liberal party MPs voted with the NDP in favour of my motion—a major breakthrough, given that the Liberal party has an official policy that does not support proportional representation.

However, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau himself voted against the motion, alongside the other half of the Liberal parliamentary caucus.

In so doing, he reaffirmed the strong opposition to proportional representation that he has voiced in the past. Trudeau seems unbothered by a system that allows a party to receive far less than 50 per cent of the popular vote but be rewarded with well over 50 per cent of the seats in the House, e.g., when the Conservatives’ 39.5 per cent of the popular vote in the 2011 general election translated into what we call a “false majority” of 54 per cent of the seats in the House of Commons.

So, Trudeau is eliminating any kind of proprep from the forthcoming 'consultation', while adhering to the official Liberal Party policy for electoral reform. What does that leave but the other stated option: preferential ballots?

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-case-for-mixed-member-proportional-representation/

So the LPC is fully on board, the Commons doesnt matter, the schedule is there, he thinks he has an electoral madate, the choice of ranked ballots is made and the Opposition can do zip about it. 40% of Canadians love anything he does.

Like I said, the one and only hurdle is the Senate..

Its the only drama left, how will he circumvent the Senate?

[On Guard for Thee]

No requirement to get the provinces on board, but JT has said he will attempt to do so.

[overthere]

No requirement to get the provinces on board, but JT has said he will attempt to do so.

Oh stop, please. It does not matter at all what the provinces think, and nobody is going to consult them in any way that matters. What possible reason would Trudeau have to take their advice? Well, there will be a big show of taking Wynnes advice, naturally.

and your statement

And he has not stated he favors PR.

is incorrect. He has rejected PR , he voted against the NDP MMP proposal in the Commons in 2014. He does support preferentail ballots, it is Liberal policy to support either MMP or preferential, and he already rejected the former..

[On Guard for Thee]

Oh stop, please. It does not matter at all what the provinces think, and nobody is going to consult them in any way that matters. What possible reason would Trudeau have to take their advice? Well, there will be a big show of taking Wynnes advice, naturally.

and your statement

is incorrect. He has rejected PR , he voted against the NDP MMP proposal in the Commons in 2014. He does support preferentail ballots, it is Liberal policy to support either MMP or preferential, and he already rejected the former..

You'll have to ask Trudeau since he has gone on record as saying he will consult the provinces. The assumptions you have accumulated are certainly numerous.

[overthere]

OK, Trudeau will consult the provinces in some fashion. BFD, what does it matter and who cares?

How does that vaildate the result, and provide some detail on my assumptions.

From Trudeaus own mouth:

campaign promise

throne speech promise

timetable

elimination of proprep as an option

parliamentary committee to decide

Liberal Party policy

The only choice remaining according to his own statements is ranked ballots.

[SpankyMcFarland]

Surely STV is a type of preferential ballot?

I would regard even a ranked ballot system as better than FPTP in that it reduces the possibility of the least popular of three candidates getting in through vote-splitting.

[-1=e^ipi]

The liberals will "will not prejudice the outcome of that consultation process by committing to a referendum".

They think that a referendum is below them or something.

My money is that they will do ranked ballot instead of proportional.

[overthere]

Yep, it will be a Commons committee stacked with Liberals, a series of sideshows to 'consult' with First Nations, provinces, citizens and anybody sympathetic and/or sycophantic, then passage to much bravura in the Commons. Election promise made and met, and we get the benefit of Liberal govt forever. .

I see Trudeau himself serving 4 terms before stepping down, one more year in harness than Dad.

Then we will get the next white guy from Montreal as PM. Liberal, of course.

[Smallc]

Yep, it will be a Commons committee stacked with Liberals, a series of sideshows to 'consult' with First Nations, provinces, citizens and anybody sympathetic and/or sycophantic, then passage to much bravura in the Commons. Election promise made and met, and we get the benefit of Liberal govt forever. .

I see Trudeau himself serving 4 terms before stepping down, one more year in harness than Dad.

Then we will get the next white guy from Montreal as PM. Liberal, of course.

Your clairvoyance is amazing.

[Big Guy]

Why is it that some posters here assume that the more representative our elecrtoral system becomes then the more our our governments will move to the center or the left?

So what if it does? Is it not the intent of democracy that the government represents the people?

[overthere]

What is it that posters want from our electoral system?

I want a govt that is first and foremost stable.

We have had that for 150 years or so.

It is a reason that people move here.

FPTP has advantages and disadvantages, as do all systems.

What is the compelling reason that we change? We have just seen a change in govt under FPTP, an orderly and civil transfer of power that is not actually the norm in much of the world. We have had many such transfers. There won't be any for a long time if we go to ranked ballots.

our governments will move to the center or the left?

All of our govts do just that anyway in office.

For example, there is no question that Harper gained a majority because he moved to the center. And he more or less stayed there, and lost when he got company from the Liberals who did the same in 2015. The NDP have largely failed to budge much from the left, and despite at least a couple of charismatic leaders have never been the govt.

[-1=e^ipi]

I want a govt that is first and foremost stable.

North Korea's government is pretty stable.

If you want to prioritize stability that much then we should do away with elections altogether.

[overthere]

Hey, thanks for that trenchant analysis of North Korea vs Canada.

[Smeelious]

Hey, thanks for that trenchant analysis of North Korea vs Canada.

His point is valid though.

[Derek 2.0]

Interesting poll:

The poll by Insights West released Tuesday was conducted last month and involved about 1,000 Canadians. It suggests a high level of satisfaction, if not enthusiasm, with the current first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system. Fully 62 per cent of respondents said they were very or somewhat satisfied with the system as it stands, with 19 per cent saying they were "very satisfied." Only 25 per cent said they were dissatisfied with FPTP.

Furthermore:

But if the Liberal government decides to go through with electoral reform, Canadians overwhelmingly agree with the opposition Conservatives that a referendum should be held.

Nearly two-thirds, or 65 per cent of Canadians, said a nationwide referendum should definitely (37 per cent) or probably (28 per cent) be held on any changes to the electoral system. Seventeen per cent said a vote in the House of Commons was probably or definitely enough.

Granted it is only one poll, but it could be quite interesting to see the backlash the Trudeau Government would see if they do change the voting system without the input of Canadians first.

[Big Guy]

The last national referendum that passed that I can remember was to bring in conscription in 1942. Referendums usually refer to change an existing situation and the soft majority will seldom vote for change.

I would say that the Liberals ran on electoral change in the last election and their majority government gives them the mandate.

This is the same argument that Harper used for his omnibus bills during his tenure. He also felt that his majority gave him that mandate for unilateral changes in our privacy laws, legal system, party financing and all those other changes as a result of his majority legislation. I do not recall a referendum on any of those.

[cybercoma]

There was a referendum, the federal election. If they didn't support voting reform they should have voted Conservative.

[PIK]

A little off topic, trudeau was going to a rally for a provincial by election in ONT. Is that normal for PM's to do. Or should they keep their noses out of it.

[cybercoma]

He definitely shouldn't have. His public appearances are now supposed to be representative of the federal government and not party politics.

[Smallc]

I agree - that was something he shouldn't have done, favour or no.