Polls? Be suspicious of the New Hidden Closet

[August1991]

In 1975, if someone had phoned you (were you alive?) and asked whether you were homosexual, how would you have answered?

In 2015, if someone phones you and asks whether you will vote Conservative, for Stephen Harper, how would you answer?

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Welcome to the new hidden closet.

Edited August 3, 2015 by August1991

[Keepitsimple]

That's why polls understate the Conservative numbers. Conservatives by nature are..uh....conservative.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Charles Anthony
deleted quote of re-copied Opening Post

[cybercoma]

Good thing social desirability bias is controlled for through IVR and online polling. Person-to-person polling doesn't happen all that often anymore.

Edited August 4, 2015 by Charles Anthony
deleted quote of re-copied Opening Post

[August1991]

Good thing social desirability bias is controlled for through IVR and online polling. Person-to-person polling doesn't happen all that often anymore.

Social desirability? IVR? Whatever.

Cybercoma, you miss a broader point: Some people want to create a perfect world.

Edited August 4, 2015 by August1991

[Topaz]

The best way to answer a phone poll is to say....I haven't decided and I haven't and there is news of many like me than ever before.

[Evening Star]

Really? Voting for the party that has ruled the country for the last 9 years, that was endorsed by almost all print newspapers in the last election, carries the same sort of social stigma that homosexuality carried in 1975? Maybe I've just missed all the brutal Tory-bashing attacks and all the legal discrimination against the Tory way of life.

[Icebound]

Actually, I think small-l liberals are a lot more likely to be in the closet, because they tend to be pragmatic and know that some so-called "conservative" policies are useful.... but are also interested in social consciousness and know that's going to cost money and... and..decisions, decisions....priorities, priorities...

All the conservatives that I meet are very outspoken... There is only one path and they "know that they are right" ... so I am not at all convinced that there would be any more Conservatives in the closet than Liberals.

If there ARE conservatives in the closet, then they are obviously not very proud of their record, so maybe they should re-think their philosophy ? ? ?

...

Edited August 4, 2015 by Charles Anthony
deleted quote of re-copied Opening Post

[Vancouver King]

Canadian seniors quaking due to Greek pensions, closet Tory voters - this must be a right wing nightmare.

[August1991]

The best way to answer a phone poll is to say....I haven't decided and I haven't and there is news of many like me than ever before.

Topaz, politicians want more citizens like you!

"I haven't decided." That's a vote for the status quo.

======

Topaz, are you a closet conservative? Will you vote for a CPC candidate in your riding?

Edited August 4, 2015 by August1991

[cybercoma]

Social desirability? IVR? Whatever.

Cybercoma, you miss a broader point: Some people want to create a perfect world.

now you're talking nonsense because your point is lost with modern methods

[kimmy]

In 1975, if someone had phoned you (were you alive?) and asked whether you were homosexual, how would you have answered?

In 2015, if someone phones you and asks whether you will vote Conservative, for Stephen Harper, how would you answer?

I have a hunch that the social stigma of self-identifying as a Harper supporter in 2015 is pretty different from the stigma of self-identifying as a homosexual 40 years ago.

Welcome to the new hidden closet.

This same "hidden closet" was supposed to be the reason why Obama was going to lose 2 presidential elections in spite of polls that said he'd win. "People are afraid to say they won't vote for Obama because they don't want to look like racists," the logic went. It turns out that the pollsters had it right and the people counting on the "hidden closet" were wrong. It turns out that there weren't very many votes hiding in that closet. There won't be many votes in this one either, August.

-k

[Topaz]

The reasons I haven't decide is because I'm waiting for the debates to decide either Lib or NDP. I would never vote for the Tories because I've watched them in the House since 2006 and I don't like what I see and I don't like Harper attitude towards government and in my opinion he's not a PM. I've always voted for more than 40+ years and I will this time but this time is very serious business, since Harper volunteered our military into wars and treat the vets like crap!!! It's overtime for change.

[hitops]

The reasons I haven't decide is because I'm waiting for the debates to decide either Lib or NDP.

This actually explains a lot about how you think. I'm sure all 3 will bring out their shiniest ponies for you.

Edited August 4, 2015 by hitops

[TimG]

It turns out that there weren't very many votes hiding in that closet. There won't be many votes in this one either, August.

I think the pollsters have figured out their blind spots and the polls immediately before the election will be close to the final results. That said, polls now are meaningless because a lot can change in an election campaign.

[overthere]

I've always voted for more than 40+ years and I will this time but this time is very serious business, since Harper volunteered our military into wars and treat the vets like crap!!!

Then you must be absolutely furious with the Liberals, who took us into the Afghanistan war, Kosovo war, Korean war and WWII.

Vote NDP, they have never ruled and the only thing they will certainly go to war with is macroeconomic common sense.

Is the Hidden Agenda lurking on a shelf in the Hidden Closet?

[The_Squid]

What an idiotic notion that supporting the CPC has the same social connotations that admitting to being gay had 40 years ago.

And the fact that people actually agree with you is quite astounding. Talk about grasping at straws...

[bush_cheney2004]

...This same "hidden closet" was supposed to be the reason why Obama was going to lose 2 presidential elections in spite of polls that said he'd win. "People are afraid to say they won't vote for Obama because they don't want to look like racists," the logic went. It turns out that the pollsters had it right and the people counting on the "hidden closet" were wrong. It turns out that there weren't very many votes hiding in that closet. There won't be many votes in this one either, August.

This is comparing apples and oranges....the U.S. polls have a much better track record for accuracy. I can point to decades of American polling and election results that compare favourably, but much harder to do so in Canada. The folks at Ekos admit that they blew it when polling for the outcome of the 2011 Canadian federal election. Canada is not the U.S., and neither are the polls.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/accurate_polling_flawed_forecast.pdf

Edited August 4, 2015 by bush_cheney2004

[msj]

What an idiotic notion that supporting the CPC has the same social connotations that admitting to being gay had 40 years ago.

If only there were a way to prevent CPC supporters from marrying!

[August1991]

I have a hunch that the social stigma of self-identifying as a Harper supporter in 2015 is pretty different from the stigma of self-identifying as a homosexual 40 years ago.

I think that it depends in which milieu you circulate. In any urban centre in Canada, in general, you would be ostracized or worse if you openly stated that you were voting for Harper. IME, the Left is not a tolerant lot.

[Bryan]

I think that it depends in which milieu you circulate. In any urban centre in Canada, in general, you would be ostracized or worse if you openly stated that you were voting for Harper. IME, the Left is not a tolerant lot.

Unionized employees get that a lot too, especially public sector.

[Bob Macadoo]

I think that it depends in which milieu you circulate. In any urban centre in Canada, in general, you would be ostracized or worse if you openly stated that you were voting for Harper. IME, the Left is not a tolerant lot.

When you make these glib statements you lose your argument......they are nothing alike. CPC vocal voters don't get sodomized in back alleys by groups wanting to "correct" their behaviour. Make your claim without ridiculous "Hitler Comparisons".

[kimmy]

I think that it depends in which milieu you circulate. In any urban centre in Canada, in general, you would be ostracized or worse if you openly stated that you were voting for Harper. IME, the Left is not a tolerant lot.

The phenomenon you're alluding to is called "The Bradley Effect".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

But despite the belief that Obama's poll numbers were inflated by people falsely stating support to avoid appearing racist, that wasn't the case.

You're stating the belief that Harper's poll numbers are being deflated by people falsely denying their support, to avoid appearing uncool to their urban hipster friends. That won't be the case either. People aren't afraid that what they tell a telephone pollster will affect their social standing.

The areas where supporting Harper could make you a social pariah-- Montreal, urban Toronto, urban Vancouver-- don't elect Conservative MPs anyway.

-k

[Evening Star]

In any urban centre in Canada, in general, you would be ostracized or worse if you openly stated that you were voting for Harper.

Cite? What does "or worse" mean? What social penalties are Tory voters experiencing, exactly?

[Topaz]

I like to know what method do Canadians vote federally? By that, I mean, pencil checking a box, or are they all the same across the country, unlike the ways Americans have.

[Smallc]

I like to know what method do Canadians vote federally? By that, I mean, pencil checking a box, or are they all the same across the country, unlike the ways Americans have.

In the U.S. the elections are run by the states. Here they're run by Elections Canada.