Is Canada the next Superpower

[GostHacked]

This OP was focused on the future, not today.

Canada will never be a superpower.

[Moonlight Graham]

This OP was focused on the future, not today.

Maybe hypothetically 100 or 150 years from now. Climate change would have to thaw all of the tundra and permafrost north of the beginning of hudson's bay. Then massive immigration from large populations like China and India and/or some kind of domestic baby explosion I don't see happening any time soon. Then we have to somehow match or surpass the US (and Russia, who would also benefit from rising earth temperature) in power.

Canada has some good things going for it, like geographic strategic location, very large land area, and natural resources as mentioned. But climate and birth-rate is the main thing preventing any chance to be a superpower.

[-1=e^ipi]

The article is preaching to the choir. Nationalism deludes people. There are articles in other middle powers such as Turkey, Japan, Brazil and Pakistan asking if those countries will be the next superpower and the people will read it. Why? Because people believe what they want to believe.

Canada will not become a superpower (unless we merge with the United States) for 1 primary reason: population.

- Its percentage of arable land, at 4.6 per cent, is relatively small, but this probably will increase as climate change proceeds and the glaciers retreat. Basically, there is room for a lot more people in Canada. Its percentage of arable land, at 4.6 per cent, is relatively small, but this probably will increase as climate change proceeds and the glaciers retreat. Basically, there is room for a lot more people in Canada.

Tundra won't become fertile soil just because temperatures change. Accumulation of biomass for soil takes time. My guess is that the time scale of decay to equilibrium for vegetation to adapt to the new climate is on the order of several decades if not a few centuries.

But let's just ignore the above issue for the sake of argument. The current super power is the USA, so let's suppose for the sake of argument that Canada would need to obtain a comparable climate to the USA today to become a super power.

To make things simple, let's just compare the annual average temperature between Winnipeg (3.0 C) and Kansas (12.4 C) (this is probably a bit generous representation of Canada given that Winnipeg is in the south). So Canada would have to warm by ~9.4C. For the sake of argument, let's use an amplification factor of 2 (polar amplification factor is ~2.5, but not all of Canada is that close to the arctic). So global temperatures would have to warm by ~4.7 C for Canada to become a superpower. For the sake of argument, let's ignore the effect of the expected reduction in solar irradiance over the coming decades and the gradual cooling due to Milankovitch cycles so all that matters is changes in greenhouse gases. Only about 74% of GHG radiative forcing changes are due to CO2, so let's suppose that we would only need ~3.5 C to come from CO2. Now the Earth has warmed by 0.8 C since 'pre-industrial' times, so we would need an equilibrium change in temperature since 'pre-industrial' times of ~4.3 C.

If we were to use an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 2C, then this would suggest we would need atmospheric CO2 to reach 2^(4.3/2)*280 = 1243 ppm for Canada to 'become' a super power; this is far more than the world will achieve in a century even under the most ridiculous scenarios such as RCP 8.5. So maybe two centuries? But even then it takes time (~200 years) for the Earth to reach the ECS, so maybe in 3 centuries? Although, let's be generous and assume an ECS of 3C (which is the upper limit of what the empirical data suggests the ECS could reasonably be). Then you would need atmospheric CO2 to reach 756 ppm (which it might by the end of this century under a generous business as usual emission scenario), but again you wouldn't reach the ECS right away, so maybe the TCR (~1.5C) is more reflective. In any case, there isn't going to be enough climate change in a century for Canada to become a super power.

Edited June 19, 2015 by -1=e^ipi

[Bonam]

The assumption that average temperature needs to be the same as the US is not a well supported assumption, though. For example, the Soviet Union had a considerably lower average temperature than the US and yet was still a superpower for ~50 years. But anyway, it doesn't matter, not enough population. Even if Canada's climate were to suddenly match that of the US, it would take a long long time for the population to grow to be comparable.

[Bryan]

In large part, we have lost the will and ability to build infrastructure projects that are clearly of benefit to our country

While population and military might are certainly important, this point cannot be understated. It's vitally important that we start pushing through major infrastructure projects when they need to get done. Whether it's a highway, an energy plant, a pipeline, or a bridge, major projects for the greater need to be just built. We used to be able to just get things built, and we desperately need to go back to that.

[-1=e^ipi]

The assumption that average temperature needs to be the same as the US is not a well supported assumption, though. For example, the Soviet Union had a considerably lower average temperature than the US and yet was still a superpower for ~50 years. But anyway, it doesn't matter, not enough population. Even if Canada's climate were to suddenly match that of the US, it would take a long long time for the population to grow to be comparable.

Not sure if Russia is considered a superpower or not but I get your point. Although Russia is nearly twice as large as Canada and has a higher population density (arguably due to historical reasons).

While population and military might are certainly important, this point cannot be understated. It's vitally important that we start pushing through major infrastructure projects when they need to get done. Whether it's a highway, an energy plant, a pipeline, or a bridge, major projects for the greater need to be just built. We used to be able to just get things built, and we desperately need to go back to that.

If we had a larger population, we could take advantage of economies of scale and have more infrastructure.

[Bryan]

Russians are hard, tough people though. They thrive under conditions that most people would wilt from.

You could accommodate a larger Canadian population more easily if the right kinds of infrastructure were either in place, or at least ready to go. Not only do highways, bridges, power and telecommunication grids, etc have to be there for people to even want to try to move into our wide open spaces, but you can also attract a lot more immigration just to work on building such things.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Bryan

[Freddy]

Russians are hard, tough people though. They thrive under conditions that most people would wilt from.

You could accommodate a larger Canadian population more easily if the right kinds of infrastructure were either in place, or at least ready to go. Not only do highways, bridges, power and telecommunication grids, etc have to be there for people to even want to try to move into our wide open spaces, but you can also attract a lot more immigration just to work on building such things.

We used to be as tough as Russian. Something wrong happened, we changed.

As long as we were having 7 kids per family Canada was going to be a super power. Add our soft power philosophy and open to immigrants, And we could easily be pushing 50 million Canadians today.

With that kind of population I could see justification to build infrastructure.

here is a good example

I tried to order a specialized item yesterday. Even the most obscure back water countries had suppliers, I was forced to order through The USA. Canada is becoming irrelevant.

What went wrong?

People got soft and stopped having children.

I have no problem with Feminism, but it has one great flaw. It's self extincting. It will remove itself naturally from existence, because its hindering reproduction.

I wouldn't change a thing, But I'm not going to lie to myself and say we are doing great.

We might as well merge with the USA, Not doing so will only hurt us more and more as we move forward in this slow decline into extinction.

Edited June 19, 2015 by Freddy

[Topaz]

All the articles I've read say it will be China, the US and Mexico and right now Mexico is producing more autos than Canada and probably in time could beat the US. Since the education levels for Mexican is very low, they only pay $5.00 hourly wage ,but I'm not sure the workmanship is there.

[bush_cheney2004]

All the articles I've read say it will be China, the US and Mexico and right now Mexico is producing more autos than Canada and probably in time could beat the US. Since the education levels for Mexican is very low, they only pay $5.00 hourly wage ,but I'm not sure the workmanship is there.

The workmanship in Mexico is fine, and production costs are low enough to invest in continuous improvement. I drive a German automobile manufactured in Mexico, and would gladly buy another. Costs in Canada are too high, and it's not the USA's or Mexico's problem that Wynne wants to make costs even higher.

IMHO, Canada/Ontario better lose its pity-pot mentality that insists foreign multinationals owe them capital investment and a guaranteed piece of the pie. Canada is only 8% of Norte America's population. Put more Canadian capital at risk and do something instead of manufacturing more whine.

In Jim Mora's voice:

Superpower?! Don't talk about superpower! Are you kidding me? Superpower?! I'm just hoping we can win another GM model !

Edited June 19, 2015 by bush_cheney2004

[WestCoastRunner]

Superpower isn't about cars. Let's have vision for Canada. I pre-supposed that folks here would have vision to discuss Canada's future. We can have a greater population growth given the size of our country. Why are so many folks dismissing Canada's future power? We have the security financial building blocks in place. We need visionaries for this country, not stifling individuals sitting on the sidelines. This OP is about individuals with the ability for creative visions.

Edited June 20, 2015 by WestCoastRunner

[-1=e^ipi]

Let's have vision for Canada.

Okay. How about we become 1 with the United States. Then we will be a superpower.

We can have a greater population growth given the size of our country.

I guess an alternative is to join the Islamic Caliphate. Then we will be a superpower and have a high population growth. Win-win!

Why are so many folks dismissing Canada's future power?

Realism. I explained why climate change isn't going to be sufficient for the next 100 years.

I guess a 3rd option is to encourage rapid cyberization & advance in robotics and somehow use that to build a massive army of drones controlled by cyborgs; then natural resources will become more relevant relative to population.

So you have 3 options to make Canada a super power:

1. Merge with the USA.

2. Join the Islamic Caliphate.

3. Become cyborgs before the other countries do, although I suspect South Korea will beat us to this.

Take your pick. Maybe we can do all 3.

This OP is about individuals with the ability for creative visions.

You can believe you have wings as much as you want, but that isn't going to make you sprout wings and fly around like an angel.

[WestCoastRunner]

Okay. How about we become 1 with the United States. Then we will be a superpower.

I guess an alternative is to join the Islamic Caliphate. Then we will be a superpower and have a high population growth. Win-win!

Realism. I explained why climate change isn't going to be sufficient for the next 100 years.

I guess a 3rd option is to encourage rapid cyberization & advance in robotics and somehow use that to build a massive army of drones controlled by cyborgs; then natural resources will become more relevant relative to population.

So you have 3 options to make Canada a super power:

1. Merge with the USA.

2. Join the Islamic Caliphate.

3. Become cyborgs before the other countries do, although I suspect South Korea will beat us to this.

Take your pick. Maybe we can do all 3.

You can believe you have wings as much as you want, but that isn't going to make you sprout wings and fly around like an angel.

Ok, then, I guess we know your opinion.

[-1=e^ipi]

Ok, then, I guess we know your opinion.

Yes. Let's be the nation of Cybernetic American Muslims!

[Derek 2.0]

Superpower isn't about cars. Let's have vision for Canada. I pre-supposed that folks here would have vision to discuss Canada's future. We can have a greater population growth given the size of our country. Why are so many folks dismissing Canada's future power? We have the security financial building blocks in place. We need visionaries for this country, not stifling individuals sitting on the sidelines. This OP is about individuals with the ability for creative visions.

Canadians dismiss the potential of Canada as a Middle Power, let alone a Superpower.........Superpowers, since history back, have held two codependent themes: Economic and Military supremacy over equal and near peer potential foes........

No past Superpowers relied upon other nations for their defense.

[Freddy]

Canadians dismiss the potential of Canada as a Middle Power, let alone a Superpower.........Superpowers, since history back, have held two codependent themes: Economic and Military supremacy over equal and near peer potential foes........

No past Superpowers relied upon other nations for their defense.

A lot of our higher then average quality of life is due to the fact we have allowed ourselves to spend hardly anything on military. It free's up a unrealistic amount of money for social programs, that other countries wouldn't, out of a need to defend themselves. Edited June 20, 2015 by Freddy

[Freddy]

Superpower isn't about cars. Let's have vision for Canada. I pre-supposed that folks here would have vision to discuss Canada's future. We can have a greater population growth given the size of our country. Why are so many folks dismissing Canada's future power? We have the security financial building blocks in place. We need visionaries for this country, not stifling individuals sitting on the sidelines. This OP is about individuals with the ability for creative visions.

I say let the feminist run this place right into extinction.

[Derek 2.0]

A lot of our higher then average quality of life is due to the fact we have allowed ourselves to spend hardly anything on military. It free's up a unrealistic amount of money for social programs, that other countries wouldn't, out of a need to defend themselves.

To a large extent yes, likewise an unwillingness to use it to influence global poltics, economics and security.........both things Superpowers have been required to do since the Romans.

[Freddy]

To a large extent yes, likewise an unwillingness to use it to influence global poltics, economics and security.........both things Superpowers have been required to do since the Romans.

Canada has always used the method of soft power as a way of influencing global politics. Although in the last 10 years I have seen that soft power almost vanish. Edited June 20, 2015 by Freddy

[Derek 2.0]

Canada has always used the method of soft power as a way of influencing global politics.

Soft power is but one tool in the quiver of a Superpower though.........fore when soft power fails you're left with?

[Freddy]

Soft power is but one tool in the quiver of a Superpower though.........fore when soft power fails you're left with?

we are forced to join the USA in exchange for protection.

[GostHacked]

Soft power is but one tool in the quiver of a Superpower though.........fore when soft power fails you're left with?

A failed war on terror that has brought us more terror and instability?

[Freddy]

At this point we would be much better served as a part of the United States then by our own government. Let's take the pipeline project for example.

Let's take the fact suppliers have head offices in all the back water countries, but not in Canada , because they know we can just get it off the USA suppliers.

We are irrelevant as a country. And we will only become more irrelevant as time progresses forward.

The world see's canada as a extension of the United States consumption ability. Nothing more.

And even worse, we don't even benefit from that great advantage.

Edited June 20, 2015 by Freddy

[Derek 2.0]

we are forced to join the USA in exchange for protection.

In a sense, yes.

[Freddy]

In a sense, yes.

The next great world conflict this planet will see is likely, to force Canada to join the United States. We have no power to exercise our sovereignty. We simply exist because we are left by others to do so, not because we can stop anyone from taking it from us. Edited June 20, 2015 by Freddy