Ontario Budget 2014 -- Election

[cybercoma]

The buzz on Twitter seems to indicate that Wynne burned in the debate. Hudak appears to be the clear winner. Let's see if he gets a bump in the polls.

[jacee]

The buzz on Twitter seems to indicate that Wynne burned in the debate. Hudak appears to be the clear winner. Let's see if he gets a bump in the polls.

I howled at Hudak slithering down from "a million jobs" ... not denying it, distancing himself and referring to it as

"an argument among economists about how many jobs they're gonna create ... "

It'll be interesting to see where he goes from here, but I think the "million" idea is toast.

.

[WWWTT]

The buzz on Twitter seems to indicate that Wynne burned in the debate. Hudak appears to be the clear winner. Let's see if he gets a bump in the polls.

Really???

Not according to this poll!

Horwath gave the clear KO punches!

http://ri.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=A0LEViIthI5TOAkA60YXFwx.;_ylu=X3oDMTBybnV2cXQwBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2JmMQR2dGlkAw--/RV=2/RE=1401877678/RO=10/RU=http%3a%2f%2fwww.huffingtonpost.ca%2fpolitics%2f/RK=0/RS=QqUGyQeezcUJi8V7te._wHC0KXw-

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

Imagine. HuffPo readers picked Horvath. That's hardly a scientific poll.

[WWWTT]

I howled at Hudak slithering down from "a million jobs" ... not denying it, distancing himself and referring to it as

"an argument among economists about how many jobs they're gonna create ... "

It'll be interesting to see where he goes from here, but I think the "million" idea is toast.

.

Looks like all the pc have left is their die hard loyal voters now.

Don't count them out, but don't count them in until those eggs hatch.

With so many undecided voters up till tonight's debate, don't be surprised to see Tim in third come election night.

WWWTT

[CPCFTW]

Here's another more scientific poll with a different knockout punch:

http://www.cp24.com/news/hudak-winner-of-ontario-election-leaders-debate-poll-shows-1.1851955

Out of 957 people who watched the debate, 36 per cent believe Tim Hudak won the debate compared to 30 per cent who said Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne had the strongest performance. Only 26 per cent of respondents said they thought Andrea Horwath won the debate and seven per cent of people said they were unsure who came out victorious.

Of those polled, 29 per cent of people said Hudak delivered a “knockout punch” during the debate versus Horwath (14 per cent) and Wynne (12 per cent).

Edited June 4, 2014 by CPCFTW

[WWWTT]

Imagine. HuffPo readers picked Horvath. That's hardly a scientific poll.

Until more polls come out, then this will have to do.

Not just that, over 12 000 responded. That's a significant number!

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

Who cares how many responded? It's a convenience sample. Huffington Post readers are not representative of the Ontario electorate.

[WWWTT]

Here's another more scientific poll with a different knockout punch:

Less than 1000 responded and Tim gets 36%,that's a KO?

WWWTT

[Boges]

From what I did see Wynne looked shaky and rattled.

She needs to stop moving her arms like that when she talks.

[jacee]

The biggest reason industry has left Ontario is that in a global context it is too expensive to make things there.

And the biggest component is labour cost.

A temporary adjustment ...

worker protests in China surge

.

[Boges]

Internet polls mean absolutely nothing.

The Sun had a poll that said 58% would vote for the PCs

[CPCFTW]

Less than 1000 responded and Tim gets 36%,that's a KO?

WWWTT

Why are you asking me? I'm just reporting the results of a scientific poll. You can believe the Huffpost unscientific poll if you'd prefer.

The results of this poll are considered accurate within plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Edited June 4, 2014 by CPCFTW

[WWWTT]

Who cares how many responded? It's a convenience sample. Huffington Post readers are not representative of the Ontario electorate.

Oh no, very sorry my friend but it looks like you have not worked on many campaigns to recognize the significance of this poll!

One of the biggest parts of a campaign, if not the most important is to make sure your supporters come out on election day and actually vote for you!

True that the poll I provided may not indicate a swing to the NDP, but it is clear that the ONDP support isn't staying home election day. The ONDP now have 22 seats. From this debate, I will predict that the ONDP will remain at 22 seats minimum. Won't predict a max. number of seats yet. I remain optimistic however.

WWWTT

[jacee]

Internet polls mean absolutely nothing.

The Sun had a poll that said 58% would vote for the PCs

Well that makes sense for Sun readers.

So does HuffPost for its readers.

Context is important, and no media poll claims to be 'truth'.

.

[WWWTT]

From what I did see Wynne looked shaky and rattled.

She needs to stop moving her arms like that when she talks.

I bet she sorry for that too!

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

Less than 1000 responded and Tim gets 36%,that's a KO?

WWWTT

you don't understand inferential statistics at all, do you?

[WWWTT]

The Sun had a poll that said 58% would vote for the PCs

You have a link handy, I tried but couldn't find their poll numbers on the debate.

WWWTT

[WWWTT]

you don't understand inferential statistics at all, do you?

Sorry, what does that mean?

WWWTT

[cybercoma]

It means the Huffington Post poll asked people who tend to vote NDP who they thought won mind those people answered with the NDP leader. It doesn't matter how many people responded. The sample is not a true cross-section of the Ontario electorate, so you can't generalize that those numbers accurately reflect the voting population of Ontario. The Ipsos poll, despite having a smaller sample, was actually a random sample and not drawn from a group of people with common characteristics, like all of them being readers of a progressive newspaper. The Ipsos is more reliable for generalizing about Ontario's voting population because their sample is not biased.

[Boges]

Also CP24 is a news outlet that doesn't have an obvious bias.

[Boges]

You have a link handy, I tried but couldn't find their poll numbers on the debate.

WWWTT

Not on the debate. It was in the print issue a few days back.

[WWWTT]

It means the Huffington Post poll asked people who tend to vote NDP who they thought won mind those people answered with the NDP leader. It doesn't matter how many people responded. The sample is not a true cross-section of the Ontario electorate, so you can't generalize that those numbers accurately reflect the voting population of Ontario. The Ipsos poll, despite having a smaller sample, was actually a random sample and not drawn from a group of people with common characteristics, like all of them being readers of a progressive newspaper. The Ipsos is more reliable for generalizing about Ontario's voting population because their sample is not biased.

Yes I understood that, just not the term you used.

Regardless, ONDP support sounds like their coming out voting.

WWWTT

[jacee]

Out of 1,765 people who watched the televised event, 36 per cent said they believe Tim Hudak won the debate compared to 27 per cent who said Liberal Leader Kathleen Wynne had the strongest performance. Horwath was a close third with 26 per cent

The numbers have changed a bit.

A commentator said Hudak improved his gesture from an open handed shrug to an open handed appeal or something.

I guess Hudak won the all important gesture strategy.

We'll see if a gesture can win him an election, with his platform in tatters.

[Moonlight Graham]

This is going to be an interesting election day. No clear front-runner, no party doing extremely well or extremely poorly. Too close to call IMO.

It's all going to come down to how many people reject the Liberals due to the scandal. NDP and PC's almost certainly will pick up seats, but will the PC's grab enough? And how much will the NDP split the left-wing vote?