Ukraine crisis

[GostHacked]

You get this from RT or some other nut site? The Chinese are doing exactly what the West is doing in Africa, which is trying to cut deals for raw resources at the lowest possible price. And yes, that involves bribery, and yes, that involves mistreating the locals. The only real difference is that China literally could not care less about what the local government does in terms of human rights violations (see Sudan).

As far as "helping African communities" aid from China is dwarfed by what comes from the West. Not sure what you mean about "instead of dosing them with vaccines" unless you're one of those anti-Vaccine kooks.

Everything else you've written is purely speculation, much of it apparently originating on conspiracy sites.

It's not speculation. And tell me, what exactly is a conspiracy site?

[-TSS-]

I must say that as living and working in the Finnish capital-area I have a lot of Russian work-mates and some of them are just great people while others are intolerable pissheads. In other words, people like peole anywhere elese.

Having said that, if the push came to shove I wouldn't trust any of them and why would I? After all, this is not their country. Despite having great work-mates I'm not exactly convinced of the wisdom of the Finnish government to allow permanent residence of such a large and ever growing number of Russians. They could easily become pawns in a very cynical game.

[Big Guy]

I read this morning that Russia was ready to send "humanitarian" aid into East Ukraine. Kiev said - no way - any convoy will be seen as an invasion.

You would think that if it is really "aid" that a third party like the UN could investigate and escort that convoy. A few years ago Canada could have acted as that intermediary - but not these days. Harper has committed us to blindly supporting one side.

Latest news indicate that the "humanitarian" convoy from Russia to East Ukraine is intended by Russia.

[bush_cheney2004]

Canada has always favoured one side....and its own nation state interests...as it should.

[Big Guy]

The deadly chess match continues. CTV reports that Kiev has refused entry of a humanitarian convoy into Eastern Russia. While the cargo has been inspected, it seems that the fact that each truck (about 250 of them) has two drivers. Kiev argues that this is just another way of getting another 500 Russian soldiers into Ukraine. It is getting a little strange out there.

It does remind me of the Hungarian revolution. The Hungarians were making gains with protests in the streets. Russia sent in about 20,000 troops. One newspaper in Europe reported; To help Hungarians celebrate their new freedom, the Russian government has sent them 20,000 bottles of Vodka - each with its own waiter.

[ASIP]

CTV reports that Kiev has refused entry of a humanitarian convoy into Eastern Russia. While the cargo has been inspected...

This is all not true, I mean what CTV "reports". Actually, this is garbage.

[Big Guy]

This is all not true, I mean what CTV "reports". Actually, this is garbage.

Well then, what is really happening with this convoy?

Latest reports are that Kiev continues to put conditions under which this convoy will be allowed into Ukraine. Convoy has changed direction but is still headed towards Ukraine.

Kiev says that this is a "Trojan Horse" by Russia in a prelude to an invasion. Interesting. Why would the Russians need a Trojan Horse if they already are behind the rebels who control the border posts into Eastern Ukraine?

Russia says that Kiev is trying to starve out those fighters in Eastern Ukraine and Russia is only providing humanitarian aid. How tough is it to check the contents of the trucks in this convoy. If they are filled with Russian soldiers and military equipment would it not be very easy to expose that ruse?

There is a humanitarian problem in Eastern and Southern Ukraine because of the conflict. Kiev is not going to provide any aid or is anybody from the West. Russia is prepared to do so.

Kiev claims that those people in Eastern and Southern Ukraine are really Ukrainians who are supporting Kiev and want to stay Ukrainians. The Russian convoy, which is there to supply these people is still being refused entry into Ukraine to help those Ukrainians by Ukraine authorities.

The Russians have made a bold move on the chess board bringing up the "bishop" of humanity. Kiev (and the West) have no idea how to react to this move. They blunder into shoving a pawn in front of the bishop. The Russians have just made a brilliant move undercutting many of the arguments coming from Kiev. Time for Kiev to call a "time out" and re evaluate their strategy. This latest Russian move has made Kiev look as if it does not really care about those "Ukrainians" in Eastern and Southern Ukraine while Russia does care.

Advantage Russia.

Kiev needs a change in strategy to regain world sympathy to its cause.

Keep posted for the next move.

[On Guard for Thee]

Well then, what is really happening with this convoy?

Latest reports are that Kiev continues to put conditions under which this convoy will be allowed into Ukraine. Convoy has changed direction but is still headed towards Ukraine.

Kiev says that this is a "Trojan Horse" by Russia in a prelude to an invasion. Interesting. Why would the Russians need a Trojan Horse if they already are behind the rebels who control the border posts into Eastern Ukraine?

Russia says that Kiev is trying to starve out those fighters in Eastern Ukraine and Russia is only providing humanitarian aid. How tough is it to check the contents of the trucks in this convoy. If they are filled with Russian soldiers and military equipment would it not be very easy to expose that ruse?

There is a humanitarian problem in Eastern and Southern Ukraine because of the conflict. Kiev is not going to provide any aid or is anybody from the West. Russia is prepared to do so.

Kiev claims that those people in Eastern and Southern Ukraine are really Ukrainians who are supporting Kiev and want to stay Ukrainians. The Russian convoy, which is there to supply these people is still being refused entry into Ukraine to help those Ukrainians by Ukraine authorities.

The Russians have made a bold move on the chess board bringing up the "bishop" of humanity. Kiev (and the West) have no idea how to react to this move. They blunder into shoving a pawn in front of the bishop. The Russians have just made a brilliant move undercutting many of the arguments coming from Kiev. Time for Kiev to call a "time out" and re evaluate their strategy. This latest Russian move has made Kiev look as if it does not really care about those "Ukrainians" in Eastern and Southern Ukraine while Russia does care.

Advantage Russia.

Kiev needs a change in strategy to regain world sympathy to its cause.

Keep posted for the next move.

You don't seem to get it do you? If Russia is providing aid, then let the vehicles be checked. And it's not the UN BTW, it's the ICRC under who's auspicies this aid convoy proceeds although the ICRC says not so fast. If you trust Putin you're a sucker. Kiev isn't so gullible and why would they be?

[ASIP]

Well then, what is really happening with this convoy?

Ukraine has relieved its demands, which are actually international rules. The latest requirements are: any point of entry, Russian trucks may go on. But! The freight must be certificated by the Red Cross.

This what Russia is resisting - the cargo inspection. They claim the trucks are sealed, no inspection. Approx. one third of the convoy stays some 300 km from Ukrainian border. About 150 trucks... disappeared. Most analysts assume they are heading to Izvarino, a check point under control of separatists to enter Ukraine without any control.

The Russians have made a bold move on the chess board bringing up the "bishop" of humanity. Kiev (and the West) have no idea how to react to this move. They blunder into shoving a pawn in front of the bishop. The Russians have just made a brilliant move undercutting many of the arguments coming from Kiev. Time for Kiev to call a "time out" and re evaluate their strategy. This latest Russian move has made Kiev look as if it does not really care about those "Ukrainians" in Eastern and Southern Ukraine while Russia does care.

It's only your opinion. I see no any facts that can support this point of view. There are dozens of comments in Russian media. They do not agree with you.

Advantage Russia.

Quite opposite! Russian diplomacy sucks again. Refusing to follow international rules and procedures, constant lying about collaboration with the ICRC result in exposing hypocrisy of Russia.

[ASIP]

You don't seem to get it do you? If Russia is providing aid, then let the vehicles be checked. And it's not the UN BTW, it's the ICRC under who's auspicies this aid convoy proceeds although the ICRC says not so fast. If you trust Putin you're a sucker. Kiev isn't so gullible and why would they be?

Completely agree! These are exactly sentiments of people in Eastern Europe.

[On Guard for Thee]

Completely agree! These are exactly sentiments of people in Eastern Europe.

Certainly not hard to figure out Putin's strategy here. He can attempt to cast aspersions on Kiev for them holding up delivery of much needed humanitarian goods. After all he's just being a "nice guy" right? And if there happens to be the odd stash of AK's or BUK's well he can say someone must have infiltrated out convoy. Well after all there are some 280 trucks travelling many miles.

[Big Guy]

If you do not understand your enemy and underestimate his ability then you are doomed to failure.

This was a PR coup for the Russians;

The picture is one where Putin comes across as a humanitarian providing assistance to pro-Russian citizens while Kiev refuses to allow their own citizens to receive supplies. It is a brilliant PR move.

The reasons for this move by Putin are probably very different but the results have made Kiev look bad. I do not pretend to know what is on Putin's mind but you have to give him credit for this initiative.

As to what is on those trucks - who cares? According to reports the pro-Russian rebels control access points into Eastern Ukraine and even Kiev has said that the Russians have been bringing weapons back and forth at will through these points. Why smuggle anything in if you don't have to?

I have no intention to try to convince anybody about anything. You believe what you want to believe. I have been following this conflict for a long time. If you look back, I predicted that from what I saw, that Russia would probably annex Crimea and some Eastern oblasts would end up as buffers between Russia and Ukraine. I stand by that prediction.

I do not say that this is the way it should be or should not be. It does not really affect me either way. I am watching a chess match and applaud a good move when I see one. This was a good move by Putin.

I am not a cheerleader for either side - just reporting my observations of what is happening and giving an impartial opinion of what the world media is interpreting. If you disagree - good for you!

Edited August 14, 2014 by Big Guy

[ASIP]

This was a PR coup for the Russians;

No. This assertion does not pass a simple logic test.

This is not a PR move. This is a military operation. Has been done before. Czechoslovakia 1968, Georgia 2008.

IIf you look back, I predicted that from what I saw, that Russia would probably annex Crimea and some Eastern oblasts would end up as buffers between Russia and Ukraine. I stand by that prediction.

Could you please point out where you did this prediction? I mean Crimea.

Because before February of 2014 nobody outside of the Russian Army HQ predicted that.

With the buffer state you are way off. The idea of NovoRussia was to have a land corridor to Crimea. If you look at the map, the NovoRussia covers only a part of the Ukrainian-Russian border.

No Russian politician ever spoke about such a buffer. This is a nonsense. Unless in your terms the "buffer" means a "beachhead".

[ASIP]

Certainly not hard to figure out Putin's strategy here. He can attempt to cast aspersions on Kiev for them holding up delivery of much needed humanitarian goods. After all he's just being a "nice guy" right? And if there happens to be the odd stash of AK's or BUK's well he can say someone must have infiltrated out convoy. Well after all there are some 280 trucks travelling many miles.

That is not quite right. Russian forces already have enough weapons inside Ukraine. At least having a 100-km wide open border, weapon supply is not a problem. The goal is to have a 1000-men strong contingent of Russian military who are inside Ukraine kind of legally. This opens several game-changer options for Putin.

[Big Guy]

No. This assertion does not pass a simple logic test.

. Unless in your terms the "buffer" means a "beachhead".

Well It appears that we disagree on how this conflict is going to end. Let us wait and see how it does and then we can evaluate which of our predictions was correct.

[On Guard for Thee]

I see Putin has now done a little "switcho chango" with a large number of his trucks. Let's face it noone with a brain in their head trusts Putin. Let's see what's in those trucks.

[Big Guy]

I see Putin has now done a little "switcho chango" with a large number of his trucks. Let's face it noone with a brain in their head trusts Putin. Let's see what's in those trucks.

One of the previous great moves by Kiev was pointing at the rebels as the source of the BUK which downed the MH17. They even released pictures of the unit going back into Russia.

Either the border is so porous and easily crossed by the rebels and a Russian BUK so that Russians do not need these “humanitarian” trucks to get military supplies in

OR

The Russians have to use this “humanitarian” convoy to sneak in men and military supplies and could not have driven a BUK through a border check into the Ukraine to shoot down the MH17.

How can both situations exist?

[-TSS-]

It's not going to end well but things have escalated to a point of no return as there is no honourable retreat for either side.

[On Guard for Thee]

One of the previous great moves by Kiev was pointing at the rebels as the source of the BUK which downed the MH17. They even released pictures of the unit going back into Russia.

Either the border is so porous and easily crossed by the rebels and a Russian BUK so that Russians do not need these “humanitarian” trucks to get military supplies in

OR

The Russians have to use this “humanitarian” convoy to sneak in men and military supplies and could not have driven a BUK through a border check into the Ukraine to shoot down the MH17.

How can both situations exist?

Sneaking one truck with a BUK attached is a bit different than sneaking 280 18 wheelers don't you think?

[GostHacked]

The trucks are also being inspected before they pass into Ukraine. Russia agreed to those terms. If something gets through, blame the inspectors.

[Big Guy]

Sneaking one truck with a BUK attached is a bit different than sneaking 280 18 wheelers don't you think?

It would be a waste of time for us to argue silly details. Both sides are spewing unbelievable information so that nothing coming out of there is credible. There are no international journalists imbedded in either camp so that information has deteriorated into political spin.

Neither one of us has a clue as to what is really happening. There is 2,300 km of border between Russia and Ukraine. That is about 1,000 km less than between the US and Mexico. That is longer than the border between Canada and the states of Washington, Montana, North Dakota. Just how secure is that border? Remember that just a few years ago Russia and the Ukraine were friendly and trading partners.

I take no sides in this conflict but comment only on the logistics of what little truth is reported.

[On Guard for Thee]

Thanks for the little geography lesson. I suspect the border is certainly porous enough to sneack one BUK truck through. Probably not hard to bribe a border guard. Once again, 280 transport trucks is quite a different matter.

[-TSS-]

Are some people really gullible enough to believe in the sincerity of this humanitarian aid-convoy?

[ASIP]

Are some people really gullible enough to believe in the sincerity of this humanitarian aid-convoy?

It seems there are some.

To bring Humanitarian aid you don't need 280 trucks. 20 is enough. Hint: at least some trucks inspected by Western journalists are almost empty.

To bring weapons to Ukraine from Russia you don't need white 18-wheelers. Drab ones do the job. Every day.

Conclusion: 280 white 18-wheelers are needed only for bringing a thousand of Russian military personal inside Ukraine officially. Once they are there, let's provocations begin.

[Big Guy]

Thanks for the little geography lesson. I suspect the border is certainly porous enough to sneack one BUK truck through. Probably not hard to bribe a border guard. Once again, 280 transport trucks is quite a different matter.

Are some people really gullible enough to believe in the sincerity of this humanitarian aid-convoy?

It seems there are some.

To bring Humanitarian aid you don't need 280 trucks. 20 is enough. Hint: at least some trucks inspected by Western journalists are almost empty.

To bring weapons to Ukraine from Russia you don't need white 18-wheelers. Drab ones do the job. Every day.

Conclusion: 280 white 18-wheelers are needed only for bringing a thousand of Russian military personal inside Ukraine officially. Once they are there, let's provocations begin.

It appears that you all view that Big Guy is clueless as to border procedures on the Russian side of Ukraine, that he gullible enough to believe Russian propaganda and that "280 white 18-wheelers are needed only for bringing a thousand of Russian military personal inside Ukraine officially. Once they are there, let's provocations begin."

Good for you. Let us see what happens over the next few weeks.

You folks obviously know far more than Big Guy about what is happening on the ground then why even bother dealing with this delusional, gullible and misinformed poster?

Unless in the next few weeks you may be proven to be absolutely wrong.

I am looking forward to some verified information coming from that area.

Meanwhile. this "gullible" poster is not interested in trading insulting posts.