Creative Destruction

[Argus]

Basically, creative destruction is what happens when new products replace old products. Horse and carriage makers and blacksmiths all went out of business when the car came into effect. Of course, the up side was the auto industry employed a ton of people. New products give rise to new production lines and new jobs which replace the old. In theory.

Coming up, however, could be a whole new phase in creative destruction. Many organizations are now putting a ton of money into the next phase of automation. The previous waves of automation has already cost a lot of jobs over the past decades, but the increasing speed and power of computers is lending credence to the thought that we could soon have fully automated movement robots which could do such things as plant and harvest crops, drive trucks and cars and pilot aircraft, work construction equipment in both digging, moving, and building.

This phase of automation is unlikely to lead to a lot of new jobs, at least, not in that industry. Most of the machines will be largely built by other machines. It would be replacing 5 million driving jobs with 50 thousand system programming jobs. So where are the jobs going to come from in 20-30 years as this new wave takes hold? It seems like the only real upsurge in decent paying jobs over the past decade (other than government) has come in providing electronic services to each other, be they social, retail, or other. But can the system function when that's really all that anyone can do to make money? How many people can find profitable employment creating web sites and apps?

And what are all those people without a post-secondary education going to do with themselves? Work at Starbucks and Tim Hortons?How long before machines can do that cheaper? I mean, what do barristas really do but carry the product from the back counter to the front counter and take your money? Driving, construction, security, cleaning, farming, and retail can all easily be automated once the systems progress to a high enough level. Any uncomplicated job can be. So what do uncomplicated people do to earn a living? Hell, even the prostitutes and porn stars are going to lose out once they find a way to put an attractive silicon shell around those robots!

So what are people going to do then?

[Michael Hardner]

These questions have been asked for a long time. There's nothing wrong with talking about these things. I'd say that it may be time for us to plan for low/no employment on a large scale.

[Guest Derek L]

Though I don’t doubt automation will replace some career fields, I’d hedge there will still be jobs in the service industries since (some) people will still pay premiums for the “human touch”…….You might have a Roomba 2.0 cleaning the floors and toilets of a retirement home or hotel in a couple of decades, but the residents & guests will still want some human interaction…….Or look towards the premium people will pay for hand made goods, be they wall units or Lamborghinis etc....

Ultimately the Roomba we got from Crappy Tire last year still needs to be cleaned out and unstuck from the dinning room chairs from time to time………..I’ll worry about the Rise of the Machines after I’ve got my personal hovercraft……..

Edited January 27, 2014 by Derek L

[Michael Hardner]

Of course... McLuhan predicted correctly that the automation age would be the age of 'do it yourself'.

The way that it works is that the money finds its way to people eventually, often after a lot of fighting, and then everything moves forward as before.

[Guest Derek L]

Of course... McLuhan predicted correctly that the automation age would be the age of 'do it yourself'.

The way that it works is that the money finds its way to people eventually, often after a lot of fighting, and then everything moves forward as before.

Agreed……What are typewriter repairmen doing today anyways?

[Michael Hardner]

Agreed……What are typewriter repairmen doing today anyways?

Massage therapy.

I asked somebody what the guys who used to sell appliances in Eatons would be doing today and he said selling mutual funds.

[Guest Derek L]

Massage therapy.

I suppose going forward, if one is to agree with the premise of the OP, we’ll all have access to Nexus-6 N6FAB21416 models for that

More Human, then Human indeed......Just don't tell my wife

[bush_cheney2004]

...So what are people going to do then?

Same thing the rest of the "undeveloped" world does....chew khat and listen to Bob Marley records.

[cybercoma]

"What the bourgeoisie therefore produces, above all, are its own grave-diggers."

[Guest Derek L]

"What the bourgeoisie therefore produces, above all, are its own grave-diggers."

These will be robots right?

[Boges]

We can see this with Canada Post. Home delivery of paper can be efficiently be done electronically but people still have a stake in well paid unionized humans. So we see the LPC trying to protect Canada Post for purely political and not pragmatic reasons.

[Michael Hardner]

So we see the LPC trying to protect Canada Post for purely political and not pragmatic reasons.

And every party does this. The more intelligent and inquisitive a public is, the less likely they will be influenced by maudlin arguments. And so here we are.

Canada Post can retire its workers and not refill the jobs, and reallocate the funds to something that provides better service, better ROI, or as a spending cut.

[Argus]

Agreed……What are typewriter repairmen doing today anyways?

This has been the historic model. The concern I have is that the level of automation is changing that. Typewriter repairmen learned to repair something else. But what happens when the machines can repair the other machines? Horse adn buggy makers made cars instead. But more and more, machines are making the cars.

And all those software and programming jobs are disappearing to India...

[Argus]

I suppose going forward, if one is to agree with the premise of the OP, we’ll all have access to Nexus-6 N6FAB21416 models for that

More Human, then Human indeed......Just don't tell my wife

They have the doll, those Japanese maniacs. All they need to do now is get the Koreans to make it move a little... Kinda like the second clip, but a bit more...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Izah47UARWg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eEzH40l-Dg8

Edited January 27, 2014 by Argus

[Michael Hardner]

And all those software and programming jobs are disappearing to India...

No, that trend is stopping now.

[Boges]

No, that trend is stopping now.

Part of what's stopping that is the lowering of wages here.

You see all these Unionized jobs in Ontario leave, not to India but to the US.

It's why "Right to Work" might and should get some traction in Ontario for the coming Ontario election.

[Michael Hardner]

Part of what's stopping that is the lowering of wages here.

Maybe, but really we're talking about what I responded to, ie.

"And all those software and programming jobs are disappearing to India..."

These aren't really considered 'Unionized jobs'. I do think that slightly lower wages here, along with rising wages in India and mismanagement have all made offshoring less attractive in IT.

It's why "Right to Work" might and should get some traction in Ontario for the coming Ontario election.

No.

[Moonlight Graham]

"What the bourgeoisie therefore produces, above all, are its own grave-diggers."

Could be true in this case. If robotic automation takes on a mass scale, This is would be great for society in one way because it will free people from doing menial jobs, and robots can work 24/7 and do things potentially much faster and more efficient for less cost. It will free humans to do what robots can't, which is to think creatively and free our time for such things as discovering new technology, new political and philosophical ideas, making music and other arts etc.

But as the above Marx quote eludes to, automation could mean that many jobs will be replaced and wages won't be needed, meaning those who happen to be capitalists/bourgeoisie (those who own the means of production) will profit while workers will be unemployed...and this unemployment will mean worker discontent as well as economic slowdown since now-unemployed workers will have less/no income to buy bourgeoisie goods produced by these machines. The solution may be to break the bourgeoisie's monopoly on owning the means of production, meaning businesses could become cooperatives and therefore owned by all who work there, therefore profits and income is spread to a wide segment of society again instead of just owners and shareholders.

Or maybe those who used to be workers could become shareholders (investors) and gain income from the stock market, and have high income taxes for the rich business owners so that the middle-class can afford to invest in stocks. Workers may have some employment managing robotics/automation at companies and designing products before they're mass produced, but may also have more leisure time, leading to more employment demand in the arts/sports etc.

I think a key would be education in a mass automated society, getting more people to become ie: scientists to improve important areas like health medicine & overall technological discovery, and train more doctors/nurses/teachers/professors to keep us healthy and educated.

[Michael Hardner]

It will free humans to do what robots can't, which is to think creatively and free our time for such things as discovering new technology, new political and philosophical ideas, making music and other arts etc.

That is what has been happening since the industrial revolution, however private ownership ensures that the benefits of automation go to those who own the technology.

and this unemployment will mean worker discontent as well as economic slowdown since now-unemployed workers will have less/no income to buy bourgeoisie goods produced by these machines. The solution may be to break the bourgeoisie's monopoly on owning the means of production, meaning businesses could become cooperatives and therefore owned by all who work there, therefore profits and income is spread to a wide segment of society again instead of just owners and shareholders.

Or create a new form of public money that will be used to fund projects that provide community benefit.

I think a key would be education in a mass automated society, getting more people to become ie: scientists to improve important areas like health medicine & overall technological discovery, and train more doctors/nurses/teachers/professors to keep us healthy and educated.

Your take on this makes a lot more sense than other threads where people have indicated that robot teachers, doctors (and, yes, prostitutes) will take over soon.

[Moonlight Graham]

Your take on this makes a lot more sense than other threads where people have indicated that robot teachers, doctors (and, yes, prostitutes) will take over soon.

Well I'm actually for greatly expanded online courses for large classroom subjects (ie: 1st and 2nd year university courses), but they should still be taught by a human.. It would save a lot of money on tuition, and students class sizes of over 100 don't get much interaction with their professor anyways, most interaction occurs with TA's. The TA element can remain.

[Argus]

Your take on this makes a lot more sense than other threads where people have indicated that robot teachers, doctors (and, yes, prostitutes) will take over soon.

No it doesn't. It just makes you feel better. But it's not going to happen. We're not going to become a communist society. The owners of the means of production will continue to be the owners, and in all likelihood those who are not capable of learning a unique skill, all those store clerks and farmers and construction workers and drivers, will wind up on welfare. It is FAR more likely that we're looking at a future society in which about 10% of the population lives well and most of the rest scrape by any way they can.

[bush_cheney2004]

...It is FAR more likely that we're looking at a future society in which about 10% of the population lives well and most of the rest scrape by any way they can.

Most of the world already lives that way.

[On Guard for Thee]

Most of the world already lives that way.

And until we can get a handle on greed and "raping and pillaging", it will continue to get worse.

[Michael Hardner]

No it doesn't. It just makes you feel better. But it's not going to happen. We're not going to become a communist society.

No, because that system of government started to die in the 1980s. But, capitalism too will change and likely drastically as the idea of "labour" gets farther and farther from "toil".

It is FAR more likely that we're looking at a future society in which about 10% of the population lives well and most of the rest scrape by any way they can.

Even in this statement, though, you reveal a problem with using the rearview mirror to look at the future. Hunger, poverty are decreasing even as inequality increases. During the depression, how many spent their time playing xBox versus today ? What is the different between no jobs and leisure time ? Why isn't our work week getting shorter anymore ?

[TimG]

It is FAR more likely that we're looking at a future society in which about 10% of the population lives well and most of the rest scrape by any way they can.

Why is this any different than what has existed for 1000s of years? The only thing unique about 20th century is the 10% living well tended to be concentrated in a few countries. Now they will be distributed more evenly as they had been in prior centuries. Edited February 4, 2014 by TimG