Egypt's Arab Spring 2.0

[Boges]

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/07/02/egypt_protests_country_on_edge_as_morsi_rebuffs_army_ultimatum.html

CAIRO—President Mohamed Morsi rebuffed an army ultimatum to force a resolution to Egypt's political crisis, saying on Tuesday that he had not been consulted and would pursue his own plans for national reconciliation.

But the Islamist leader looked increasingly isolated, with ministers resigning, the liberal opposition refusing to talk to him and the armed forces, backed by millions of protesters in the street, giving him until Wednesday to agree to share power.

Newspapers across the political spectrum saw the army's 48-hour deadline as a turning point. “Last 48 hours of Muslim Brotherhood rule,” the opposition daily El Watan declared. “Egypt awaits the army,” said the state-owned El Akhbar.

It seems in this part of the world only theocratic muslims or military strongmen can rule a nation.

Things haven't improved much under Morsi but he was democratically elected. Anyone could have predicted electing a MB rep would have turned out this way.

But anyway, at what point will this nation be happy (by happy, I mean not at the constant brink of all out riots) and what leader will make this happen?

Edited July 2, 2013 by Boges

[GostHacked]

Some of the reports on CBC are idicating the military is standing with the people. They did that before when Mubarek was outsed. Glad to see them standing with the people in both cases.

[scribblet]

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2013/07/02/egypt_protests_country_on_edge_as_morsi_rebuffs_army_ultimatum.html

Things haven't improved much under Morsi but he was democratically elected. Anyone could have predicted electing a MB rep would have turned out this way.

But anyway, at what point will this nation be happy (by happy, I mean not at the constant brink of all out riots) and what leader will make this happen?

My thoughts too. Even though I still think the Muslim Brotherhood in control is a bad scenario for Egypt, as you say, he was democratically elected. What happens if they don't like the next elected leader, more riots and chaos.

Edited July 2, 2013 by scribblet

[PIK]

The army is the only group that can be trusted.

[Pliny]

What's with the destabilization of countries in the mid-east? They lose their dictators and then are continually in turmoil or in Syria's case civil war.

[GostHacked]

Pliny, may not have been the case in every country during the Arab Spring uprisings, but cases like Libya and Syria show the amount of foreign influence for subversion within both those countries.

[dre]

I think the problem here is that the message some of these people have taken from Mubaraks removal is that the way to call elections is through massive protest. Its hard to say if this is right or wrong because I dont know much about what Morsy has done.

But Im thinking theres gotta be a happy medium between this, and apathetic Canadians who probably wouldnt even take to the streets if the Government gave themselves the right to have sex with our brides on the night of our wedding.

[scribblet]

Canadians have no reason to take to the streets. No gov't is perfect and no matter which party was in power there wouldn't be a whole lot of difference IMO. Well, I think the middle income earners would be hardest hit if and NDP gov't.

[Boges]

This is effecting oil pricing. So that effects us.

Here's what I don't get. The military will tell Morsi to take a hike. Will they have another election? And if the MB wins again, then what happens?

It appears the regions outside of Cairo are perfectly happy being led by the MB. Not that I support the MB or anything but it appears that a very loud minority are trying to dictate who leads the country.

It would be akin to the anarchist groups undertaking mass protests to overthrow Harper and the Military telling Harper he has to go.

Pretty crazy stuff.

[Michael Hardner]

After years of having a strongman run things, it's going to be tricky to get the factions to trust each other enough to work together. I suppose that the military has to referee that process, but as Boges pointed out - what happens if the MB keep getting elected ? Or if the army doesn't have another election ?

[GostHacked]

This is effecting oil pricing. So that effects us.

Can we forget about the oil and focus on the people wanting something that looks like a democracy?

It would be akin to the anarchist groups undertaking mass protests to overthrow Harper and the Military telling Harper he has to go.

Maybe if we stop supporting the anarchists in some of those countries (Syria, Libya, Egypt) we might make some progress.

[GostHacked]

After years of having a strongman run things, it's going to be tricky to get the factions to trust each other enough to work together. I suppose that the military has to referee that process, but as Boges pointed out - what happens if the MB keep getting elected ? Or if the army doesn't have another election ?

Elections? Whatever it is might look like an election, but I have my suspicions about the validity of said election.

[Michael Hardner]

Well, they elected the MB the first time. Good question, though, as I don't recall what kind of monitoring Egypt had in place. Let's fire up Google here and see what we get....

Links:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/16/us-egypt-election-monitors-idUSBRE84F0J420120516

The Carter Center issued eight statements during the parliamentary election cycle from late November to January, which offered the first opportunity for foreign monitors to observe an Egyptian election.

Monitors reported scattered irregularities in that election, but nothing that changed the overall outcome - a sweeping win for Islamists who were repressed under Mubarak.

And if Jimmy Carter isn't honest enough:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/01/05/pol-egypt-canadians-election.html

A group of Canadians that was part of an election monitoring delegation in Egypt this week says the enthusiasm of voters was outstanding and that generally the election was held fairly and freely.

Audrey McLaughlin, former MP and federal NDP leader, said she was welcomed everywhere she went.

"We had a good overview of the process," she said in an interview via Skype from Cairo on Thursday. She said the general feeling was that the third and final round of elections in the country proceeded with no violence, it was orderly and that the procedures were "reasonably well-followed."

[GostHacked]

Given that we have our own problems in Canada related to elections (robocall scandal for one) I don't see how we can validate the elections of something like Egypt.

[Boges]

Can we forget about the oil and focus on the people wanting something that looks like a democracy?

They got an election.

Where's your evidence, that election was invalid?

[GostHacked]

They got an election.

Where's your evidence, that election was invalid?

What evidence that the turmoil in Egypt is affecting oil prices? Any evidence of that?

[Michael Hardner]

Given that we have our own problems in Canada related to elections (robocall scandal for one) I don't see how we can validate the elections of something like Egypt.

Ok, well you have Jimmy Carter's organization and another one that monitored the election as well. What would satisfy you ? I think the bar has been passed in terms of fairness, and I think most would be satisfied.

[Boges]

What evidence that the turmoil in Egypt is affecting oil prices? Any evidence of that?

What else would you attribute Oil Prices reaching a 9 month high?

Egypt controls the Suez Canal which is an easy route for much of the Middle East's Oil to get to Europe. Turmoil in the region makes the price go up. We saw the exact same thing with Libya.

[GostHacked]

What else would you attribute Oil Prices reaching a 9 month high?

Oil prices go up, oil prices don't go down. You can't explain that.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2013/07/03/business-oil-prices-egypt.html

The price of oil soared to above $102 US a barrel Wednesday for the first time in over a year as Egypt's political crisis intensified, raising the risk of fuel supply disruptions in the Suez Canal.

Oh come on, 102 dollars? That's high? Not to mention the price of oil has been as low as 50 dollars per barrel in the past few years but that was NEVER reflected in what I pay at the pump for fuel. So expect this crisis to cause prices to go up, to get you used to it, and they will come down just a little to make people feel better, when it still costs more than before. Nice psychological effect as well.

Egypt controls the Suez Canal which is an easy route for much of the Middle East's Oil to get to Europe. Turmoil in the region makes the price go up. We saw the exact same thing with Libya.

The only people crying about the oil and Libya at that time was Italy. So NATO needed to pound a country into the ground because of it. And while NATO ramped up, Italy wimped out and took a back seat to let the rest of us deal with Italy's problem. Not sure I like our military being used and abused like that.

[GostHacked]

I will also point out that the CBC article is also indicating a lower than normal output from the USA.

[Boges]

So you dispute the conclusion of the article you quote?

Any reason Speculators have to raise the price of oil, they'll do it. Even if Libya only supplies oil to Europe it'll still effect the price here.

Tomorrow's Gas Price Today says Toronto Gas will go up about 1.3 cents a litre tomorrow. You don't see a hike like that unless there's a reason.

I remember the price of gas in Ontario once went up over 10 cents overnight because of distribution fears due to a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Ontario doesn't get any of the oil but the prices still went up here.

$102/barrel isn't even approaching a record but it's higher than the price has been. I've actually seen some stability in the price of gas over the past year or 2.

[GostHacked]

So you dispute the conclusion of the article you quote?

Any reason Speculators have to raise the price of oil, they'll do it. Even if Libya only supplies oil to Europe it'll still effect the price here.

So speculators are the cause of the increase in price regardless of real world events. They speculate they can make money, so they will.

But if the small output that Libya has and mostly goes to Europe, why would it affect prices here? Does that make any sense to you?

Also not a single new refining facility has been built in North America in the past 20+ while we have seen about 3 different refineries in the USA blow up, while the demand for oil has increased. Texas City was a major blast, and I would be curious as to the impact of that compared to the impact Libya or Egypt has.

Iran has the Straight of Hormuz, what do the speculators say about that?

I remember the price of gas in Ontario once went up over 10 cents overnight because of distribution fears due to a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Ontario doesn't get any of the oil but the prices still went up here.

So if a storm has that kind of impact, then we need to revisit how we go about this. Meaning mostly everything is planned around on time deliveries, any kink in the supply chain will have huge impacts simply because there is no holding a certain stock level. I see this quite often in the business I am of moving groceries on a country wide scale and it applies to many other types of businesses around the world.

Weather will always have an impact, prepare for it, or screw yourself by not preparing. It's as simple as that.

Edited July 3, 2013 by GostHacked

[Boges]

Why are you asking me to defend the people who set the price of oil. I'll admit it's a scam but you can't deny Egypt plays into this current spike.

I don't know if you're ever heard of this site.

http://www.tomorrowsgaspricetoday.com/

It's run by a former Liberal MP Dan McTeague who made the insanity of Gas Prices his business. By no later than 5pm every weekday, he'll be able to tell you exactly what the price of gas will be the next day. He's never wrong.

Today he even partially attributes the spike to Egypt

Gas prices to INCREASE overnight across much of Canada. Chalk up the increases to five fold drawdowns in US oil and gasoline stockpiles from estimates (as of 10:30 am this morning) and uncertainty over the deepening political crisis in Egypt. See your city here as well as all our other unique and innovative features that shield you from sneaky price changes.

Edited July 3, 2013 by Boges

[GostHacked]

Why are you asking me to defend the people who set the price of oil. I'll admit it's a scam but you can't deny Egypt plays into this current spike.

If we can admit it is a scam, then you should also question the timing and reason of this increase in oil prices.

I don't know if you're ever heard of this site.\

http://www.tomorrowsgaspricetoday.com/[/quote

It's run by a former Liberal MP Dan McTeague who made the insanity of Gas Prices his business. By no later than 5pm every weekday, he'll be able to tell you exactly what the price of gas will be the next day. He's never wrong.

Today he even partially attributes the spike to Egypt

Partially, the real impact as indicated in your article is the 'five fold' drawdown in US stockpiles. That will have the impact regardless of Egypt. Using Egypt is nothing more than a scare tactic in my view.

[Boges]

Using Egypt is nothing more than a scare tactic in my view.

They don't have to have a good reason, they just need a reason. Of course it's a scare tactic. But it's not like anybody can get it to change. Regulating Oil Prices doesn't work either.

Or at least that's what I'm told.