2012 US Presidential race polls

[Sleipnir]

The last several national polls show Romney leading by 3 to 5 points.

National polls are useless

[bush_cheney2004]

Very good point. With a week left of campaigning as well.

Frankly, I don't understand all the time spent on such prognostications. The Americans will vote in a little over one week, so what's the hurry? We know for certain that the winner will be.....American.

[Shady]

National polls are useless

Right. So when was the last time somebody lost while winning the popular vote by 3 or more points?

[cybercoma]

National polls are useless

The guy who's mindful enough to criticize the methodologies of polls (even though he has as of yet been able to explain the differences) can't for the life of him seem to get his mind around the fact that getting 100% of the votes in Mississippi still only nets you 3 electoral college votes.

[msj]

Shady and others have to pretend they don't understand the methodology of 538 and 270 etc because then they can set their hair on fire over Obama winning.

And here are the reasons why: If Obama wins, Frank Rich says the GOP's fury will intensify, and the party will only get more extreme

[Shady]

The guy who's mindful enough to criticize the methodologies of polls (even though he has as of yet been able to explain the differences) can't for the life of him seem to get his mind around the fact that getting 100% of the votes in Mississippi still only nets you 3 electoral college votes.

Once again, when was the last time somebody lost while winning the popular vote by 3 or more points?

[Shady]

Shady and others have to pretend they don't understand the methodology of 538 and 270 etc because then they can set their hair on fire over Obama winning.

And here are the reasons why: If Obama wins, Frank Rich says the GOP's fury will intensify, and the party will only get more extreme

Frank Rich is a far left winger. Should I start posting Ann Coulter to counter?

[bush_cheney2004]

No, it's just predicted every presidential winner for the last 30 years. Your blog sounds great though.

The Colorado prediction model is interesting in that it emphasizes actual economic metrics and other indices in play for each election since 1980. We know there is going to be an economic backlash against the incumbent, but the magnitude is not known. Such modeling is readily accepted by some here for so called climate change.

[cybercoma]

Right. So when was the last time somebody lost while winning the popular vote by 3 or more points?

You do know that Obama is leading the national polls by about 2% on average, right?

[Shady]

You do know that Obama is leading the national polls by about 2% on average, right?

Actually he isn't. The real clear politics average is Romney +1.9. Has been around that for about 2 weeks now. Even the latest ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by 3.

[cybercoma]

Actually he isn't. The real clear politics average is Romney +1.9. Has been around that for about 2 weeks now. Even the latest ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by 3.

That's lovely, Shady. Two polls. Awesome. Let me cherry pick some from Friday too.

IBD / TIPP Obama +2.3

Ipsos / Reuters Obama +1.0

RAND Obama +5.9

UPI / CVoter Obama +1.0

This is why FiveThirtyEight takes into account all of the national polls, not just the one's Shady on MLW picks, considers their historical accuracies, and tries to reconcile them with the state polls in order to come up with a more likely popular vote scenario. That more likely scenario has Obama at roughly +2.

Not that you're going to, since you're obviously more interested in spreading lies and shaking your pom-poms for Romney, but you can read about it at the link below. Silver also discusses his methodology in the article. You can skip down to "Friday's National Polls" in the article if you don't want to read the whole thing.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/

Edited October 29, 2012 by cybercoma

[Sleipnir]

The real clear politics average is Romney +1.9.

The fivethirtyeight forecast average is Obama with 50.4% of the popular vote with Romney at 48.7%.

Again, national polls are useless - what matters most are state by state polling.

[CPCFTW]

Like, seriously Shady.... what a terrible study to post. It makes predictions about factors that will affect the various states, while the numbers we've been talking about are based on actual polling data in the states, as recent as yesterday.

Oh wow.. actual polling data?!

Let's review some more actual polling data:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2011

Whoops.

[cybercoma]

Oh wow.. actual polling data?!

Let's review some more actual polling data:

http://en.wikipedia...._election,_2011

Whoops.

Completely irrelevant. Aside from your link being based on a completely different electoral system, I've already mentioned several times how FiveThirtyEight's methodology differs. He correctly predicted every single Senate race in 2008 and was within a few votes on the electoral college in 2008. He doesn't rely on individual polls, but an aggregate of polls, which are weighted based on their historical accuracies. It's the most accurate election predictor out there.

[Shady]

This is why FiveThirtyEight takes into account all of the national polls

And that's their basic flaw. Not all national polls are created equal. That's why Real Clear Politics is so accurate, and has been for past elections.

[Shady]

WOW!! The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by 15 among independents. How does Obama overcome that kind of margin?

[punked]

WOW!! The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by 15 among independents. How does Obama overcome that kind of margin?

He is winning that poll Shady.

[Shady]

He is winning that poll Shady.

Yeah, how exactly? How does one lose independents by 15 points and still win a poll, let alone an election?

[PIK]

You do know that Obama is leading the national polls by about 2% on average, right?

And the polls had mulroney at 20% before he won his largest majority.

[BubberMiley]

Actually he isn't. The real clear politics average is Romney +1.9.

This is a flat-out lie. Real Clear Politics has never had Romney averaging +1.9 (or even close to that) at any point in the campaign.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

But I guess that's just another liberal conspiracy.

[Sleipnir]

WOW!! The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by 15 among independents. How does Obama overcome that kind of margin?

He'll only keep it up for 8 more days - so hang on everyone, it's almost over when Obama wins

[punked]

Yeah, how exactly? How does one lose independents by 15 points and still win a poll, let alone an election?

It does when Bush killed the Republican Party. You might not know this Shady but there are 10% more Democrats in America then Republicans. Sorry to be the guy who gives you the news.

I notice you don't have a problem reading a polls internals what is your opinion on Gallup saying 80% of the electorate will be white when that has happened in 30 years? You got a problem with that poll or because it says what you want you are going to ignore how wrong it clearly it is. Face it Romney needs a game changer because right now he is losing by a little bit.

Edited October 29, 2012 by punked

[punked]

Politico also report Obama 49, Romney 48 so I guess Shady thinks the fix is in.

[cybercoma]

And that's their basic flaw. Not all national polls are created equal. That's why Real Clear Politics is so accurate, and has been for past elections.

Gee, Shady, maybe that's why I address that exact point in the part that you cut off.

What's your problem, man?

[cybercoma]

WOW!! The new ABC/Washington Post poll shows Romney up by 15 among independents. How does Obama overcome that kind of margin?

For someone that JUST mentioned before this post the historical accuracy of polls, you think you would have the intellectual honesty to point out that ABC/Post was near the bottom of the pack in 2008. But no. You only criticize methodology and polling accuracy when your guy is losing.