2012 US Presidential race polls

[Moonlight Graham]

Please post the latest polls here. Thank you!

Edited October 25, 2012 by Moonlight Graham

[Sleipnir]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

^^^boatload of statistics

[cybercoma]

http://www.270towin.com

[Shady]

Please post the latest polls here.

Rasmussen: Romney 50 Obama 47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Gallup: Romney 50 Obama 47

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

SurveyUSA: Romney 48 Obama 45

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/84/159/2147483694/0e2e970e-a544-4f4d-8659-6233705b8ae7.pdf

Washington Post/ABC: Romney 50 Obama 47.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121024.html

Associated Press: Romney 47 Obama 45.

http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/AP-GfK-Poll-October-2012-Topline_POLITICS.pdf

[BC_chick]

http://www.270towin.com

That map seems a little bit unrealistic.

And off-topic, but... I went back to some of the previous maps and what a shift since the Carter election. The Bible belt was blue and the west coast was red.

[Guest Derek L]

That map seems a little bit unrealistic.

And off-topic, but... I went back to some of the previous maps and what a shift since the Carter election. The Bible belt was blue and the west coast was red.

Not to date myself, but back then (Reagan in ‘80) the Republicans were coloured blue and the Democrats red on the electoral map….

[punked]

That map seems a little bit unrealistic.

And off-topic, but... I went back to some of the previous maps and what a shift since the Carter election. The Bible belt was blue and the west coast was red.

That map is the most realistic map. What do you have problems with? Florida going red? Me too.

[cybercoma]

That map seems a little bit unrealistic.

It's based on the most up-to-date state polling.

[lisasimpson]

looks like a win for Romney

[punked]

Only if you can't read state polls. Betting odds are still highly favorable for Obama so if you are a sucker or know something the people putting money don't you can either lose or make some money.

[Shady]

Romney pulls even in Wisconsin.

http://m.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/wisconsin/election_2012_wisconsin_president

[cybercoma]

Huffington Post is obviously a progressive paper, but if you click on each individual state, it has graphs with plotted points for dozens of polling firms. This gives a much clearer picture of what's going on.

Link: http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map#map

Edited October 26, 2012 by cybercoma

[Shady]

Latest Gallup: Romney 51 Obama 46.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/election-2012-likely-voters-trial-heat-obama-romney.aspx

[WIP]

Please post the latest polls here. Thank you!

Considering all the work Republicans are doing at the state and local levels to disenfranchise blacks, latinos, students, and other demographics who vote Democrat, what is the real margin of support Obama and many senators will need to actually win in the polling booth against a Republican? Especially if they are voting with a machine made by the company that was recently bought out by Mitt's son - Taggert!

[GostHacked]

Latest Gallup: Romney 51 Obama 46.

http://www.gallup.co...ama-romney.aspx

Do polls matter or not Shady? Why the hypocrisy?

[Shady]

Do polls matter or not Shady? Why the hypocrisy?

As I've already stated, they do, if they're conducted properly and grounded in reality.

[BubberMiley]

As I've already stated, they do, if they're conducted properly and grounded in reality.

You should explain in detail how the methodology has changed since the polls were untrustworthy three weeks ago.

[punked]

As I've already stated, they do, if they're conducted properly and grounded in reality.

Yah like I brushing off an Ohio survey be a useful it had a plus 9 dem sample even though the Early vote shows a plus 12 to 15 number for the Dems? You are lucky you do t want understand polling because if you did you would be peeing your pants right now.

[Shady]

Yah like I brushing off an Ohio survey be a useful it had a plus 9 dem sample even though the Early vote shows a plus 12 to 15 number for the Dems? You are lucky you do t want understand polling because if you did you would be peeing your pants right now.

You're gonna be in shock on November 6th. I feel sorry for you.

[Shady]

It's gonna be like the 2010 midterms all over again for you. Youd think you'd learn. Guess not.

[cybercoma]

You should explain in detail how the methodology has changed since the polls were untrustworthy three weeks ago.

I already asked him to explain the differences in methodologies and what has changed. He tucked tail and pissed off away from that topic.

In any case, here's a poll of polls that takes into account their historical accuracy to determine the probability of outcomes in the election.

http://www.nerdwallet.com/markets/election

As of today, Obama has a 69.5% chance of people elected, which is close to what 270towin.com says (77%, doesn't account for poll accuracy), Intrade (63.5%, based on share trades), and FiveThirtyEight (69.6%).

In other words, you're looking at roughly 2:1 odds that Obama gets elected.

[cybercoma]

You should explain in detail how the methodology has changed since the polls were untrustworthy three weeks ago.

Notice how he skipped right over your post and replied to punked.

[betsy]

Saw Romney's speech today (fully covered by CNN since it's been said to be a major speech).....it was a darn good one!

I must say it could be the speech to catapult him to the finish line.

LOVELAND MAGAZINE HD VIDEO

Clips from Romney rally in Cincinnati on Thursday

Cincinnati, Ohio - Former Governor and Republican Presidential candidate, Mitt Romney today chided President Obama for fussing about Big Bird while introducing his new campaign theme, “Big change.” He said the Obama campaign is talking about, “smaller and smaller things” while America has such huge challenges.

http://www.lovelandmagazine.com/2012/10/a-big-change-path.html?cid=6a00d8341c5f6d53ef017ee476c7fc970d

[guyser]

I must say it could be the speech to catapult him to the finish line.

Without this speech he might have pulled out?

[Sleipnir]

Rasmussen: Romney 50 Obama 47

http://www.rasmussen...l_tracking_poll

Gallup: Romney 50 Obama 47

http://www.gallup.co...ama-romney.aspx

SurveyUSA: Romney 48 Obama 45

http://www.monmouth....233705b8ae7.pdf

Washington Post/ABC: Romney 50 Obama 47.

http://www.washingto...l_20121024.html

Associated Press: Romney 47 Obama 45.

http://ap-gfkpoll.co...ne_POLITICS.pdf

I am not sure how useful are national polls because the U.S runs on the College Electoral System. That saying, it may be more useful to look at polls from individual states.