Quebec Election 2012 -Unpredictable

August1991 · August 15, 2012

I just spent some time in Quebec City visiting friends and points in between.

I reckon now that it will be a PQ majority/minority. The CAQ is going to split the federalist vote outside Montreal and the PLQ is going to split the federalist vote in Montreal. The PQ may get a majority with as little as 33% of the popular vote.

Whether majority or minority, Marois will then pursue a policy of confrontation with Harper. If it's a minority, she'll do it with the purpose of winning a majority in another election. If it's a majority, she'll do it in a year or so on a sectoral issue with the purpose to provoke a crisis.

If the PQ wins, the PLQ will be as moribund as the federal Liberals.

My top match was the guy I know nothing about (Green leader) probably because I don't know anything positive about any of the others.

The Green leader is a francophone running in a trendy, lefty Anglo riding that has supposedly provided the most contributions to the Party. Is it any wonder that he has made it clear in his accented English that he is a federalist?

TheNewTeddy · August 15, 2012

The Greens have done shockingly well in the past in those parts of anglo Montreal that are cut off from the main western area (IE, Westmount, Hampstead, Notre Dame, Montreal Ouest, etc.)

bleeding heart · August 15, 2012

Arts

I disagree with all 6 parties; I feel artists should get less funding - though - I would support funding quality artists.

As determined by......?

TheNewTeddy · August 16, 2012

Success

TheNewTeddy · August 16, 2012

Also, here is my projection, if anyone is interested

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-da60Asyvum4/UCxv0ieMtgI/AAAAAAAAARw/1y6vohaJcgU/s1600/mapquebec.gif

bleeding heart · August 16, 2012

Success

As a synonym for quality?

If only that were credible.

TheNewTeddy · August 16, 2012

I've seen tags at the end of TV shows, grants from the feds or various provinces, and these I support. It's the idea that some random idiot on the street who thinks lying in the nude covered with rotting meat products in the hot sun is somehow getting tax dollars that makes me ill.

bleeding heart · August 16, 2012

I've seen tags at the end of TV shows, grants from the feds or various provinces, and these I support. It's the idea that some random idiot on the street who thinks lying in the nude covered with rotting meat products in the hot sun is somehow getting tax dollars that makes me ill.

Oh sure, I sympathize.

But to deem "success" as a hallmark of "quality" seems pretty spurious. I doubt I need to make the ten thousand comparisons, in movies, books, television, poetry and visual arts, that immediately spring to mind.

Let's just say that anyone--including ten-year olds--who think Transformers a better film than Taxi Driver not only doesn't understand art--he doesn't even like movies, and so his opinion is worthless on the entire subject. (I use this particular example because Taxi Driver is even a superior action movie to Transformers....in case "genre" arguments surface.)

Similar comparisons extrapolate to the other arts.

Edited August 16, 2012 by bleeding heart

PIK · August 16, 2012

What I see is a PQ collapse, Libs majority, go with the devil you know on this one.

August1991 · August 17, 2012

What I see is a PQ collapse, Libs majority, go with the devil you know on this one.

The PQ is not going to collapse. The BQ got about 24% in the 2011 federal election and I would be surprised if Marois gets less than 30%. Her problem is that she apparently can't go much above 35%.

The question in this election is how the CAQ/PLQ split the remaining vote. If the votes split the right way, it is very possible for the PQ to form a majority government. Since these are riding level splits, the election outcome is impossible to predict now.

OTOH, if the PLQ vote collapses in off-island, francophone Quebec (a possibility), then the CAQ may get a minority government - with a rump PLQ turned into a 21st century Equality Party/Trudeau Jnr in Papineau. No doubt Yolande James will be its next leader.

All eyes will be on Legault during the debates next week.

Edited August 17, 2012 by August1991

TheNewTeddy · August 17, 2012

The PQ vote has been stable for quite a while, but every poll, another point bleeds from the PLQ to the CAQ

At this rate, we are looking at a CAQ majority.

August1991 · August 17, 2012

The PQ vote has been stable for quite a while, but every poll, another point bleeds from the PLQ to the CAQ.

Marois will play to the QS and the Option Nationale disaffected vote. They take about 5% - but these voters are like the undecided; they prefer to stay away from mainstream politics and I doubt that Marois will get them. It is sad that the PQ vote under Marois cannot rise above 35% or so but that appears to be the case. At 40%, the PQ would dominate the electoral scene.

At this rate, we are looking at a CAQ majority.

I think the debates and polls will be a major factor.

If it appears that the CAQ/Legault is ahead of the PLQ/Charest, then it is possible there will be a tipping point. But traditional Liberal voters feel uncomfortable voting CAQ and Quebec has two regions: Montreal and off-island.

Jean Lapierre had a good point today. The most recent poll shows 19% undecided. No one is undecided about Marois or Charest. They are undecided about the CAQ and Legault.

Edited August 17, 2012 by August1991

westguy · August 19, 2012

I know I will be donating to the PQ. They understand the plight of the striking students. They have my support. Charest wants high tuitions creating unequal classes.

I find it hard to take you seriously. The "poor" students pay less than 50% students pay for tuition in other provinces. They have $$$ to take winter trips to Mexico and lead a good life at the expense of other equalization transferor province such as Alberta. What are you smoking?

TheNewTeddy · August 20, 2012

Legault lost the entire election in the debate, now I don't see anyone stopping a PQ Majority.

Newfoundlander · August 20, 2012

Legault lost the entire election in the debate, now I don't see anyone stopping a PQ Majority.

Why?

TheNewTeddy · August 20, 2012

You need to read my blog posts

Anyway, it seems that my view that Legault bombed is not shared by the majority, so he may not have lost it all just yet.

Newfoundlander · August 20, 2012

I heard he did excellent, he also seems to be the best candidate.

Newfoundlander · August 21, 2012

Forum Research tweeted that the Liberals are back in the lead, and that François David won the first debate.

westguy · August 21, 2012

I find it hard to take you seriously. The "poor" students pay less than 50% students pay for tuition in other provinces. They have $$$ to take winter trips to Mexico and lead a good life at the expense of other equalization transferor province such as Alberta. What are you smoking?

Furthermore, the Quebec government has accumulated $250b indebt DESPITE receiving $257bin transfer payments. They use money from other provinces to fund their outrageous and generous social programs. I wish Quebec would go. It would soon be a third world country without the transfer payments from other provinces ( read Alberta). I am flabbergasted why you think the "entitled" Quebec students should be supported.

PIK · August 21, 2012

A PQ win will be great for harper.

TheNewTeddy · August 22, 2012

Oh, I've mentioned my Blog where I make election projections. I'll mention it once, here, and link to it

http://riding-by-riding.blogspot.ca/

so that anyone interested can follow. There are also others doing projections that are not me like 308

http://www.threehundredeight.com/

so you have other options.

Newfoundlander · August 22, 2012

And Charest is back on top.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08/22/quebec-liberals-take-lead-over-pq-after-weekend-leaders-debate-poll/

PIK · August 22, 2012

I respect her for being truthful with her beliefs and sticking to them. To bad others would not be more like her.

August1991 · August 23, 2012

There is still two weeks to go but after last night's debate between Legault and Marois, I think the PQ has just lost it. The next poll will show if there is any change on the ground. If the PQ vote drops to 25%, then it means that Marois's career is over. She bungled her responses in several ways but perhaps the worst was her inability to state clearly what she meant. Jean-François Lisée, in a post debate analysis, stated succinctly in a few seconds what Marois failed to explain during the debate. The first task of a politician is to communicate.

An interesting question still is what the west Montreal voters will do: stay with the PLQ or jump to the CAQ.

I`d predict now a CAQ majority/minority. People don't want the status quo, they don't want to hear the word "referendum" anymore, they don't want corruption.

Legault will be another Daniel Johnson/Paul Sauvé. If I'm right, the big winner will be Stephen Harper. But as they say, the game isn`t over until the fat lady sings and 10 days can be an eternity in politics.

Fletch 27 · August 23, 2012

A Charet "Win" will only continue to "legitimize" the comments behind "Liberal scandal", "Liberal lack of transparency" and money laundering. Mobster ties can now also be brought into the Liberal Branding. This woud be a HUGE win for Steve Harper.. "Once a Liberal always a Liberal"....

Actually, regardless of the outcome, Its a win for Steve Harper.. With Mulcair 100%(!!!) silent on the seperation debate and Student Riots.... Harper has simply added to his war-chest of Mulcair "Attack adds",,,,, And rightfully so!

In the words of Mr.Smithers...."Eeeexcellent".....

There is still two weeks to go but after last night's debate between Legault and Marois, I think the PQ has just lost it. The next poll will show if there is any change on the ground. If the PQ vote drops to 25%, then it means that Marois's career is over. She bungled her responses in several ways but perhaps the worst was her inability to state clearly what she meant. Jean-François Lisée, in a post debate analysis, stated succinctly in a few seconds what Marois failed to explain during the debate. The first task of a politician is to communicate.

An interesting question still is what the west Montreal voters will do: stay with the PLQ or jump to the CAQ.

I`d predict now a CAQ majority/minority. People don't want the status quo, they don't want to hear the word "referendum" anymore, they don't want corruption.

Legault will be another Daniel Johnson/Paul Sauvé. If I'm right, the big winner will be Stephen Harper. But as they say, the game isn`t over until the fat lady sings and 10 days can be an eternity in politics.