Need help with Alternate History

[TheNewTeddy]

I'm trying to craft a political based alternate history story.

So, 1995, Quebec decided to leave Canada, narrow victory for the Yes side.

The two sides sit down and gab and eventually decide that on Jan 1 1997 that Quebec will become it's own country.

Canada ends up breaking up as a result, but that's where I need some help and feedback...

Does it happen quickly? Slowly? Who goes with who? etc?

Here are my thoughts

CAUSE

Scenario I

The breakup was caused by Charest winning the PC leadership in 1993, and the 1993 election resulted in a minority. This instability resulted in a 55-45 victory for the yes side.

Scenario II

Chance. The changes were so small or minor that it's hard to pinpoint. The end result was 50.5-49.5 in favour of separation. The breakup process was very very messy.

Scenario III

Mulroney calls a snap election in 1992 at the failure of Charlottetown and this leads to the problems.

Note that this presumes the results of the 1992 election are like

155 Liberal

90 NDP

25 Reform

15 PC

10 Bloc

This is in line with polls at the time, which I can produce if anyone is curious.

EFFECT

Presumption

There would be an election in 1996 regardless of the cause. In this election the governing Liberals would be destroyed, and, Quebec would not elect MPs to new house (or at least, not ones that'd sit after Jan 1 1997)

Scenario A

Based on Scenario I or II, Reform would have won a majority, or, at least, a clear minority.

Scenario B

Based on Scenario III, a few sub scenarios...

Ba - PC Majority - The party springs back from nothing to win a majority due to the collapse of the Bob Rae NDP, Jean Chretien Country Destroying Liberals, and the never-caught-on Reform Party.

Bb - PC Minority - Similar to above but the bounce back is limited by the scale of the 1992 defeat

Bc - NDP Majority - Despite Bob Rae, the size of the NDP opposition allows for the federal party to separate itself from the provincial reputation. The Libs doing poorly and the 1992 PC defeat allowed the NDP to win.

Bd - NDP Minority - Similar to above but not as much NDP strength.

Be - Lib Minority - With the 1992 destruction of the PC Party, the lack of a chance for Reform to really catch fire, and Bob Rae, the hated Liberals manage to somehow win a minority.

BREAKUP

Scenario 1

Works with any scenario. After Quebec decides to leave, the other provinces are eager to go, and by Jan 1 1997, they break up.

Scenario 2

Works with any scenario. After the breakup, the Federal government continues for a short time, but by 2000 all the provinces end up leaving.

Scenario 3

Works best with a majority in 1996, or, a Reform government. The breakup is very slow. A province or region might go, but in short, it takes up to modern times (when the recent recession) to break up.

FRACTURES

Where would the provinces go?

ATLANTIC

Form:

A small chance that all 4 would go together, but I think it's far more likely that the Maritime provinces (and Newfoundland is not a Maritime province) would stick together while Newfoundland would go it on it's own.

Place:

Newfoundland, if it goes alone, goes alone. I can not see it joining any other country, period.

The Maritimes however has 4 options.

1 - Independence. This is politically likely but economically implausible. This area is rather poor. The Maritimes as a country, in 2010, would have had a total National and Provincial, combined, revenue of $9.9B but expenditures of $23.3B, and when your deficit is higher than your revenue, you have a huge problem.

2 - Joining Quebec. Not as crazy as it sounds, they'd be similar to what Scotland is to England. There are those out there who would support this.

3 - Joining the US. Likely trying to join as 3 states they might be forced to join as 1.

4 - Hanging off Ontario. That might be all that's left of "Canada"

WEST

Form:

All 4 could go together, or, they might fracture, but even then, I can't see the Prairies breaking up.

Place:

BC is the only province I could see going it on it's own, but I think, would not.

The Territories, I think, would go along.

[TheNewTeddy]

My big questions are how fast would the breakup happen and what would the maritimes do.

[Smallc]

The country would probably stay intact from the Ottawa River to Vancouver Island...I'm not sure what would happen to the Atlantic provinces.

[punked]

Here is what your Alternative history should say. Quebec leaves the Northern Cree leave Quebec and Join Canada under their own referendum. With that they take all of Hydro Quebec and all the Natural resources with them. Quebec goes bankrupt Canada stays in tact just fine.

[Smallc]

Add to that Montreal and Quebec City. Both are actually majority federalist (though Quebec City is much less so), as are the majority of the Eastern Townships.

Edited April 13, 2012 by Smallc

[Jack Weber]

Here is what your Alternative history should say. Quebec leaves the Northern Cree leave Quebec and Join Canada under their own referendum. With that they take all of Hydro Quebec and all the Natural resources with them. Quebec goes bankrupt Canada stays in tact just fine.

That is exactly what would happen...

[bush_cheney2004]

...3 - Joining the US. Likely trying to join as 3 states they might be forced to join as 1.

Nope....just fanciful thinking. This is not an option.

[August1991]

Here is what your Alternative history should say. Quebec leaves the Northern Cree leave Quebec and Join Canada under their own referendum. With that they take all of Hydro Quebec and all the Natural resources with them. Quebec goes bankrupt Canada stays in tact just fine.

I tend to agree with punked.

In 1980, Levesque sought a mandate to negotiate a second referendum. In 1995, Parizeau's plan was to do a UDI. God knows how the Cree (and the world/UN/US) would have responded.

----

Alternate history? Czechoslovakia is now the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Everyone seems happy, and prosperous.

Edited April 14, 2012 by August1991

[Jack Weber]

I tend to agree with punked.

In 1980, Levesque sought a mandate to negotiate a second referendum. In 1995, Parizeau's plan was to do a UDI. God knows how the Cree (and the world/UN/US) would have responded.

----

Alternate history? Czechoslovakia is now the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Everyone seems happy, and prosperous.

You can have Lower Canada...

And starve in the process..

[eyeball]

The country would probably stay intact from the Ottawa River to Vancouver Island...

I think the Vancouver Island Liberation Organization might have something to say about that.

[Wild Bill]

Nope....just fanciful thinking. This is not an option.

BC, I believe I asked this several years ago but I don't think anyone ever came up with an answer. There's a Canadian author named Richard Rohmer who has written a number of Tom Clancy-esque novels of Canada and politics. In one of them Canada was taken over by the USA. Most Canadians accepted the action.

Anyhow, one of his plot points was that somewhere in the American Founding Documents was a clause that allowed for Canada to join the union - a perpetual open door. Apparently in 1776 the Founding Fathers all believed that people in the Canadas would sooner or later want to break with Britain and become part of a North American alliance.

Rohmer painted it very well and I've always wondered if such a clause actually exists or if Rohmer pulled it out of his butt to help his story.

Do you know anything about this?

[bush_cheney2004]

....Rohmer painted it very well and I've always wondered if such a clause actually exists or if Rohmer pulled it out of his butt to help his story.

Do you know anything about this?

The US Articles of Confederation (1777 - 1781) had an exception for Canada/Quebec. This exception was not included in the subsequent US Constitution.

“Article XI. Canada acceding to this confederation, and adjoining in the measures of the United States, shall be admitted into, and entitled to all the advantages of this union; but no other colony shall be admitted into the same, unless such admission be agreed to by nine States.”

Edited April 14, 2012 by bush_cheney2004

[The_Squid]

I think the Vancouver Island Liberation Organization might have something to say about that.

Where do I sign up??

[TheNewTeddy]

You've convinced me to change my mind about the country breaking up right after Quebec goes.

Any thoughts on the most plausible cause for Quebec to go? Random chance? Minority Government? Charlottetown/Meech Snap Election?

[Smallc]

Any thoughts on the most plausible cause for Quebec to go? Random chance? Minority Government? Charlottetown/Meech Snap Election?

Uninformed dissatisfaction.