Smallc Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Yes, but the ones that show a dead heat also had Romney behind by several points not that long ago. And according to the Huffington Post, overall, the trend is heading back towards Obama, and has been since last Tuesday. Quote
Smallc Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 (edited) In the end, didn't Obama get ~52% to McCain's ~44%? We'll see on Election day, won't we? If we've learned anything from recent Canadian elections, polls are becoming harder and harder to get right. I'll be very surprised if Romney wins. Edited October 22, 2012 by Smallc Quote
Shady Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 And according to the Huffington Post, overall, the trend is heading back towards Obama, and has been since last Tuesday. LOL, yeah, they say a lot at Huffington Post, the leftwing blog. The polls say something else. Latest Gallup, latest Rasmussen, latest Wall street/NBC. Quote
Smallc Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 LOL, yeah, they say a lot at Huffington Post, the leftwing blog. It isn't just a left wing blog, and you know that. The polls say something else. Latest Gallup, latest Rasmussen, latest Wall street/NBC. Again, overall, the momentum is returning to Obama. There were several analysis done yesterday that show that. If Obama does well tomorrow, he'll be fine. Quote
Shady Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 It isn't just a left wing blog, and you know that. Again, overall, the momentum is returning to Obama. There were several analysis done yesterday that show that. If Obama does well tomorrow, he'll be fine. I don't want to ruin your fantasy, so fine, the momentum is returning to Obama. Quote
Guest Derek L Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 We'll see on Election day, won't we? If we've learned anything from recent Canadian elections, polls are becoming harder and harder to get right. I'll be very surprised if Romney wins. And I'll be surprised if Romney loses...........As I've said in both this election and ours, I pay barely any attention to polls until the last week.............And as I've said prior, and perhaps you're too young to remember, the "mood" is similar to that of 1980.………at this point then, like it is now, the political “know it alls” said the election was to close to call……….. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Yet, four years ago, using the same method: http://www.gallup.co...head-51-41.aspx In the end, didn't Obama get ~52% to McCain's ~44%? 4 years ago, Gallup was the most inaccurate pollster out of nearly 25 different firms. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Yep, Gallup has been fairly accurate. You really need to stop making completely uninformed posts because it makes you look really foolish. Gallup is one of the least accurate polls. http://blog.chron.com/txpotomac/2008/11/the-list-which-presidential-polls-were-most-accurate/ 1T. Rasmussen (11/1-3)** 1T. Pew (10/29-11/1)** 3. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1) 4. Harris Interactive (10/20-27) 5. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)* 6T. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)* 6T. ARG (10/25-27)* 8T. CNN (10/30-11/1) 8T. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1) 10. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3) 11. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27) 12. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2) 13. FOX (11/1-2) 14. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27) 15. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3) 16. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2) 17. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2) 18. Marist College (11/3) 19. CBS (10/31-11/2) 20. Gallup (10/31-11/2) 21. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3) 22. CBS/Times (10/25-29) 23. Newsweek (10/22-23) Quote
Guest Derek L Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 4 years ago, Gallup was the most inaccurate pollster out of nearly 25 different firms. Well seeing as my above link shows one of their polls from October of '08 and we know the results from the election..........Seem pretty spot on to me. Quote
Mr.Canada Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 It's going to be close and could go either way. The socialists may not want to admit that but it's true. This isn't 2008. Obama now has a record he has to run on. he isn't an unknown like he was 4 years ago. Quote "You are scum for insinuating that isn't the case you snake." -William Ashley Canadian Immigration Reform Blog
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Romney says, "I'm a big believer of getting money where the money is and the money is in Washington." This is the guy that's going to cut federal spending? Not in your wildest dreams. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yR_Mn4Skt4 Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Here's the line on the presidential election at a bunch of betting sites. Shady, put your money where your mouth is and make yourself rich because the odds don't favour Romney at all. http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 FiveThirtyEight's election forecasts take a bunch of different things into account, like the historical accuracy of different polls. They're still predicting an Obama victory. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com Quote
punked Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Well seeing as my above link shows one of their polls from October of '08 and we know the results from the election..........Seem pretty spot on to me. 538 points out that outside of Gallups last poll of the election most of their tracking polls have horrible results. Why is that? I have no clue but it is true. Quote
Guest Derek L Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 538 points out that outside of Gallups last poll of the election most of their tracking polls have horrible results. Why is that? I have no clue but it is true. So, based on precedent made four years from their October polling, like then, this one could also be right? Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 538 points out that outside of Gallups last poll of the election most of their tracking polls have horrible results. Why is that? I have no clue but it is true. Landline phone sampling. Quote
Shady Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Fine, we'll go with the most accurate which is Rasmussen. Romney 49 Obama 47. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Fine, we'll go with the most accurate which is Rasmussen. Romney 49 Obama 47. What's the +/-, Shady? Quote
Shady Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 What's the +/-, Shady? The same as when Obama used to be leading. Quote
GostHacked Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 The same as when Obama used to be leading. In other words - useless. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 The same as when Obama used to be leading. Yeah. Except Obama's lead exceeded the margin of error. Romney's doesn't right now. In other words, they're statistically tied right now, according to Rasmussen. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 This is my current prediction for electoral votes: Obama 286, Romney 252. I think I'm being fair to Romney here. http://www.270towin....s.php?mapid=NWo Quote
punked Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 This is my current prediction for electoral votes: Obama 286, Romney 252. I think I'm being fair to Romney here. http://www.270towin....s.php?mapid=NWo Considering the newest NH poll has Obama up 6 I think you are being more then fair. I think Romney pulled out of NC too soon and he might lose it as well, the early voting numbers are huge for Obama there. Quote
cybercoma Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 Considering the newest NH poll has Obama up 6 I think you are being more then fair. I think Romney pulled out of NC too soon and he might lose it as well, the early voting numbers are huge for Obama there. The latest poll I saw actually had Obama up by 9, but it was an outlier. Most polls have them statistically tied since the middle of October. Quote
punked Posted October 22, 2012 Report Posted October 22, 2012 The latest poll I saw actually had Obama up by 9, but it was an outlier. Most polls have them statistically tied since the middle of October. From today Obama up 8 in NH. http://www.unh.edu/survey-center/news/pdf/e2012_pres102212.pdf Quote
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