punked Posted March 14, 2012 Report Share Posted March 14, 2012 (edited) You're just dead wrong on that. New York and California, large states and both winner-take-all, are sure to go to Romney. If Newt gets out Santorum can start winning 50% of the especially in huge states like Texas and Pennsylvanian (which together have more delegates then Cali and NY) and that means those states go winner take all to Santorum. I know people keep talking about the winner take all states but there is also the above 50 rule in quite a few states which also change teh math. Edited March 14, 2012 by punked Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted March 14, 2012 Report Share Posted March 14, 2012 If Newt gets out Santorum can start winning 50% of the especially in huge states like Texas and Pennsylvanian (which together have more delegates then Cali and NY) and that means those states go winner take all to Santorum. I know people keep talking about the winner take all states but there is also the above 50 rule in quite a few states which also change teh math. Sorry punked, but your buddy Santorum needs to win 70% of the delegates, not 50%. It's over. Romney will be the nominee. Stop pretending otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitsy Posted March 14, 2012 Report Share Posted March 14, 2012 I disagree strongly with this decision. However, it was unanimous. Are you sure? I thought it was a split decision. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j44 Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Are you sure? I thought it was a split decision. Someone noted it was 5-4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 You're just dead wrong on that. New York and California, large states and both winner-take-all, are sure to go to Romney. my dead wrong is me simply echoing analysis I watched last night on both CNN and MSNBC... the pundits give Romney the winner take-all and then presume to carve up the proportional amongst Romney, Newt and Santorum. The numbers were crunched... Romney can't get to the number under the current dynamic that keeps both Newt and Santorum in and winning to the levels they are. Hence my question as to what the GOP establishment is willing to throw to Newt, to Santorum (before the convention)... and what happens after the first ballot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 my dead wrong is me simply echoing analysis I watched last night on both CNN and MSNBC Well, you should have watched CNN this evening. John King went through the complete delegate math, even giving Santorum a win in California, and Romney still gets to 1144 to clinch. Stop denying simple math and science waldo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j44 Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Well, you should have watched CNN this evening. John King went through the complete delegate math, even giving Santorum a win in California, and Romney still gets to 1144 to clinch. Stop denying simple math and science waldo. I think king did the same thing last night and Romney didn't get to 1144. He was very close though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think king did the same thing last night and Romney didn't get to 1144. He was very close though. I think you're right. But I think that was before Romney won Hawaii and therefore won more total delegates last night than Santorum. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j44 Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think you're right. But I think that was before Romney won Hawaii and therefore won more total delegates last night than Santorum. Oh right. I forgot about that. And American Samoa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bitsy Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nate Silver is a good numbers cruncher and he has Romney there by a hair. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Sorry punked, but your buddy Santorum needs to win 70% of the delegates, not 50%. It's over. Romney will be the nominee. Stop pretending otherwise. Nope he needs to win as many as it takes to force a brokered convention then it is anyone's game. If Santorum wins 50% of the vote in the big states he will take all the delegates. This is the real secret no one is talking about that if Santorum gets the ball rolling he will win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I think king did the same thing last night and Romney didn't get to 1144. He was very close though. Man there is so much disinformation going on right now. First something like 25% of delegates are unbound, they are Super Delegates. Anyone who thinks the backroom Super Delegates are going to hand Romney the Nomination if he doesn't finish strong is asking for a floor fight. The the Rules committee still has to decide on Florida and Arizona Romney needs 1200-1250 delegates to stop that from happening so Romney's number is a little bit higher. Then we have the fact if Santorum can win 50% of the vote in most states he will take home all the delegates which is easier for him to do then Romney because Romney has a ceiling in most states of 40%. This thing might be over and it might be a long shot but aint done yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j44 Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Man there is so much disinformation going on right now. First something like 25% of delegates are unbound, they are Super Delegates. Anyone who thinks the backroom Super Delegates are going to hand Romney the Nomination if he doesn't finish strong is asking for a floor fight. The the Rules committee still has to decide on Florida and Arizona Romney needs 1200-1250 delegates to stop that from happening so Romney's number is a little bit higher. Then we have the fact if Santorum can win 50% of the vote in most states he will take home all the delegates which is easier for him to do then Romney because Romney has a ceiling in most states of 40%. This thing might be over and it might be a long shot but aint done yet. I thought only the Dems had Super Delegates..? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Nate Silver is a good numbers cruncher and he has Romney there by a hair. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/09/how-daunting-is-santorums-delegate-math/ How The Race Stacks Up From Here (another calculation)By Dick Morris on March 14, 2012 Romney is on track to win the nomination when the primaries and caucuses are over on June 6th. Currently, Romney has 498 of the 1,144 he needs to be nominated. He now has 53% of the selected delegates, a clip he has been maintaining since the start of the process. Santorum has 25%, Gingrich 15%, and Paul 7%. CURRENT DELEGATE COUNT Romney 498 53% Santorum 239 25% Gingrich 139 15% Paul 69 7% Romney is very likely to win the following winner-take-all primaries: LIKELY ROMNEY WINNER TAKE ALL WINS Puerto Rico 23 DC 19 Maryland 37 Connecticut 28 Delaware 17 Rhode Island 19 Oregon 28 Cal 172 Montana 25 NJ 50 Utah 40 458 + 498 (current Romney) ______________________ 956 TOTAL In addition, Romney will probably win these winner take all states: Wisconsin 42 Indiana 46 West Virginia 31 Nebraska 35 South Dakota 28 182 + 956 ______________ 1,138 Finally, Romney will probably do very well in the following proportional representation states. Some, like New York and Illinois, award most of their delegates as a winner take all by Congressional District . P.R. State Delegates / Prob Romney New York 95 / 80 Illinois 69 / 45 Maine 24 / 20 New Mexico 23 / 15 160 + 1,138 ______________ 1,298 Needed to Nominate: 1,144 So, even if Romney loses the winner take all primaries in North Carolina and Pennsylvania and gets clobbered in Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and a few other conservative states, he should win the nomination by the time the primaries are over on June 6th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Those again are just estimates that may or may not be close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 realclearpolitics - Romney Really Might Not Have the Delegates by June So what’s the bottom line here? Romney ends up with 1,071 delegates, still short of the nomination. Now, there are a few important caveats. First, there are 114 unpledged RNC delegates, who can vote for anyone. Second, there are another 86 delegates in states that have already voted that have yet to be allocated. Romney will probably get somewhere between a third and half of these delegates. So a brokered convention is still a long shot, but (1) note how long it takes Romney to get into range; and (2) recall that we’ve perhaps been too generous with Romney in our delegate allocations in New York, Texas and California, especially after the brutal March he is likely about to have. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GostHacked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Actually, he's won twice as much as any of the others. So I'm not sure what you're talking about. Not like Obama losing 6 of the last 9 primaries in '08. Well Obama proves that you can be a loser and still win. Romney does not have a chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Obama's the biggest political hypocrite in our lifetime. Even Tavis Smiley agrees with me! "He's one of the worst hypocrites in the country" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Even Tavis Smiley agrees with me! "He's one of the worst hypocrites in the country" Yah Obama is the hypocrite not Romney the guys who created Obamacare, spent all of 2008 2009 pushing it as a national strategy and is now against it. HAHAHAHAHAHA you right wingers kill me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shady Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Yah Obama is the hypocrite I'm glad you agree, since you offered absolutely no defense of his practices. not Romney the guys who created Obamacare, spent all of 2008 2009 pushing it as a national strategy and is now against it. HAHAHAHAHAHA you right wingers kill me. No, Romney didn't create Obamacare. Obama did. And no, he didn't spend all of '08 and '09 pushing it. The similarity between the two is the mandate. But unforutunatly, Obamacare is much more than just the mandate. It's 2000+ pages of absolute garbage. Hence why the CBO has just release their report asserting that it's now going to cost twice as much as Obama said it would. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbg Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 Hence why the CBO has just release their report asserting that it's now going to cost twice as much as Obama said it would.I am against Obamacare. But to be fair, the jump in cost is as a result of the CBO estimates now including nine(9) years of program, not five (5). The CBO works in ten (10) year increments so the original estimates started in 2009. Obamacare kicks in during 2014, hence the increased estimates.It's still a garbage program. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 I'm glad you agree, since you offered absolutely no defense of his practices. No, Romney didn't create Obamacare. Obama did. And no, he didn't spend all of '08 and '09 pushing it. The similarity between the two is the mandate. But unforutunatly, Obamacare is much more than just the mandate. It's 2000+ pages of absolute garbage. Hence why the CBO has just release their report asserting that it's now going to cost twice as much as Obama said it would. You are just making it up as you go along. So many many lies Shady. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 ShadyNote: Mitt Romney - Against Individual Mandates Except When He's For Them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
punked Posted March 15, 2012 Report Share Posted March 15, 2012 ShadyNote: Mitt Romney - Against Individual Mandates Except When He's For Them Don't worry if Romney is for Mandates then Shady is to. Doesn't matter what either said in the past about them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dre Posted March 16, 2012 Report Share Posted March 16, 2012 I'm glad you agree, since you offered absolutely no defense of his practices. No, Romney didn't create Obamacare. Obama did. And no, he didn't spend all of '08 and '09 pushing it. The similarity between the two is the mandate. But unforutunatly, Obamacare is much more than just the mandate. It's 2000+ pages of absolute garbage. Hence why the CBO has just release their report asserting that it's now going to cost twice as much as Obama said it would. THe medical insurance companies created Obamacare. I doubt Obama has even read the thing, the jokers in congress and the senate never ready ANY of the shit they vote on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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